• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Trump on track to win re-election. (WaPo Opinion)

Status
Not open for further replies.

entremet

Member
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...bdd1236be5d_story.html?utm_term=.f5df82e67478

This is written by a Democratic political strategist, not some GOP homer. Good analysis and Dems should not take Trump for granted again.

First, Trump knows that gaining the support of a majority of voters in a presidential election is not a requirement; it’s simply an aspiration. In fact, two out of the last three presidents were elected despite losing the popular vote.

Second, the continued decline in support for both political parties works to Trump’s advantage. The lack of voters’ faith in both parties increases the probability that there will be a major third-party candidate on the 2020 ballot. It will also lead to other minor-party candidates joining the presidential race. The multi-candidate field will further divide the anti-Trump vote, making it possible for him to get reelected simply by holding on to his current level of support.

Third, despite dismal poll numbers, Trump enters the contest with a job approval rating that is certainly at least marginally better than what the current national polls would suggest. Throughout the 2016 election, most analysts tracked the national polling, which failed to capture Trump’s strength in key battleground states. Current surveys continue to understate his support. Many national polls survey all eligible voters, rather than registered or likely voters, which can underestimate Trump, and some voters may be reluctant to admit that they are pro-Trump at all. Add to that the fact that Trump effectively demonstrated during the 2016 campaign that he is capable of expanding his support by effectively demonizing his opponents.
 

Loxley

Member
A LOT can fucking happen in three years. Midterms for starters, plus the whatever the heck Mueller's investigation leads to.
 

Maledict

Member
The article is factually wrong in its basic premise. Battleground state polling showed Hillary winning, significantly so. That’s why all the models failed. People weren’t ignorantly ignoring how EV works, the data itself was wrong.

And anyone saying that a president is on course for reelection three years out under *any* circumstances is an idiot trying to get shock headlines. Doing it now under these circumstances is doubly so. It’s pure click bait nonsense.
 

RPGCrazied

Member
Hahahaha, good luck with that.

Mueller will have spilled his findings much before next election. Trump is not winning again, let alone lasting another 3 years.
 
Don’t underestimate trump, or more accurately the American voting public, seems to be where this article started. Not exactly much insight here.
 

Snaku

Banned
The whole fucking country needs to get its act together.

f7FdEdG.jpg
 

DavidDesu

Member
It happened once given how unsuitable he was for the job. He's done more.of the shit all those who voted for him actually love meanwhile the rest of the world face palms. Of course he will win re election. They'd have to find a video of him abusing a child to stop him at this rate.
 
No shit. It should be obvious by now that America is not occupied by a majority of sensible, careful, and intellectual people, but rather by emotional tribalist and fearful survivalists if you will. I'm actually thankful to have the true nature of our country aired out for all to see, and more importantly, deal with.

We're not witnessing the dominance of Trump, we're witnessing the dominance of bigotry. He is a reflection of the things right and wrong with a lot of Americans. The attributes we've seen exposed and voted for are very old, and won't change a lot in 3 years
 

Omadahl

Banned
I work in a large public school district and several high schools closed for a day because so many students protested after the inauguration. This election might have been the one to finally get younger people off of their asses.

Of course it might have been the straw that broke the millennials back. So who fucking knows.
 
It's too far out to say he's going to win, that is what they thought about Hillary. :(
That’s kind of their supporting evidence..

Polls said Hillary would win, polls say Trump support is down

Obviously polls don’t mean shit. Red states will stay red states and Republicans put party before country every time, they will not vote democrat or third party.
 
I mean, strategy is about the long game, no?

Waiting until midterms will be foolish strategy wise.

It also requires knowing the basic facts on the ground, and those simply won’t exist for the 2020 race until the midterms at the absolute earliest. The political landscape in three years will almost certainly be dramatically different than it is right now.
 

entremet

Member
It also requires knowing the basic facts on the ground, and those simply won’t exist for the 2020 race until the midterms at the absolute earliest. The political landscape in three years will almost certainly be dramatically different than it is right now.
Well of course. But hope is not a strategy. 3 years goes quick and I still don’t think the democrats have a decent presidential candidate. Bernie was decent, but he will be too old.

