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[Okami Haundo]

So gosh-darn happy to see that Nintendo is doing well with the Switch. The numbers for ARMS are pretty darn surprising/awesome to me as well! Hope that means we'll definitely get a sequel.

 

[breakfuss]

I'm so happy for Nintendo, real talk. Never count them out haha.

 

[Yukinari]

I figure this is as good a thread as any. I just got a switch with Zelda. I have $40 in Amazon credit. Should I use that towards Mario Kart or a Pro controller?

Honestly once you use a pro controller youre never going back to the joycons.

I cant imagine playing games without it now.

 

[CharminUltra]

You know what they say, though. The bigger the sales, the harder the DOOM.

Any day now

 

[Deadpool_X]

So, Nintendoomed, right?

 

[NSESN]

Lookind at the DS and 3DS numbers, I saw something very interesting.
Pokemon DP 17.67 million
Pokemon BW 15.64 million
Pokemon HGSS 12.72 million
Total: 46.03 million (It's missing BW2 and Platinum)

Pokemon XY 16.15 million
Pokemon S&M 15.67 million
Pokemon ORAS 13.79 million
Total: 45.61 million (It's missing USUM and whatever they ship after this quater)

So basically Pokemon sales barely dropped despite 3DS selling less than half of DS. The same thing is true about Animal Crossing: WW 11.75 million vs NL 11.09 million.

 

[Prodigenius10]

Lookind at the DS and 3DS numbers, I saw something very interesting.
Pokemon DP 17.67 million
Pokemon BW 15.64 million
Pokemon HGSS 12.72 million
Total: 46.03 million (It's missing BW2 and Platinum)

Pokemon XY 16.15 million
Pokemon S&M 15.67 million
Pokemon ORAS 13.79 million
Total: 45.61 million (It's missing USUM and whatever they ship after this quater)

So basically Pokemon sales barely dropped despite 3DS selling less than half of DS. The same thing is true about Animal Crossing: WW 11.75 million vs NL 11.09 million.

It's just a fad, i'm sure there will be a decline any day now.

In all seriousness though i'm very happy for the success of the Switch and Nintendo in general. I'm a big pokemon fan and I'm always happy to see the franchise doing well.

Spoiler

Bought a DS and 3DS just for Pokemon and I know it'll happen again with Switch.

 

[paragonpro]

The success of Zelda is a wonderful thing.

The success of Mario Kart is a depressing thing.

I dissagree mario kart 8 was a great game that was stuck on a fledgling platform that not alot of people owned. Its success is a great thing, and if you already own the wii u version and a wii u, no one said you have to buy it again.

 

[Neiteio]

So, Nintendoomed, right?

 

[TwistedFreeze]

I figure this is as good a thread as any. I just got a switch with Zelda. I have $40 in Amazon credit. Should I use that towards Mario Kart or a Pro controller?

If you're looking for a game that you can play with your friends and don't have it on the Wii U like most people, then go for Mario Kart. It's always great for gatherings. If you're gonna mostly play alone, then get a Pro Controller

 

[The Technomancer]

Honestly I thought it would take ARMS over a year to kiss a million. If its already there I can't imagine how much of a juggernaut Splatoon is going to be

 

[ArchedThunder]

Lookind at the DS and 3DS numbers, I saw something very interesting.
Pokemon DP 17.67 million
Pokemon BW 15.64 million
Pokemon HGSS 12.72 million
Total: 46.03 million (It's missing BW2 and Platinum)

Pokemon XY 16.15 million
Pokemon S&M 15.67 million
Pokemon ORAS 13.79 million
Total: 45.61 million (It's missing USUM and whatever they ship after this quater)

So basically Pokemon sales barely dropped despite 3DS selling less than half of DS. The same thing is true about Animal Crossing: WW 11.75 million vs NL 11.09 million.

"Barely dropped"
They're up from Black and White.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Alright this may be deemed as a bold prediction.
I believe every major exclusive for the Switch will hit a million before 2018(besides Fire Emblem Warriors)
So Pokken, XC2, Mario and Rabbids, and Mario O will all hit.

