I think the greatest problem MS is dealing with right now is price. The power difference/multiplat disparity is another problem but much much smaller a concern in the whole scope of things.
I would say that based on PS4's sales trajectory relative to the XB1, the average consumer values 3rd party games more than 1st party games as I think the XB1 clearly presented a better exclusive lineup to the average consumer than the PS4. [I don't mean that XB1 has the better exclusives but that the average consumer would view it as such based on what they would see.]
As such considering the large sales disparity even in MS's home market the average consumer values $100 in their pocket more than whatever exclusive game advantage they perceive the XB1 to have.
Thus I can only envision the XB1 having any real impact if they drop the price to at least match PS4's. Another thought I've been wondering is that perhaps the power disparity that in previous gens does not permeate to the average consumer would be more rampant this gen for two reasons
- social media/internet accessibility - In essence the instantaneous dissemination of information to thousands upon thousands of loud-mouthed individuals
- If the average consumer values the $100 more than whatever perceived exclusives advantage they see for the XB1, I think that consumer who buys a PS4 would more readily look for and listen to other reasons that justify his decision. I.E. I got a PS4 because it was cheaper and I don't care enough about exclusives. Oh my cheaper PS4 is also noticeably more powerful? Purchase vindicated let me tell all my friends about it
/end ceaseless ramblings