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May 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 7th

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD May 2016 retail period (May 1-28, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, June 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 1-28, 2016 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, June 9th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in April:
GameStop $250 PS4/XB1 trade-in toward PS4 (May 9-29) - 20 days
Uncharted 4 PS4 Bundle (May 10) - 19 days
2DS price drop $80 (May 20) - 9 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

April's Results (used for predictions)
Thanks to a good source

PS4 - 175k
XB1 - 168k
WIU - 32k
3DS was 75k.

April 2015 NPD thread
May 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

Welfare

Member
May is really dependent on hardware deals and big software releases. The weekly average drops from April to May

Code:
2010

Xbox 360 April: 185K / 4 = 46,250
Xbox 360 May: 195K / 4 = 48,750

Weekly average up 5%

PS3 April: 181K / 4 = 45,250
PS3 May: 155K / 4 = 38,750

Weekly average down 14%

Wii April: 277K / 4 = 69,250
Wii May: 335K / 4 = 83,750

Weekly average up 21%

Code:
Notable Releases in May

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Skate 3 [3 weeks] [~140,000]

Lost Planet 2 [3 weeks] [~120,000]

Red Dead Redemption [2 weeks] [945,900]

Alan Wake [2 weeks] [145,000]

UFC Undisputed 2010 [1 week] [221,100]

[u]PS3[/u]
Red Dead Redemption [2 weeks] [567,100]

UFC Undisputed 2010 [1 week] [192,300]

[u]Wii[/u]
Wii Sports Resort + Motionplus bundle $199 [3 weeks]

Super Mario Galaxy 2 [1 week] [563,900]

Code:
2011

Xbox 360 April: 297K / 4 = 74,250
Xbox 360 May: 270K / 4 = 67,500

Weekly average down 9%

PS3 April: 204K / 4 = 51,000
PS3 May: 175K / 4 = 43,750

Weekly average down 14%

Wii April: 172K / 4 = 43,000
Wii May: 236K / 4 = 59,000

Weekly average up 37%

Code:
Notable Releases in May

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
L.A. Noire [2 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
L.A. Noire [2 weeks]

[u]Wii[/u]
Continued sales of the Wii Sports + Wii Sports Resort + Wii Remote Plus Black model bundle $169 from April

Code:
2012

Xbox 360 April: 236K / 4 = 59,000
Xbox 360 May: 160K / 4 = 40,000

Weekly average down 32%

PS3 April: 172K / 4 = 43,000
PS3 May: 125K / 4 = 31,250

Weekly average down 27%

Wii April: 91K / 4 = 22,750
Wii May: 71K / 4 = 17,750

Weekly average down 22%

Code:
Notable Releases in May

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Max Payne 3 [2 weeks]

Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier [1 week]

[u]PS3[/u]
Max Payne 3 [2 weeks]

Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Future Soldier [1 week]

Code:
2013

Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Xbox 360 May: 114K / 4 = 28,500

Weekly average down 12%

PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500
PS3 May: 85K / 4 = 21,250

Weekly average down 17%

Wii April: 44K / 4 = 11,000
Wii May: 36K / 4 = 9,000

Weekly average down 18%

Wii U April: 36K / 4 = 9,000
Wii U May: 33K / 4 = 8,250

Weekly average down 8%

Code:
Notable Releases in May

Nothing of note for anyone

Code:
2014

Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750
Xbox 360 May: 57K / 4 = 14,250

Weekly average down 20%

Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750
Xbox One May: 77K / 4 = 19,250

Weekly average down 33%

PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750
PS3 May: 36K / 4 = 9,000

Weekly average up 3%

PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750
PS4 May: 197K / 4 = 49,250

Weekly average down 1%

Wii April: 18K / 4 = 4,500
Wii May: 11K / 4 = 2,750

Weekly average down 39%

Wii U April: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Wii U May: 61K / 4 = 15,250

Weekly average up 27%

Code:
Notable Releases in May

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Watch Dogs [1 week] [172,000]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Kinect-less SKU for $399 announced [3 weeks]