 

[Liabe Brave]

The entire production roadmap would've been different with a holiday launch. You can't say shipments would've been the same as is because Nintendo's original orders would've been less conservative. It doesn't really matter that Nintendo can't adjust up due to NAND shortages now, the entire manufacturing schedule would've been different.

This doesn't really work as an answer. If the problem is component competition from Apple, that'll happen at some point in the flow regardless of where in the calendar you start. A new iPhone comes out each September, so Switch production in 2016 would run up against it just as in 2017.

What you (and z0m3le) are actually proposing is a comparison with a world where Switch production is not constrained by component supply. Yes, then numbers could be much higher. But most of the change wouldn't be due to when the machine became available.

 

[LordKano]

Alright this may be deemed as a bold prediction.
I believe every major exclusive for the Switch will hit a million before 2018(besides Fire Emblem Warriors)
So Pokken, XC2, Mario and Rabbids, and Mario O will all hit.

I said the exact same thing in this thread a few pages ago lol.

 

[OverturePT]

Good numbers.


Where's my Animal Crossing, though, Nintendo? I want to contribute to the insane numbers that the next AC will do.

 

[ArchedThunder]

Alright this may be deemed as a bold prediction.
I believe every major exclusive for the Switch will hit a million before 2018(besides Fire Emblem Warriors)
So Pokken, XC2, Mario and Rabbids, and Mario O will all hit.

Xenoblade is the only one I could see missing the 1 million mark.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

I said the exact same thing in this thread a few pages ago lol.

Well I be damn
and I think XCX2 will surprise since if I remember correctly didn't it sell 40k in France in a week as well as sold a quarter million in the US in a month? Plus the 130k from Japan and you got 420k so it did over 500k worldwide easily.
Should grow from those

 

[fredrancour]

Good numbers.


Where's my Animal Crossing, though, Nintendo? I want to contribute to the insane numbers that the next AC will do.

Lurking in holiday 2018 while gaf cries over Pokemon and prime 4 being 2019 games

 

[Fiendcode]

This doesn't really work as an answer. If the problem is component competition from Apple, that'll happen at some point in the flow regardless of where in the calendar you start. A new iPhone comes out each September, so Switch production in 2016 would run up against it just as in 2017.

What you (and z0m3le) are actually proposing is a comparison with a world where Switch production is not constrained by component supply. Yes, then numbers could be much higher. But most of the change wouldn't be due to when the machine became available.

No, quanties would be different because seasonal expectations are different and thus initial planning and orders would have been different. No one is arguing supply constraints would be lifted and yes Nintendo would've encountered the same issue in adjusting upwards post launch. But they still would have started with more supply initially.

 

[LordKano]

Well I be damn
and I think XCX2 will surprise since if I remember correctly didn't it sell 40k in France in a week as well as sold a quarter million in the US?
Should grow from those

XCX did 40k in two weeks right. It had TV ads and was overall pretty well received. Way bigger than XC1.
Not sure about the US numbers, I know it did 200k in its first NPD months.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

XCX did 40k in two weeks right. It had TV ads and was overall pretty well received. Way bigger than XC1.
Not sure about the US numbers, I know it did 200k in its first NPD months.

So yup it's gonna got a million.

 

[OverturePT]

Lurking in holiday 2018 while gaf cries over Pokemon and prime 4 being 2019 games

Sorry, GAF, I'll take that deal.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Alright this may be deemed as a bold prediction.
I believe every major exclusive for the Switch will hit a million before 2018(besides Fire Emblem Warriors)
So Pokken, XC2, Mario and Rabbids, and Mario O will all hit.

Depends when Xenoblade comes out imo.

 

[Hilarion]

Their forecast for the current fiscal year is still 10 million Switch hardware sales.

10 million in FY 2017 (April 2017-March 2018) + 2.7 million in FY 2016 (March 2016) = 12.7 million by March 31st of next year.

 

[KillerMan91]

Lookind at the DS and 3DS numbers, I saw something very interesting.
Pokemon DP 17.67 million
Pokemon BW 15.64 million
Pokemon HGSS 12.72 million
Total: 46.03 million (It's missing BW2 and Platinum)

Pokemon XY 16.15 million
Pokemon S&M 15.67 million
Pokemon ORAS 13.79 million
Total: 45.61 million (It's missing USUM and whatever they ship after this quater)

So basically Pokemon sales barely dropped despite 3DS selling less than half of DS. The same thing is true about Animal Crossing: WW 11.75 million vs NL 11.09 million.

