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[FusedAtoms]

The holidays are so big for games because of so many people are buying them as gifts, so yeah of course the PS4 skin which had crazy bundles did better than the pro which is 150 more and comes with no games. People saying the pro is a Bomba because of this is crazy.

 

[Humdinger]

Wait, he's gone? What?

Yeah, hung up his mod robes and retired.

 

[kpaadet]

Nah. I'm right. Really all that matters to me.

Your ignorance is providing so much entertainment for us all, thank you sir.

 

[Hesemonni]

Yeah, hung up his mod robes and retired.

Wow.

 

[Crayon]

It doesn't confirm that at all, actually. The BoM & how much of a loss on hardware sold is MS willing to take will be what determines the price. And frankly, considering how well the X1S is selling, I think they're just going to continue to try & grow their marketshare in the US with the S, while using the Scorpio to price-gouge their hardcore audience with a high-margin item.

This is the first thing I've heard that makes sense.

 

[Humdinger]

Wow.

Yeah, and now everybody's an insider.

Which reminds me, I'm an insider, too. I work in the industry. (I work part-time at Gamestop.) (no I don't, I'm just kidding)

 

[DangerMouse]

The holidays are so big for games because of so many people are buying them as gifts, so yeah of course the PS4 skin which had crazy bundles did better than the pro which is 150 more and comes with no games. People saying the pro is a Bomba because of this is crazy.

Yep. Holidays are all about getting it cheap. It did pretty good.

Yeah, hung up his mod robes and retired.

Oh wow, had no idea.

 

[Freeman]

It surprises me the percentage of Pros is so low, goes to show that sometime our perception doesn't align with the market. I also find it hard to understand how the X1 is keeping pace in the US.

I need to see how the percentages change, 25~33% was what I was expecting.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Yeah, hung up his mod robes and retired.

I don't think he retired permanently, just took a reverse-sabbatical to go do his real work making video games. (Of course, he may still end up not coming back.)

 

[Humdinger]

I don't think he retired permanently, just took a reverse-sabbatical to go do his real work making video games.

Oh, okay, good. Hope he returns eventually. He is legend.

 

[Urthor]

For Xbox to not win NA is a big blow, considering how far behind it is in markets outside of NA. Its platform, marketing and exclusives are targeted there, to be splitting a region when Playstation has pretty much made Europe it's own personal territory is a sign of just how bad this generation is for Microsoft.

 

[Matt]

Nah. I'm right. Really all that matters to me.

Well it's nice to know that your industry analysis is as good as your game criticism.

 

[Humdinger]

It surprises me the percentage of Pros is so low, goes to show that sometime our perception doesn't align with the market. I also find it hard to understand how the X1 is keeping pace in the US.

I need to see how the percentages change, 25~33% was what I was expecting.

I do think that, despite everyone saying this was exactly what they expected, there were some people, including an insider, talking about how Pro had all kinds of positive buzz and it looked like it would sell really well. I'm not sure 15% is really hitting that mark, based on the way they were talking (I remember posting some doubt and getting chided for it). The way they were talking, it sounded like it would be higher than that.

I think 15% is fine for a product like the Pro, and it doesn't surprise me, given the various factors already discussed (price, lack of marketing, etc.). I don't think it's particularly good, though. I expect Scorpio will do better, as a percentage of Xbox sales, because I expect MS will push it hard during E3 and during the holidays (also because of the power differential, and it'll probably look prettier).

 

[texhnolyze]

I honestly expected a LOT much for Pro. I guess I was totally wrong.

 

[QuantumZebra]

UHD drive doing WORK.

I'm an unabashed Playstation fan (2x PS4, Vita, and PS3) and I bought an Xbox One S over the holidays.

I regret nothing.

 

[btrboyev]

It surprises me the percentage of Pros is so low, goes to show that sometime our perception doesn't align with the market. I also find it hard to understand how the X1 is keeping pace in the US.

I need to see how the percentages change, 25~33% was what I was expecting.

