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(Wedbush) November NPD Preview & OFFICIAL Prediction thread

E

Elios83

Member
nintendorly said:
So, basically, in November...

Nintendo: 1.1 million+units
Sony: 700,000 units
Microsoft: 600,000+

Nintendo wins!
Click to expand...

Uh?What's with your calculator?
500k PS2+ 350k PSP + 200k PS3 = 1,05 million units for Sony
 
B

BorkBork

The Legend of BorkBork: BorkBorkity Borking
Elios83 said:
Uh?What's with your calculator?
500k PS2+ 350k PSP + 200k PS3 = 1,05 million units for Sony
Click to expand...

His Nintendo numbers are fubared too. :lol 500K + 600k + 500K = 1.1 million!
 
H

Hiro_Kunimi_80

Member
nintendorly said:
So, basically, in November...

Nintendo: 1.1 million+units / under 149-249$ price target
Sony: 700,000 units / under 199$ price target
Microsoft: 600,000+ / 299-399$ price target

Who wins ? = Gears of War
Click to expand...


FIXED :)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
NomarTyme said:
Time! to changes DS prediction!
Click to expand...
Like I said, I think voting should be considered closed, and any predictions made after that post not counted. Nor edited posts. :p

It's interesting that they give estimates for every system, but their 360 figure is considered the bottom of a range. Hmmm.
 
N

nintendorly

Banned
I suck at this, but I think I'm going to make some predicitons for November. :)

Wii--500k
DS--600k
GBA-500k
XBOX360 --500
PS3--150k
PS2--500k
PSP--350k


Gee...I just hope my predictions are close to the real numbers....>_>;;
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Like I said, I think voting should be considered closed, and any predictions made after that post not counted. Nor edited posts. :p

It's interesting that they give estimates for every system, but their 360 figure is considered the bottom of a range. Hmmm.
Click to expand...

Meaning 360TON?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Love the picture:

360andps3.jpg


Also:

Microsoft is now on track to sell through about 4.25 million units in the US in calendar 2006 with an installed base of around 5 million units.
Click to expand...

To hit 4.25m on the year, MS needs to sell 2m units in November/December, and 2.1m to hit 5m total. Could the analysts have been right for once? 0_0
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Ulairi said:
I thought MS was supposed to sell throuhg 10 million this year?
Click to expand...
Ship 10m world-wide, though Bach clarified that MS's shipped is pretty close to sold since they count shipped after they leave the warehouse in Memphis, not when unit leave factories in China. They'll probably end up with 8-9m sold through.
 
U

Ulairi

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Ship 10m world-wide, though Bach clarified that MS's shipped is pretty close to sold since they count shipped after they leave the warehouse in Memphis, not when unit leave factories in China. They'll probably end up with 8-9m sold through.
Click to expand...

They are going to end up around 5 million in the states, does that mean Europe is going to end up selling 5 million systems? I thought the whole thing was that they wanted 10 million consumers to have the system by the time ps3 launched. Not trying to be an ass but I thought that was their big way to win this time around.....
 
S

soundwave05

Member
If those numbers are legit ... that's some serious ownage by Nintendo.

500k for the GBA and Wii a piece and 650k for the DS? 75% attach rate for Zelda? Big time sales. If Nintendo can supply enough Wiis, I think they can outsell even the 360 in December.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
Ulairi said:
They are going to end up around 5 million in the states, does that mean Europe is going to end up selling 5 million systems? I thought the whole thing was that they wanted 10 million consumers to have the system by the time ps3 launched. Not trying to be an ass but I thought that was their big way to win this time around.....
Click to expand...

They might be thinking to themselves "Define 'launched'..." at this point. Not that they were thinking that at the start, but Sony has definitely given them quite a bit of breathing room.
 
S

soul creator

Member
Ulairi said:
They are going to end up around 5 million in the states, does that mean Europe is going to end up selling 5 million systems? I thought the whole thing was that they wanted 10 million consumers to have the system by the time ps3 launched. Not trying to be an ass but I thought that was their big way to win this time around.....
Click to expand...

Not needed. Haven't you heard? Blue Dragon is gonna push a million 360's in Japan before the end of the year :p
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Ulairi said:
They are going to end up around 5 million in the states, does that mean Europe is going to end up selling 5 million systems? I thought the whole thing was that they wanted 10 million consumers to have the system by the time ps3 launched. Not trying to be an ass but I thought that was their big way to win this time around.....
Click to expand...
They've said shipped over and over. However, Shane Kim has famously said sold through in one interview, so either they scaled back or he was wrong. Probably the former.