Increase in west helped offset decrease in Japan. X&Y are first mainline games not hitting 5 million in Japan (ended at 4.55 million) and Moon & Sun will barely cross 4 million (3.85 million at the moment)

 

[Producer]

so, is that 4.7m number good? Dont really follow sales data just curious

 

[Red Devil]

Get ready for every single Wii U game to get ported.

Hopefully not.

Lurking in holiday 2018 while gaf cries over Pokemon and prime 4 being 2019 games

While Animal Crossing is big not sure if it'd be a holiday title, maybe not alone.

 

[oatmeal]

Really impressed with ARMS numbers.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Alright this may be deemed as a bold prediction.
I believe every major exclusive for the Switch will hit a million before 2018(besides Fire Emblem Warriors)
So Pokken, XC2, Mario and Rabbids, and Mario O will all hit.

Uh...XC2..a million BEFORE 2018? Hmmm...wait, when is the release date? Isn't it likely to be in November or December?

 

[Berordn]

Uh...XC2..a million BEFORE 2018? Hmmm...wait, when is the release date? Isn't it likely to be in November or December?

XC2 was officially delayed to 2018. wait maybe i dreamt that

 

[Red Devil]

Uh...XC2..a million BEFORE 2018? Hmmm...wait, when is the release date? Isn't it likely to be in November or December?

Either, at least after October 27th which is the release date of SMO.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

XC2 was officially delayed to 2018. wait maybe i dreamt that

Yeh, you did.

Either, at least after October 27th which is the release date of SMO.

Right, so I kinda don't see that happening...?

 

[Gurnlei]

Grats to Nintendo. Waiting on an Animal Crossing then I'll be joining the numbers.

 

[LegendofLex]

10 million in FY 2017 (April 2017-March 2018) + 2.7 million in FY 2016 (March 2016) = 12.7 million by March 31st of next year.

I know.

These people may not have understood the forecasts, though.

So its reasonable to expect it to sell 12 million for the fiscal year assuming they can boost production for the holidays, right?

Their forecast is 13 million.
Hopefully they can bump that up to around 15 million or so, but 13 would still be great.

Their forecast for the current fiscal year is still 10 million Switch hardware sales.

 

[whyamihere]

AHHHHHH

 

[fredrancour]

While Animal Crossing is big not sure if it'd be a holiday title, maybe not alone.

Didn't new leaf sell an enormous amount? It'd make the money even if there were no core hype.

I guess Mario maker remix works as a holiday headliner if it exists. Or the resm4shter, if that exists. Or both.

Fire emblem I expect to make it but I don't think it'll be a holiday game.

 

[LordKano]

Uh...XC2..a million BEFORE 2018? Hmmm...wait, when is the release date? Isn't it likely to be in November or December?

Most likely December. It's a front-loaded title anyway so it all depends on launch.

 

[Red Devil]

Right, so I kinda don't see that happening...?

Right, unless it's a huge hit it isn't hitting 1 million this year.

Didn't new leaf sell an enormous amount? It'd make the money even if there were no core hype.

It did, it came out in June and if I recall correctly it did way better in Japan though.

Any word on "Pikmin 4" anyway?

 

[Alex_Mexico]

Is the Switch outpacing the PS4? I know it's destroying the WiiU's first months thats for sure.

 

[Zedark]

Is the Switch outpacing the PS4? I know it's destroying the WiiU's first months thats for sure.

No, it's not. PS4 sold through 6 million in the same time period. Both were still supply constrained, so you can't tell which has the bigger initial demand.

 

[ArchedThunder]

Is the Switch outpacing the PS4? I know it's destroying the WiiU's first months thats for sure.

First 17 weeks.
PS4: 6.99m (holiday)
GBA: 6.52m (spring)
Wii: 5.43m (holiday)
XB1: 4.92m (holiday)
NDS: 4.90m (holiday)
SWI: 4.70m (spring)
3DS: 4.42m (spring)
If the stock issues weren't so bad it would probably at least be outpacing Wii.