Watch Dogs [1 week] [363,000]

[u]PS3[/u]
Minecraft [3 weeks] [89,000]

Watch Dogs [1 week] [138,000]

[u]PS4[/u]
Watch Dogs [1 week] [583,000]

[u]Wii U[/u]
Mario Kart 8 [1 week] [352,000]

Mario Kart 8 bundle $329 [1 week] [~25,000]

Code:
2015

Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and no numbers were leaked for most of 2015) 

Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750
Xbox One May: 139K / 4 = 34,750

Weekly average down 26%

PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS4 May: 152K / 4 = 38,000

Weekly average down 13%

Wii U April: 43K / 4 = 10,750
Wii U May: 42K / 4 = 10,500

Weekly average down 1%

Code:
Notable Releases in May

[u]Xbox One[/u]
End of month long trade in deals from April

Witcher 3 [2 weeks] [275,000?]

Halo MCC 500GB White bundle $349 [1 week]

[u]PS4[/u]
Witcher 3 [2 weeks] [420,000]

Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]

[u]Wii U[/u]
Splatoon [1 week] [136k]

Best Buy - Splatoon + Nintendo Land 32GB bundle $299

So yeah. All over the place. Now, this year.

Code:
2016

Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000

PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750

Wii U April: 32K / 4 = 8,075

Code:
Notable Releases in May

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Price raise $50

$50 Giftcards all month long

DOOM [3 weeks]

Overwatch [1 week]

[u]PS4[/u]
Uncharted 4 [3 weeks]

Uncharted 4 500GB limited bundle $399 [3 weeks]

DOOM [3 weeks]

Overwatch [1 week]

[PS4] 186K
[XB1] 124K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 22k

GameStop $250 PS4/XB1 trade-in toward PS4 (May 9-29) - 20 days

Sell your PS4 to get a PS4!
 

Abdiel

Member
Rofl.

Uncharted exploded. Ps4 doing very well for itself. Bundle still hanging around, but it sold better than the tomb raider and division bundles in our stores.

Very positive buzz, though I do wonder about long term legs, since it's not new ip like The last of us. There is a lot of converts from the 360 though. So who knows.

Xb1 doing okay.
 

Rymuth

Member
[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 130K
[3DS] 70K
[WIU] 35K


**PREDICTIONS**


  • Uncharted takes the no. 1 spot
  • Ratchet, MLB and Uncharted will be the in top 10, marking 3 Sony first party titles in the top 10 SW for the first time this gen.
  • Uncharted beats Halo 5 Guardian opening sales, hits 1M
  • Doom's PS4/X1 splits are 55/45

**will update later
 

Welfare

Member
Rofl.

Uncharted exploded. Ps4 doing very well for itself. Bundle still hanging around, but it sold better than the tomb raider and division bundles in our stores.

Very positive buzz, though I do wonder about long term legs, since it's not new ip like The last of us. There is a lot of converts from the 360 though. So who knows.

Xb1 doing okay.

How did DOOM do?
 
My May NPD Predictions:

  • Some members of NeoGAF will continue to not react well to ongoing changes in the industry
  • Sales of Overwatch will prove particularly entertaining, troubling, sad and, hopefully, enlightening
  • Correlation will be directly tied to Causation by Krazy Glue, although correlation and causation should not be assumed
  • Uncharted will be hyper analyzed until we all want to puke
 
Subsidiary question for Abdiel if I may. How do you feel about No Man' Sky preorders these days ? Back then you said you were pleasantly surprised about it. With the June 21th approaching (since the delay is not official yet at least) it looks like the game is back on the top 20 on Amazon.
 
My May NPD Predictions:

  • Some members of NeoGAF will continue to not react well to ongoing changes in the industry
  • Sales of Overwatch will prove particularly entertaining, troubling, sad and, hopefully, enlightening
  • Correlation will be directly tied to Causation by Krazy Glue, although correlation and causation should not be assumed
  • Uncharted will be hyper analyzed until we all want to puke

The first point is an ongoing trend.

You can also add overestimated digital sales of X title.
 

Abdiel

Member
Combined?

