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Wkd BO 0519-2117 - Express elevator hauls Alien to top, passing everything
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
- 90% of gaming side threads
Kenzodielocke
Banned
That low?
I would have gone to GotG2 earlier, but my wife wants to go as well, which then means coordinating a baby-sitter.
Going by myself is easy since my wife and kid go to bed at 8pm most nights.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
That's the bet I am placing as well. D.C. needs a good movie, and I hope this delivers.
Bah, you would have found a way if it was an Alpha Flight movie
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Current Sunday projected drops are 25.4% for Guardians 2 and 28.3% for Alien. The projection for Guardians 2 is already pretty generous, so if the actuals flip their ranking for the weekend, it'd have to be because Alien took a disastrous dive today. I think that's unlikely even with how frontloaded it already seems to be, since it's a holiday in Canada tomorrow, so Sunday will be slighty stronger than normal.
This is what I was thinking as well. I may have thought differently if not for the gap being as small as it is and the weak WoM.
Only because they would make it a requirement for keeping your Canadian citizenship, and offer some Tim Hortons vouchers with every purchase.
JetBlackPanda
Member
Alien beat guardians this week? Wow.
Triggerhappytel
Member
Do you think GotG2 will pass a billion at the box office?
No. Maybe $850M if the legs hold up.
The margin is so small i would be shocked if Guardians DIDN"T edge it out.
Has there even been a 1 and 2 that close?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/closecalls.htm?page=opening&p=.htm
There's been a handful of times I can recall where estimates had #1 and #2 tied, as well.
Goddamn tthat was a shitty week
Terminator was almost beaten by a documentary on horror movies
And Robocop was almost beaten by a rerelease of Snow White in the seven dwarves.
This shit is fascinating, now I feel like Kswis is under serving the community.
Covenant didn't do as well as I was hoping, but not a bomb. Probably less than Fox wanted.
This narrative that the original BR theatrical cut is bad has become tiresome.
This narrative that the original BR theatrical cut is bad has become tiresome.
Anyone who says something different from the consensus is wrong
At the start of the year, Pirates was the biggest wildcard for me. I was optimistic a year ago but seeing Alice flop so badly (admittedly, entirely different reasons and circumstances) made me second guess myself.
I'll say 95m 4-day opening weekend domestic, finishing with 210m. Globally I can see it hitting 800m. I think kwis you said early tracking was pointing at it possibly being bigger in China than US(?), in which case it could go higher than 800m.
I'll say 95m 4-day opening weekend domestic, finishing with 210m. Globally I can see it hitting 800m. I think kwis you said early tracking was pointing at it possibly being bigger in China than US(?), in which case it could go higher than 800m.
AngmarsKing701
Member
Enjoyed GotG2 this past w/e. Good follow up to a thoroughly entertaining origin movie.
Alien and Pirates 5 are both more likely to see my whole family attend, as I think my wife might be willing to see either of those. She is NOT a superhero movie person.
I'm thinking WW will be the first DC movie I attend in theaters (assuming the Nolan Batman movies don't count).
Alien and Pirates 5 are both more likely to see my whole family attend, as I think my wife might be willing to see either of those. She is NOT a superhero movie person.
I'm thinking WW will be the first DC movie I attend in theaters (assuming the Nolan Batman movies don't count).
Razgriz-Specter
Member
Remember when so many were saying there was no way it wouldn't
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
well, I just quote myself on Pirates:
So about 200 domestic, 1 billion ww. It's kind of a boring guess since the totals of this series have been stable.
Now, how much this 'where is the PR except bad PR' game is going to affect that, is anyone's guess. I'd say about 25% of people might be influenced by it, so 150 domestic and 750 ww? Also, it's worth noting the Chinese premiere has apparently already happened. So that's where they're betting on getting the money from.
So about 200 domestic, 1 billion ww. It's kind of a boring guess since the totals of this series have been stable.
Now, how much this 'where is the PR except bad PR' game is going to affect that, is anyone's guess. I'd say about 25% of people might be influenced by it, so 150 domestic and 750 ww? Also, it's worth noting the Chinese premiere has apparently already happened. So that's where they're betting on getting the money from.
