BurnOutBrighter
Banned
Exclusives are going to make a big comeback early next gen, you can count on it.
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Your predictions for The Big Three at the end of The Next Generation.
- Thread starter Mama Robotnik
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OldJadedGamer
Banned
Exclusives mostly only matter at the beginning of the gen. That is when there are the most fence sitters.
Silly.Mikey
Banned
Especially if lets say Naughty Dog decide to go multiplatform, Sony is really up shits creek.
TwEE-N-Toast
Banned
Microsoft will have few if any exclusive games and continue to make gaming a last priority with the xbox, instead focusing on multimedia apps. In a world where more and more people already have these apps built into their smart T.Vs and not behind Microsoft's paywall, only the die hard Microsoft fans and those who want a large gamer score will be interested.
Nintendo has the best chance at releasing a console that knows its a console and plays up the strengths of a console. If instead they try to become a cheap p.c like their competitors with all the inconveniences that implies they will fail to take off.
Sony will not release a ps4 and instead open an art gallery, Sony fans will think this is a right move to "mature" gaming and be surprised when nobody cares.
Nintendo has the best chance at releasing a console that knows its a console and plays up the strengths of a console. If instead they try to become a cheap p.c like their competitors with all the inconveniences that implies they will fail to take off.
Sony will not release a ps4 and instead open an art gallery, Sony fans will think this is a right move to "mature" gaming and be surprised when nobody cares.
HocusPocus
Member
Microsoft will mirror their success with 360.
Sony will continue to loose market share.
Nintendo will have a successful product, but won't hit the highs of the wii.
Sony will continue to loose market share.
Nintendo will have a successful product, but won't hit the highs of the wii.
Xplatformer
Member
I don't think the Japanese government will allow that to happen. I'm not kidding.
My problem with Sony is their hardware. I hate the DS3 and every Playstation controller, I think Live is better than PSN and I hate the amount of jaggies I see in my cross platform titles (like anyone other than 1st party are going to use spus for AA).
Sony's SOFTWARE is the only reason I own a PS3 and not a 360. MLB The Show, Uncharted and God of War are enough to ensure that my next console is a Sony branded one.
I hate the other things about the console, but I'd hate not having those 3 titles more, and to me owning more than one console will limit my spending options for software.
Playstation exclusives, perhaps.
As long as Naughty Dog, Sucker Punch and Media Molecule are still developing games I'm going to keep on buying Sony's consoles.
Snowden's Secret
Banned
Wii U - Strong Nintendo exclusives; differentiating features; likely cheaper; good marketing
X-Box 3 - Good marketing; important multi-plat games are associated with X-Box; achievements and friends list may bleed people one gen to the next
Playstation 4 - Trophies and friends list carry over; tit for tat there isn't really a reason to pick up an X-Box over a Playstation; Sony still mostly the only company going after "traditional" gamers in any real sense which could give them the lead out of the gate
pharmboy044
Member
Sony owns them.
Hopefully but with 3 studios closing in one year, you never know how long they can keep their studios open.
Sega?
Sega was a third-rate manufacturer of children's toys, primarily in debt to its own management, and with no viability as a going concern. Sony is a massive conglomerate with tentacles in every industry and nearly 200,000 employees, primarily in debt to major banks which would suddenly look very rickety if they had to write off that debt, and is primarily held down by legacy costs. This is why one wasn't a valid bailout candidate and the other is.
This wouldn't necessarily save gaming hardware per se, but everyone who could feasibly end up running the company agrees that hardware's a core competency and one of the largest potential profit centers.
Most of the PS3 losses are directly related to R&D, building out added capacity for a PS2-scale hit, and the extreme cost of Blu-ray diodes during launch window; the move to commodity hardware and the commoditization of BRD honestly means there's far less risk in launching even a total dud than there historically has been. Result: if Kaz stays he does what he's doing now, if he gets defenestrated someone from the hardware side of the company takes over and goes slightly higher risk/reward (but still not as far out as Cell probably), if the entire house of cards collapses and we get a GM style reorganization, whoever the Japanese government installs can do whatever the fuck he wants now that he's not pissing away PS3 lifetime losses a year making Bravias.
That's what they're trying to do, and is the main reason why the next Xbox will get a headstart.
Canis lupus
Member
lol
most def. amazing exclusive launch games are potential system sellers.
Factual prediction : The cheaper console will sells the best.
Nintendo : Will do whatever they can to not lose money.
Sony : Will still bleed money.
Microsoft : Will start by bleeding money but will gains tons after a few years.
I can definitly see one of the big 3 quitting the video game business next gen, and a surprise newcomer will arrive.
Sony going back to Nintendo next-next-gen (only for video game) might be theirs best decision if PS4 fails.