Uh...

You know...

That's a very good question. And a distinct maybe.

I can't begin to tell you how Shitty the tomb raider and division bundles were. I mean, more than I did on their respective months.

Also, welfare, Doom seems to be kind of doing like what Ratchet food, but with a better first impression. Good word of mouth
 
So what was the LTD for PS4 in the US already ?

Because it seems 4 million of those PS4 were sold by GameStop. Source is GameStop CEO via Giuseppe Nelva.
 

Welfare

Member
So what was the LTD for PS4 in the US already ?

Because it seems 4 million of those PS4 were sold by GameStop. Source is GameStop CEO via Giuseppe Nelva.

~13.5m as of April. So Gamestop represents ~30% of all PS4 sales in the US.

Wonder what their share is for Xbox. Might actually be a bit higher with all the deals they do.
 

Javin98

Banned
[PS4] 197K
[XB1] 134K
[WIU] 35K
[3DS] 60K

Software predictions
1. Uncharted 4 will top the charts and cross the 1 million mark without including bundles.
2. Ratchet and Clank will be in the top 5.
3. Quantum Break will be "uncharted". :p
 

Elios83

Member
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 140K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 30k

Uncharted 4 passing 1m including bundles (I'm not expecting them to contribute a lot anyway).
Ratchet&Clank still charting.
Quantum Break....uncharted?
 

ps3ud0

Member
That only seems to happen for the Xone exclusives. But if UC4 is < 1m you may be right.

You'll definitely be right when the month 1 to month 2 decay for UC4 is >90%.
I might be forewarned but I wont be forearmed

You have been forewarned!
Uh...

You know...

That's a very good question. And a distinct maybe.

I can't begin to tell you how Shitty the tomb raider and division bundles were. I mean, more than I did on their respective months.

Also, welfare, Doom seems to be kind of doing like what Ratchet food, but with a better first impression. Good word of mouth
I dont like this type of analysis

ps3ud0 8)
 

donny2112

Member
  • Correlation will be directly tied to Causation by Krazy Glue, although correlation and causation should not be assumed

correlation.png
 

RexNovis

Banned
Time to check last month's Bold Predictions

RexNovis' Bold Predictions
April 2016 Edition

1. Quantum Break will chart but will rank lower than GTAV with sales less than 200k for its debut. It will rank at 7 or below and will also be outsold by Bravely Second.

Quantum Break did chart and ranked lower than GTAV with sales less than 200k for its debut.It also ranked in at #7 for the month but Bravely Second did not outsell it. So i got 3 of 4 parts correct here. Im counting it as 0.75pts

2. Dark Souls 3 will debut at number 1 with a sales split of 3.5:1 or greater in favor of PS4.

Dark Souls 3 was number 1 for the month but the slaes split ended up being lower than 3.5:1 which would have 78+% on PS4 and 22% or less for XB1. So 1 of 2 parts correct or 0.5 points.​

3. Twilight Princess, Star Fox and Pokken will not chart in the top 10.

Star Fox Zero barely charted in at number 10 so this one is wrong despite SFZ's abysmal sales... No I'm not bitter about it what makes you think that? -_- 0 pts


4. Ratchet and Clank will debut in the top 4 with more than 250k sales making it the best debut for the series since Up Your Arsenal.

Ratchet and Clank did debut at number 2 and was most definitely the best debut for the series ever but fell just shy of 250k units at retail so 2 out of 3 correct for a total of 0.66pts


5. MLB the Show will rank higher/sell more than The Division and the latter will rank in at 5 or below. (I think bad post release WOM is going to absolutely tank Division sales.)

MLB did indeed outsell The Division for the month but The Division managed to rank in at #4 not #5 or below as I had predicted despite the predicted larger than average decline MoM. so 1 out 2 correct for 0.5pts


6. Bravely Second for 3DS will outsell Star Fox for WiiU by a margin of at least 2.5:1. Both will be outsold by GTAV and the latter will be outsold by Minecraft.