Why is it hard to understand how Xbox is keeping pace when both systems are nearly identical but both have a strong loyal fan base? The Xbox has always been strong in the US and it has strong franchises that are not on PlayStation (and being on PC is insignificant).

 

[shoreu]

Scorpio

Can someone explain this to me

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

Nah. I'm right. Really all that matters to me.

I dunno why you're freelance when you could probably be full time with Polygon.

 

[notaskwid]

Well it's nice to know that your industry analysis is as good as your game criticism.

Ahah that got a laugh out of me.

 

[killatopak]

Can someone explain this to me

Statham posted "scorpio" in a ps4 sales thread when no one was talking anything about ms and it derailed the thread. It has more to do with his tweet though where he said to check out that thread to see the people that needs to be put in the ignore list after posting "scorpio". All hell broke loose after that.

Turned into a meme afterwards.

 

[Crayon]

Statham posted "scorpio" in a ps4 sales thread when no one was talking anything about ms and it derailed the thread. It has more to do with his tweet though where he said to check out that thread to see the people that needs to be put in the ignore list after posting "scorpio". All hell broke loose after that.

Turned into a meme afterwards.

Everyone always forgets to tell about the tweet. That was the best part.

 

[farisr]

Well it's nice to know that your industry analysis is as good as your game criticism.

ahahahaha

 

[Maintenance]

Well it's nice to know that your industry analysis is as good as your game criticism.

I dunno why you're freelance when you could probably be full time with Polygon.

Kuchera and Gies already with open arms waiting.

 

[JaggedSac]

What on earth is happening here? Lol

 

[Maintenance]

What on earth is happening here? Lol

Post-truth era GAF, where everyone is an insider and the facts don't matter.

 

[kyser73]

Pro was always going to have weak sales, don't know what a lot of people here were thinking. We are talking about an upgraded machine with little benefits of real interest to the masses, and that has only its most effect on a new type of expensive TV that will take a couple of years to become the standard.

Scorpio will meet a even bigger failure, just you wait.

ps4pro not selling well probably means sony won't be repeating this sidegrade thing, not a big fan tbh
polarizing your own customers is never a good idea

My guesstimate is 1.5m WW over Nov/Dec.

What numbers were you both expecting it to do?

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

Scorpio's likely to do better than Pro because it will be contextualized as more than just a half-step. Consumers will see it as a new box. Switch and Scorpio is the start of the next gen.

They're not.

 

[LastMinuteHero]

ahahahaha

Ok I gotta know the story behind this. And isn't this so called "insider" supposed to get vet first before running his mouth

 

[kyser73]

Well it's nice to know that your industry analysis is as good as your game criticism.

Savage.

 

[TLZ]

It surprises me the percentage of Pros is so low, goes to show that sometime our perception doesn't align with the market. I also find it hard to understand how the X1 is keeping pace in the US.

I need to see how the percentages change, 25~33% was what I was expecting.

I don't find it surprising at all. You have to consider the number of pro consoles made, plus the number of people already owning a ps4 who see no need to upgrade, plus the low price of the slim that people would likely go for because it's cheaper and plays the same games and bundled with games, so better value. So pro is more for the enthusiast.

 

[Rourkey]

I think Scorpio will do better than the pro (in NPD/US), Xbox one owners have spent the last few years being told how their box is underpowered and can't do 1080p, this solves that. Also there will be people who switched to PS4 from Xbox because it was more powerful (the Scorpio announcement giving them reason to hold off on pro for now) and will switch back knowing many of their old 360 games will be waiting to be added to their download queue. Assuming Sony doesn't add 4k bluray it will have that over the competition as people upgrade their tv's.

I think that maybe the pro was a tad premature, no one was really asking for a new console and next year it's gonna look lame specs wise compares to what we're hearing about Scorpio it's just whether MS can keep the price down!

 

[Norse]

Like what? Sell the hardware at a loss?

Don't sell a console without a game packed in!!

