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(Wedbush) November NPD Preview & OFFICIAL Prediction thread

Norse

Norse

Member
for some reaso I think 360 will do a little over 450k this novemeber....and just over 1 millin for december.......if it does 750k in novemeber, color me impressed.


I can see a 12 yr old telling his parents he wants a ps3 and them teling him they doubt they'll be able to find one...The kid will then say if you cant find one, I will take a 360 premium, or a wii.....but wii's are impossible to find too.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
bdoughty said:
Madden 2007 (360, PS2, Xbox, PC, PSP, GBA, DS, GC, PS3, Wii, Mobile, Arcade)
Click to expand...

Wow, that is impressive. Of course they really need to take full advantage of their expensive exclusive NFL license.
 
B

Busaiku

Member
Gameboy Advance: 298,000
Gamecube: 37,000
Nintendo DS: 642,000
Playstation 2: 412,000
Playstation 3: 202,000
Sony PSP: 296,000
Wii: 584,000
X-Box: 8,000
X-Box 360: 487,000
 
D

duk

Banned
Wii: 619,000
360: 491,000
PS3: 209,000
PS2: 595,000
NDS: 585,000
PSP: 291,000

Gears of War: 1.3 million
Zelda: 429,000
 
A

Archie

Second-rate Anihawk
HW:

360 - 550,000
PS3 - 250,000
Wii - 450,000

DS - 850,000
PSP - 400,000
GBA - 350,000

PS2 - 600,000
GCN - 50,000
Xbox - 2,000

SW:

1. Elite Beat Agents - 5,000,000
2. Final Fantasy XII - 1,000,000
3. Gears of War - 800,000
4. Twilight Princes - 500,000
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
GhaleonEB said:
The XBox sold ~460k in its second November. (2002)
Click to expand...

And it was only $199, not $299-$399. Just to match those old sales of 460k with the current price is quite an accomplishment. Selling 750k in November at these price points and in the face of PS3/Wii PR and hype would be a megaton++; don't see that happening.
 
D

duk

Banned
beermonkey@tehbias said:
And it was only $199, not $299-$399. Just to match those old sales of 460k with the current price is quite an accomplishment. Selling 750k in November at these price points and in the face of PS3/Wii PR and hype would be a megaton++; don't see that happening.
Click to expand...

i agree
 
S

Syb

Member
360 - 650,000
PS3 - 250,000
Wii - 550,000

DS - 750,000
PSP - 400,000
GBA - 350,000

PS2 - 550,000
GCN - 40,000
Xbox - 5,000
 
S

Square2005

Banned
Maybe this will help us w/ X360:
Code: 
[U]2002: Sept -> Dec    [/U]
[B]XB    171,737* -> 238,200 -> 466,962 -> 1,031,140**[/B] = 4,572,020 LTD
MoM  +26%           +38%          +96%          +121%   
[U]2006: Sept -> Dec               [/U]
[B]X360 259,458  -> 217,772 ->[/B] 427,000? ->  944,000?       = 4,262,000? LTD
MoM  +26%           -16%           +96%?         +121%?

So X360 may be on track to sell less than XB in its 2nd X'mas...
but I'm estimating sales up 175% MoM in Nov. to 600k (due to high initial GoW sales - similar to the boost GC had from Oct -> Nov in 2002 w/ Metroid PRime).
Then up 85% MoM for Dec. to 1.11m putting LTD at 4.6m, just barely ahead of XB.

*2 free-game givaway bundle released

**Splinter Cell (unexpectidly) becomes the non-PS2 next-gen system seller instead of the highly anticipated Metroid Prime, giving XB a huge Dec lead over GC - twice as high (they were nearly tied in Nov).
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
beermonkey@tehbias said:
And it was only $199, not $299-$399. Just to match those old sales of 460k with the current price is quite an accomplishment. Selling 750k in November at these price points and in the face of PS3/Wii PR and hype would be a megaton++; don't see that happening.
Click to expand...
Well, I was responding to an absolute statement - that the XBox never sold less than 500k in November until the 360 released.

