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[Angst]

The electric Golf represents exactly the lack of confidence the OEMs have/had in EVs, as it had next to 0 marketing and is literally just a Golf with batteries tacked on. Like the i3, it also lacks range. And the price premium vs the gasoline model.
The i3 wasi/is priced way to high for its performance and range. BMW are used to, with premium models, be priced higher than the concurrence for comparable vehicle classes; the problem for them being that there is no market for small luxury EVs right now (or at least there wasn't at the time), the market is/was split between the high end big mdoel (Model S) and low end small model (Leaf/Zoe), both of which were already small markets, with arguably not a lot of room for high end small EV.

I honestly never heard of the Ionic (well, shortly here on GAF), is it even sold in the EU?

The ionic is sold here in Norway, not sure about the EU. Norway is of course an outlier when it comes to EV adoption.

 

[Neo C.]

This was my point. Once the powertrain playing field is levelled, what have they got over other OEMs?

I don't think they are worried about the competition, most car makers are not fully commited to EVs because they still want to sell their ICEs.

 

[nekkid]

I don't think they are worried about the competition, most car makers are not fully commited to EVs because they still want to sell their ICEs.

I feel like I'm the only person who grasps the concept of the hypothetical.

 

[deadduck]

Teslas have lots of emissions from brake and tyre wear.

Not sure if serious, but it is common for Tesla's to be over 70k and still on their OG pads due to regen.

Once the powertrain playing field is levelled, what have they got over other OEMs?

10 years of data
Big existing fleet
Older cars that can compete with software update
The supercharger network (no one can compete with this)
The battery supply chain
Battery recycling for other products
Powerwall and integrated charging products

 

[Doodis]

Honest question - have they even pushed the industry forward?

Volkswagen says yes: https://www.google.com/amp/s/electr...nd-ceo-sees-tesla-as-vws-main-competitor/amp/

 

[h1nch]

This was my point. Once the powertrain playing field is levelled, what have they got over other OEMs?

Credit where credit is due, they've pushed the industry forward. But I can see their position in the market shrinking rapidly in a few years, where my guess is that they'll shift focus onto the battery tech for third parties.

"When Nokia/Saumsung/Blackberry catch up to the iPhone and level the playing field, Apple is gonna be in trouble!" - someone in 2007, probably.

In this hypothetical scenario, I'm not sure why it is a given that people will abandon Tesla's products. Even in a level playing field it's not inconceivable that buyers would still choose a Tesla over the competition, especially if they continue to innovate and deliver a great customer experience.

 

[DasPenguin]

The electric Golf represents exactly the lack of confidence the OEMs have/had in EVs, as it had next to 0 marketing and is literally just a Golf with batteries tacked on. Like the i3, it also lacks range. And the price premium vs the gasoline model.
The i3 wasi/is priced way to high for its performance and range. BMW are used to, with premium models, be priced higher than the concurrence for comparable vehicle classes; the problem for them being that there is no market for small luxury EVs right now (or at least there wasn't at the time), the market is/was split between the high end big mdoel (Model S) and low end small model (Leaf/Zoe), both of which were already small markets, with arguably not a lot of room for high end small EV.

I honestly never heard of the Ionic (well, shortly here on GAF), is it even sold in the EU?

Electric Golf with longer range and quick charge will be out in 2-3 years. "Just a Golf" that is EV with some range will sell like crazy. And even Golf has a better interior than the Model 3. It will also undercut Model 3 (at least in Europe) in price.

 

[gogogow]

The electric Golf represents exactly the lack of confidence the OEMs have/had in EVs, as it had next to 0 marketing and is literally just a Golf with batteries tacked on. Like the i3, it also lacks range. And the price premium vs the gasoline model.
The i3 wasi/is priced way to high for its performance and range. BMW are used to, with premium models, be priced higher than the concurrence for comparable vehicle classes; the problem for them being that there is no market for small luxury EVs right now (or at least there wasn't at the time), the market is/was split between the high end big mdoel (Model S) and low end small model (Leaf/Zoe), both of which were already small markets, with arguably not a lot of room for high end small EV.

I honestly never heard of the Ionic (well, shortly here on GAF), is it even sold in the EU?

It's the Ioniq and yes, it's sold in the EU for a, imo, very competitive price at €33.000. It has a radius of 280km on paper, so probably around 200km in reality.

 

[DasPenguin]

"When Nokia/Saumsung/Blackberry catch up to the iPhone and level the playing field, Apple is gonna be in trouble!" - someone in 2007, probably.