WTF Sony, you ask $400 for a system and you don't even pack in a game!? That's crazy. Especially during Christmas.

 

[Lothars]

I think Scorpio will do better than the pro (in NPD/US), Xbox one owners have spent the last few years being told how their box is underpowered and can't do 1080p, this solves that. Also there will be people who switched to PS4 from Xbox because it was more powerful (the Scorpio announcement giving them reason to hold off on pro for now) and will switch back knowing many of their old 360 games will be waiting to be added to their download queue. Assuming Sony doesn't add 4k bluray it will have that over the competition as people upgrade their tv's.

I think that maybe the pro was a tad premature, no one was really asking for a new console and next year it's gonna look lame specs wise compares to what we're hearing about Scorpio it's just whether MS can keep the price down!

Which they won't be able to do, Scorpio has a huge hill to climb in the fact that they are probably going to price it at least 499 if not higher. I don't believe there's almost anyway they can release it for 399 even if that's the price they should release it at. If they release it any higher than 399 than it's in trouble from the start.

 

[Nightengale]

When talking about PS4 Pro, I find it weird most of the time people don’t factor in Sony’s “20 million PS4s” fiscal year target as part of the analysis and positioning of where Sony estimated the Pro to sell and where their position is.

Let’s run by the facts that we know:
Last fiscal year, Sony shipped 17.7 million PS4s.
This fiscal year, Sony aims to ship 20 million PS4s (inc.Pro)
Despite outperforming their first quarter shipment YoY, Sony did not raise their 20mil estimate.

In other words, Sony was looking to either maintain, or have a small growth in total PS4 Slim sales.
If we estimate that Sony was aiming for growth of Slim and Pro to contribute the balance of sales...

That means they’re looking at:
PS4 Slim: ~18 million
PS4 Pro: ~ 2 million

You can +/- 500k, give or take depending on whether you view 18 mil is too high too low, but in general it’s definitely within that ballpark.

For a product that is planned to be sold in the market for 5 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) to only have a sales target of around 2 million means one thing.

Sony was not expecting PS4 Pro to be a big seller.

The product, at least for this fiscal year, is positioned to be supplementary, with the idea that it can deliver an additive boost in sales not unlike stuff like XL, etc. The jump in power is giving people the illusion that this was a special product, but honestly, if you just look at everything we’ve seen regarding the Pro in hindsight... it is everything Sony has claimed it to be. Those who tried to look beyond that are just dreaming.

The lack of any Pro product bundle, or positioning to take advantage of holiday sales.
The fact that marketing was notably muted, as seen by the lower ad spend by Sony.
The fact that PS4 Pro is undershipped in Asian regions, with healthy stock supply only in Mar/Apr.

With that being said, I would not yet say PS4 Pro is doing well.

I would say that “as of Nov/Dec”, they’re probably within expectations, but Nov/Dec is a nebulous two months of extremely high sales driven by pricing and deals; not to mention Nov is the launch month for Pro, that the ratio % of Pro:Slim might be misleading of how sales will trend once we’re out of the launch month into the slower Q1-Q3 periods.

If you were to ask me what would constitute as a success for Pro, given Sony’s 20mil context, it would be for Pro: Slim ratio to be around 25-30 : 75-70 for January, February and March, while PS4 Slim sales has shown minimal drop from previous year’s YoY sales, enough for Pro to make up for the loss in sales by being additive to the total.

If it fails to deliver that 25-30% ratio, then I would consider Pro to be disappointing.

 

[Norse]

It surprises me the percentage of Pros is so low, goes to show that sometime our perception doesn't align with the market. I also find it hard to understand how the X1 is keeping pace in the US.

I need to see how the percentages change, 25~33% was what I was expecting.

Xbone BC is pretty awesome. You still can play most of your 360 games plus play the ones you may have missed. And at better frame rates. It's pretty nice to have all your xbla titles as well. And Scorpio will just improve it all.

You have your Google/iTunes apps on your phone that you bought many generations ago...That is how Xbox will be.