I'll post some comparables later, but the 360 has outsold the xbox by 600k in the comparable Jan-Oct time frame after launch, including every month since the xBox had it's price cut except October. (and the month of the price cut, the 360 was only outsold by 8k)

Price is most certainly a factor, but I think Gears of War is a factor as well. I'm guessing ~600k for 360 this month.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
"We note that for a given game, a difference of only one unit per store per week could result in a difference of 100,000 units in volume, or $3 – 6 million in retail sales for the month. Therefore, we caution investors to use our estimates as only one data point in a sea of information."

Covering their asses eh?


Anyway, I think most of you are seriously underestimating the legacy platforms. Rememebr, Best Buys had piles of PS2s for sale on Black Friday, no Wiis.

Best Sellers:
DS = 912,000
GBA = 720,000

Decent Sales:
360 = 567,000
Wii = 537,000
PS2 = 477,000

Time for the bargain bin:*
PSP = 350,000
PS3: 234.000
GCN = 74,000
Xbox = 3,971

Im also taking a huge gamble with my GBA number, twice as high as many of you. I expect it to pay off.


*Its a joke.
 
Z

zsidane

Member
X360 550k
PS3 200k
Wii 450k
PS2 650k
DS 750k
PSP 350k
GBA 400k
GC 100k
Xbox 30k

GoW 700k
FFXII 900k
Zelda TP 390k
GHII 500k
 
C

Clever Pun

Member
NDS - 915K
360 - 645K
Wii - 520k
ps2 - 440k
gba - 420k
psp - 305k
ps3 - 190k
gcn - 9k
xbox - 5k

FFXII - 1180k
GoW - 960k
Zelda TP 360k
GHII - 390k
EBA - 112k
 
pr0cs

pr0cs

Member
There is no way the 360 is going to do over 500,000... what the hell are they thinking. Perhaps if they include the canucks (which got a lot of good bundled incentives in November) but USA alone they're on some serious crank if they think the 360 is anywhere the realm of 750k.
 
E

EverSoTrendy

Banned
NDS - 435k
360 - 530k
Wii - 400k
ps2 - 236k
gba - 90k
psp - 120k
ps3 - 236k
gcn - 15k
xbox - 10k

FFXII - 1.2m
GoW - 1.5m
Zelda TP 150k
 
M

Mr. Pointy

Member
Gameboy Advance: 260k
Gamecube: 40k
Nintendo DS: 700k
Playstation 2: 400k
Playstation 3: 230k
Sony PSP: 250k
Wii: 580k
X-Box: 10k
X-Box 360: 490k

Gears of War: 910k
Twilight Princess: 500k
FFXII: 1.4m
Resistance: 90k
FFIII: 120k
 
B

Bo130

Member
My old prediction,

Wii - 600k
DS - 450k
PS3 - 320k
360 - 300k
PS2 - 280k
GBA - 170k
PSP - 165k
Click to expand...

My new prediction:

DS - 790k
360 - 650k
Wii - 530k
PS2 - 315k
PS3 - 270k
GBA - 240k
PSP - 230k
GC - 43k
Xbox - 7k
 
L

Lo-Volt

Member
Nintendo:
DS Lite: 750,000
GBA: 300,000
Wii: 550,000
GameCube: 20,000?

Microsoft:
Xbox 360: 600,000
Xbox: 5,000

Sony:
PSP: 350,000
PS3: 195,000
PS2: 500,000
 
D

dirtmonkey37

flinging feces ---->
"Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.9 million units, averaging approximately 250,000 units monthly for the last six months. We expect sales of 750,000 Xbox 360 hardware units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December."


That's disheartening....but also very bright at the same time.


only 2.9 million units of the 360 in the US????? woah! That's horrible! That means there's about 4 million in the rest of the world........heh.

750K for 360 in Nov? I dunno.....I hope and I wish (so the advent of DMC4 on the 360 because more realistic) but still, that's pretty high.
 
D

dirtmonkey37

flinging feces ---->
Avutta1978 said:
http://www.smarthouse.com.au/Games_And_Devices/Console?Article=/Games And Devices/Console/G8D9F8E3

looks like somepeoples estimates might not make it. sorry if old


Microsoft shares have declined after it was revealed that worldwide sales of Xbox are not hitting their estimated targets.



