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[AdventureRacing]

Great opening for the switch. By most reports it is still selling out quickly in NA and with Mario kart coming soon you'd have to think April will be another strong month. With limited SW over the next few months I think the switch is likely to stall a little saleswise but the question is how much. I think it will bounce back and have a big holiday season and sales will then remain strong.

There are a lot of people still obsessed with the "race" and not realizing that a platform can be healthy and profitable without being the industry leader.

The Xbox division is doing fine. The One isn't a home run like the 360 was but it's a healthy platform by industry standards

Depeding how well the Scorpio is received the xbone may end up barely selling half of the 360. They may not be losing money but losing that much market share is never a good thing.

I agree with what you're saying, just because you're not in first doesn't mean the platform isn't healthy.

 

[Zedark]

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is included in the next NPD, right? Four weeks from April 2th means it should be. That likely means next NPD will have a large boost in hardware due to MK8D, so April could be big as well.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Strange comment.

Not really

Xbox doesn't need help, they are happy with the numbers and engagement, with or without Scorpio.

Literally every single action they have done since 2013 suggests otherwise, ESPECIALLY the Scorpio, which is suppose to rectify the power gap that MS (wrongly) assumes cost them the US/UK lead.

It's not like Xbox losing any big western big publishers support. Games sell well on the platform, publishers will continue make games for it, it doesn't need help.

They haven't lost big AAA publishers but they have lost virtually every exclusive DLC and marketing deal out there, especially for the 800lbs gorillas that are CoD and BF, and now Destiny. Alone they mean little, combined the lack of exclusives outside of HaloForzaGears its a blow cause they need any advantage over Sony (and now Nintendo's Switch) they could get.

This new narrative being parroted by Xbox fans that MS is "happy" with the XB1's sales is ten different levels of hilarious. If you honestly think a company is A-OK with their product on track to sell less than half of their predecessor, especially when said predecessor dominated their strongest market and is now firmly in second place no matter what they do, then I hope to God you're never in charge of a company.

Not even Nintendo fans have the gall to say Nintendo was happy with Wii U's sales.

 

[PinkyMonkey]

Are we not getting NPD charts anymore?

 

[test_account]

think it's safe to say zelda debuted higher than horizon

Wasnt that sort of a given to begin with?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Are we not getting NPD charts anymore?

You mean the top 10 game rankings? That comes out next Thursday.

 

[Obliterator]

Not really

Literally every single action they have done since 2013 suggests otherwise, ESPECIALLY the Scorpio, which is suppose to rectify the power gap that MS (wrongly) assumes cost them the US/UK lead.

They haven't lost big AAA publishers but they have lost virtually every exclusive DLC and marketing deal out there, especially for the 800lbs gorillas that are CoD and BF, and now Destiny. Alone they mean little, combined the lack of exclusives outside of HaloForzaGears its a blow cause they need any advantage over Sony (and now Nintendo's Switch) they could get.

This new narrative being parroted by Xbox fans that MS is "happy" with the XB1's sales is ten different levels of hilarious. If you honestly think a company is A-OK with their product on track to sell less than half of their predecessor, especially when said predecessor dominated their strongest market and is now firmly in second place no matter what they do, then I hope to God you're never in charge of a company.

Not even Nintendo fans have the gall to say Nintendo was happy with Wii U's sales.

Who said MS is happy with Xbox One sales? People are saying it's a healthy platform which is 100% accurate.

And comparing Xbox Ones performance to Wii U / Nintendo is crazy. The One is driving substantially more revenue than Wii U ever got close to

 

[Principate]

Wasnt that sort of a given to begin with?

Far from it. Compare the install base of PS4 and the Wii u and switch in America. Horizon is a major tentapole exclusive also. The vast majority of games would not be able to achieve this.

 

[PinkyMonkey]

You mean the top 10 game rankings? That comes out next Thursday.

Ah ok, thanks.

