• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

(Hardware) March 2009 NPD Predictions - Closes April 12

G

gkryhewy

Member
Psychotext said:
Really? YTD 2009 is under 50% of what it was at the same point last year in Japan. That's a pretty drastic drop.
Click to expand...

It ain't 90%, and it's certainly capable of being brought back up with some major software releases (the two Monster Hunter games and WiiSports Resort will qualify).

People keep underestimating Wii numbers (i.e., your August US numbers are crazy), but you're right about one thing - we'll certainly see this year where the trajectory will be headed.
 
P

Psychotext

Member
markatisu said:
Not saying its not a horrific show in Japan, but with no high profile games at all over the first 3 months its not that black and white
Click to expand...
No doubt... but we're assuming a level of impact from these games that may or may not come. It wouldn't be the first time we've been surprised one way or another.

On the whole... time will tell. :D

[Edit - Interestingly gkrykewy you actually predicted lower than me for the Wii in this thread (850k vs 865k), both of us believing we'll see a drop in weekly sales vs February's numbers. As for my August numbers... they're a complete shot in the dark. I didn't even check my previous sales spreadsheet. :lol ]
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
Psychotext said:
I haven't actually seen any monthly numbers for the Wii in the UK so I couldn't really comment on that.
Click to expand...
Nintendo release sales data for the major European markets from time to time and the situation is similar to the US. (Apart from the fact that as frankie_baby said, Wii has been readily available for ~1.5 years.)

25l.jpg


That's January through September 2008.
 
M

markatisu

Member
bafflewaffle said:
day before dsi release hahaha. hopeful next month get solid numbers, sep from dslite
Click to expand...

NPD issued a statement last week they will not mark the difference between DS and DSi

We will have to wait for Nintendo to either issue PR's or have their Quarterly Financial reports
 
B

bafflewaffle

Member
markatisu said:
NPD issued a statement last week they will not mark the difference between DS and DSi

We will have to wait for Nintendo to either issue PR's or have their Quarterly Financial reports
Click to expand...
oh well. thanks for info
 
N

[Nintex]

Member
akilshohen said:
damn, I just woke up and I'm not doing anything until I see those numbers
(my lame ass)
Click to expand...
I can't go to sleep untill I see these numbers and think of the perfect response.

I wonder if the new shiny black box will hold up and keeps us from getting 500 errors
 
T

test_account

XP-39C²
bmf said:
Is it bad that I'm internally buzzing in anticipation of the numbers today? Or is that just the coffee? I'm really looking forward to seeing how Killzone 2 fared against Halo Wars, SFIV, and RE4, and if it's release caused any sort of discernible bump for the system.

I think most of the hardware positions are pretty set at this point, and it will take something pretty interesting to change them.
Click to expand...
I dont think it is bad, i am also looking forward to the sales numbers, and i think it is good that people are looking forward to stuff :) I think that this month is pretty intersting as well, since it has been some big releases like those you mentioned, the 2nd week of Killzone 2, Halo Wars, Resident Evil 5 and maybe Street Fighter 4 as well (SFIV was released last month, but i think it should be interesting to see if SFIV is still in the NPD Top 10 list :)).
 
H

Halvie

Banned
test_account said:
and maybe Street Fighter 4 as well (SFIV was released last month, but i think it should be interesting to see if SFIV is still in the NPD Top 10 list :)).
Click to expand...


Would be a really nice surprise, but I doubt it.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Psychotext said:
both of us believing we'll see a drop in weekly sales vs February's numbers.
Click to expand...

I predicted > 900K for March, and that's still a drop from February's numbers. However, March is usually a slight drop in weekly numbers from February, so I'm trying to predict more on what normal monthly variations are instead of shipments. :D

Psychotext said:
As for my August numbers... they're a complete shot in the dark. I didn't even check my previous sales spreadsheet. :lol ]
Click to expand...

Your August Wii prediction would indicate a drop of almost 50% from the February weekly average, and the Wii would still nearly be outselling the PS3 and 360 combined.
 
