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[Killer Queen]

There are 3.4 million people in Puerto Rico. If 3% of the population resettles in Florida, if will become a leaning blue state.

Didn't we say the same thing about last election?
Hispanics wouldn't vote for Trump because of his comments about Hispanics, etc.
I understand that this situation is more dire but I think we should stop assuming these things.
I'm not saying they'll vote for Trump, but it doesn't necessarily mean they'll vote for Blue either.

 

[Vigilant Walrus]

It feels like it's been 4 already.

It's unreal. It just makes you so tired and pessimistic and afraid of the future.

 

[Mahonay]

And I will be 38.

Lol you will have basic quality of life health issues to deal with when you're 38?

I think even Trump is too old at 71. But that man is also a fucking delusional idiot and Joe is not.

 

[entremet]

I'll agree with this. Trump could be president again, this is a battle that needs to be fought.

But, three more years of Trump is going to be too much for the American public alone. Every damn week he starts some controversy. Three more years of that, 160 more controversies. The people that stayed out of the last election because "blah blah it's all the same my vote doesn't matter" now know that that's simply not true because if you don't do your part you get a mad man as president.

If the Democrats can put out a good candidate that does not have the unfavorable numbers that Clinton had, then Trump should lose.

But yes of course taking anything for granted is foolish as Trump proved last election. I'll be voting midterms and for president and I'll encourage others to as well.

I don’t know. I feel Democrats are falling into the “we’re not Trump” tactic. Where is the vision? I really don’t see it. And that means a lot for presidential campaigns. Yes, we made fun of MAGA, but it was sure memorable. I don’t even remember Hilary’s slogan.

 

[Y2Kev]

Didn't we say the same thing about last election?
Hispanics wouldn't vote for Trump because of his comments about Hispanics, etc.
I understand that this situation is more dire but I think we should stop assuming these things.
I'm not saying they'll vote for Trump, but it doesn't necessarily mean they'll vote for Blue either.

Hispanics did really turn out. I think the white people in Florida just came out and overwhelmed them. There's still a lot of white people in Merka and Trump activated them all.

So we should run Bernie.

 

[jett]

Hahahaha, good luck with that.

Mueller will have spilled his findings much before next election. Trump is not winning again, let alone lasting another 3 years.

How hilariously naive.

 

[KHarvey16]

The article is factually wrong in its basic premise. Battleground state polling showed Hillary winning, significantly so. That’s why all the models failed. People weren’t ignorantly ignoring how EV works, the data itself was wrong.

The data was actually quite good. The models and various methods of interpretation were poorly constructed.

 

[Count Dookkake]

Well, duh.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Wasn't it consistently high undecideds that threw everything out of wack in state polling?

 

[rjinaz]

I don't know. I feel Democrats are falling into the ”we're not Trump" tactic. Where is the vision? I really don't see it. And that means a lot for presidential campaigns. Yes, we made fun of MAGA, but it was sure memorable. I don't even remember Hilary's slogan.

Well there certainly needs to be some vision. I agree that "hey at least we're not Trump" is not a good direction because while it may be enough to stop Trump, it's going to leave people feeling like they got a bum deal come the following elections and they may swing back.

We don't necessarily need an Obama this time, what we DO need is somebody that is fresh, interesting, and charismatic though that actually can articulate the issues.

 

[Omadahl]

And I will be 38.

Me too. Want to make an internet pinkie promise that we attend the funeral of the first to go? We can make fake eulogies based off of our post history. See you at the wake!

 

[ZOONAMI]

Al Franken save us.

 

[Dusk Soldier]

The article is factually wrong in its basic premise. Battleground state polling showed Hillary winning, significantly so. That’s why all the models failed. People weren’t ignorantly ignoring how EV works, the data itself was wrong.

And anyone saying that a president is on course for reelection three years out under *any* circumstances is an idiot trying to get shock headlines. Doing it now under these circumstances is doubly so. It’s pure click bait nonsense.

which is what the article said...

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

I blame the centrist approach the DNC still pushes.
Its off putting to the massive amount of leftists in the country and its off putting to large amounts of minority voters.
And then they have the audacity to blame left wingers for not falling in line with this centrist approach...
Instead of learning from Bernie and using his/his messages appeal to leftist, right wing and minority voters for their advantage, they attacked him and his supporters.
If you ask me, a true leftist candidate(instead of the faceless centrists they always run) would also be the way to go in deep red states.