In this hypothetical scenario, I'm not sure why it is a given that people will abandon Tesla's products. Even in a level playing field it's not inconceivable that buyers would still choose a Tesla over the competition, especially if they continue to innovate and deliver a great customer experience.

You can't compare a car and a phone. Apple basically invented a new phone. Tesla hasn't done that. Companies like Audi, BMW and Mercedes have a loyal fan base, so if they can buy an EV car with better interior, better styling and better driving characteristics, it's not really that difficult to see them sticking with brands that they know. I really don't see Tesla being at the same level with competitors when it comes to those things.

 

[nekkid]

"When Nokia/Saumsung/Blackberry catch up to the iPhone and level the playing field, Apple is gonna be in trouble!" - someone in 2007, probably.

In this hypothetical scenario, I'm not sure why it is a given that people will abandon Tesla's products. Even in a level playing field it's not inconceivable that buyers would still choose a Tesla over the competition, especially if they continue to innovate and deliver a great customer experience.

I see your point, but even you must admit to the false equivalency on display here.

 

[h1nch]

You can't compare a car and a phone. Apple basically invented a new phone. Tesla hasn't done that. Companies like Audi, BMW and Mercedes have a loyal fan base, so if they can buy an EV car with better interior, better styling and better driving characteristics, it's not really that difficult to see them sticking with brands that they know. I really don't see Tesla being at the same level with competitors when it comes to those things.

Tesla has a pretty loyal fanbase. The rest of what you said is subjective. For example I think the new Merc C-Class is a freakishly ugly piece of shit, and it's nowhere near as fun to drive as a similarly-equipped F30. But I'm sure others may differently.

 

[gwarm01]

You can't compare a car and a phone. Apple basically invented a new phone. Tesla hasn't done that. Companies like Audi, BMW and Mercedes have a loyal fan base, so if they can buy an EV car with better interior, better styling and better driving characteristics, it's not really that difficult to see them sticking with brands that they know. I really don't see Tesla being at the same level with competitors when it comes to those things.

You've got a good point. I've been a fan of Audi's styling for years, and even know I flirt with the idea of getting a new TT or A5 instead of the Model 3. I'm sticking with the Tesla because I think it'll prove to be a better purchase, and I do love the style of the car. However, 10 years from now if everything else is equal.. it's hard to say.

Tesla is positioning itself to be a major supplier of batteries in the future. Even if its cars remain a boutique product for enthusiasts, they have an important role in the future of EV production.

 

[Jisgsaw]

Electric Golf with longer range and quick charge will be out in 2-3 years. "Just a Golf" that is EV with some range will sell like crazy. And even Golf has a better interior than the Model 3. It will also undercut Model 3 (at least in Europe) in price.

The operative words being "in 2-3 years". IF it had/when it will have a decent range, I'll agree with you. But the first iteration of the eGolf was an half assed effort, because of the lack of confidence in EV of the direction, which was my entire point.
VW will have no other choice than to believe in EVs due to dieselgate, at least one good thing coming from that fiasco.

You can't compare a car and a phone. Apple basically invented a new phone. Tesla hasn't done that. Companies like Audi, BMW and Mercedes have a loyal fan base, so if they can buy an EV car with better interior, better styling and better driving characteristics, it's not really that difficult to see them sticking with brands that they know. I really don't see Tesla being at the same level with competitors when it comes to those things.

Tesla doesn't see themselves doing it either, which is why they are marketing / investing / developing their HMI and autopilot, which aren't traditional strong suits of OEMs.

 

[KeRaSh]

Electric Golf with longer range and quick charge will be out in 2-3 years. "Just a Golf" that is EV with some range will sell like crazy. And even Golf has a better interior than the Model 3. It will also undercut Model 3 (at least in Europe) in price.

Oh, you meant the I.D. Concept where they compared the hypothetical NEFZ range to the much less forgiving EPA rated range of the Model 3? We'll see what comes out of those claims in a few years but until then half a million Model 3s will be on the road.

The internet can be really weird sometimes. Here we have the old guard announcing their EV projects left and right without having anything to show for until 2019 or 2020 and everyone is already pronouncing Tesla's time of death. In every other industry people would call thise announced cars vaporware but for some reason legacy car makers get tons of free passes.
People are also very sure that these car makers get their true first gen EV perfectly right on their first try.
That's also not a given if you ask me.
Tesla is here to stay and legacy car makers catching up is not going to change that. They will simply coexist like all the car makes have for the past decades. Everyone's preferences are different. That's why we have BMW, Mercedes and Daimler. Why would Tesla go under when the others catch up but we have so many different ICE makers that don't magically kill each other because someone else comes along?