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

Wasnt that sort of a given to begin with?

if you ignored the critical reception of zelda as well as how well it was anticipated (even farther back then its e3 playable demos), and somehow equated a larger install base correlates better with larger debuts than a co-simultaneous launch with highly anticipated hardware (along with a second sku), no it wasn't a given

i thought it was a given though, despite apparently most people thinking not

---
a larger userbase isn't a guarantee of anything like larger debuts for exclusives, just a good factor for it

look at shooting games on xbox one despite having a smaller userbase than ps4
microsoft has a more active userbase that buys into that kind of software than sony does
like last month when for honor debuted better on xbox one than ps4
the xbox userbase skews towards multiplayer focused games better than the ps4 does (at least in this instance)
the point is active userbase is totally a good thing, despite most people brushing off maus merely as a oh, they musta sold bad!!!, desperate pr!

the switch was obviously going to be more active since its a new release, the software, zelda aligns better with the audience nintendo already has anyway, the critical reception helped with the strays that would've bought the system

that jumble messed of thoughts is just me saying its more than just a bigger userbase at play

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Far from it. Compare the install base of PS4 and the Wii u and switch in America. Horizon is a major tentapole exclusive also. The vast majority of games would not be able to achieve this.

Come again?

Something like UC4 is a tentpole exclusive. Horizon is a new IP trying to establish itself.

 

[test_account]

Far from it. Compare the install base of PS4 and the Wii u and switch in America. Horizon is a major tentapole exclusive also. The vast majority of games would not be able to achieve this.

Zelda is also a major tentpole exclusive. Nintendo dedicated a whole E3 primarily to that game. Its also the game for the Switch so far. I dont think that the size of the userbase means that much. In theory, bigger means more potential consumers, but in practice this isnt always the case.

I dont know, both games are strong things going for them, but one being a new IP and one being a very popular serie, and being the must-have launch title for the Switch and also being on WiiU, i feel that its no surprise at all that Zelda would sell more. Maybe not a 100% given, but no surprise, at least to me. Cant see why it would be "far from it" if you mean that Horizon had more things going for it?

if you ignored the critical reception of zelda as well as how well it was anticipated (even farther back then its e3 playable demos), and somehow equated a larger install base correlates better with larger debuts than a co-simultaneous launch with highly anticipated hardware (along with a second sku), no it wasn't a given

i thought it was a given though, despite apparently most people thinking not

I mean regarding Zelda selling more than Horizon The things that you mention there is things why i think it wouldnt be a surprise why Zelda would sell more.

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

I mean regarding Zelda selling more than Horizon The things that you mention there is things why i think it wouldnt be a surprise why Zelda would sell more.

yeah, it was a given

except userbase is a bigger end of them all factor apparently /s

 

[Piggus]

Measuring LTD at end of February, Microsoft have 41.2% more consoles sold in 2017 versus in 2016. So a naive calculation would be that each owner is spending about 20% less time playing on Xbox One this year than last.

Of course, the real picture is more complicated. Since last year Microsoft launched Xbox One S, so some percentage of the "installed base increase" was actually folks just replacing their original Xbox One. In addition, over time the new customers attracted by a platform are, on average, less enthusiasts and more casual. So to some extent the lower engagement numbers don't indicate old customers playing 20% less. Instead they may be just as dedicated as ever (or more), but some newer, less committed customers are playing, say, 40% less.

In addition, the fact that they said they were up over the whole first quarter may indirectly indicate they were actually down YoY for March alone. If so, then the prior two months would've been up YoY by more. This would have no effect on the overall numbers, but might paint a better narrative. It's not as concerning if "the rise in engagement more nearly matched the rise in hardware, except in March"...as opposed to "the rise in engagement lagged behind the rise in hardware all quarter long."


Yeah, really great, especially for a non-holiday launch. The only one of those that's close was Gameboy Advance at 881k in June 2001. The only consoles of any kind to be higher than Switch are Xbox One and PS4 from November 2013. (Unless there's some weird surprise hiding in previous generations; my data doesn't go back into the 90s or earlier, but I'd be shocked if there'd ever been a million-unit launch that long ago.)

Thanks for the explanation!

 

[test_account]

yeah, it was a given

except userbase is a bigger end of them all factor apparently /s

Horizon had a few extra days of tracking and bigger userbase going for it (while the latter doesnt necessarily means a lot higher sales, i agree). Otherwise i think Zelda had the upper hand.

 

[Rymuth]

Who said MS is happy with Xbox One sales?