Advertisement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Bloomberg.co.uk is reporting that sales of the Xbox in the USA trailed Analysts expectations by 33%, for the month of November. Microsoft apparently shifted 468,000 units, whilst Industry business boffin Bob Austrian (Banc of America Securities) had predicted sales of 700,000.

"Industry growth rates, for both consoles and video games, may be slowing, or at least, seasonally weaker than expected," Austrian commented.

In Australia Sony Computer Entertainment Managing Director Michael Ephraim said last week " Indications are that the Xbox is not selling as well as Microsoft expected. we are told by mass retailers like Harvey Norman that sales are slow. There is no doubt that Microsoft will be impacted by the launch this month of the Nintendo Wii. This product came from left of centre and now there are 3 players sitting at the table with strong offerings, Sony Microsoft and Nintendo. We have to live with the fact that we do not have the PS3 but we are still selling thousands of PS2 consoles".
Click to expand...

That's even more disheartening.....
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
Avutta1978 said:
Microsoft apparently shifted 468,000 units, whilst Industry business boffin Bob Austrian (Banc of America Securities) had predicted sales of 700,000.

"Industry growth rates, for both consoles and video games, may be slowing, or at least, seasonally weaker than expected," Austrian commented.

In Australia Sony Computer Entertainment Managing Director Michael Ephraim said last week " Indications are that the Xbox is not selling as well as Microsoft expected. we are told by mass retailers like Harvey Norman that sales are slow. There is no doubt that Microsoft will be impacted by the launch this month of the Nintendo Wii. This product came from left of centre and now there are 3 players sitting at the table with strong offerings, Sony Microsoft and Nintendo. We have to live with the fact that we do not have the PS3 but we are still selling thousands of PS2 consoles".
Click to expand...

rainedout.jpg

Console called on account of rain.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
PhatSaqs said:
Why do you think it's bogus?
Click to expand...

A site just got indexed on google and their news stories landed at the top of searches and a lot of people tried to reference it, including our own sonycowboy. Only then they looked at the actual headline date of 2002. Turns out this latest site didn't bother to check the date before running with a story. Rest assured, the number will not be exactly the same as 2002.
 
P

PhatSaqs

Banned
Odysseus said:
A site just got indexed on google and their news stories landed at the top of searches and a lot of people tried to reference it, including our own sonycowboy. Only then they looked at the actual headline date of 2002. Turns out this latest site didn't bother to check the date before running with a story. Rest assured, the number will not be exactly the same as 2002.
Click to expand...
Ah ok. Thanks for the exp.
 
G

Ganondorf>Link

Member
Hardware

NDS - 780,000
Wii - 475,000
360 - 450,000
PS2 - 435,000
GBA - 330,000
PSP - 300,000
PS3 - 210,000
GCN - 60,000
XBX - 10,000

Games

Final Fantasy XII - 1,200,000
Gears of War - 750,000
Call of Duty 3 - (360: 530,000 / Wii: 90,000 / PS3: 85,000)
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 380,000
Red Steel - 220,000
Resistance: Fall of Man - 115,000
 
D

dirtmonkey37

flinging feces ---->
Odysseus said:
A site just got indexed on google and their news stories landed at the top of searches and a lot of people tried to reference it, including our own sonycowboy. Only then they looked at the actual headline date of 2002. Turns out this latest site didn't bother to check the date before running with a story. Rest assured, the number will not be exactly the same as 2002.
Click to expand...


Ahhh....phew!
 
M

monchi-kun

Member
threeball said:
You guys are still over estimating the PS2.

It didn't pull 500k+ numbers last year, why would it this year?
Click to expand...

Didn't Sony mention something about PS2 and PSP sales being up comnpared to last year?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
monchi-kun said:
Didn't Sony mention something about PS2 and PSP sales being up comnpared to last year?
Click to expand...
I think the timeframe referenced in that PR was from the before and after the PS3 launched. And since the PR came out after black Friday, it can also be explained as seasonality.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
dirtmonkey37 said:
only 2.9 million units of the 360 in the US????? woah! That's horrible! That means there's about 4 million in the rest of the world........heh.
Click to expand...
No it doesn't. (Nexgenwars is not in any way reliable.) Microsoft's shipments suggest that NA is 60% of the X360 market so actual WW sales through October is more likely ~5 million. (2.9 US, 2.1 other.)
 
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