So, I am sure this has been discussed before, but I really do think Wii U could do very well with Japanese developers.
-generally, Japanese 3rd parties did not transition well to the HD generation.
-Unlike the West, the Japanese audience is not nearly as focused on graphics.
-On a similar note, portables have a much bigger share of the core gamer market.
-With some exceptions, the HD twins really did not do well in Japan, hardware or software wise. PS3 software finally caught some momentum, but only after publishers banged their head against a brick wall for years until it cracked a bit.
Basically, I think it would be extremely risky for the Japanese publishers to invest in more new technology with how they were burned last time. Unlike last gen, where they felt that they had to support the next Playstation, IMO that impetus is largely gone. Who knows what will happen, and it would not surprise me if some pubs try to play follow the leader again, but I do think the atmosphere is right for many Japanese pubs to play it safe.