Roughly, the US is 60% of XBox's market right now. So if they hit 5m in the US by the end of the year, that would be ~3.3m in the rest of the world, which is why I estimated 8-9m sold total. Just high-level estimates.
 
M

meltpotato

Member
GhaleonEB said:
They've said shipped over and over. However, Shane Kim has famously said sold through in one interview, so either they scaled back or he was wrong. Probably the former.

Roughly, the US is 60% of XBox's market right now. So if they hit 5m in the US by the end of the year, that would be ~3.3m in the rest of the world, which is why I estimated 8-9m sold total. Just high-level estimates.
Click to expand...

3.3M doesn't seem fantasyland at all. What is the current total combined for japan (haha) & europe? I'd have to guess that is well above 2.5M and when you factor in all the untracked sales 500k is a reasonable assumption of untracked aggrigate sales for everywhere aside US.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
Just a shot in the dark here:

Wii: 500k
PS2: 500k
360: 500k
PS3: 150k

NDS: 900k
GBA: 400k
PSP: 350k

GCN: 100k
Xbox: 50k
 
S

Somnia

Member
Now imagine next christmas when XBox 360 drops its price. Sony could drop their price too ,but damn would it hurt them bad in the wallet. I honestly don't see PS3 picking up any kind of steam untill late 2008 at the earliest with a price drop. I could be wrong obviously ,but I think the 360 proves that alot of people will pay the 400 price tag ,but even more won't.

One thing we have to keep in mind is this little quote from the article up top "As is well known, available quantity of PS3 was probably less than 150K units at launch, with a further 50K creeping into the channel in November. The low tie ratio for PS3 is blamed on eBay resale speculation with some retailers reporting less than 0.5 software units per hardware unit. Arcadia says a 600K total sell through for the year is reasonable."

I know its ebay's fault,etc. ,but if they can't get their tie ratio up (which they will raise it obviously) to near 360 tie-ratio that could cause problems for sony. I gurantee you that 3rd party's look at 360's tie ratio and high selling numbers for alot of 3rd party games. Which in the end could make a huge difference next Christmas in MS's favor.
 
B

Bebpo

Banned
Wait, has there been any concrete evidence Sony hasn't shipped 400k at launch and 100k+ since? Stores seem to keep restocking at a regular pace (local Best Buys seem to get 20+ a week), so the 150-200k predictions look a bit odd.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Bebpo said:
Wait, has there been any concrete evidence Sony hasn't shipped 400k at launch and 100k+ since? Stores seem to keep restocking at a regular pace (local Best Buys seem to get 20+ a week), so the 150-200k predictions look a bit odd.
Click to expand...
The CEO of Electronic Arts said in an earnings call that Sony only shipped half the promised 400k for launch, and "might" hit 500-800k for the year. I think that's what is keeping the estimates down. And since launch, Sony has refused to comment on launch quantities, or reiterate their 400k launch commitment.
 
C

Cooter

Lacks the power of instantaneous movement
How long will it take Wii to surpass Xbox 360 is the real question. And a second question, will the PS3 ever be able to catch up?

Predictions?
 
C

Cooter

Lacks the power of instantaneous movement
Worldwide is what I meant. I say mid 2007.

US never? I wouldn't be so sure of that.
 
A

Arsenal

Member
Bebpo said:
Wait, has there been any concrete evidence Sony hasn't shipped 400k at launch and 100k+ since? Stores seem to keep restocking at a regular pace (local Best Buys seem to get 20+ a week), so the 150-200k predictions look a bit odd.
Click to expand...

All we got from Sony was some vague statement about consoles being in the "pipeline".
 
N

Nerevar

they call me "Man Gravy".
Cooter said:
Worldwide is what I meant. I say mid 2007.

US never? I wouldn't be so sure of that.
Click to expand...

Agreed, "never" is mighty optimistic from a MS perspective. I'd argue that not only could it happen, it's inevitable (given the price point).
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
I love how the GBA is still doing great, but Nintendo isn't releasing Mother 3 (or Rhythm Tengoku) because "the system is dead."
 
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