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Wkd BO 03•24-26•17 - Beasteality reigns, wee Life for "Teenagers" with attitude @ BO

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El Topo

Member
That Black Widow movie was never gonna get made, but it is now definitely never gonna get made. People are done with ScarJo.

That movie was never going to happen, given how often Feige talked about how they really want to do it. I doubt people "are done with ScarJo" though. It's not like she is in a ton of movies.
 

Branduil

Member
We still haven't heard about a Warcraft sequel even though the movie made 10 times as much in China as everywhere else.
 
Is there even material for a Gits Sequel? I thought it was only one movie?

There's a whole anime series dude.

That Black Widow movie was never gonna get made, but it is now definitely never gonna get made. People are done with ScarJo.

People aren't done with her now, she never had that much star power to begin with. Everyone thought she could pull in audiences just because Lucy did well when she hasn't managed to lead a movie sinse.

On a Black Widow movie, it was never going to happen. Their are plenty of better female characters with actual interesting power that can get movies.
 

kswiston

Member
We still haven't heard about a Warcraft sequel even though the movie made 10 times as much in China as everywhere else.

By the time you account for the smaller studio cut in China (25% vs around 55% domestic) and the fact that China has a very small home video/tv/streaming ancillary market, $1 made in the US box office is worth $4-5 made in the Chinese box office.
 
Production budget is apparently just 110 million though. I suspect foreign gross will be higher (greater tolerance for weird / niche), so maybe it can do double budget anyway. That shouldn't be too hard. It's acceptable for sci-fi releases anyway.

Also, the BO performance has nothing to do with the actors in it. We've been over this before, imo. Additionally, like all success stories, "star power" is only invoked on successes, not duds. So I figure the concept was pretty meaningless to begin with, but people want to believe that success myth more than reality I guess. "work hard and you'll succeed" ahaha, no. And yet they keep saying that.
 

Branduil

Member
Production budget is apparently just 110 million though. I suspect foreign gross will be higher (greater tolerance for weird / niche), so maybe it can do double budget anyway. That shouldn't be too hard. It's acceptable for sci-fi releases anyway.

Also, the BO performance has nothing to do with the actors in it. We've been over this before, imo. Additionally, like all success stories, "star power" is only invoked on successes, not duds. So I figure the concept was pretty meaningless to begin with, but people want to believe that success myth more than reality I guess. "work hard and you'll succeed" ahaha, no. And yet they keep saying that.

You also need to account for marketing budget though. The film is going to have a very hard time just breaking even.
 
Warcraft was purely made as a passion project from Jones. Without someone passionate about the IP no one would know what do with a sequel.
 

Ridley327

Member
People running away from anime like the plague.

Disney had it right all along, releasing Ghibli's movies in limited form only!

Even they don't do that anymore, since GKIDS snatched up the theatrical distribution rights for the Ghibli catalog.
 
You also need to account for marketing budget though. The film is going to have a very hard time just breaking even.

I meant acceptable looking at past BO performances. 2x is pretty common among the 'successful enough to warrant sequel' sci-fi movies. So empirically speaking, without knowing anything else, that seems to be enough.
Also, it's weird to us nerdier people, but sci-fi isn't really a big genre compared to romance and erotica. In written and (audio)visual markets btw. The entire written market for romance is 4.2 billion versus just 0.8 billion on sci-fi. Though that may be due to some degree to sci-fi typically not being very inclusive on anything other than white male. We're now starting to see people waking up to 'hey, maybe we should do, like, more' so maybe that will slowly change a bit. Don't bet on that being quick though.

I will say that James Cameron actually tends to avoid that 'white male only' trap and diversify his cast as well as allow a romance plot or subplot. I would argue that is part of his success.
(most of his movies have a relatively strong female character in it compared to contemporaries)
 

Branduil

Member
I meant acceptable looking at past BO performances. 2x is pretty common among the 'successful enough to warrant sequel' sci-fi movies. So empirically speaking, without knowing anything else, that seems to be enough.
Also, it's weird to us nerdier people, but sci-fi isn't really a big genre compared to romance and erotica. In written and (audio)visual markets btw. The entire written market for romance is 4.2 billion versus just 0.8 billion on sci-fi. Though that may be due to some degree to sci-fi typically not being very inclusive on anything other than white male. We're now starting to see people waking up to 'hey, maybe we should do, like, more' so maybe that will slowly change a bit. Don't bet on that being quick though.

I will say that James Cameron actually tends to avoid that 'white male only' trap and diversify his cast as well as allow a romance plot or subplot. I would argue that is part of his success.
(most of his movies have a relatively strong female character in it compared to contemporaries)

Like 4 of the top 5 grossing movies ever are sci-fi so I'm not sure your point is accurate.
 

3N16MA

Banned
She's become her ex husband?

Not quite. She has more success simply because of her role in the MCU. However she doesn't need to worry about losing roles outside of the MCU because of GitS. She is like Reynolds in that Hollywood will continue to hand her roles despite a subpar performing film.
 

jett

D-Member
Even they don't do that anymore, since GKIDS snatched up the theatrical distribution rights for the Ghibli catalog.

Just when Ghibli slowed down production of anything, heh.

I've always find it sad and simply wasteful how Disney handled Ghibli's movies. Never cared to make them succeed at the western box office.
 

kswiston

Member
Like 4 of the top 5 grossing movies ever are sci-fi so I'm not sure your point is accurate.

It isn't for film. If you look at the Top 50 films in the worldwide box office list, 47 of the 50 are either sci fi, fantasy, or animated features. The other three are Spectre, Skyfall, and Furious 7 which are basically male power fantasies. Escapism is king at the box office.
 