Jawmuncher
Member
Hoping we get one more alien as was said earlier so we can at least close out whatever Ridley is trying to do as a prequel thing. So many unanswered questions still.
Plasticine
Member
They need to lure Paul WS Anderson back to the Alien franchise. Make Milla the female lead. It will print money.
How can you bet something that Bobby owns?
How can you bet something that Bobby owns?
Who is Bobby?
Violence Jack
Member
I'm still curious about Valerian and Blade Runner. The optimist in me is guessing around $110 million domestic for BR. But with Valerian, I have no idea what it will bring in.
I think you might as well call them Fatman and Little boy
Wow.
Valerian isn't getting anywhere the marketing it needs
FullMetalx117
Member
Gonna go watch Alien tonight! Love sci fi space movies and I want to see more of them green lighted
If you just use average ticket price inflation, GotG 1's domestic total adjusts to $356M.
However, ticket inflation is not the best measure in modern years, since 3D surcharge and more expensive IMAX/PLF tickets mess with the totals. We get actual average ticket prices for each year (and they are listed on BOM), but individual films vary. As such, 2D releases with no IMAX probably sold more tickets than suggested by the average ticket price, while 3D blockbusters sell less. Most theatre chains also offer discounts to children, and sometimes to students, so demographics also mess things up a bit. Films that skew younger, sell more tickets than the average ticket price suggests.
The overall average ticket price only raised 28 cents (3.5%) between 2010 and 2014. Then thanks to Star Wars, Jurassic World, Age of Ultron, and a couple others, we saw a 26 cent jump from 2014 to 2015. Last year saw another 22 cent jump on the back of the 300M+ films (plus left over TFA cash). No doubt record IMAX and PLF sales were driving the increase, rather than theatre chains deciding that they needed to bump prices up by 6% in 2 years when the ticket prices had only jumped 3.5% in the previous 4.
Overseas, average ticket prices are more or less stagnant in recent years. Some territories have gone up, while others have stayed constant or decreased a bit thanks to competition between online ticket agencies or theatre chains (such is the case in China I believe).
I don't have access to any data on current exchange rates, but GOTG1 would have made $350M overseas using late February 2017 rates, instead of the $440M it earned using the 2014 rates. I don't believe that today is all that different in most major markets. With inflation, that total is maybe $10M higher.
So to wrap up a long-winded post, GOTG1 would have earned about $685M worldwide with current exchange rates and no ticket price inflation. With average ticket price inflation, you get about $720M, keeping in mind the issues with that conversion.
GOTG2 will earn $360-380M domestic and $460-480M overseas by my best guess. If it falls outside of those ranges, it won't be by much. That gives you a total of $820M on the low end and $860M on the high end.
I honestly have no clue.
Man of Steel was $377M ($307M with 2017 ExR), BvS was $543M, and Suicide Squad was $420M (with no China). Given some of the changes in the superhero market since 2013, and current exchange rates I would guess $300-400M. I don't think that it will be as high as Suicide Squad, even with the Chinese release, but I would be surprised if it made less than $300M overseas.
Throw the coffee in the trash and grab a butter tart.
$900m domestic, $3bn WW. We tear down the monuments built for the false god James Cameron and fall to our knees to worship Luc Besson.
Plasticine
Member
An urban legend. If you say, "Marvel sold their movie rights to save the company," three times, he'll appear behind you.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Bobby's World?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
This is going to be one of the toughest weekends of the year to predict, IMO. Doesn't help that Baywatch is having a 5-day opening. I think the review embargo is lifting for both tomorrow, and I feel like both of these movies could benefit from a strong critical response.
There's signs for both that they may disappoint, but for now, my gut is they'll both do very well. The market seems primed for it.
There's signs for both that they may disappoint, but for now, my gut is they'll both do very well. The market seems primed for it.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I can see it performing similar to 21 Jump Street & Central Intelligence. Both in opening weekend (if you just look at Fri/Sat/Sun) and eventual total.
Obliterator
Member
I'll go 215 Domestic and 650 international on Pirates but really I have no idea. I just can't gauge what interest is still like with that franchise/ how it will do in China