Another major issue is the "preaching to the choir" type messaging democrats seem to rely on. Not only democrats but the media a a whole.
You rightfully labeled the other side racists, nazis, deplorables, but unfortunately you are not in a position anymore not to engage in debate with them.
These people elected the president, you can't ignore them. Because of the geographic distance between liberal America and Trump supporters, Liberals seem to think the other group is tiny, while Trump supporters think that liberal America is everywhere and ist a major threat to America and need to be purged.
This is working in the Trump supporters favor.



That said, Trump is fucking dumb, in the truest sense of the word.
Despite all all his fuck ups so far which didn't seem to hurt his support in a significant way, I just don't believe that he will make it through the entire 4 years without a major fuck up thats so inexcusable that even his die hard supporters realize that he is just completely unqualified.
Hopefully this optimism of mine isn't naive.

 

[Rentahamster]

Eh, Sosnik isn't that clever of an analyst.

First of all, it's way too early to say for sure. He's right, though, in that the same factors that helped Trump last time would probably help him again (First, third, fourth points).

His second point about third party interference sounds more like an asspull. It might happen, but there's nothing to indicate at this juncture that it will be more of a factor than the nearly non-factor it was last time.

We don't even know yet who the Democratic nominee is yet, fer cryin' out loud. I'm not even sure if I trust the Dems to have learned their lesson and not fuck up their primary process again.

Hahahaha, good luck with that.

Mueller will have spilled his findings much before next election. Trump is not winning again, let alone lasting another 3 years.

The Mueller thing isn't going to be the savior you want it to be. You're better off hoping that he pulls out due to health, or due to just being bored of it all.

Don't put all your hopes in one basket. I would advise on contingency plans, like shoring up the base, establishing a solid ground game, getting with the times regarding social media in advertising, and creating an easy to understand, populist platform based on core progressive tenants.

Or, you guys can ignore my advice again.

 

[iavi]

If the economy doesn’t tank before reelection, we’re most likely in for another term.

 

[Crocodile]

I can't read the article because of the paywall but the excerpts in the OP don't really have any insight.

-The Electoral College is a challenge (no shit)
-There are going to be more/strong 3rd party candidate that will divide the vote (hard to argue this if we don't even know 2020 candidates and who gets through the primaries)
-THE POLLS WERE WRONG!!!!!! (Not really? Trump just got the inside straight)

I also swear alot of people posting around here didn't start paying attention to politics until recently. "You can't be anti-_____" and "Dems don't turn out in midterms" are both over-simplistic assessments of how politics have worked in this country. Dems have challenges for next year (like Gerrymandering) and people can't rest on their laurels but how about less bitching and more getting involve din politics when/where you can? Donate! Volunteer! Do something even if its just a tiny bit!

 

[Killer Queen]

Hispanics did really turn out. I think the white people in Florida just came out and overwhelmed them. There's still a lot of white people in Merka and Trump activated them all.

So we should run Bernie.

I'm just saying that we should realize that people can and will either be complacent and or vote against their own self interest and we shouldn't soley rely on the assumption that things will go as planned, because that screwed us many times over last election. We harped on about demographics and how a republican could never win again, how much of a joke Trump was, etc etc and here we are. I don't doubt that this election has woken up a lot of people to reality, but I also see a lot of people here making the same mistakes. Just don't start counting your chickens before they hatch.

 

[ZOONAMI]

which is what the article said...

Unless I’m mistaken polling showed Wisconsin extremely close, and if you spent any amount of time there pre-election, you’d know trump had it in the bag. By extension WI being that close you know Iowa, MI and even MN were fucking close. Too bad hil-dawg didn’t spend any time there.

 

[Ouroboros]

We dont even know who is running against him and what other mess ups he will have the next 2.5 years, come on this is a dumb article.

 

[thefro]

lol, nobody's going to assume shit after what happened last year.

This is just clickbait considering we're 37 months out from election day.

 

[BitStyle]

lol, nobody's going to assume shit after what happened last year.

This is just clickbait considering we're 37 months out from election day.

Pretty much

 

[Crocodile]

Unless I’m mistaken polling showed Wisconsin extremely close, and if you spent any amount of time there pre-election, you’d know trump had it in the bag. By extension WI being that close you know Iowa, MI and even MN were fucking close. Too bad hil-dawg didn’t spend any time there.

Winning a state by less than 1% is "had it in the bag"? It sounds like you are just relying on anecdote. Also she still lost states she spent days/weeks in like PA so maybe we can save it with the "she didn't visit Wisconsin" nonsense.

 

[ZOONAMI]

It’s not really clickbait given the fundraising warchest he’s amassing and just how shitty white people are in this country, on top of that shitty dem turnout is a constant plague for anyone not named Obama.

 

[teruterubozu]

We like to disappoint.