Nintendo : Will do whatever they can to not lose money.
Sony : Will still bleed money.
Microsoft : Will start by bleeding money but will gains tons after a few years.
I can definitly see one of the big 3 quitting the video game business next gen, and a surprise newcomer will arrive.
Sony going back to Nintendo next-next-gen (only for video game) might be theirs best decision if PS4 fails.
I don't get the reasoning. I think Sony will come second next time, after Nintendo. Sony still has plenty of exclusives. It's Microsoft that struggles in this area nowadays. Sony were 9 million behind ms worldwide when PS3 launched. Last i heard that was down to 4 million. If they don't mess up the launch this time, they should pull it off.
ScreenSplitter
Member
Depends how different X3/PS4 are in terms of technology. Aside from that, it will just be Sony and Microsoft either using their own studios or throwing vast amounts of money at third parties. Only big exclusives I can see are ones that use either the Kinect or the Wii U Pad in a completely unique and necessary way.
Exclusives don't make business sense (for third parties) really, unless they're owned by the bigger company.
They can't. Sony have owned them for years. The main distinction between them and Insomniac, Insomniac always had the intention of going multiplatform at some point. What will happen with Naughty Dog is they will keep making the multi-million dollar budget, cinematic titles like Uncharted and TLOU, and very little else. It's a shame really, as the best memories I have of them are fairly simplistic platformers. Bigger doesn't necessarily mean better (though I mean, it certainly has so far for ND).
Chuck Norris
Banned
Hard to pick, the generation could go any which way. All I know is I think Sony have the most to prove and they know it. Despite the fact that they were on top last gen, they are heading into next gen in a better position. Less arrogant and more open. Development will be much easier.
Microsoft won't rest on their laurels and despite what people say about Kinect etc., MS won't go into next gen aiming for the casual first. They will aim for the hardcore then realign for the casuals in a few years.
I think Nintendos plans can be hit and miss. Not sure which way it could go right now. I think the best thing going for them at the moment is that Sony and Microsoft have not unveiled what they are doing.
Microsoft won't rest on their laurels and despite what people say about Kinect etc., MS won't go into next gen aiming for the casual first. They will aim for the hardcore then realign for the casuals in a few years.
I think Nintendos plans can be hit and miss. Not sure which way it could go right now. I think the best thing going for them at the moment is that Sony and Microsoft have not unveiled what they are doing.
First off, I can see the whole videogame industry contracting to about 60-75% of what it currently is at, due to the continued stagnating worldwide economy, more people losing interest in home console gaming, and more people spending time on Netflix/Facebook/apps/smartphone games.
Xbox 3 - MS focuses even less on first-party releases and more on providing services/set-top boxes. This will be a primary element in their plan to synchronize all your electronics via Win8 and you will see tons of crossover (play a small XBLA-ish game on your WP8 smartphone, cloud save it and pick it up on the bigscreen via Xbox 3, design resources in a Halo "forge" mode sandbox on your Win8 PC, instantly sync digital downloaded movies and music between console/PC/tablet/phone). The main focus of the platform is not to stop Nintendo/Sony but to prevent Apple from entering the living room at any cost. Will get token American 3rd party support and be pretty successful over here in the US, and do a fairly decent job of keeping Apple out of the living room but for how long? MS won't even bother trying to push the system in Japan or continental Europe, so no cool RPG exclusives anymore.
PS4 - Sony makes a more reasonably-priced system that doesn't take too long to achieve profitability. They also attempt to push services, but not to the extent MS does (and cross-compatibility/convergence feels kinda half-assed). But they'll have the lead over MS on exclusives - new first party IPs, more experimental games, and continued niche Japanese support (NIS, Gust). Comes in third place again worldwide but it's a Gamecube-like 3rd place (where the system makes money overall for Sony and comes close to second place in sales). It takes second in Europe and Japan due to mutual apathy from MS and the populace regarding Xbox 3.
Vita - Support drops off in a short while, but the system gets a small bit of life because it becomes relevant to a small niche group (could be something like VN devs, or homebrew devs). The best titles for the system get ported all over the place.
