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Switch at 4.7 million | ARMS: 1.18 Million, Zelda: 3.92M, Mario Kart 3.54M

ghibli99

Member
Wow, those attach rates for Zelda and particularly MK8 (given how many people already bought it on Wii U (and probably the DLC packs) vs. BOTW on Wii U) are quite impressive. Would love to know how all the digital stuff has been selling (which is probably somewhere in this thread).
 
Same with Switch, what I mean is that if they had enough stock it would be outpacing Wii, Switch's stock issues are much worse than Wii's.
.


In Japan? probably yes. Outside of Japan: Wut? Switch isn't even close to Wii shortages. For example german amazon has had Switch in stock for week now and Germany is Nintendos second biggest market in Europe.
 
That's an insane attach rate for both Zelda and MK. Would be interesting to know attach rates for Mario 64 and other high profile launch games at this point after launch.

I think Mario 64 has 30% when you look at the whole history of the N64.
Nintendo sold 11 mio copies and a little over 33 consoles worldwide.
 

UltimaKilo

Gold Member
I was happy to see the Switch selling well. Maybe it will attract more 3rd parties.

Also cool to see that the 3D'S is still selling well and could see a boost in sales this year due to the 2D'S XL.
 
We don't need to know because why. It's simply clear that it's impossible to order more in the same amount of time, or else Nintendo would be doing it and not be so supply-constrained. The only option, therefore, is evidently to stockpile for longer as you say.

Eh no. Just because they can't order more now that doesn't mean if they planned a different launch period they couldn't. I don't know why you're not understanding this. When I say stock pile all I mean is sit on a larger order shipment. Again, unless their actual order volumes are being capped by suppliers there iz literally no reason why they cant order larger quantities of units.
 
No it is not.

God no, my sister couldn't buy me a Wii until November the year after it launched.

[/B]

In Japan? probably yes. Outside of Japan: Wut? Switch isn't even close to Wii shortages. For example german amazon has had Switch in stock for week now and Germany is Nintendos second biggest market in Europe.

They can't make anywhere near enough to meet demand because of the NAND chip shortage, the fact that demand is far higher than what they can supply is what's keeping it below Wii right now.
In the US the only "reliable" way to get one is to buy a marked up scalped unit.
 

BFIB

Member
Very impressive. I absolutely adore this console.

Compared to Wii U at this stage of its lifecycle, how big of a sales jump has the Switch had?
 

lyrick

Member
[/B]

In Japan? probably yes. Outside of Japan: Wut? Switch isn't even close to Wii shortages. For example german amazon has had Switch in stock for week now and Germany is Nintendos second biggest market in Europe.

Doesn't Nintendo still lump all of Europe in with "Rest of World" or "Other" when it comes to their financials?

Every Sale counts and all... but Switch availability in a single country within region that they've never really done well in isn't really a great way to judge their supply chain.
 
They can't make anywhere near enough to meet demand because of the NAND chip shortage, the fact that demand is far higher than what they can supply is what's keeping it below Wii right now.
In the US the only "reliable" way to get one is to buy a marked up scalped unit.

Doesn't Nintendo still lump all of Europe in with "Rest of World" or "Other" when it comes to their financials?

Every Sale counts and all... but Switch availability in a single country within region that they've never really done well in isn't really a great way to judge their supply chain.

When your console has available stock in one of your biggest markets for weeks after few months since launch you don't have as big shortages as Wii had. Wii was sold out absolutely everywhere during its first months. US Wii shortages ended in 2009
 
Alright this may be deemed as a bold prediction.
I believe every major exclusive for the Switch will hit a million before 2018(besides Fire Emblem Warriors)
So Pokken, XC2, Mario and Rabbids, and Mario O will all hit.

Yeah I think this is right.

Would be cool for a Xenoblade game to finally hit a million. Though I don't think it'll hit a million BEFORE 2018, but certainly eventually.
 
They can't make anywhere near enough to meet demand because of the NAND chip shortage, the fact that demand is far higher than what they can supply is what's keeping it below Wii right now.
In the US the only "reliable" way to get one is to buy a marked up scalped unit.
And if Wii could have met it's demand, this discussion wouldn't exist. Switch is doing well, let's not get crazy.
 

lyrick

Member
When your console has available stock in one of your biggest markets for weeks after few months since launch you don't have as big shortages as Wii had. Wii was sold out absolutely everywhere during its first months. US Wii shortages ended in 2009

Nintendo has three Markets

- Americas
- The Island nation in which they have their HQ
- Other

The Switch is sold out in the first two
 
When your console has available stock in one of your biggest markets for weeks after few months since launch you don't have as big shortages as Wii had. Wii was sold out absolutely everywhere during its first months. US Wii shortages ended in 2009
Germany on its own is a fairly small part of Nintendo's market, especially compared to the whole European region and of course the Americas. In the US and Japan the Switch is completely out of stock and I know that it's completely out of stock in plenty of European countries as well.
And if Wii could have met it's demand, this discussion wouldn't exist. Switch is doing well, let's not get crazy.