The...guy he was quoting?

they are happy with the numbers

on an unrelated note, I feel like I'm the only one who's aware of Wapplew's schtick (aside from the mods) and it makes me feel alone.

So...very, very alone. ._.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

on an unrelated note, I feel like I'm the only one who's aware of Wapplew's schtick (aside from the mods) and it makes me feel alone.

So...very, very alone. ._.

Nah, I'm there with you. I keep wondering why people fall for it lol.

 

[Unknown?]

Come again?

Something like UC4 is a tentpole exclusive. Horizon is a new IP trying to establish itself.

So Halo at Xbox's launch wasn't a tent pole exclusive? Not everything has to be established for it to be a major exclusive. Horizon has already sold a lot and continues to sell. It's PS4's biggest game this year too.

 

[Principate]

Come again?

Something like UC4 is a tentpole exclusive. Horizon is a new IP trying to establish itself.

Horizon has been shown off at multiple E3 and Playstation experiences. Sony physically could not have marketed the game more or kept it in the public consciousness.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

So Halo at Xbox's launch wasn't a tent pole exclusive? Not everything has to be established for it to be a major exclusive. Horizon has already sold a lot and continues to sell. It's PS4's biggest game this year too.

Yeah, Halo would be because it has a long history of being the strongest IP on Xbox.

Horizon will develop into a tentpole franchise but it wasn't at launch. New IPs don't carry that weight even if they do perform well at launch.

Edit - Oh, I misunderstood. You were talking about when Halo first came on the scene. No, I wouldn't consider it a tentpole exclusive when it first came out.

Horizon has been shown off at multiple E3 and Playstation experiences. Sony physically could not have marketed the game more or kept it in the public consciousness.

If that is the criteria, there are quite a few tentpole exclusives.

When you say tentpole, I think of Halo, Zelda, Uncharted, Gran Turismo, etc...

 

[Principate]

Zelda is also a major tentpole exclusive. Nintendo dedicated a whole E3 primarily to that game. Its also the game for the Switch so far. I dont think that the size of the userbase means that much. In theory, bigger means more potential consumers, but in practice this isnt always the case.

I dont know, both games are strong things going for them, but one being a new IP and one being a very popular serie, and being the must-have launch title for the Switch and also being on WiiU, i feel that its no surprise at all that Zelda would sell more. Maybe not a 100% given, but no surprise, at least to me. Cant see why it would be "far from it" if you mean that Horizon had more things going for it?



I mean regarding Zelda selling more than Horizon The things that you mention there is things why i think it wouldnt be a surprise why Zelda would sell more.

I'm sorry but no that's not a safe assumption because tell me how many games have achieved over 100% attach ratio's? There was nothing expected about Zelda sales. I'm fairly certain even if I asked you a week ago you wouldn't predict over a 100% attach ratio for Zelda. Keep in mind major new IP's like Titanfall have sold over a million in the first month and this was early in the XB1 lifespan That sort of range most certainly would not be unheard of for horizon. if Horizon resonated more it could have very easily outsold Zelda.

Saying it's expected is a massive case of revisionist hindsight. Horizon outsold Zelda in the UK.

Yeah, Halo would be because it has a long history of being the strongest IP on Xbox.

Horizon will develop into a tentpole franchise but it wasn't at launch. New IPs don't carry that weight even if they do perform well at launch.

If that is the criteria, there are quite a few tentpole exclusives.

When you say tentpole, I think of Halo, Zelda, Uncharted, Gran Turismo, etc...

Yes there are. How many games reserves multiple prolonged gameplay showcase on E3 stage shows? It's downright unheard of outside of the biggest games.

 

[Elandyll]

Horizon has been shown off at multiple E3 and Playstation experiences. Sony physically could not have marketed the game more or kept it in the public consciousness.

What Spirit is saying is that normally a "tentpole" is an existing Franchise with a very well known IP.
Horizon is a brand new (successful) IP that benefitted from a lot of exposure.

As for the BOTW comparison, install base is certainly important, but so is competition on your own platform (and it doesn't take away anything from how well BOTW did), and HZD came out in one of the most jam packed Q1 ever in high quality games.