 

[Delio]

Lookind at the DS and 3DS numbers, I saw something very interesting.
Pokemon DP 17.67 million
Pokemon BW 15.64 million
Pokemon HGSS 12.72 million
Total: 46.03 million (It's missing BW2 and Platinum)

Pokemon XY 16.15 million
Pokemon S&M 15.67 million
Pokemon ORAS 13.79 million
Total: 45.61 million (It's missing USUM and whatever they ship after this quater)

So basically Pokemon sales barely dropped despite 3DS selling less than half of DS. The same thing is true about Animal Crossing: WW 11.75 million vs NL 11.09 million.

You know I always thought HGSS sold more than ORAS but this proves me wrong. Interesting.

 

[jts]

PS4: 6.99m (holiday)
GBA: 6.52m (spring)
Wii: 5.43m (holiday)
XB1: 4.92m (holiday)
NDS: 4.90m (holiday)
SWI: 4.70m (spring)
3DS: 4.42m (spring)
If it weren't for the stock issues it would at least be outpacing Wii.

Wii also had stock issues. Big ones. Wiis were legitimately money in the bank for people owning them or flipping them, for months.

 

[xandaca]

First 17 weeks.
PS4: 6.99m (holiday)
GBA: 6.52m (spring)
Wii: 5.43m (holiday)
XB1: 4.92m (holiday)
NDS: 4.90m (holiday)
SWI: 4.70m (spring)
3DS: 4.42m (spring)
If the stock issues weren't so bad it would probably at least be outpacing Wii.

So it's mostly doing well relative to the Wii U, compared to other consoles it's fine but nothing special (roughly in line with XB1)?

 

[ArchedThunder]

Wii also had stock issues. Big ones. Wiis were legitimately money in the bank for people owning them or flipping them, for months.

Same with Switch, what I mean is that if they had enough stock it would be outpacing Wii, Switch's stock issues are much worse than Wii's.

So it's mostly doing well relative to the Wii U, compared to other consoles it's fine but nothing special (roughly in line with XB1)?

It's doing very well, especially considering the stock issues. The stock is the only thing holding it back right now.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

So it's mostly doing well relative to the Wii U, compared to other consoles it's fine but nothing special (roughly in line with XB1)?

Remember Switch launched in a non-Holiday month.

 

[Fiendcode]

No, it's not. PS4 sold through 6 million in the same time period. Both were still supply constrained, so you can't tell which has the bigger initial demand.

PS4 supply constraints had generally lifted by Feb 2014 and it had historic launch supplies. Not really comparable to the Switch situation at all constraint wise.

 

[BD1]

So it's mostly doing well relative to the Wii U, compared to other consoles it's fine but nothing special (roughly in line with XB1)?

The time period is whats most impressive to me. XB1, PS4, Wii, etc launched in Q4.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Switch is at 4.7 million 3 months in and you are concerned that they may not be able to ship 5.3 million more units in 9 months?

Your numbers are all confused, and I'm not concerned. Switch is at 4.7m in four months, not three. Nintendo's current projection is not 5.3m more, but that they'll ship 8m in the next nine months. I think they'll hit slightly above that. In a best-case scenario perhaps they could stretch to as many as 11m.

But even that highly optimistic value would not put them behind just PS4 and Wii launch-aligned. It would put Switch behind GBA, PS4, Wii, and 3DS. It'd be above DS, but I predict during the next fiscal year DS would pass Switch again and Switch would pass 3DS again.

Switch will pass Xbox One if they just hit the current target.

The component is constraint because not enough manufacturers produce it so you have to wait your turn for your order to be filled. It isn't that there is like a physical limitation on material. So the basis here is that if you were going to launch in the holidays you would stockpile earlier and your order volume would be significantly larger.... They can't order more volume because?

We don't need to know because why. It's simply clear that it's impossible to order more in the same amount of time, or else Nintendo would be doing it and not be so supply-constrained. The only option, therefore, is evidently to stockpile for longer as you say.

But there's a limit to how long before launch you can start. A couple months more than usual may be okay, but further than that and you're starting to affect how current the internal hardware design can be. And storage of unsold product incurs additional costs, too. A few extra months of production at current Switch levels would move the needle a little, but then you'd immediately be back to the current situation.