WiiU - Will definitely not be the sales behemoth the Wii was, due to a confusing message and lack of hype with casual consumers. Seriously, Wii's concept is very straightforward (see the controller? you can swing it like a golf club in the golf game!), but try explaining "asymmetrical gameplay" to the masses. I've watched both E3 presentations and still have no fucking clue about what the system can and can't do. That being said, Nintendo's conservative development specs, lower price than its contemporaries, and 1st party franchises will mean the system will still do well. Although, I think 1st party development will become strained due to HD games requiring more resources and development time... we will see a situation arise similar to the Gamecube where 1st party titles feel rushed and corners cut. But we will also see a few spectacular games, that may not be nearly on the sales level of Mario/Zelda/Pokemon, but devoted fans will love regardless. And a revitalized Virtual Console with a more open downloading system. Nintendo will try to do online better than before, but it'll still be no where near where Live/PSN is currently, let alone next-gen Live/PSN. Western 3rd party support will be PS3/360 up-ports at first and then rushed PS4/Xbox3 downports, though some of the smaller, pro-Nintendo western studios will see success on the downloadables (Renegade Kid, Wayforward, Shin'en). Japanese 3rd party support is the biggest question. I definitely think the system will be #1 in Japan (and possibly Europe but I don't know about the US), but don't really know if the Japanese 3rd parties will take to it, since they'll be all focused on 3DS (with the occasional PS4 support). In fact, seeing whether or not JP 3rd parties take to the WiiU is thing I'm most interested in. Perhaps if Nintendo moneyhats next Monhan and DQ to come out exclusively on WiiU and creates an ecosystem for JP 3rd parties early on. But at E3 all I saw were western 3rd party portups.
3DS - Becomes the primary platform in Japan, like the DS was from 2005-2009. Dragon Quest 11 will be on it, and will be the platform to own for RPG fans. Won't take off worldwide in the way the DS does, but still ends up being very successful, selling between the GBA and original GB.
Apple - Not really relevant in a "games" discussion as much as the usual suspects like to rave about smartphone games being something more than 5 minute time wasters with bad controls, or ports of DS games I've played 5 years ago. But I'll include them anyways. I think (read: strongly hope) next gen that we will see the first slight signs of slipping from Apple.
PC - Still hanging in there, a continuation of great indie titles, and strange Eastern European games. Battle for the DD space gets even more heated. Japanese developers still don't give a shit about it.
The Real Winners will be the indie developers, Eastern European/developing nations with mid-sized studios and low payroll costs, and Japanese devs with modest budgets. The losers will be the big budget "AAA" studios who fail to turn a hit. I expect even more company closings this upcoming gen, especially if my prediction of a smaller market for gaming comes into effect.
Xbox 3 - MS focuses even less on first-party releases and more on providing services/set-top boxes. This will be a primary element in their plan to synchronize all your electronics via Win8 and you will see tons of crossover (play a small XBLA-ish game on your WP8 smartphone, cloud save it and pick it up on the bigscreen via Xbox 3, design resources in a Halo "forge" mode sandbox on your Win8 PC, instantly sync digital downloaded movies and music between console/PC/tablet/phone). The main focus of the platform is not to stop Nintendo/Sony but to prevent Apple from entering the living room at any cost. Will get token American 3rd party support and be pretty successful over here in the US, and do a fairly decent job of keeping Apple out of the living room but for how long? MS won't even bother trying to push the system in Japan or continental Europe, so no cool RPG exclusives anymore.
PS4 - Sony makes a more reasonably-priced system that doesn't take too long to achieve profitability. They also attempt to push services, but not to the extent MS does (and cross-compatibility/convergence feels kinda half-assed). But they'll have the lead over MS on exclusives - new first party IPs, more experimental games, and continued niche Japanese support (NIS, Gust). Comes in third place again worldwide but it's a Gamecube-like 3rd place (where the system makes money overall for Sony and comes close to second place in sales). It takes second in Europe and Japan due to mutual apathy from MS and the populace regarding Xbox 3.
Vita - Support drops off in a short while, but the system gets a small bit of life because it becomes relevant to a small niche group (could be something like VN devs, or homebrew devs). The best titles for the system get ported all over the place.
WiiU - Will definitely not be the sales behemoth the Wii was, due to a confusing message and lack of hype with casual consumers. Seriously, Wii's concept is very straightforward (see the controller? you can swing it like a golf club in the golf game!), but try explaining "asymmetrical gameplay" to the masses. I've watched both E3 presentations and still have no fucking clue about what the system can and can't do. That being said, Nintendo's conservative development specs, lower price than its contemporaries, and 1st party franchises will mean the system will still do well. Although, I think 1st party development will become strained due to HD games requiring more resources and development time... we will see a situation arise similar to the Gamecube where 1st party titles feel rushed and corners cut. But we will also see a few spectacular games, that may not be nearly on the sales level of Mario/Zelda/Pokemon, but devoted fans will love regardless. And a revitalized Virtual Console with a more open downloading system. Nintendo will try to do online better than before, but it'll still be no where near where Live/PSN is currently, let alone next-gen Live/PSN. Western 3rd party support will be PS3/360 up-ports at first and then rushed PS4/Xbox3 downports, though some of the smaller, pro-Nintendo western studios will see success on the downloadables (Renegade Kid, Wayforward, Shin'en). Japanese 3rd party support is the biggest question. I definitely think the system will be #1 in Japan (and possibly Europe but I don't know about the US), but don't really know if the Japanese 3rd parties will take to it, since they'll be all focused on 3DS (with the occasional PS4 support). In fact, seeing whether or not JP 3rd parties take to the WiiU is thing I'm most interested in. Perhaps if Nintendo moneyhats next Monhan and DQ to come out exclusively on WiiU and creates an ecosystem for JP 3rd parties early on. But at E3 all I saw were western 3rd party portups.