 

[Primethius]

Strange comment.
Xbox doesn't need help, they are happy with the numbers and engagement, with or without Scorpio.
It's not like Xbox losing any big western big publishers support. Games sell well on the platform, publishers will continue make games for it, it doesn't need help.

Sure it needs help. The XB1 being healthy in a profit sense doesn't make it that the brand and system don't need help, especially moving forward.

It's not as if MS is only going to aim for Xbox core fans with the next console and not try to expand their reach at all. That would be incredibly short sighted and stupid (and basically would mirror some of Nintendo's problems before they tried to be innovative and crazy with stuff like the Wii and DS).

A shrinking base of potential customers that you're trying to retain. MS certainly doesn't want to be in those shoes.

 

[allan-bh]

Never thought that Switch would reach Xbox One's level of launch, really impressive.

Nintendo has Q2 on lock, Switch will win april, may and june.

 

[test_account]

I'm sorry but no that's not a safe assumption because tell me how many games have achieved over 100% attach ratio's? There was nothing expected about Zelda sales. I'm fairly certain even if I asked you a week ago you wouldn't predict over a 100% attach ratio for Zelda. Keep in mind major new IP's like Titanfall have sold over a million in the first month and this was early in the XB1 lifespan That sort of range most certainly would not be unheard of for horizon. if Horizon resonated more it could have very easily outsold Zelda.

Probably no one, but 100% attach ratio doesnt really mean much in this case though. We're talking about hard numbers since we already know those for Zelda. If the Switch had only sold 250k in its first month due to lack of interest or severe supply problems, a 100% attach ratio would be 250k copies. I'm also pretty sure that the WiiU version would have sold more if people didnt have a chance to get the Switch version. How things would have balanced out in that senario is however impossible to say.

No need to be sorry by the way, hehe Its a matter of opinion.

Saying it's expected is a massive case of revisionist hindsight. Horizon outsold Zelda in the UK.

None of the factors i mentioned have to be seen with hindsight. Very popular IP, big hype behind the game, amazing review scores, being on two platforms. Zelda had a lot of things going for it. That doesnt mean that Horizon didnt have things going for it either. Like you mentioned, new IPs can also have strong openings. I also didnt say that it was a 100% given, but its not surprise seeing Zelda selling this well, in my opinion. That doesnt take anything away from its success.

 

[watdaeff4]

Who said MS is happy with Xbox One sales? People are saying it's a healthy platform which is 100% accurate.

And comparing Xbox Ones performance to Wii U / Nintendo is crazy. The One is driving substantially more revenue than Wii U ever got close to

Cmon now read his posts. He has an axe to grind; war to fight, no point in trying to be rationale with him

 

[Principate]

Probably no one, but 100% attach ratio doesnt really mean much in this case though. We're talking about hard numbers since we already know those for Zelda. If the Switch had only sold 250k in its first month due to lack of interest or severe supply problems, a 100% attach ratio would be 250k copies. I'm also pretty sure that the WiiU version would have sold more if people didnt have a chance to get the Switch version. How things would have balanced out in that senario is however impossible to say.

No need to be sorry by the way, hehe Its a matter of opinion.



None of the factors i mentioned have to be seen with hindsight. Zelda had a lot of things going for it over Horizon. That doesnt mean that Horizon didnt have things going for it either. Like you mentioned, new IPs can also have strong openings. I also didnt say that it was a 100% given, but its not surprise seeing Zelda selling this well, in my opinion. That doesnt take anything away from its success.

You said it was to be expected but you haven't explained how it was to be expected. Your argument comes down to it could have happened not how it was expected. The mere fact you couldn't predicted it's attach ratio which proved instrumental to this even happening makes the argument extremely poor. Zelda selling 700k is equally expected and more likely given your criteria. It also probably would have lost. Your entire argument hinges on the "expectation" that it'd outperform your own expectations of attach ratios and likely sales of the system. Previous Nintendo consoles sold 400k, attach ratios like this haven't been seen in decades. That is pure revisionist hindsight. There's no basis to it even within your own internal logic.

 

[Curufinwe]

Strange comment.
Xbox doesn't need help, they are happy with the numbers

So happy with the sales numbers they stopped talking about them a long time ago.