Power of incumbency shouldn’t be taken for granted. I mean look at W.
 

abundant

Member
It happened once given how unsuitable he was for the job. He's done more.of the shit all those who voted for him actually love meanwhile the rest of the world face palms. Of course he will win re election. They'd have to find a video of him abusing a child to stop him at this rate.

The key to Trump losing re-election isn't about him losing support, because that will never happen. It's about motivating everyone else to go out and vote against him, which isn't an easy thing to do. Like I said, we'll get a better picture after Midterms next year.
 

Shauni

Member
Far too early to be writing this kind of stuff, but let's roll in the pessimism and defeat. I've already noticed a lot of people giving up on midterms around here anyway, might as well give up on 2020, too.
 

Aylinato

Member
That’s kind of their supporting evidence..

Polls said Hillary would win, polls say Trump support is down

Obviously polls don’t mean shit. Red states will stay red states and Republicans put party before country every time, they will not vote democrat or third party.


There's a whole lot more that went into Hillary losing then polls. She won the popular vote by 4 million. Red states don't stay red, blue states don't stay blue. If you look at history things change all the time.
 

Kusagari

Member
The third party option is a very real threat.

If Kasich or someone like Cuban runs as a third party candidate, it's going to be Dems and Dem-leaning Independents that bite; not diehard Republicans.
 

Veelk

Banned
Lets not forget that, unlike any other candidate beforehand, Trump will allow the Russians to meddle with the elections. There's no guard at the gate that is atleast trying to prevent it, Trump will let the Russians walk in and rig it for him.
 
Hahahaha, good luck with that.

Mueller will have spilled his findings much before next election. Trump is not winning again, let alone lasting another 3 years.

Jesus christ, we had this kind of negligent thinking last time around, and back when the brexit was "doomed for failure" too. Assume Trump will win, and do everything in your power (including not downplaying the chance that he could win again) to help not make that happen.

I almost feel like loads of people are more interested in feeling superior over how shitty of a president/person Trump is than they're interested in actually making the USA a better place to live.
 

entremet

Member
Far too early to be writing this kind of stuff, but let's roll in the pessimism and defeat. I've already noticed a lot of people giving up on midterms around here anyway, might as well give up on 2020, too.
Read the article, he provides a strategy near the end of it. It’s not doom and gloom. He’s just staying that he believes Trump can win right now, given the current situation, hence the “on track” phrasing.
 

Mahonay

Banned
Lets not forget that, unlike any other candidate beforehand, Trump will allow the Russians to meddle with the elections. There's no guard at the gate that is atleast trying to prevent it, Trump will let the Russians walk in and rig it for him.
Don't even have to wait until then. Russians will interfere again in the 2018 midterms.
 

120v

Member
hasn't even been a year yet. who the fuck knows

i will say an incumbent is generally harder to beat and a healthy economy could win him a second term by default. so unless he spends the rest of his term with dismal approval dems will be the underdogs going in
 

Aylinato

Member
The third party option is a very real threat.

If Kasich or someone like Cuban runs as a third party candidate, it's going to be Dems and Dem-leaning Independents that bite; not diehard Republicans.


Kasich is republican, democrats aren't going to magically swoon towards republican "independent" party, it'll just be republican leaning people.
 

Gutek

Member
“Mueller is gonna save us” mentality will hurt democrats more than they think. Don’t wait for Mueller. Get active, vote, call your senators, protest.
 

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
The headline should have been "I'm a Hopelessly Cynical and Jaded Human Being Who Thinks Nothing Good Can Ever Happen, So I'll Just Imagine a Scenario Where Trump Wins Reelection and Claim That's What is Going to Happen."
 

entremet

Member
The headline should have been "I'm a Hopelessly Cynical and Jaded Human Being Who Thinks Nothing Good Can Ever Happen, So I'll Just Imagine a Scenario Where Trump Wins Reelection and Claim That's What is Going to Happen."
Reading way too much into it. It’s rather dry as an opinion piece. I know Trump is awful, but let’s not get arrogant again.

Disengage your feeling about it and look at it soberly.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom