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[speculawyer]

I mean the PS3 is losing Sonly a projected 2Billion, and the 360 has by industry standards done worse than the dreamcast sales-wise(only microsoft's wallet is keepin it alive).

Did that make sense to you when you wrote it? Did you really think that the 360 is selling worse than a system that totally died and the PS3 isn't even selling nearly that good?

 

[Speevy]

The DC was already selling like <50K a month by this point. Anyone who compares it to the 360 is insane.

 

[jarrod]

360's already outperformed Dreamcast in all markets but Japan iirc. Hardware sales are okay, but it's tremendous software sales that are really floating it. GTA4 and Halo 3 are going to be simply epic...

 

[donny2112]

The PS3 has probably have a dozen price drops to go through over the next 6 years.

You honestly think that the PS3 will have 12 price-drops over the next 6 years?

In my mind, the PS3 is already guaranteed to not finish first in the U.S. If HD gaming really takes off, then the 360's lead and Halo 3 will push them to finish above the PS3. If HD gaming stagnates/falls and/or the casual gaming provided by the Wii continues to take off, the Wii finishes first in the U.S. (Note: I'm not considering the PS2, though it actually could see a resurgence and a long life @ $99.)

I've mentioned this before in NPD threads and Media-Create threads, but I think a good plan for Sony would be to just get through the next 3-4 years in whatever shape they can and relaunch the PS3 + waggle + $300 price in 2010 or so. I figure that, short of slash-and-burn price cuts, the PS3 will be ~$300 by 2010, and it definitely has enough power to handle it's current games + waggle. A convincing relaunch in 2010 should give them the first launcher status next generation plus an existing catalog of whatever games they can get out in the next 3-4 years. Also, almost no R&D costs to make up.

It's obviously not the way that die-hard Sony fans would want them to enter next-gen, but I think it makes the most sense for Sony.

As to the perilous position, isn't it also true that historically the winner stayed the winner and the loser stayed the loser? I remember a sales regular posting that before.

Me? I think I said something like ...

When the loser of a generation gets a price drop, it has a sales bump, but then keeps on losing. When the winner of a generation gets a price drop, it just wins even bigger.

I think it was in an old NPD thread (those were all deleted, right?) and/or before 2006, so I can't find it in a search. :/

 

[AdmiralViscen]

A microprocessor designer once famously said "Chip design is like Russian roulette where you put the gun to your head, pull the trigger, and find out five years later if you are dead."

The point being that design, develop, and manufacture time scales are so long that you have to make educated guesses as to what the market will want many years down the road. It is not an easy thing to do and I have sympathy for those that make these decisions.

Having said that, there is some room for adjustment. For example, Sony said the low-end PS3 would not have HDMI and we know they changed that decision. That's why people often bring up the Blu-Ray issue . . . Sony could have pulled Blu-Ray out of the PS3 even at a relatively late date . . . but they chose not to do that.

They knew PS3 was going to come in much higher than $300 a long, long time ago.

 

[Miniboss1232]

The thing about PS3 pricing is that they spent a lot of money subsidizing it in Japan were it is absolutely lost cause and refused to lose a penny in Europe were they actually have a shot at some kind of critial mass. I say they need to raise the price in Japan (once the stocks sell out), keep it in US and maybe drop it in Europe in some countries.

I want to quote this because I think it's absolutely true. It's almost as if Sony knew that they were coming up against trouble in Japan before going in, and thus dropped the price so as to possibly save some face (it hasn't, clearly). But in the process, they weren't able to reduce the price in the two territories where it seems that might have had a chance if the price were lower. I think they would have still had trouble in the US, but Europe in particular seems like it would have sided with Sony if they wouldn't have charged them so insanely much.

And you know, maybe that's what Sony's failing was. They saw that they were going to have trouble in Japan, and decided to focus their money there, while making up for it in territories where they thought they had a better chance. But in the end, they still are losing Japan, and because of the pricing, they're losing the other two "sure thing" territories they had.

In other words, I think Sony read the market fairly decently. I just think they reacted completely incorrectly.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

They knew PS3 was going to come in much higher than $300 a long, long time ago.

I think they felt that they could afford to come in higher than their closest competition because they assumed they would be having better sales than they've been seeing. They wouldn't have come in at that price point if they didn't. So, the question is: what do they do while they're stuck at that level? Dropping the price will immediately trigger MS to do the same, keeping them at the same distance while increasing their losses...with sales that might not scale to match. Basically, the positions are swapped this time as MS is Sony circa 2002 and Sony is MS in the same time period.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Who is the great decider that determines how the 360 should be selling?

I'm sure MSFT would like it to be selling better than it is . . . but that is true for all consoles & console makers. But it is actually selling (a tiny bit) better than the previous xbox at this point. And it is certainly selling MUCH better than the PS3. However, it is getting its butt kicked by the Wii.

But all things considered, the 360 is selling pretty darn well for a $400 console. But if they want to take it to the next level a price drop is clearly required.

Spoiler

(And if a $400 console is too expensive, imagine the situation of a $600 console.)

Considering the last 2 generations should remarkable growth past hardcore gamers, I don't think the barometer shoud be as low as selling above the original Xbox. It's fine and dandy to bring up the 360's price as a means to debate the sales of the 360 but it ignores the fact that as market leader, MS should be shooting for 100 million in HW. They had the same aspirations last gen, when it was completely delusional but now that they have a winning formula (looking at SW sales), they should be shooting for it. ~200K/month in NA is okay. No more. They should be aiming at Wii sales. I don't care about the reasons they can't. They knew what they were getting into. The bottom line is that Wii will lap it in under a year, WW. MS is doing horrible in JPN. Not so stellar in any other territory in terms of HW. They targeted 10 million WW 6 months ago and they still seem to have difficulty. And it's their own fault. Faulty HW and high price.

So, I think we can decide on how it's selling. It's kinda horrible when put into perspective. So, here's my perspective. Ignoring false hopes of 10 year console cycles, 'a tiny bit' better than Xbox or even a 50% better than the Xbox 1 doesn't put them within sniffing distance of 50 million. A number that will be well under 50% of the total from last gen's winner (PS2 shooting for 120 mil) or even the SNES (60 mil), who had kickass comp from Sega. I'm not sure how HW can be really seen as great when they are sliding downwards. SW, they are doing great but average HW sales will catch up to them.

 

[Wiitard]

I want to quote this because I think it's absolutely true. It's almost as if Sony knew that they were coming up against trouble in Japan before going in, and thus dropped the price so as to possibly save some face (it hasn't, clearly). But in the process, they weren't able to reduce the price in the two territories where it seems that might have had a chance if the price were lower. I think they would have still had trouble in the US, but Europe in particular seems like it would have sided with Sony if they wouldn't have charged them so insanely much.

And you know, maybe that's what Sony's failing was. They saw that they were going to have trouble in Japan, and decided to focus their money there, while making up for it in territories where they thought they had a better chance. But in the end, they still are losing Japan, and because of the pricing, they're losing the other two "sure thing" territories they had.

In other words, I think Sony read the market fairly decently. I just think they reacted completely incorrectly.

I agree with you except maybe in one thing. It seems like they have pretty much decided to let Japan die (look at their first party portofolio) and then changed their mind at the last minute - they did not have the nerve of following through.

The whole oversupplying of Japan and US and delaying the Euro launch was insane.

If they had exactly the same target losses, their money would have gone so much further in Europe.

 

[Miniboss1232]

Considering the last 2 generations should remarkable growth past hardcore gamers, I don't think the barometer shoud be as low as selling above the original Xbox. It's fine and dandy to bring up the 360's price as a means to debate the sales of the 360 but it ignores the fact that as market leader, MS should be shooting for 100 million in HW. They had the same aspirations last gen, when it was completely delusional but now that they have a winning formula (looking at SW sales), they should be shooting for it. ~200K/month in NA is okay. No more. They should be aiming at Wii sales. I don't care about the reasons they can't. They knew what they were getting into. The bottom line is that Wii will lap it in under a year, WW. MS is doing horrible in JPN. Not so stellar in any other territory in terms of HW. They targeted 10 million WW 6 months ago and they still seem to have difficulty. And it's their own fault. Faulty HW and high price.

So, I think we can decide on how it's selling. It's kinda horrible when put into perspective. So, here's my perspective. Ignoring false hopes of 10 year console cycles, 'a tiny bit' better than Xbox or even a 50% better than the Xbox 1 doesn't put them within sniffing distance of 50 million. A number that will be well under 50% of the total from last gen's winner (PS2 shooting for 120 mil) or even the SNES (60 mil), who had kickass comp from Sega. I'm not sure how HW can be really seen as great when they are sliding downwards. SW, they are doing great but average HW sales will catch up to them.

Unfortunately, I honestly think they are still holding onto their original goal for this gen: Defeat Sony. Of course, a paper bag could've defeated Sony this time around (since they set themselves up for it so well), and they seem completely unprepared (or unable?) to counter the Wii at the moment.

I don't know. Maybe they're satisfied with their position? I think they're doing pretty good, but only because I'm a hardcore gamer, and this gen they seem to really be going for that crowd. Will it help them in the marketplace? Absolutely not. But I certainly appreciate it.

Meanwhile, the Wii will succeed with or without my support (though I do support it), so there ya go.

I agree with you except maybe in one thing. It seems like they have pretty much decided to let Japan die (look at their first party portofolio) and then changed their mind at the last minute - they did not have the nerve of following through.

The whole oversupplying of Japan and US and delaying the Euro launch was insane.

If they had exactly the same target losses, their money would have gone so much further in Europe.

Hmm. You're probably right there too. It seems like they may have decided a little too late to relinquish Japan, though. I mean, what should they do now? Offset costs by dropping the price in the US and Europe, but jack up the price in Japan? That's not going to work too well for a few reasons (one of them being that they're not selling well in Japan at the moment, even with the lower price).

I think it's fair to say that Sony has lost the launch round. Maybe they can pull something out later on, but daily it's looking less and less likely.

And I just bought one too. Sad. At least I'll have Ratchet and Team ICO.

 

[Version 3.0]

Who is the great decider that determines how the 360 should be selling?

I'm sure MSFT would like it to be selling better than it is . . . but that is true for all consoles & console makers. But it is actually selling (a tiny bit) better than the previous xbox at this point. And it is certainly selling MUCH better than the PS3. However, it is getting its butt kicked by the Wii.

But all things considered, the 360 is selling pretty darn well for a $400 console. But if they want to take it to the next level a price drop is clearly required.

Well, it was Microsoft who said they'd "have a billion people play our games" and "turn the entire world into gamers", with "hit software measured not in the millions, but in the tens of millions". Exaggerations, you may say, or debate about the exact wording. But no matter how you excuse the bragging, the sales performance so far is just a tiny fraction of what they claimed they would have.

http://www.gwlvideos.com/Vids/E32005/billion_xbox.mpg

 

[Maxwell House]

360 sales have slowed down, and as others have mentioned, most likely this is due to saturation, as most of the owners willing to buy a 360 at $400 have one now.

I am of the belief that once 360 has a $100 price drop, sales will be Fing bonkers. 360 premium at $299 when Halo 3 comes out will move in massive amounts.

 

[spwolf]

But in the process, they weren't able to reduce the price in the two territories where it seems that might have had a chance if the price were lower. I think they would have still had trouble in the US, but Europe in particular seems like it would have sided with Sony if they wouldn't have charged them so insanely much.

europe is only place where PS3 outsold every other launch. Please explain me how Europeans are not siding with Sony?

Sony already reduced the price - they lost 2billion because of it. Europe is specific market where costs are bigger - where retailers make actual money on the consoles for instance.
Where you have 50 different countries to distribute hardware in.

I think Sony knew what will results be quite a long time ago - they knew that the price will have to be too much. They knew that they wont have Japanese games for a while.

For them, it is now balancing act between how much they want to lose to gain more consoles on the market. If you anylize that - and see that they have to sell 15 games to recoup the cost of $250 they lose per PS3 sold, you can definetly see why they dont want to lower the price until cost of production goes significantly down.

It is definetly good for them that PS2 sells great, and that rest of the business is great - but that did not fall from the sky either - it is product of what they did. People act as if PS2 sales are just an accident, and they were "lucky" because of Spidey 3 - no, they made the biggest budget movie ever and it paid off.

Would they do something differently if they could start all over again? I bet they would. But that boat has long sailed. And if they did, I , for one, wouldnt get PS3 yet.

 

[spwolf]

360 sales have slowed down, and as others have mentioned, most likely this is due to saturation, as most of the owners willing to buy a 360 at $400 have one now.

I am of the belief that once 360 has a $100 price drop, sales will be Fing bonkers. 360 premium at $299 when Halo 3 comes out will move in massive amounts.

they didnt really slow down - it is just that Wii is selling so well. 360 sales are just fine, and MS will try to hold up the pricing as long as they can, since they need to start making money there...

 

[SteelHunter88]

Um, totally false. It's already shipped as much as Dreamcast ever did.

Exactly and it accomplished that in 18 months when the Dreamcast was dead in 12, so by industry standards it is a failure(not by the hardcore who have an insane attach rate though).

 

[_Alkaline_]

I would be shocked if Wii sold over 300k. Way too high.

:lol

 

[SteelHunter88]

I hope no one gets the idea that I'm a Wiifanboy either...I'm just being objective and I still appreciate Microsoft's efforts, just not the hardware :lol

 

[SteelHunter88]

360's already outperformed Dreamcast in all markets but Japan iirc. Hardware sales are okay, but it's tremendous software sales that are really floating it. GTA4 and Halo 3 are going to be simply epic...

Exaaaaaactly, the software sales and support is what has kept it afloat so far but I admit that things are gonna look much better in a few more months for the 360 seeing as HD penetration is only improving and their big guns are finally gonna hit...oh and they have a price drop to fall back on

 

[Bildi]

Here's a graph I did because I had nothing better to do apparently and I thought someone asked for it but now I can't find their post.

Edit: I'm a dumbass - it was in the prediction thread. Moved my post there.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Exactly and it accomplished that in 18 months when the Dreamcast was dead in 12, so by industry standards it is a failure(not by the hardcore who have an insane attach rate though).

Dreamcast was not dead in 12.

Dreamcast had not sold through all of its stock when its death was announced.

You're an idiot.

 

[Miniboss1232]

Exactly and it accomplished that in 18 months when the Dreamcast was dead in 12, so by industry standards it is a failure(not by the hardcore who have an insane attach rate though).

Actually, no, once the Wii passes it in a few months, the 360 will still be in second place. The PS3 is the failure.

 

[SteelHunter88]

Dreamcast was not dead in 12.

Dreamcast had not sold through all of its stock when its death was announced.

You're an idiot.

I know the Dreamcast had not sold through all it's stock yet and I never said that it did...so you should chill out my man...

 

[Stumpokapow]

Actually, no, once the Wii passes it in a few months, the 360 will still be in second place. The PS3 is the failure.

The Wii won't pass the 360 domestically for at least another 13-15 months. Worldwide, it might though.

 

[SteelHunter88]

Actually, no, once the Wii passes it in a few months, the 360 will still be in second place. The PS3 is the failure.