 

[test_account]

You said it was to be expected but you haven't explained how it was to be expected. Your argument comes down to it could have happened not how it was expected. The mere fact you couldn't predicted it's attach ratio which proved instrumental to this even happening makes the argument extremely poor. Zelda selling 700k is equally expected and more likely given your criteria. It also probably would have lost. Your entire argument hinges on the "expectation" that it'd outperform your own expectations of attach ratios and likely sales of the system. That is pure revisionist hindsight.

Is it just me, or is your tone a bit hostile because you disagree with me? I'm referring to comments like "mere fact that you couldn't predict", "extremely poor arguement" and "revision hindsight". Feels quite unecessary and just sours the discussion, in my opinion. But maybe it comes of stronger due to being in written form. EDIT: And now with "your internal logic" that you edited in. Why this tone? Seriously.

Anyway, my arguement is that Zelda had strong things going for it. Strong and popular IP, big hype, amazing review scores and being on two platforms for example. I first asked if it was a given, then later said that its not a surprise to me that if it happends (which it most likely will).

Prediction attach ratio doesnt mean much on its on. If i had predicted, lets say a 70% attach ratio, the actual sales could be in a big range. Completely depends on how much the Switch would end up selling. Then i would have to predict how much the Switch would end up selling as well, which both would be a big guessing game. EDIT: Looking at previous 400k numbers, like i mentioned, i'm pretty sure that the WiiU version would have sold more if people couldnt get their hands on the Switch version. Feel free to disagree with that.

And again, not trying to take anything away from Zelda's success. The numbers speak for themself. They're great. So i dont see any need for the tone you're having in this discussion.

 

[Ascenion]

Yes there are. How many games reserves multiple prolonged gameplay showcase on E3 stage shows? It's downright unheard of outside of the biggest games.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say you don't really understand what tentpole means. Since it's borrowed from film tentpole means a movie that supports the financials of a movie/production studio through the film itself and various other merchandising opportunities. So much so it can occasionally mitigate losses on other things. So Disney for example can make films that bomb because Star Wars/Marvel will make a billion guaranteed off the film alone not counting the merchandise. So in this case Sony can make Horizon because Uncharted 4 is a guaranteed hit basically. A new IP doesn't have this ability because it is an unproven new IP. People hype things that fail all the time. Horizon is not a tentpole franchise. It probably will be but at the moment it isn't and it definitely wasn't before launch.

 

[Principate]

Is it just me, or is your tone a bit hostile because you disagree with me? I'm referring to comments like "mere fact that you couldn't predict", "extremely poor arguement" and "revision hindsight". Feels quite unecessary and just sours the discussion, in my opinion. But maybe it comes of stronger due to being in written form. EDIT: And now with "your internal logic" that you edited in. Why this tone? Seriously.

Anyway, my arguement is that Zelda had strong things going for it. Strong and popular IP, big hype, amazing review scores and being on two platforms for example. I first asked if it was a given, then later said that its not a surprise to me that if it happends (which it most likely will).

Prediction attach ratio doesnt mean much on its on. If i had predicted, lets say a 70% attach ratio, the actual sales could be in a big range. Completely depends on how much the Switch would end up selling. Then i would have to predict how much the Switch would end up selling as well, which both would be a big guessing game. EDIT: Looking at previous 400k numbers, like i mentioned, i'm pretty sure that the WiiU version would have sold more if people couldnt get their hands on the Switch vesion. Feel free to disagree with that.

My argument is that with a 70% attach ratio you combine that with a whatever your sales of the switch is (keeping in mind the highest launch of a Nintendo console is around 450k) and then do the maths. It doesn't make any logical sense for it to be expected. Which is why I look at anyone who says as such with extreme side eye. I just smell bullshit from the logic in that statement and I have no issue arguing such.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say you don't really understand what tentpole means. Since it's borrowed from film tentpole means a movie that supports the financials of a movie/production studio through the film itself and various other merchandising opportunities. So much so it can occasionally mitigate losses on other things. So Disney for example can make films that bomb because Star Wars/Marvel will make a billion guaranteed off the film alone not counting the merchandise. So in this case Sony can make Horizon because Uncharted 4 is a guaranteed hit basically. A new IP doesn't have this ability because it is an unproven new IP. People hype things that fail all the time. Horizon is not a tentpole franchise. It probably will be but at the moment it isn't and it definitely wasn't before launch.