T

tzare

Member
PlayStation 2 112K
PlayStation 3 218K
PSP 168K
Xbox 360 330K
Wii 601K
Nintendo DS 563K



RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA 360 938K
POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA NDS 805K
HALO WARS* MICROSOFT 360 639K
RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA PS3 585K
WII FIT W/BALANCE BOARD NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 541K
MLB '09: THE SHOW SONY PS3 305K
KILLZONE 2 SONY PS3 296K
WII PLAY W/REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 281K
MARIO KART W/WHEEL NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 278K
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 360 205K

Are these numbers true?
 
S

Stop It

Perfectly able to grasp the inherent value of the fishing game.
tzare said:
PlayStation 2 112K
PlayStation 3 218K
PSP 168K
Xbox 360 330K
Wii 601K
Nintendo DS 563K



RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA 360 938K
POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA NDS 805K
HALO WARS* MICROSOFT 360 639K
RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA PS3 585K
WII FIT W/BALANCE BOARD NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 541K
MLB '09: THE SHOW SONY PS3 305K
KILLZONE 2 SONY PS3 296K
WII PLAY W/REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 281K
MARIO KART W/WHEEL NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 278K
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 360 205K

Are these numbers true?
Click to expand...
Yes, considering that they came from the NPD post :p
 
P

Psychotext

Member
I'm an utterly ludicrous amount out overall. :lol

[Edit - Decided to work it out and then had a change of heart... I'll wait for the oh so painful results!]
 
adamsapple

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
NPD

PlayStation 2 112K
PlayStation 3 218K
PSP 168K
Xbox 360 330K
Wii 601K
Nintendo DS 563K



Mine

[360] 400k
[NDS] 600k
[PS2] 140k
[PS3] 290k
[PSP] 235k
[WII] 650k


Pretty close (besides PSP)
 
D

doicare

Member
Hahaha wow this month was a cluster fuck of low sales that nobody expected, i'm going to have to do a bit more research next month instead of going with gut feelings.
 
A

apujanata

Member
[360] 430K - 100K off
[NDS] 600K - 37K off
[PS2] 170K - 58K off
[PS3] 310K - 92K off
[PSP] 230K - 62K off
[WII] 750K - 149K off

Total : 498K off

I am killed by the PS2 over prediction. Seems like there are no more legs for PS2. Even with a price cut, it still got very bad weekly rate drop :(
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Minsc said:
430K for a 5 week period (86K/week) coming from 753K in 4 (188K/week) sounds borderline trolling to me. How often has a system seen over a 50% drop month over month in a non-holiday period?
Click to expand...

BishopLamont said:
I'm guessing many people who predict such low numbers are just blindly predicting the numbers. .
Click to expand...

Jonsoncao said:
I just cant believe most of you guys think Wii's weekly sales will drop.....
Click to expand...


The NPD always, ALWAYS delivers.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Code: 
	Me	NPD	Delta
360	428	330	98
NDS	690	563	127
PS2	179	112	67
PS3	251	218	33
PSP	219	168	51
WII	823	601	222
Total	2590	1992	598

Fuckin' ouch, Batman. Last month I undershot the 360 by 100k, this time I overshot it. And the Wii just killed me. Curse you, Wii.
 
D

donny2112

Member
bcn-ron said:
Is there an ETA for official results?
Click to expand...

About now. :)


