Eh, the difference this time (between this and the Wii) is that the power gap isn't anywhere near as big, so you won't need a "fun" version, as it can fairly easily handle full versions, though obviously with downgrades. I fully expect Assassins Creed to be happening already, regardless of sales, and you'll likely see CoD too. The other games like Destiny, Battlefront, etc. will all depend on whether or not this sells gangbusters during the year.
The "staggered" launch releases may really help achieve that consistency.