I never said demand was higher than Wii, I said the stock situation is worse, they can't make as many Switchs as they were able to make Wiis.
 
Germany on its own is a fairly small part of Nintendo's market, especially compared to the whole European region and of course the Americas. In the US and Japan the Switch is completely out of stock and I know that it's completely out of stock in plenty of European countries as well.


I never said demand was higher than Wii, I said the stock situation is worse, they can't make as many Switchs as they were able to make Wiis.

A very important distinction and totally right.

?. I don't see how it matter at all how much you ship when it comes to shortages. It's all about demand that determines how hard the device is to get and how bad shortages are. Wii was harder to find than Switch while at the same time it had shipped more units.
 
?. I don't see how it matter at all how much you ship when it comes to shortages. It's all about demand behind those shortages that determines how hard the device is to get and how bad shortages are. Wii was harder to find than Switch while at the same time it had shipped more units.

Your last sentence is exactly what he said. It was harder to find due to higher demand, but they were still able to put out more Wii consoles during that time than pretty much any other console. Hence the STOCK SITUATION is worse with the Switch. They are severely limited in how many units they can produce.
 

JayCB

Member
That seems like a super respectable number for Arms. I wasn't huge on what I played of it, but I'm glad that it seems to be doing well, the world and the characters make me want to see more of that franchise in the future.
 
That's nuts. In literally a third of a year, it's done almost half of what the Wii U did in its lifetime.

Not really. Wii U was a shit concept, executed with the panache of a bowl of shit and its first 6 months was a black hole in terms of software.

Switch on the other hand is a handsome devil, has a great concept that actually works well and has some stellar games out of the gate.
 
Your last sentence is exactly what he said. It was harder to find due to higher demand, but they were still able to put out more Wii consoles during that time than pretty much any other console. Hence the STOCK SITUATION is worse with the Switch. They are severely limited in how many units they can produce.

Well I guess we are then arguing only about semantics. To me you can have worse stock situation even with bigger shipments if the demand behind the device is also way bigger. Wii was harder to find so it had bigger stock issues.
 
?. I don't see how it matter at all how much you ship when it comes to shortages. It's all about demand that determines how hard the device is to get and how bad shortages are. Wii was harder to find than Switch while at the same time it had shipped more units.

There are two ways to measure how bad shortages are.

The first is how far shipments are lagging behind demand. This is obviously what you're talking about, and it's an area where Switch is struggling even compared to Wii. Nintendo isn't producing enough units to satisfy demand.

The second is how difficult it is to produce and ship higher quantities to better satisfy demand. This is also a problem for Switch, and it's a problem for Switch that's also considerably worse than it was for Wii. Nintendo is having trouble bringing up their shipment numbers.

The first problem is a market problem; it's about there being demand that Nintendo isn't meeting.

The second problem is a manufacturing problem; it's about issues on the unit production side that keep Nintendo from being able to increase shipments, and it's the root cause of the first problem.

The person you're replying to is talking about #2.

Surprised about Arms. Is it really that good?

I have a Switch and thought I'd sit that one out. Perhaps I should reconsider.

Arms is one of those "breath of fresh air" games, but unlike Splatoon I'm not sure I'd say it's "really that good."
 

Instro

Member
No it is not.

Actually I might inclined to agree with this being worse than the Wii. Big restocks for the Wii happened almost every week, it just sold through them. After the 2-3 months it was more reasonable to find one, and throughout it's launch there were clear days when you could lineup to try and get one. Comparitivley restocking on the Switch has been scattered at best, and seemingly very low units outside of times close to major game launches.

I don't mean to say it would be doing Wii numbers or better, but I do think the supply situation is one of the worst I've seen, considering how far we are from launch now and it's still very difficult to get one, particularly when you consider that this situation is likely to continue through the rest of the year given the ongoing NAND issues.
 

Hugstable

Banned
Surprised about Arms. Is it really that good?

I have a Switch and thought I'd sit that one out. Perhaps I should reconsider.

I find it really fun, though I also enjoy fighting the AI in Grand Prix and trying to improve through the difficulty levels. It really shines in Local Play, and I find the Party Mode Online stuff pretty fun alot of the time. I was undecided on the game til like last week, picked it up and surprisingly have been really enjoying it. I'll probably be playing the Grand Prix/Arcade style mode for awhile since I like playing all the characters
 
Is there really a world where there are 600,000 copies of ARMS just sitting on shelves? Really?
Nahhh... Just some people that can't handle the success that ARMS is having. Just check the ARMS sales prediction thread, is really hard to eat that amount of crow. ARMS is easily above 1 million right now. The next quarter is going to be above 2 million, and still you are going to see more people in denial mode.
 
Surprised about Arms. Is it really that good?

I have a Switch and thought I'd sit that one out. Perhaps I should reconsider.

If you're on the fence, definitely wait till more DLC/patches are out. The core game is fun but if you don't have it yet you might as well hold off till it has more meat on its bones.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Really hope we get another 1,2 Switch.

Haven't had this much fun with a party game in years. Years. This one will have a long shelf life for sure, but still a great use of the new hardware and so much potentional for more eye-contact mini experiences for up to 20 players.
 