On a different note (and feel free to take this with a grain of salt) I've talked to a buddy of mine who's an engineer at Porsche last night. Apparently they are currently benchmarking Tesla Model S and Xs to speed up their own drivetrain development. Audi has also been reverse engineering some Tesla tech the last two years.
I think that's pretty interesting.

 

[Jisgsaw]

On a different note (and feel free to take this with a grain of salt) I've talked to a buddy of mine who's an engineer at Porsche last night. Apparently they are currently benchmarking Tesla Model S and Xs to speed up their own drivetrain development. Audi has also been reverse engineering some Tesla tech the last two years.
I think that's pretty interesting.

That's pretty normal. You have whole departments at each OEMs dedicated only to reverse engineer every competitor models. As Tesla is the de-facto benchmark for EVs, it stands to reason they would do this.
Heck, even my engineering service company bought a Model S to dissect it a couple years back.

 

[nekkid]

That's pretty normal. You have whole departments at each OEMs dedicated only to reverse engineer every competitor models. As Tesla is the de-facto benchmark for EVs, it stands to reason they would do this.
Heck, even my engineering service company bought a Model S to dissect it a couple years back.

I worked at one OEM who used to (way before my time, I hasten to add) take apart rental cars, evaluate, then rebuild them before sending them back!

They now either buy them, or they openly exchange their own cars with the competition.

 

[h1nch]

I see your point, but even you must admit to the false equivalency on display here.

I had a feeling you'd say that, and it's a fair point. Cars != Phones.

However I would argue that both fall under the category of consumer products. People make product-buying decisions for generally the same set of reasons, usually some combination of price/features/design prefs. I also see a lot of the same disruptive patterns on display here that we've seen in other industries, particularly smartphones.

Plus for whatever reason, Tesla seems to attract a similar-level of fanboyism that I see with Apple (i.e. people lining up outside Tesla stores just to preorder a car they haven't yet seen)

Oh, you meant the I.D. Concept where they compared the hypothetical NEFZ range to the much less forgiving EPA rated range of the Model 3? We'll see what comes out of those claims in a few years but until then half a million Model 3s will be on the road.

The internet can be really weird sometimes. Here we have the old guard announcing their EV projects left and right without having anything to show for until 2019 or 2020 and everyone is already pronouncing Tesla's time of death. In every other industry people would call thise announced cars vaporware but for some reason legacy car makers get tons of free passes.
People are also very sure that these car makers get their true first gen EV perfectly right on their first try.
That's also not a given if you ask me.
Tesla is here to stay and legacy car makers catching up is not going to change that. They will simply coexist like all the car makes have for the past decades. Everyone's preferences are different. That's why we have BMW, Mercedes and Daimler. Why would Tesla go under when the others catch up but we have so many different ICE makers that don't magically kill each other because someone else comes along?

I agree with this post. I see a clear path forward for Tesla to remain a successful car company in perpetuity alongside existing OEMs, even if the competition can catch up to them. In my view Tesla's success or failure rests almost entirely on their ability to execute.

 

[nekkid]

I had a feeling you'd say that, and it's a fair point. Cars != Phones.

However I would argue that both fall under the category of consumer products. People make product-buying decisions for generally the same set of reasons, usually some combination of price/features/design prefs. I also see a lot of the same disruptive patterns on display here that we've seen in other industries, particularly smartphones.

Plus for whatever reason, Tesla seems to attract a similar-level of fanboyism that I see with Apple (i.e. people lining up outside Tesla stores just to preorder a car they haven't yet seen)

It was less about the choice of device as it was the equivalence of market leadership.

Tesla isn't even the biggest EV manufacturer, nevermind automotive manufacturer.

 

[mcfrank]

This whole debate reminds me so much of Apple VS Android. Apple makes the best phone but doesn't have the highest volume. Tesla will make the aspirant electric car but others will eventually surpass them on EV volume.

 

[mf.luder]

This whole debate reminds me so much of Apple VS Android. Apple makes the best phone but doesn't have the highest volume. Tesla will make the aspirant electric car but others will eventually surpass them on EV volume.

And that is Tesla’s objective, right? I mean obviously they want market share but building the grid, chargers, solar tiles and an electric lifestyle is their end game. To make the world a better place.