Ok so this is a complicated one. Bravely Second definitely did not outsell Star Fox Zero let alone by a margin of 2.5:1 so that was totally wrong. But botth titles were outsold by GTAV and Minecraft but I wouldnt really call either of those predictions particularly bold as they were pretty much assured so I wont count them. That leaves me with no correct predictions here so 0 pts


So I'm looking at a total score of 2.41 / 6 or about 40%. Definitely not my best month.

Still working on my HW and Bold Predictions for this month. Will post them when I am finished.
 
[3DS] 59k
[PS4] 202k
[WIU] 28k
[XB1] 154k

I think Overwatch is gonna be number 1 and Uncharted a close 2nd. Doom should do well for itself due to WOM. I got Battleborn somewhere between 7-9.
 

Tubie

Member
Do you guys think there's a chance the combined platforms sales of Overwatch will be able to beat Uncharted 4 and end up #1 for May?

I think it's very unlikely and UC4 will win the month, but I don't think OW will be too far behind it.
 

jjonez18

Member
[3DS] 70K
[PS4] 200K
[WIU] 30k
[XB1] 135K

1) Uncharted -1m
2) OverWatch - (Baseless) 400k
3) Doom - 100k more than W/E Wolfenstein sold

7) MLB
8) R&C >100k (Dem sexy Lobax legs)

R&C > HomeFront > Battleborn

Sony PR is short and sweet: "40m sold to consumers. 2.7m first week for Uncharted. Look forward to Dreams 2.0 next week."
 

Welfare

Member
Fuck it, I'll do BOLD PREDICTIONS

1. Ratchet stays in the top 10 individual charts, but will drop from the combined charts.
2. The Modern Warfare Trilogy collection charts.
3. Uncharted will not break 1m with bundles included.
4. Homefront will fail to break 100k and DOOM will outsell it by more than 5:1
5. Battleborn will fail to break 75k and Overwatch will outsell it by more than 7:1
 

RexNovis

Banned
Fuck it, I'll do BOLD PREDICTIONS

Its fun isnt it? No stakes just for the fun of it. Kinda liberating in an odd sort of way.

3. Uncharted will not break 1m with bundles included.

Think you'll be right about UC4 personally. Chances are it will continue its trend of selling far better in ROTW than in the US. But we shall see.

1. Ratchet stays in the top 10 individual charts, but will drop from the combined charts.

Ratchet and Clank is a tricky one. I'm not convinced it will have much in the way of legs thanks to the utter failure that was the film.

4. Homefront will fail to break 100k and DOOM will outsell it by more than 5:1
5. Battleborn will fail to break 75k and Overwatch will outsell it by more than 7:1

Interesting that you are predicting Homefront could possibly outsell Battleborn. I'm actually of the mind that the opposite is more likely thanks to the total lack of awareness/marketing that Homefront seemed to have followed up by its absolutely dreadful reviews. Say what you will about Battleborn but it was heavily advertised and had a sizeable beta so the awareness was certainly there (to a larger degree than Homefront anyway) and while it didnt set the world on fire with its reviews it also didnt totally bomb to the degree that Homefront did. I would honestly be surprised if Homefront manages to break 50k units.

With the UC4 prediction and your OW 7:1 prediction are you expecting OW to take the number one slot this month? Personally, I think OW is going to have a huge digital skew since its both cheaper digitally on PC and PC seems to be the lead platform by far just going by twitch metrics, coverage and so forth. If we count digital I have no doubt OW would take first but since NPD is retail only I actually think Doom might outsell it for the month. But hey the discussions and differing opinions are what makes these predictions fun!
 

RexNovis

Banned
Uncharted will definitely break 1m with bundles.

Based on what information? 2.7 million sold through WW including digital certainly doesnt ensure 1 million sold in NPD especially given the franchise's past sales split between US and ROTW. While I expect the sales split to be a bit more in favor of US this time around I'm sure the majority of copies will be sold outside of the US and when you add to that the 2.7 million figure includes both bundles and digital sales its easy to see how it might not make the cut to 1 million. I mean it certainly could break 1 million but its by no means a "definite" thing.
 
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