Actually I was refferering to both the 360 and PS3 as failures just that the 360 is a MUCH SMALLER one due to the more mainstream $400 dollar price tag.

 

[laserbeam]

The Wii won't pass the 360 domestically for at least another 13-15 months. Worldwide, it might though.

Worldwide its expected to pass it in July as far as in NA its gonna be awhile.

The 360 is a failure in regards to the fact it failed to build a lead unable to be overcome. Its Hold world wide on the top spot is about to fail and from there it will coast in 2nd place. It wont be the overall Failure but it certainly squandered its lead big time.

 

[Miniboss1232]

The Wii won't pass the 360 domestically for at least another 13-15 months. Worldwide, it might though.

Sorry, I was actually speaking worldwide. It's still got a ways to go in the US (the 360 isn't selling THAT much less than the Wii... at most 100k less per month, but usually the gap is far less than that).

So if Microsoft is only concerned about the territories where they have a chance, then they have nothing to worry about for a while.

Worldwide its expected to pass it in July as far as in NA its gonna be awhile.

The 360 is a failure in regards to the fact it failed to build a lead unable to be overcome. Its Hold world wide on the top spot is about to fail and from there it will coast in 2nd place. It wont be the overall Failure but it certainly squandered its lead big time.

I'm not so sure about that. I think they released at the right time. A year later, and they would have had to contend with the Wii head on, and Sony might have delayed the PS3 until either the costs came down or the games were there. Their lead will hold out against the Wii for another year, I'm guessing. And that's not even taking a price drop into account.

All in all, I think they're doing respectable. They're doing much better than Sony (again, this is everywhere but Japan), and nobody saw the Wii coming. They bought themselves enough time to maneuver, something they didn't have before.

 

[goomba]

Worldwide its expected to pass it in July as far as in NA its gonna be awhile.

The 360 is a failure in regards to the fact it failed to build a lead unable to be overcome. Its Hold world wide on the top spot is about to fail and from there it will coast in 2nd place. It wont be the overall Failure but it certainly squandered its lead big time.

i said wow

 

[Stumpokapow]

Worldwide its expected to pass it in July as far as in NA its gonna be awhile.

I don't think so. Wii is at 7 million, 360 is at 10 million. To catch up that fast either the 360 would have to be doing poorer than I thought in Europe or the Wii's Japanese supply would have to go up pretty dramatically. Who knows, though.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

nm

 

[Miniboss1232]

I don't think so. Wii is at 7 million, 360 is at 10 million. To catch up that fast either the 360 would have to be doing poorer than I thought in Europe or the Wii's Japanese supply would have to go up pretty dramatically. Who knows, though.

That's not entirely accurate.

 

[mj1108]

I don't think so. Wii is at 7 million, 360 is at 10 million. To catch up that fast either the 360 would have to be doing poorer than I thought in Europe or the Wii's Japanese supply would have to go up pretty dramatically. Who knows, though.

They're making 1+ million Wii's a month and the demand is still there.

 

[SteelHunter88]

Worldwide its expected to pass it in July as far as in NA its gonna be awhile.

The 360 is a failure in regards to the fact it failed to build a lead unable to be overcome. Its Hold world wide on the top spot is about to fail and from there it will coast in 2nd place. It wont be the overall Failure but it certainly squandered its lead big time.

QFT

Good post, and just about what I've been trying to get through in my posts involving the 360's performance which wasn't bad...but could be better.

 

[Miniboss1232]

QFT

Good post, and just about what I've been trying to get through in my posts involving the 360's performance which wasn't bad...but could be better.

I agree with you that they could be doing better. I just don't think it should be labeled a failure, heh.

 

[Polari]

i said wow

July's probably a bit optimistic.

 

[davepoobond]

I agree with you that they could be doing better. I just don't think it should be labeled a failure, heh.

if MS's goal was to be #1, they failed in doing so.