 

[mcfrank]

And that is Tesla’s objective, right? I mean obviously they want market share but building the grid, chargers, solar tiles and an electric lifestyle is their end game. To make the world a better place.

Yeah I think so.

 

[mcfrank]

Trunk with the seats put down. Looks perfect for dogs and good amount of cargo room.

 

[Graphics Horse]

This whole debate reminds me so much of Apple VS Android. Apple makes the best phone but doesn't have the highest volume. Tesla will make the aspirant electric car but others will eventually surpass them on EV volume.

I was thinking Oculus Rift

 

[deadduck]

Permanent magnet in model3 according to epa. Interesting.

 

[DasPenguin]

Tesla has a pretty loyal fanbase. The rest of what you said is subjective. For example I think the new Merc C-Class is a freakishly ugly piece of shit, and it's nowhere near as fun to drive as a similarly-equipped F30. But I'm sure others may differently.

For sure they have. It's just that the other manufacturers have a lot bigger fanbase and decades of experience manufacturing cars.

Merc is the "old people's car", but I don't know how you can call it ugly. F30 hasn't aged all that well and the interior is horrendous compared to the comp, but they are up for a refresh soon. Driving characteristics they do well, but it's not as clear cut as it used to be.

Personally I feel like BMW has lost their fastball when it comes to styling. Every new model is worse than the one it replaces. New 5 series is meh at best and the buck tooth version (those kidneys look hideous) of the new X3 is the worst looking crossover in the segment (imo).

 

[nekkid]

For sure they have. It's just that the other manufacturers have a lot bigger fanbase and decades of experience manufacturing cars.

Merc is the "old people's car", but I don't know how you can call it ugly. F30 hasn't aged all that well and the interior is horrendous compared to the comp, but they are up for a refresh soon. Driving characteristics they do well, but it's not as clear cut as it used to be.

Personally I feel like BMW has lost their fastball when it comes to styling. Every new model is worse than the one it replaces. New 5 series is meh at best and the buck tooth version (those kidneys look hideous) of the new X3 is the worst looking crossover in the segment (imo).

I wouldn't say Mercedes is for old people anymore. That's reserved for Jags.

And while the X3 isn't nice, the new 5-series is gorgeous. That'll probably be my next car.

 

[Ethics Gradient]

The German car makers are really bad at this transition and would do everything to keep making ICE cars.

I dig the Audi virtual cockpit though. The Google Earth maps are pretty nice to look at while driving. The A3 etron needs more e-range but what's nice is there is no range anxiety whatsoever.

 

[Valkyr Junkie]

Permanent magnet in model3 according to epa. Interesting.

And regenerative braking on the front (non-drive) axle too. Doubly interesting.

 

[duderon]

Tesla's lead will be more obvious next year when they are selling hundreds of thousands of Model 3s, while the other manufacturers are still announcing 2020 EVs. Only other big EV release is the new Leaf and it looks like it may be less than 200 miles on a charge.

 

[gwarm01]

I wouldn't say Mercedes is for old people anymore. That's reserved for Jags.

And while the X3 isn't nice, the new 5-series is gorgeous. That'll probably be my next car.

Hey, hey, hey! Easy! The F-Type is not a car for old people.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Tesla's lead will be more obvious next year when they are selling hundreds of thousands of Model 3s, while the other manufacturers are still announcing 2020 EVs. Only other big EV release is the new Leaf and it looks like it may be less than 200 miles on a charge.

I would argue that if Tesla actually reaches their planned 10,000/week rate by the end of 2018 and are really making ~500,000 cars a year, and by then the new Gigafactories are announced and being constructed in China and Europe, then Tesla's lead will be at that point truly and observably insurmountable.

The economic moat is already established. Gigafactory 1 is operating and will be able to supply fully 50% of the entire world's lithium-ion battery capacity by next year and the Supercharger network is already being built out worldwide. There's already almost no chance for the incumbents to catch up, it's just not obvious yet. Next year, it will be glaringly obvious.

Meanwhile everyone else is still talking about 2019/2020 as the earliest when they will launch actual purpose-built EVs on platforms not converted from ICE. And they have no way of sourcing enough batteries, and they will probably have to pay at least 50% more for a battery pack available in limited quantities compared to what Tesla will be able to get for the batteries they are making in Gigafactory 1 at a high enough rate to supply 500k cars a year.