There's plenty of new IP tentapoles in films and yes I know exactly what it means. Since when you under the impression their weren't? Marvel movie and cinematic universes are a recent thing a lot of the time major block busters weren't backed by the brand behind them. That's why the reliance on Star Power and other such indicators were used in green lighting films with substantial investments with the am of becoming franchises.

 

[test_account]

My argument is that with a 70% attach ratio you combine that with a whatever your sales of the switch is (keeping in mind the highest launch of a Nintendo console is around 450k) and then do the maths. It doesn't make any logical sense for it to be expected. Which is why I look at anyone who says as such with extreme side eye. I just smell bullshit from the logic in that statement and I have no issue arguing such.

If you ignore the WiiU version, then i would agree. Going by a 450k number and 70% attach rate, if this was the only factor for Zelda sales, then yeah, i would be really surprised of Zelda outsold Horizon. That would mean an opening of 315k for Zelda, and i think that would be too low considering that it launched early March.

 

[Principate]

If you ignore the WiiU version, then i would agree. Going by a 450k number and 70% attach rate, if this was the only factor for Zelda sales, then yeah, i would be really surprised of Zelda outsold Horizon. That would mean an opening of 315k for Zelda, and i think that would be too low.

That highest sales for a wii u title in Christmas was 700k. Every other launch hasn't come close. Even assuming those highly favourable and unlikely conditions Zelda would more likely than not been outsold based on previous data estimations.

 

[test_account]

That highest sales for a wii u title in Christmas was 700k. Every other launch hasn't come close. Even assuming those highly favourable and unlikely conditions Zelda would more likely than not been outsold based on previous data estimations.

Zelda was/is also probably one fo the biggest, if not the biggest, and most anticipated WiiU title of them all. Lets say 500k for WiiU and 315k (70% attach ratio) for Switch, thats about 800k. Do you think that would be an unrealistic prediction? But the arguement isnt that much about how many copies Zelda would end up selling though. Its about in relation to what Horizon will sell, and we also havnt really touched much on that point. What are your expectation for Horizon's first month? Have the changed since yesterday seeing the Zelda numbers or have they been the same for a while? Personally i dont know what i would expect. I guess maybe somewhere around 500k-800k.

 

[Ascenion]

There's plenty of new IP tentapoles in films and yes I know exactly what it means. Since when you under the impression their weren't? Marvel movie and cinematic universes are a recent thing a lot of the time major block busters weren't backed by the brand behind them. That's why the reliance on Star Power and other such indicators were used in green lighting films with substantial investments with the am of becoming franchises.

I would call those potential tentpole films. They can still fail. Bad example but look at Prince of Persia. Jerry Bruckhiemer, Jake Gyllenhal, 200 Million budget, gonna be the next Pirates franchise....total bust. It isn't a tentpole until it's bankable, it implies this is what I'm here to see this is what I know them for. A Marvel
Movie is guaranteed at least 500 million box office now. Before phase 1 and the Avengers each film was a risk. And could've destroyed it all with a massive failure, especially if the avengers bombed.

 

[Principate]

Zelda was/is also probably one fo the biggest, if not the biggest, and most anticipated WiiU title of them all. But the arguement isnt that much about how many copies Zelda would end up selling though. Its about in relation to what Horizon will sell, and we also havnt really touched much on that point. What are your expectation for Horizon's first month? Have the changed since yesterday seeing the Zelda numbers or have they been the same for a while? Personally i dont know what i would expect. I guess maybe somewhere around 500k-800k.

Zelda has been on a downscales decline for decades. Even in this scenario it only sold 300k on the Wii u with a chunk moving over to the switch. If the switch did not sell at XB1 launch month levels with a black Friday and a over 100% attach ratio it wouldn't have reached these numbers that are still extremely beatable by horizon. it's a freak of nature and it was still this close.