3DS - Becomes the primary platform in Japan, like the DS was from 2005-2009. Dragon Quest 11 will be on it, and will be the platform to own for RPG fans. Won't take off worldwide in the way the DS does, but still ends up being very successful, selling between the GBA and original GB.
Apple - Not really relevant in a "games" discussion as much as the usual suspects like to rave about smartphone games being something more than 5 minute time wasters with bad controls, or ports of DS games I've played 5 years ago. But I'll include them anyways. I think (read: strongly hope) next gen that we will see the first slight signs of slipping from Apple.
PC - Still hanging in there, a continuation of great indie titles, and strange Eastern European games. Battle for the DD space gets even more heated. Japanese developers still don't give a shit about it.
The Real Winners will be the indie developers, Eastern European/developing nations with mid-sized studios and low payroll costs, and Japanese devs with modest budgets. The losers will be the big budget "AAA" studios who fail to turn a hit. I expect even more company closings this upcoming gen, especially if my prediction of a smaller market for gaming comes into effect.
Corrected
ChiefofCitadelSecurity
Member
Dat first party and Japanese support then again I wouldn't be surprised if they went over to Nintendo's court.
Future PhaZe
Member
Sony - Vitas stop being produced in the middle of next gen. PS4's enjoy a Gamecube like success due to good pricing strategy and brand name loyalty. Come in third in the console business until Naughty Dog finds a way to buy themselves out like Bungie did which leads to PS5 getting the Dreamcast treatment.
Microsoft - Attacks the market with everything they have financially, taking advatange of the Wii U's lack of marketability in comparison to the Wii and lack of power compared to Xbox 8. Sells the system at a loss initially. Improved version of Kinect built into the system. Introduces a cell phone like service which allows people to buy the system on a cheap while paying extra for XBL monthly. Becomes the defacto "app box" for the living room and comes in 1st place.
Nintendo - Wii U enjoys GCN like success, never sold at a loss, but not reaching the sort of appeal that the Wii enjoyed. Terrible third party support. 3DS picks up steam mid-generation and while it doesn't match DS sales they firmly take hold of the handheld market with no sequel to the Vita in sight. Next gen they abandon their oldhat home console tech strategy.
Microsoft - Attacks the market with everything they have financially, taking advatange of the Wii U's lack of marketability in comparison to the Wii and lack of power compared to Xbox 8. Sells the system at a loss initially. Improved version of Kinect built into the system. Introduces a cell phone like service which allows people to buy the system on a cheap while paying extra for XBL monthly. Becomes the defacto "app box" for the living room and comes in 1st place.
Nintendo - Wii U enjoys GCN like success, never sold at a loss, but not reaching the sort of appeal that the Wii enjoyed. Terrible third party support. 3DS picks up steam mid-generation and while it doesn't match DS sales they firmly take hold of the handheld market with no sequel to the Vita in sight. Next gen they abandon their oldhat home console tech strategy.
Napalm_Frank
Member
So close yet so far.
GarciaHotspur
Member
Ahah so hilarious ;p
Americanmushroom
Banned
Lol was reading answers without knowing it was a bump. Funny stuff in here holy crap
loaf of bread
Member
Even funnier than the people shitting on Sony and saying MS would win is the people saying Nintendo would be on top.
Kurt Angle
Member
Apple, Samsung and Chipotle
Schweinehund
Member
I find it extremely funny and surprising that no one was 100% accurate in predicting the future.
/s
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Well, Picard became an Ambassador, Data became Lucasian Chair at Cambridge, and Riker was eventually promoted to Admiral.
lol wow.
HA!
Winterfang
Banned
I'm prepared to be surprised.
Edit: Oh, Old Topic.
Edit: Oh, Old Topic.
AuthenticM
Member
The next time Pachter gets something wrong or people think he's wrong, let's point his detractors to this thread. 
TheBioLover
Member
Haha, this thread is great.
RealityPales
Member
Took me a second to realize these posts were old...
I thought I had missed something.
LOL @ everyone being so wrong...
I thought I had missed something.
LOL @ everyone being so wrong...
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