 

[nekkid]

Hey, hey, hey! Easy! The F-Type is not a car for old people.

Only those going through a midlife crisis ;-)

 

[mrklaw]

500,000 cars is more than the number of BMW 3 series sold last year. I don't know if I can imagine Tesla being able to ramp up production to that level so quickly

 

[GTI Guy]

Some interesting stuff here

https://electrek.co/2017/08/07/tesla-model-3-new-details-revealed/

 

[nekkid]

Some interesting stuff here

https://electrek.co/2017/08/07/tesla-model-3-new-details-revealed/

Looking good, performance-wise. Edging closer to the sweet spot of a 400 mile range, which is the point at which I'd seriously consider buying an EV.

 

[turmoil]

Tesla Semi truck unveil & test ride tentatively scheduled for Oct 26th in Hawthorne. Worth seeing this beast in person. It's unreal.

Elon hyping the truck

 

[Cake Boss]

Elon hyping the truck

Every time I hear about this, I remember the murdering trucks from the Logan movie.

 

[Heretic]

Every time I hear about this, I remember the murdering trucks from the Logan movie.

Hehe. Reminds me of the movie Duel

 

[RustyNails]

Anyone else seeing number of Tesla charging stations popping up? There's a brand new one opening in the Meijer parking lot near where I live, and a station planned to be opened in my suburb this year. I can't be more happy. Both are under 5 minutes drive. Meijer is so close I can probably walk to it in 15 minutes.

 

[j_rocca42]

Anyone else seeing number of Tesla charging stations popping up? There's a brand new one opening in the Meijer parking lot near where I live, and a station planned to be opened in my suburb this year. I can't be more happy. Both are under 5 minutes drive. Meijer is so close I can probably walk to it in 15 minutes.

Yes. One just popped up in my area heading out to the coast (pnw). Good to see.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Anyone else seeing number of Tesla charging stations popping up? There's a brand new one opening in the Meijer parking lot near where I live, and a station planned to be opened in my suburb this year. I can't be more happy. Both are under 5 minutes drive. Meijer is so close I can probably walk to it in 15 minutes.

That's funny. The meijer here in KY got a station earlier this year. Maybe they have a deal with meijer.

 

[willow ve]

That's funny. The meijer here in KY got a station earlier this year. Maybe they have a deal with meijer.

Seems like a win/win for Meijer. They rarely, if ever, use all of their parking spots. So let a well known brand use 5-20 spots out on the fringe that essentially brings (generally speaking) wealthier clients to your location for at least 15-30 minutes of down time.

All they give up is a few spaces of parking and they gain goodwill and potential customers. Now Tesla just needs to cover the roof of the actual store with solar panels.

 

[RustyNails]

Seems like a win/win for Meijer. They rarely, if ever, use all of their parking spots. So let a well known brand use 5-20 spots out on the fringe that essentially brings (generally speaking) wealthier clients to your location for at least 15-30 minutes of down time.

All they give up is a few spaces of parking and they gain goodwill and potential customers. Now Tesla just needs to cover the roof of the actual store with solar panels.

Yep, Meijer parking lots are massive. I just hope people don't leave their cars overnight.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

I rarely see anyone using the superchargers at my meijer. Maybe like one car every week or two weeks.
However on solar eclipse day about half the chargers were in use since our town was a perfect spot for eclipse totality.

 

[Living the Dream]

Well I had a pre-order for the 3 and with my new promotion and raised decided to go balls to the wall. Went with the P100D Midnight Silver Model S. It'll be delivered in two weeks. CANT WAIT

 

[j_rocca42]

Well I had a pre-order for the 3 and with my new promotion and raised decided to go balls to the wall. Went with the P100D Midnight Silver Model S. It'll be delivered in two weeks. CANT WAIT

Wow. Nice upgrade!

 

[Doodis]

Well I had a pre-order for the 3 and with my new promotion and raised decided to go balls to the wall. Went with the P100D Midnight Silver Model S. It'll be delivered in two weeks. CANT WAIT

Congrats! Your user name is apparently quite appropriate.

 

[dallow_bg]

Saw one of these on the road in Dallas a few weeks ago.

 

[j_rocca42]

Are they still only selling these to employees? Are they under an NDA? I want some indepth videos and impressions!

 

[AstroNut325]

Are they still only selling these to employees? Are they under an NDA? I want some indepth videos and impressions!

This is what I'm wondering. Where are the impressions. I would think a few hundred have been sold by now. Not all of them are to employees are they?