 

[Chumly]

So does the article even address that the national polls were spot on? It was just the individual state polls that were the problem. In addition it makes a wild assumption that nobody is going to change their polling and just assumes trump automatically has a huge cushion.

What a dumb article

 

[gcubed]

I mean, sure, we’ve had 15-20 point swings in special elections to democrats so far, and we are coming up on something that can give you more actual information... but i guess its easy to put out a lazy “but the polls” opinion piece when you want masturbatory responses.

 

[MThanded]

I believe it.

Many people will vote for him to spite liberals/democrats even if they don't like him or his policies.

 

[ZOONAMI]

Winning a state by less than 1% is "had it in the bag"? It sounds like you are just relying on anecdote. Also she still lost states she spent days/weeks in like PA so maybe we can save it with the "she didn't visit Wisconsin" nonsense.

Well, maybe a few WI visits would have turned that 1%. It’s in the past I guess so we are we’re at. It sucks.

It is anecdote, but there are still fucking trump signs everywhere in Wisconsin.

 

[entremet]

It's not really clickbait given the fundraising warchest he's amassing and just how shitty white people are in this country, on top of that shitty dem turnout is a constant plague for anyone not named Obama.

Another thing is that Dems tend to favor extremely telegenic and charismatic candidates. You're not going to get those every Presidential campaign. We got fortunate with Bill Clinton and Obama, but those guys had unreal charisma. That's not commonly distributed.

 

[Ogodei]

This is only possible if the Democrats manage to find a *worse (that is, less appealing to the Great Lakes) candidate than Hillary in 2020. Flip barely 100,000 votes across PA-WI-MI and there goes the election.

Meanwhile the guy's got historic low approval ratings, including 67% among self-described Republicans.

This is not to say the Democrats should ever be complacent about beating an obviously unqualified GOP candidate, ever again, but the conditions that created Trump were caused by a number of blindspots. If he wants to win again he's going to have to work at it, either by being a great President or by campaigning like hell in 2020, and we know he's too lazy for that.

 

[ZOONAMI]

This is only possible if the Democrats manage to find a *worse (that is, less appealing to the Great Lakes) candidate than Hillary in 2020. Flip barely 100,000 votes across PA-WI-MI and there goes the election.

Meanwhile the guy's got historic low approval ratings, including 67% among self-described Republicans.

This is not to say the Democrats should ever be complacent about beating an obviously unqualified GOP candidate, ever again, but the conditions that created Trump were caused by a number of blindspots. If he wants to win again he's going to have to work at it, either by being a great President or by campaigning like hell in 2020, and we know he's too lazy for that.

I don’t think dems can count on any of those states for the next 20+ Years. Too many brainwashed Fox News Facebook white sheeple.

The motherfucker is the definition of Teflon, the scandals DO NOT MATTER. 2016 proves that.

 

[Rentahamster]

Three more years of that, 160 more controversies. The people that stayed out of the last election because "blah blah it's all the same my vote doesn't matter" now know that that's simply not true because if you don't do your part you get a mad man as president.

He's going out of his way to basically piss of anybody that isn't wealthy.

We dont even know what other mess ups he will have the next 2.5 years

It is naive to assume that the only results of his actions over the next 3 years are going to be mess ups. Keep in mind that a significant portion of the public actually like what he's doing, even though it looks horrible through your eyes.

Don't assume that all "controversies" and "mess ups" lead him closer to defeat, and don't assume that he won't ever get any actual wins. 3 years is a long time, especially if the stock market and unemployment continue on the track they're on.

 

[Crocodile]

Well, maybe a few WI visits would have turned that 1%. It’s in the past I guess so we are we’re at. It sucks.

It is anecdote, but there are still fucking trump signs everywhere in Wisconsin.

The issue isn't whether she should or shouldn't have visited there but more that even if she wins WI and MI, she still loses! She lost states she spent a lot of resources (time/money) in like PA. So the lack of visits to WI and MI are super far down the list of what took her down. That's why it's basically a meme to bring them up.

 

[Trago]

Biden/Sanders 2020.

 

[rjinaz]

We like to disappoint.

I mean yes.

But, Bush was bad, but he isn't Trump bad. Toying with facism, bringing shame on the office every week with his own created controversies, buddying up with Putin, and so on.

I think Bush got a lot of love because he was President during 9-11.

 

[ZOONAMI]

Biden/Sanders 2020.

Al franken warren 2020.

Franken is like a younger Bernie and warren is actually fairly left. Dems need to stop with this centrist nonsense and energize progressives who will actually be excited about their candidates and fucking show up to vote.