 

[laserbeam]

They're making 1+ million Wii's a month and the demand is still there.

and Nintendos French Leader type Commented Nintendo was boosting production an additional 50% for the Wii in may so we could very well see 1.76-2 million Wii a month production

with near 100% sell through at those numbers the Wii's estimated sales for FY 07 are certainly low balled big time. If we start at june through march at 1.75m a month thats 17.5 million Wii alone and we know Christmas period will see huge sales.

 

[Miniboss1232]

if MS's goal was to be #1, they failed in doing so.

Can't argue with that.

 

[SteelHunter88]

I agree with you that they could be doing better. I just don't think it should be labeled a failure, heh.

True...maybe I was bein a bit hard...and it can change from failure to mild success so I guess I can take it back...at least for the 360 as of right now

 

[donny2112]

360 is at 10 million.

Shipped.

U.S. - 5.3 million (March)
JPN - 0.4 million (now)
EU - ~2.7 million (estimate)

Probably between 8.5 and 9 million sold WW.

Wii was at 5.9 million sold WW at the end of March. They are producing and selling at least 1 million per month.

Say the 360 is at 9 million at the end of April, and the Wii is at 7 million at the end of April. The 360 might sell another million by the end of July WW. The Wii, at its current rate, will have sold 3 million by the same point. That would make them virtually even at about 10 million a piece.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Damn, Wii's still moving like a bat outta hell! I didn't realize it was going quite so fast. I think there will be a fair bit of jostling for first place in the new/next gen this Fall once X360 drops for the first time and has it's first great holiday for big software. Still, Wii seems only limited by Ninty's production.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

QFT

Good post, and just about what I've been trying to get through in my posts involving the 360's performance which wasn't bad...but could be better.

You've backpedaled since post 1. You started off saying that it would have been pulled off the market like Dreamcast if MS didn't support it with money.

if MS's goal was to be #1, they failed in doing so.

Their goal was to keep Sony from becoming the de facto living room entertainment hub, not bring death to waggle.

 

[vanguardian1]

For the last 4 weeks in Japan hasn't the Wii sold about 347,000 consoles? And considering the "re-launches" we had last month here in North America, I'd say 350k would be the sweet spot for the wii, but I'd say it also has a "chance" of hitting 400k. And Europe seems to be doing quite well also.

 

[Version 3.0]

I was just looking at the past numbers, and noticed that the Wii is tracking above the PS2 month-to-month to this point. But the PS2 launched in October, and the Wii in November. If you count their LTD from their launch and not month-to-month, the Wii is still just 19,182 units behind.

So if it manages to do >345,196 in Thursday's NPD, it'll overtake the PS2's LTD through April even with the extra month (which was just shy of 400k, by the way).

Spoiler

I didn't give out any official NPD data, so please don't ban me

 

[davepoobond]

Their goal was to keep Sony from becoming the de facto living room entertainment hub, not bring death to waggle.

preeeettyyy sure they've said multiple times they're "in it to win it" or something to that effect.

their SECONDARY goal would be keep Sony from being the de facto living room entertainment hub, but they're trying to be #1

 

[speculawyer]

I think it's fair to say that Sony has lost the launch round. Maybe they can pull something out later on, but daily it's looking less and less likely.

And I just bought one too. Sad. At least I'll have Ratchet and Team ICO.

And you'll have have a great Blu-Ray player. The Blu-Ray capability will always be a great rationalization for my PS3 purchase. I've got like 17 Blu-Ray discs already. (Hey folks . . . use that rebate coupon book that came with your PS3. $10 rebates on some BDs is a good deal. )

 

[Axord]

You've backpedaled since post 1. You started off saying that it would have been pulled off the market like Dreamcast if MS didn't support it with money.

If MS only sold Xbox they'd be about the size of Sega, and they'd be 5 billion in the hole as a company. You don't think that'd be enough to kill them?