They also didn't have a direct competitor come out 12-14 months after that blew their systems away in terms of system power, 3rd party participation and gamer mindshare. The PS2 and 360 had time to grow, time to get 3rd parties to learn the system hardware and pump out some crazy shit... The Wii U doesn't have the luxury of time. If either the PS4 or Xbox 3 come out this fall they will be at the forefront of the conversation, not the Wii U. What crystal ball am I using? It's called common sense.
I'm with you! They definitely have their work cut out for them, no question about it. But let's be truthful -- there's no way Nintendo couldn't have seen this coming for a long time now. If Fall 2013 is a foregone conclusion, then they may as well just quit right now and pack it in. Obviously, they've planned Wii U to be relevant for the next 5+ years. You could argue that's just arrogance or ignorance on Nintendo's part, and maybe that's true, but the fact remains that they still have to figure out a way to be sucessful. How do they compete against the next Microsoft and Sony consoles? It may not be as unrealistic of a task as it seems on first look.
First, what do they have going for them? Let's assume that the PS4 and/or 720 launch this fall. Nintendo will be working with a potentially big price advantage, plenty of hardware in stock, an established library and an established userbase, all a byproduct of the year head start. Does this alone quell demand for the new consoles? Of course not. But these advantages, plus a strong library of compelling exclusive software, could provide a good reason to consider the Wii U as a must-own console
in addition to a PS4 or 720. In other words, if I'm a 360 and/or PS3 owner who liked those systems for most of this generation, and want to get the next iteration of these platforms, why do I want a Wii U? What compels me to go buy one?
Because barring Nintendo catching lightning-in-a-bottle again with a Wii Sports or Brain Age equivalent that makes the Wii U a must-have product overnight, Nintendo's best approach for success this gen is going to be as a complement to the competitors' systems, not an alternative. Nintendo needs games, but let's face it: they aren't going to get 360/PS3/PC ports, and they aren't going to get 720/PS4/PC downports.
(As a side note, it's funny in a way to still see posts in threads about new or upcoming 360/PS3/PC titles, wondering "Where is the Wii U version? No excuse anymore." Of course there is -- they aren't going to sell!)
Nintendo needs a strong late-2013-through-2014 lineup of games, but assuming that the early trends continue and they don't get ports of the lion's share of 2013-14 360/PS3 games, and also see as few "good" downports as the Wii got, they aren't going to get by without a damn good exclusive lineup. And I don't just mean the usual first party suspects, because if you like Zelda and Mario and company, Nintendo doesn't need to worry about you not buying a Wii U.
What does it all mean? It may mean that Bayonetta 2 has to be the tip of the iceberg, and just the start of Nintendo bringing over a number of hardcore 3rd party exclusives . It may mean that Retro Studios needs to be working on something quite different than Donkey Kong.
I'm certainly not boldly claiming that Nintendo is going to have the best holiday lineup ever with Half Life 3, Metal Gear Solid 5, Smash Bros., Zelda and Metroid all out the same day. They may just somehow strike gold with another Wii Sports and sell gazillions again. Or they might have just been incredibly shortsighted and only have Excite Truck 2 and Kirby ready this holiday, and the system goes the way of the Dreamcast.
Those are the extremes, obviously, but at the end of the day there's a very realistic possibility that if the PS4 and/or 720 are the absolute hot items this holiday and going forward, the Wii U becomes a total afterthought and becomes a repeat of the GCN sales-wise, but a far more distant third place. It could definitely happen that way, and I can see it happening that way, no doubt about it.
But it's conceivable that while the hot new hardware is releasing this holiday, a number of the best new fall games will be available exclusively on Wii U. If the 720 and PS4 launch with lineups comparable to their predecessors, it will hardly be Murderer's Row. Nintendo has to take advantage of the extra year they've had available to them and put their best lineup out there, and hope its enough to get them plenty of attention in the wake of new, more powerful hardware launching.
*This is all assuming that Nintendo has been prepared for a while now that third party support wasn't just going to fall into place after simply "checking those boxes", and that they didn't have expectations of repeating the Wii's enormous success. If they were somehow blindsided by all of this, and don't have big plans for late 2013 besides another new Mario game and a price drop, I'll agree that they are in big time trouble. Let's wait for them to actually announce some games, and see how this year plays out. It's going to very interesting to watch, though.
so just 10k more will change the status from disaster to not that much of a disaster? 