Ridley327

Member
Just when Ghibli slowed down production of anything, heh.

I've always find it sad and simply wasteful how Disney handled Ghibli's movies. Never cared to make them succeed at the western box office.

I must say that it was nice to be able to see Spirited Away and Princess Mononoke in a regular theater without having to drive hundreds of miles, so GKIDS already has that going for them over Disney's distribution!
 

kswiston

Member
I must say that it was nice to be able to see Spirited Away and Princess Mononoke in a regular theater without having to drive hundreds of miles, so GKIDS already has that going for them over Disney's distribution!

Those were special events limited to a few days no?

Ponyo or The Secret World of Arrietty made more domestically than all the GKids stuff put together.

EDIT: Arrietty made $19M domestic from 1500 venues.The Tale of The Princess Kaguya made $700k from 29 venues.
 

Ridley327

Member
Those were special events limited to a few days no?

Ponyo or The Secret World of Arrietty made more domestically than all the GKids stuff put together.

EDIT: Arrietty made $19M domestic from 1500 venues.The Tale of The Princess Kaguya made $700k from 29 venues.

They were, but they also had screenings for the subtitled versions, which was an absolute ordeal to find back in the day. I hope they do more in the future, though I'm sure their priority right now is trying to get the few remaining Ghibli items brought over.
 

kswiston

Member
Kind of irrelevant since Ghibli is dead now though.

Didn't Miyazaki announce that he was coming out of retirement for the 4th time?


Anyhow, I don't think American audiences particularly like anime. Even the theatrical buzz around Pokemon at the height of its popularity was dead within 18 months of the first film.
 

Branduil

Member
They aren't dead anymore. Miyazaki is in production on another film that he is directing right now.

Well, we'll see how that goes. In any case, their future is gone, since they always chase away every promising young director they've ever had. Or literally kill them with overwork, in Yoshifumi Kondo's case.
 

Slayven

Member
But if GITS does bomb i doubt you will see another anime project for a long time.

And if Wonder Woman tanks, Hollywood will be on that bullshit again about women and lead roles
 

Ridley327

Member
But if GITS does bomb i doubt you will see another anime project for a long time.

And if Wonder Woman tanks, Hollywood will be on that bullshit again about women and lead roles

Akira will probably still happen due to sheer stubbornness on WB's part, but I don't think we'll see much in terms of big budget adaptations otherwise.
 

El Topo

Member
And if Wonder Woman tanks, Hollywood will be on that bullshit again about women and lead roles

I have no faith in WW. That movie will disappoint big time, especially internationally.
I'm also dreading Black Panther. If that movie disappoints internationally, prepare for years of "Well we would cast a black guy for this blockbuster, but international markets..." phrases.
Admittedly I'm probably way too negative on all this.
 

kswiston

Member
Scarlett has that Bridesmaids x Weekend at Bernies thing coming out in a couple of months, and then Avengers next year (along with a voice role in a Wes Anderson animated film that doesn't really count). She will be fine.
 

Slayven

Member
Akira will probably still happen due to sheer stubbornness on WB's part, but I don't think we'll see much in terms of big budget adaptations otherwise.
Akira been happening since i was 12 looking at Wizard magazine in piggy wiggly. It is the Duke Nukem Forever of nerd movies. Especially since they are really doing a blade runner 2.
I have no faith in WW. That movie will disappoint big time, especially internationally.
I'm also dreading Black Panther. If that movie disappoints internationally, prepare for years of "Well we would cast a black guy for this blockbuster, but international markets..." phrases.
Admittedly I'm probably way too negative on all this.

I think BP will be alright having Feb by itself
 
But if GITS does bomb i doubt you will see another anime project for a long time.

And if Wonder Woman tanks, Hollywood will be on that bullshit again about women and lead roles
On the other hand if Death Note does well we'll see Netflix fund more live-action anime. Regardless, we're still getting video game movies despite bomb after bomb so nothing is ever set in stone.
 

kswiston

Member
Weekend Studio Estimates

1) The Boss Baby - $49M
2) Beauty and the Beast - $47.5M (-47%) - $395M total
3) Ghost in the Shell - $19.0M
4) Power Rangers - $14.5M (-64%) - $65M total
5) Kong Skull Island - $8.8M (-40%) - $148M total
6) Logan - $6.2M (-40%) - $212M total
7) Get Out - $5.8M (-34%) - $157M total
8) Life - $5.6M (-55%) - $22M total
9) CHiPs - $4.0M (-44%) - $14M total


I'll update the missing films as they come in. Figure around $19M for GitS
 

3N16MA

Banned
Weekend Studio Estimates

1) The Boss Baby - $49M
2) Beauty and the Beast - $47.5M - $395M total
3) Ghost in the Shell -
4) Power Rangers - $14.5M - $65M total
5) Kong Skull Island - $8.8M - $148M total
6) Get Out - $6.8M - $157M total
7) Logan - $6.2M - $212M total
8) Life -
9) CHiPs - $4.0M - $14M total


I'll update the missing films as they come in. Figure around $19M for GitS

Paramount is so ashamed of GitS that they refuse to release the numbers.
 

kswiston

Member
$876M worldwide for Beauty and the Beast after a ~$95M worldwide weekend. It should eventually fall somewhere in the $1.1-1.2B range not counting Japan.

EDIT: I fixed the range a bit. $1.2B could happen with good legs through Easter.
 
But if GITS does bomb i doubt you will see another anime project for a long time.
How many times does it happen for anime and games and they still screw it up and repeat.
They already flopped the biggest anime.

Don't know if it technically counts but Pokemon will likely happen no matter what, just too much money potential for Hollywood to avoid.
 
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