 

[gcubed]

It is naive to assume that the only results of his actions over the next 3 years are going to be mess ups. Keep in mind that a significant portion of the public actually like what he's doing, even though it looks horrible through your eyes.

Don't assume that all "controversies" and "mess ups" lead him closer to defeat, and don't assume that he won't ever get any actual wins. 3 years is a long time, especially if the stock market and unemployment continue on the track they're on.

A significant portion of the public think that lizard men are real and taking over the world government.

That significant portion is insignificant to think about

 

[jerry113]

Which is why we must get the word out to vote in the 2018 midterms. We can't put all our stock on presidential elections. Getting control of the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is just as if not more important.

 

[One Eyed Willy]

If the economy doesn’t tank before reelection, we’re most likely in for another term.

Why would the economy tank?

 

[Trago]

Al franken warren 2020.

Actually much better.

 

[Nerdkiller]

Why would the economy tank?

Hasn't there been rumblings that the US is due for a recession soon?

 

[teruterubozu]

I mean yes.

But, Bush was bad, but he isn't Trump bad. Toying with facism, bringing shame on the office every week with his own created controversies, buddying up with Putin, and so on.

I think Bush got a lot of love because he was President during 9-11.

And the opponent was John Kerry. The opponent is going to matter. Dems can't afford to be half-assed about this if they want a legitimate shot.

 

[Stone Ocean]

Another poster and I have been saying this shit and people respond with “joke isn’t funny, stop”

Wonder what they’ll say now 🙄

Treating him like a joke helped him get elected in the first place. I'd expect dems to know better next time.

 

[Triple Dash]

Trump leaving office isn't the end all be all either (assuming Muller finds something and that he isn't pardoned). He'll still have Twitter, Fox News/Breitbart, Russia(?), and diehard supporters. Moore winning the Alabama Primary by acting as the candidate Trump would vote for shows just how much political/media power he has and may continue to have.

 

[Shauni]

Eh, Sosnik isn't that clever of an analyst.

First of all, it's way too early to say for sure. He's right, though, in that the same factors that helped Trump last time would probably help him again (First, third, fourth points).

His second point about third party interference sounds more like an asspull. It might happen, but there's nothing to indicate at this juncture that it will be more of a factor than the nearly non-factor it was last time.

We don't even know yet who the Democratic nominee is yet, fer cryin' out loud. I'm not even sure if I trust the Dems to have learned their lesson and not fuck up their primary process again.



The Mueller thing isn't going to be the savior you want it to be. You're better off hoping that he pulls out due to health, or due to just being bored of it all.

Don't put all your hopes in one basket. I would advise on contingency plans, like shoring up the base, establishing a solid ground game, getting with the times regarding social media in advertising, and creating an easy to understand, populist platform based on core progressive tenants.

Or, you guys can ignore my advice again.

Considering how your initial response to the Russian investigation was to just handwave it off and basically ignore it, your advice isn't nearly as golden as you probably think it is. But I don't know, you can't help to beat your own little drum about this shit everytime it comes up, so why you go to the party and tell them your Nostradamus-like powers of prediction. I'm sure they'll cut a big check for that magic bullet, baby.

 

[teruterubozu]

Trump leaving office isn't the end all be all either (assuming Muller finds something and that he isn't pardoned). He'll still have Twitter, Fox News/Breitbart, Russia(?), and diehard supporters. Moore winning the Alabama Primary by acting as the candidate Trump would vote for shows just how much political/media power he has and may continue to have.

Plus Pence would be President and conservatives actually like Pence.

 

[entremet]

Considering how your initial response to the Russian investigation was to just handwave it off and basically ignore it, your advice isn't nearly as golden as you probably think it is. But I don't know, you can't help to beat your own little drum about this shit everytime it comes up, so why you go to the party and tell them you're Nostradamus-like powers of prediction. I'm sure they'll cut a big check for that magic bullet, baby.

He was right, though. One of the few during the last election cycle and people laughed at him. I think he earned the right to brag for now lol.

 

[The Real Napsta]

Wow clickbait. Literally not even any announced candidates yet.

You mean besides Trump right?

 

[ZOONAMI]

Why would the economy tank?

I think a lot of the economic metrics are extremely artificial. The unemployment rate isn’t real, housing is extremely over inflated, wages are stagnant, tons of people rely on assistance, our energy grid is antiquated, climate catastrophes will continue, nearly everyone has a gigantic debt load. It’s all fucking paint covering a systemic tanking about to happen imo.

Beyond that we’ve finally “recovered” from 2008 (I don’t think we really have), so we’re due for another downturn within the next 5 Years. Late 80s, early 2000s, late 2000s, early 2020.