 

[Leyasu]

All them xbones gonna be on ebay after the scalebound cancellation.

 

[Janet Restrepo]

I wonder how embarrassingly low the 3DS numbers are for December (and January) given that Nintendo still hasn't restocked stores since November.

 

[madmackem]

It surprises me the percentage of Pros is so low, goes to show that sometime our perception doesn't align with the market. I also find it hard to understand how the X1 is keeping pace in the US.

I need to see how the percentages change, 25~33% was what I was expecting.

Sales bundled games etc are the reasons Xbox sells in the us, ms ain't daft they need USA as it's doing so badly elsewhere. Ms where never going to let thier core market turn into a bloodbath.

 

[madmackem]

I think Scorpio will do better than the pro (in NPD/US), Xbox one owners have spent the last few years being told how their box is underpowered and can't do 1080p, this solves that. Also there will be people who switched to PS4 from Xbox because it was more powerful (the Scorpio announcement giving them reason to hold off on pro for now) and will switch back knowing many of their old 360 games will be waiting to be added to their download queue. Assuming Sony doesn't add 4k bluray it will have that over the competition as people upgrade their tv's.

I think that maybe the pro was a tad premature, no one was really asking for a new console and next year it's gonna look lame specs wise compares to what we're hearing about Scorpio it's just whether MS can keep the price down!

Lame? That's a bit of an overstatement at this point all we know is 4.2tf v 6tf we don't know about cpu or ram.

 

[Janet Restrepo]

Sales bundled games etc are the reasons Xbox sells in the us, ms ain't daft they need USA as it's doing so badly elsewhere. Ms where never going to let thier core market turn into a bloodbath.

PS4 had much better sales during the holidays than Xbox. I got a PS4 slim bundle for 189 at Target.

 

[Zil33184]

Kuchera and Gies already with open arms waiting.

You hit the nail on the head. I believe Kuchera got his start trolling PS2 on the Ars open forum.

 

[Putty]

Some individuals in here are clearly living in cloud cuckoo land. And it must be said ....proper console warrior individuals....As an "insider" reading it all....I get all warm and fuzzy 8)

 

[DocSeuss]

I dunno why you're freelance when you could probably be full time with Polygon.

I can aim.

 

[benny_a]

When talking about PS4 Pro, I find it weird most of the time people don't factor in Sony's ”20 million PS4s" fiscal year target as part of the analysis and positioning of where Sony estimated the Pro to sell and where their position is.

People reading on this forum have their own ideas and projections based on nothing but hopes and dreams and the believe they are average consumers. They are not bound by what Sony thinks their device will sell.

Also it's boring to think a niche device in a niche segment in the video game industry is doing around expectations. Even a little bit below is boring.

We need BOMBAS. Now that software success has been muddied so much with the ever-present secondary revenue stream in big budget titles at least we have hardware.

 

[Interficium]

It's like folks aren't aware I work in the industry or something.

I've been a freelance games journalist for four years, and a consultant for almost two (I get the dates messed up from time to time).

This is the saddest thing I've ever read.

Spoiler

just kidding, this is actually it

Okay, but the rest of the world isn't anything to shout about, marketwise. It's always weird to me when people bring this up. The US alone is the biggest market (not counting China, but we're talking console sales, and most of China's money is mobile/PC iirc) by a huge margin. The other markets combined barely make a dent in that.

 

[bombshell]

2015:
XB1: ~4930K
PS4: ~5720K

2016
XB1: ~4725k
PS4: ~5088k

XB1: down ~205k YoY (-4%)
PS4: down ~632k YoY (-11%)

MS PR doing work again.

They had a lot of people convinced these last few days that they were up for the year in 2016 compared to 2015, thanks to their masterful use of commas. It's less down than PS4 in the US, so that's still something. The PS4 is up for the year worldwide though, so the downward trend it's seeing in the US is being picked up by its continuing worldwide success.