March 2009 NPD HW Predictions - Unit Results

1. Orin GA - 152,000
2. NemesisPrime - 174,000
3. Vinci - 219,000
4. FateBreaker - 227,000
5. JJConrad - 259,000
6. WaltJay - 260,000
7. rikitikitik - 275,000
8. Duxxy3 - 286,000
9. Leon S. Kennedy - 298,000
10. chandoog - 323,000
11. Gamemaster_ca_2003 - 324,000
12. Jon - 329,000
13. JavyOO7 - 333,000
14. billy.sea - 334,000
15. skedar897 - 358,000
16. Salami Inferno - 359,000
17. Truespeed - 363,000
18. D4Danger - 378,000
19. No_Style - 398,000
20. kmfdmpig - 400,000
21. Kirashi - 408,000
21. Sleeker - 408,000
23. HocusPocus - 418,000
23. Zee_truly evil - 418,000
25. jett - 420,000
26. Marvie_3 - 425,000
27. h3ro - 428,000
27. TwinIonEngines - 428,000
29. Frankfurter - 443,000
29. Stop It - 443,000
31. kiruyama - 447,000
32. boontje - 468,000
32. gkrykewy - 468,000
34. manzo - 470,000
35. Sadist - 485,000
36. JaCy - 488,000
37. jey_16 - 493,000
38. apujanata - 498,000
39. MikeE21286 - 499,000
40. Osuwari - 508,000
41. Koopakiller - 509,000
42. Jokeropia - 513,000
43. On The Edge of Insanity - 523,000
44. comedy bomb - 528,000
45. Scott32020 - 533,000
46. sionyboy - 545,000
47. Chumly - 548,000
47. jvm - 548,000
49. D.Lo - 558,000
49. nextgeneration - 558,000
49. Saiyar - 558,000
52. _Alkaline_ - 563,000
53. jamesinclair - 566,000
54. andy_lhc - 568,000
55. Ydahs - 569,000
56. Brak - 573,000
57. perfectchaos007 - 577,000
58. FromTheFuture - 578,000
58. starship - 578,000
60. kefka2030 - 582,556
61. Pachter - 583,000
62. N.A - 588,000
63. BLaZiN PRopHeT - 598,000
63. GhaleonEB - 598,000
65. Gadfly - 603,000
66. Digital-Hero - 604,000
67. Frillen - 608,000
67. Waqas - 608,000
69. archnemesis - 613,000
70. Culex - 614,000
71. Rekwest - 616,000
72. Slurmer - 619,000
73. llonesmiz - 623,000
74. scottnak - 634,000
75. bcn-ron - 639,000
76. 1cesc - 643,000
77. zsidane - 648,000
78. jibblypop - 657,000
79. doicare - 658,000
80. Psychotext - 661,000
81. JoshuaJSlone - 662,000
82. Gaborn - 672,000
83. Linkup - 673,000
84. gollumsluvslave - 674,000
85. Orgen - 685,000
86. hemtae - 693,000
87. rostocker - 695,000
88. LiquidMetal14 - 704,000
89. w3stfa11 - 708,000
89. Yes Boss! - 708,000
91. John Dunbar - 715,000
92. Atreides - 723,000
93. SuperBanjo - 733,000
94. botticus - 743,000
94. RattleHead_ - 743,000
96. dolemite - 748,000
97. CHRP718 - 754,000
98. duderon - 758,000
99. jakncoke - 762,000
100. choodi - 768,000
100. DayShallCome - 768,000
102. danwarb - 778,000
103. Brakara - 793,000
104. AdventureRacing - 808,000
104. LOCK - 808,000
104. mrklaw - 808,000
104. The M.O.B - 808,000
108. Bananakin - 818,000
109. Strike - 868,000
110. Flakster99 - 878,000
111. Hammer24 - 898,000
112. RBH - 903,000
113. BishopLamont - 908,000
114. donny2112 - 928,000
115. timetokill - 943,000
116. Opiate - 953,000
117. Jonsoncao - 958,000
118. bakemono - 997,000
119. shykyoichi - 1,043,000
120. Thunder Monkey - 1,093,000