The average Gaf prediction for the switch which is still a massive overperformance for an Nintendo hardware. best ever is 750k. Add in a amazing 70% attach ratio and you get 525k add in the wii u sales and your in the 800k+ mark great results. Highly, highly beatable by horizon.

I would call those potential tentpole films. They can still fail. Bad example but look at Prince of Persia. Jerry Bruckhiemer, Jake Gyllenhal, 200 Million budget, gonna be the next Pirates franchise....total bust. It isn't a tentpole until it's bankable, it implies this is what I'm here to see this is what I know them for. A Marvel
Movie is guaranteed at least 500 million box office now. Before phase 1 and the Avengers each film was a risk. And could've destroyed it all with a massive failure, especially if the avengers bombed.

My point is tentapole as term has existed for decades before marvel. Brands of that nature is an extremely recent thing, the term itself in the has referred to far more movies that weren't "cinematic franchise" films than were.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

Who said MS is happy with Xbox One sales? People are saying it's a healthy platform which is 100% accurate.

And comparing Xbox Ones performance to Wii U / Nintendo is crazy. The One is driving substantially more revenue than Wii U ever got close to

The person he was replying to said MS is happy with the sales.

 

[test_account]

Zelda has been on a downscales decline for decades. Even in this scenario it only sold 300k on the Wii u with a chunk moving over to the switch. If the switch did not sell at Xb1 launch month levels with a black Friday and a over 100% attach ratio it wouldn't have reached these numbers that are still extremely beatable by horizon. it's a freak of nature and it was still this close.

The average Gaf prediction for the switch which is still a massive over performance for an Nintendo hardware best ever is 750k. Add in a amazing 70% attach ratio and you get 525 add in the wii saes and your in the 800k mark great results. highly, highly beatable by horizon.

Zelda: BotW also took a new turn for the serie with the open world. The review score was also some of the best in gaming history (going by Metacritics). I would find it surprising if this would continue the decline. Yeah, an 800k prediction would have seemed fair to me (i actually edited my post with this just before you replied).

What are your expectations for Horizon? And have it changed after seeing the Zelda numbers?

 

[Principate]

Zelda: BotW also took a new turn for the serie with the open world. The review score was also some of the best in gaming history (going by Metacritics). I would find it surprising if this would continue the decline. Yeah, an 800k prediction would have seemed fair to me (i actually edited my post with this just before you replied).

What are your expectations for Horizon? And have it changed after seeing the Zelda numbers?

700k to a 1 million range. It's Sony's most marketed exclusive bar Uncharted.

 

[test_account]

700k to a 1 million range. It's Sony's most marketed exclusive bar Uncharted.

Fair enough. Going by those numbers, i agree that it wasnt a given, especially if the expection was a million. But i still think it wouldnt be a big surprise either since new IPs can go both ways despite being marketed a lot, and based on the popularity of Zelda and how BotW was recieved critically.

I forgot to comment regarding the GAF average prediction of about 750k. It shows that many were expected it do a lot better than 450k, so going by this, the Zelda sales numbers (maybe around 800k or so as i mentioned) didnt seem too far fetched to me Those predictions are probably based on the 2 million first month shipment number.

 

[Principate]

Fair enough. Going by those numbers, i agree that it wasnt a given, but i still think it wouldnt be a big surprise either since new IPs can go both ways despite being marketed a lot, and based on the popularity of Zelda and how BotW was recieved critically.

I forgot to comment regarding the GAF average prediction of about 750k. It shows that many were expected it do a lot better than 450k, so going by this, the Zelda sales numbers it didnt seem too far fetched to me Those predictions are probably based on the 2 million first month shipment number.

True wasn't really sure what the ballpark would be for it since it was so heavily constrained and Nintendo doesn't tend to ship that much to US launch. Most of my disbelief of this whole thing really is that it's a 5 week month, and Horizon had a week more sales so even with my 700k estimation I didn't figure I would be that far off in those conditions.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Never thought that Switch would reach Xbox One's level of launch, really impressive.

Nintendo has Q2 on lock, Switch will win april, may and june.

shouldn't it strive to win every month this year outside of Scorpio month? Esp if Smash and Pokemon are real.

I figured it'd be slightly disappointing if it didn't

 

[Unknown?]

Never thought that Switch would reach Xbox One's level of launch, really impressive.