Actually I might inclined to agree with this being worse than the Wii. Big restocks for the Wii happened almost every week, it just sold through them. After the 2-3 months it was more reasonable to find one, and throughout it's launch there were clear days when you could lineup to try and get one. Comparitivley restocking on the Switch has been scattered at best, and seemingly very low units outside of times close to major game launches.

I don't mean to say it would be doing Wii numbers or better, but I do think the supply situation is one of the worst I've seen, considering how far we are from launch now and it's still very difficult to get one, particularly when you consider that this situation is likely to continue through the rest of the year given the ongoing NAND issues.

To put a point on the stock issue, Nintendo shipped 1.12 million Wii units to the Americas between December 2006 and March 2007, Wii's second quarter on the market. Worldwide, they shipped 2.63 million Wiis during that time.

During Switch's second quarter on the market, Nintendo shipped 0.75 million Switch units to the Americas. Worldwide, they shipped 1.97 million Switches during that time.

That's a more than 32% shortfall in the Americas, and a 25% shortfall worldwide.
 

Belker

Member
I've seen a new Switch advert on TV. As I suspected, Nintendo are specifically targeting the UK summer holiday market. Mentions going on holiday with the family, pictures of people playing in tents and cars, kids smiling etc as dad drives.

It also has a prominent star rating review from The Sun, which is a (firmly) tabloid paper and highest selling daily newspaper. (Weirdly, the advert seemed quite cheaply made. )

I'm trying to figure out if the stock situation fed into its production. Certainly strange to run such particular adverts when, presumably, they'd know they couldn't fulfil orders.
 
Really hope we get another 1,2 Switch.

Haven't had this much fun with a party game in years. Years. This one will have a long shelf life for sure, but still a great use of the new hardware and so much potentional for more eye-contact mini experiences for up to 20 players.

I was thinking about buying it.

What are your favorite mini games?
 

King_Moc

Banned
Man, people have really forgotten how bad the Wii stock situation was. With the Switch, when they arrive in stock at places like Amazon, they're often there for a few hours before they're gone. With the Wii it was minutes if you were lucky. And they were supplying a hell of a lot more if them. That thing was supply constrained until after the 2009 holidays. If you think the Switch's situation is comparable, then you're remembering it wrong.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Is there really a world where there are 600,000 copies of ARMS just sitting on shelves? Really?

I went looking for neon joy cons all over NYC over the weekend and the Switch shelves are barren. There were some pro controllers and cables and shit, but not much else. Even when you looked at the games, all the first party stuff was sold out.
 

jts

...hate me...
Man, people have really forgotten how bad the Wii stock situation was. With the Switch, when they arrive in stock at places like Amazon, they're often there for a few hours before they're gone. With the Wii it was minutes if you were lucky. And they were supplying a hell of a lot more if them. That thing was supply constrained until after the 2009 holidays. If you think the Switch's situation is comparable, then you're remembering it wrong.
There were people buying them at $400, $500 no problem. Fathers, mothers, just regular people. They needed it. They needed that Wii Sports. This kept going for a long time.

The Switch looks like a success but the Wii was just a cultural phenomenon like I never saw. Also why it wasn't sustainable for business to stay that way.
 

z0m3le

Banned
Your numbers are all confused, and I'm not concerned. Switch is at 4.7m in four months, not three. Nintendo's current projection is not 5.3m more, but that they'll ship 8m in the next nine months. I think they'll hit slightly above that. In a best-case scenario perhaps they could stretch to as many as 11m.

But even that highly optimistic value would not put them behind just PS4 and Wii launch-aligned. It would put Switch behind GBA, PS4, Wii, and 3DS. It'd be above DS, but I predict during the next fiscal year DS would pass Switch again and Switch would pass 3DS again.

Switch will pass Xbox One if they just hit the current target.


We don't need to know because why. It's simply clear that it's impossible to order more in the same amount of time, or else Nintendo would be doing it and not be so supply-constrained. The only option, therefore, is evidently to stockpile for longer as you say.

But there's a limit to how long before launch you can start. A couple months more than usual may be okay, but further than that and you're starting to affect how current the internal hardware design can be. And storage of unsold product incurs additional costs, too. A few extra months of production at current Switch levels would move the needle a little, but then you'd immediately be back to the current situation.

This is exactly what I'm saying and about what I expect too. They started full production of switch sometime between late October and November last year for a launch in March. That is about 4 months of production to hit the 2.7m units they sold in March, however, what I'm suggesting is exactly what you're saying, that for a November launch, they start full production in March 2016 to fill a larger holiday order at the same ~22k a day, over those extra 3 months is 2 million more switch devices ready for launch. The switch retail box is about half the size of the Wii U one, so the initial 3m they sold in the wii u launch would take more room than the ~5m switch units they could have sold between black Friday and the end of the calendar year last year, I'm not saying they ever increase production, I'm saying they start earlier for a holiday launch, that gives us up to ~7 million consoles in the first 4 months based on a larger initial shipment.
 
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