March 2009 NPD HW Predictions - Point Results

Code: 
     March 2009                  Overall 2009
1.   Orin GA            136.35   1cesc               342.25
2.   Vinci              125.17   Scott32020          334.62
3.   FateBreaker        120.24   Jokeropia           333.38
4.   JJConrad           119.84   JJConrad            332.27
5.   NemesisPrime       119.13   boontje             325.12
6.   Leon S. Kennedy    109.84   TwinIonEngines      319.54
7.   Jon                107.98   Gamemaster_ca_2003  318.48
8.   D4Danger           107.24   John Dunbar         316.9
9.   TwinIonEngines     107.03   JoshuaJSlone        314.67
10.  billy.sea          106.4    LOCK                314.22
11.  Salami Inferno     105.17   GhaleonEB           311.85
12.  WaltJay            105.02   Bananakin           311.8
13.  kiruyama           104.28   skedar897           311.61
14.  chandoog           104.23   DayShallCome        309.43
15.  rikitikitik        103.71   danwarb             308.65
16.  Gamemaster_ca_2003 103.59   Brak                307.29
17.  Zee_truly evil     103.33   bcn-ron             306.74
18.  Kirashi            102.73   BLaZiN PRopHeT      304.71
19.  gkrykewy           102.55   Atreides            304.35
20.  skedar897          101.4    N.A                 303.65
21.  h3ro                99.99   doicare             302.48
22.  Frankfurter         99.77   D.Lo                301.98
23.  boontje             99.46   Frillen             301.89
24.  Jokeropia           99.17   kefka2030           301.12
25.  Sadist              97.99   rikitikitik         300.81
26.  No_Style            96.75   jamesinclair        300.52
27.  D.Lo                96.71   apujanata           300.38
28.  jey_16              96.69   andy_lhc            300.12
29.  Duxxy3              96.04   duderon             299.2
30.  perfectchaos007     96.02   llonesmiz           299.06
31.  jvm                 95.11   Pachter             298.31
32.  MikeE21286          94.67   starship            298.21
33.  Saiyar              94.31   choodi              297.89
34.  Truespeed           94.09   Ydahs               297.28
35.  JavyOO7             93.89   Slurmer             296.8
36.  kefka2030           93.8    The M.O.B           296.51
37.  nextgeneration      93.73   gollumsluvslave     293.52
38.  _Alkaline_          93.61   RattleHead_         293.5
39.  Brak                93.48   Psychotext          292.13
40.  jamesinclair        93.17   Frankfurter         291.93
41.  sionyboy            92.7    jey_16              291.6
42.  kmfdmpig            92.51   rostocker           291.42
43.  BLaZiN PropHeT      92      Yes Boss!           290.26
44.  apujanata           91.49   jvm                 290.2
45.  jett                91.44   timetokill          288.45
46.  Osuwari             91.39   Orgen               287.66
47.  Scott32020          91.31   Saiyar              287.48
48.  GhaleonEB           91.1    botticus            286.98
49.  Koopakiller         90.73   Strike              286.49
50.  Ydahs               90.62   SuperBanjo          284.99

Congratulations, Orin GA! :D
 
T

test_account

XP-39C²
Halvie said:
Would be a really nice surprise, but I doubt it.
Click to expand...
Ye, that is true, i guess there wasnt a too big of a chance that Street Fighter 4 would still be in the Top 10 in the 2nd month after the release of Street Fighter 4. But i also think that it would have been a nice surprise indeed as you said :)

I am sorry for the late reply here by the way :\

EDIT: I added some text.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Orin GA said:
[360] 362k
[NDS] 535k
[PS2] 105k
[PS3] 245k
[PSP] 144k
[WII] 635m
Click to expand...


Ummmm... just out of curiosity, how did the parser handle Orin's... ummmm... mistake there?

Edit: Damn, I didn't want this to be the top post of a new page. I congratulate Orin, I'm just curious about the parser's interpretation.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

NPD: April video game disc sales up 8%. All 3 systems break April hardware sales records
Sales-Age 2
70
6K
vaibhavpisal replied
March 2020 NPD: Animal Crossing powers March to blockbuster game sales
Business Analysis Sales-Age
6
2K
drganon replied
Capcom sales update: Dragon’s Dogma: Dark Arisen remaster at one million, Devil May Cry 5 at 3.5 million, Street Fighter V at 4.5 million, more
32
3K
D.Final replied
March 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 11th
Sales-Age 6 7 8 9 10
456
85K
Trust me. I'm a PhD replied
April 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 9th
Sales-Age 5 6 7 8 9
445
98K
Yjynx replied
Top Bottom