Nintendo has Q2 on lock, Switch will win april, may and june.

Hmmm I don't know about that. Why are they on lock?

 

[test_account]

True wasn't really sure what the ballpark would be for it since it was so heavily constrained and Nintendo doesn't tend to ship that much to US launch. Most of my disbelief of this whole thing really is that it's a 5 week month, and Horizon had a week more sales so even with my 700k estimation I didn't figure I would be that far off in those conditions.

Yeah, it wasnt easy to know regarding how much that would be shipped where. And i agree that Horizon did/does have much potential, so when talking about an expectation about maybe around a 800k - 1000k, it wasnt a given.

Thanks for the discussion.

 

[slavesnyder]

You know what? I wonder why MS just doesn't stay silent? This PR really doesn't do anything to instill confidence.

Sony has been winning most months and they still remain quiet about it. Maybe because they are just focused on getting revenue.

But I would think it would be helpful to get the gaming public to not focus on NPD if they didn't mention anything about it.

PR is most needed when good news do not write itselves. It's completely understandable that MS is doing PR especially when they had a bad month. The quality of the statements is debatable, but there are people in the PR department getting paychecks, so they should do their job. Exaggeration, distraction twists and blatant optimism is part of it. May it be bullets fired, MAU or hours played - it's part of the game. Also celebrating a console that is half a year away in comment for the last month. So laugh about it as you like, but please don't ask them to stop.

Honestly, I am more disappointed about sony. Their PR statements were life-and loveless for a long time and now it's just silence. Mat and the gang are pulling their legs out to get the data together (and keep them away from nosey people) and in the end there's no open feedback as if sony doesn't care.
that's antisocial behaviour.

What's really interesting is Microsoft is placing emphasis on its plan for Holiday 2017 where it will debut several high profile exclusives, some of which will be announced at E3 this June, alongside a mid-generation hardware refresh: Project Scorpio.
I am very interested how this plays out. I am optimistic that we will have the best Xbox holiday lineup in history.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

I am optimistic that we will have the best Xbox holiday lineup in history.

Now where have I heard that before..?

 

[jroc74]

Welp, looks like the Switch took the 3DS place for killing me in the predictions.

Amazing numbers.

 

[Unknown?]

PR is most needed when good news do not write itselves. It's completely understandable that MS is doing PR especially when they had a bad month. The quality of the statements is debatable, but there are people in the PR department getting paychecks, so they should do their job. Exaggeration, distraction twists and blatant optimism is part of it. May it be bullets fired, MAU or hours played - it's part of the game. Also celebrating a console that is half a year away in comment for the last month. So laugh about it as you like, but please don't ask them to stop.

Honestly, I am more disappointed about sony. Their PR statements were life-and loveless for a long time and now it's just silence. Mat and the gang are pulling their legs out to get the data together (and keep them away from nosey people) and in the end there's no open feedback as if sony doesn't care.
that's antisocial behaviour.

What's really interesting is Microsoft is placing emphasis on its plan for Holiday 2017 where it will debut several high profile exclusives, some of which will be announced at E3 this June, alongside a mid-generation hardware refresh: Project Scorpio.
I am very interested how this plays out. I am optimistic that we will have the best Xbox holiday lineup in history.

Why shouldn't he ask them to stop embarrassing statements? Sony stopped because claiming no they were #1 every month gets annoying.

Now where have I heard that before..?

Lol

 

[Capella]

What's really interesting is Microsoft is placing emphasis on its plan for Holiday 2017 where it will debut several high profile exclusives, some of which will be announced at E3 this June, alongside a mid-generation hardware refresh: Project Scorpio.
I am very interested how this plays out. I am optimistic that we will have the best Xbox holiday lineup in history.

Just to make sure there's no confusion or anything but that sentence isn't from the MS PR. I don't doubt that we will see big exclusives announced at E3 but I wouldn't read into that statement...

 

[watdaeff4]

I'm really curious how MS counts the hours played tbh.

A friend on my list is always playing FFXIV......and it shows that as what he is doing on my friends list, I'm wondering (assuming) that all of these hours also counts as playtime in the Xbox ecosystem which is really stretching it IMO.