 

[DasPenguin]

Those pro sales.. guess Sony shouldve spent the extra $10 on the UHD player.

What would that accomplish? 20 more consoles sold? But I might be wrong. Maybe this is the year that physical media makes a comeback. People will stop streaming stuff and every store will be filled with discs. Blockbuster will come back and make a killing.

Or maybe it's just a small, minor detail/upgrade that some enthusiasts love. Like the Pro or eventually Scorpio.

 

[OléGunner]

Well it's nice to know that your industry analysis is as good as your game criticism.

Hahaha oh wow

What would that accomplish? 20 more consoles sold? But I might be wrong. Maybe this is the year that physical media makes a comeback. People will stop streaming stuff and every store will be filled with discs. Blockbuster will come back and make a killing.

Or maybe it's just a small, minor detail/upgrade that some enthusiasts love. Like the Pro or eventually Scorpio.

The UHD thing feels like a meme at this point tbqh.
Including it would've added to the price of Pro and likely not increased sales by 20%+.

I'm lost why gaf people keep bringing it up so as to bash any Pro sales figure.

 

[kyser73]

When talking about PS4 Pro, I find it weird most of the time people don’t factor in Sony’s “20 million PS4s” fiscal year target as part of the analysis and positioning of where Sony estimated the Pro to sell and where their position is.

Let’s run by the facts that we know:
Last fiscal year, Sony shipped 17.7 million PS4s.
This fiscal year, Sony aims to ship 20 million PS4s (inc.Pro)
Despite outperforming their first quarter shipment YoY, Sony did not raise their 20mil estimate.

In other words, Sony was looking to either maintain, or have a small growth in total PS4 Slim sales.
If we estimate that Sony was aiming for growth of Slim and Pro to contribute the balance of sales...

That means they’re looking at:
PS4 Slim: ~18 million
PS4 Pro: ~ 2 million

You can +/- 500k, give or take depending on whether you view 18 mil is too high too low, but in general it’s definitely within that ballpark.

For a product that is planned to be sold in the market for 5 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar) to only have a sales target of around 2 million means one thing.

Sony was not expecting PS4 Pro to be a big seller.

The product, at least for this fiscal year, is positioned to be supplementary, with the idea that it can deliver an additive boost in sales not unlike stuff like XL, etc. The jump in power is giving people the illusion that this was a special product, but honestly, if you just look at everything we’ve seen regarding the Pro in hindsight... it is everything Sony has claimed it to be. Those who tried to look beyond that are just dreaming.

The lack of any Pro product bundle, or positioning to take advantage of holiday sales.
The fact that marketing was notably muted, as seen by the lower ad spend by Sony.
The fact that PS4 Pro is undershipped in Asian regions, with healthy stock supply only in Mar/Apr.

With that being said, I would not yet say PS4 Pro is doing well.

I would say that “as of Nov/Dec”, they’re probably within expectations, but Nov/Dec is a nebulous two months of extremely high sales driven by pricing and deals; not to mention Nov is the launch month for Pro, that the ratio % of Pro:Slim might be misleading of how sales will trend once we’re out of the launch month into the slower Q1-Q3 periods.

If you were to ask me what would constitute as a success for Pro, given Sony’s 20mil context, it would be for Pro: Slim ratio to be around 25-30 : 75-70 for January, February and March, while PS4 Slim sales has shown minimal drop from previous year’s YoY sales, enough for Pro to make up for the loss in sales by being additive to the total.

If it fails to deliver that 25-30% ratio, then I would consider Pro to be disappointing.

This is an unreasonably good post, setting out a logical success/fail state based on actual information.

No idea why it's in this thread, but it's good.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

It surprises me the percentage of Pros is so low, goes to show that sometime our perception doesn't align with the market. I also find it hard to understand how the X1 is keeping pace in the US.

I need to see how the percentages change, 25~33% was what I was expecting.

Doesn't shock me, lots of people on gaf called it.

Price is always king, plus Pro seems largely pointless if you don't have 4K