onemanasylum
Banned
This means nothing....it's early adopters.
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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This means nothing....it's early adopters.
Why do people expect the individual joy-cons to be like full sized controllers? They're basically 1/3rd of a controller even in the Switch. You'd only be using them like that if you're doing MP on the go or don't have a second controller (or for things like 1-2-Switch).
Would you rather they be hardwired to the screen and never usable detached?
Would you rather they be hardwired to the screen and never usable detached?
GregLombardi
Member
Switch Analysis Entry 1: After sleeping (very little) on it, I have digested that insane conference a bit more deeply. On price: Given that the console is both a home console and a mobile gaming tablet and a new rumble and motion sensing pseudo virtual reality technology, the price to value ratio in theory is totally justified in my mind now that I have digested the crazyness of what I saw. I totally agree they would have blown the world away at $250 and short term, that created a value hurdle in gamer perception that they need to help the consumer over, which is a mistake. However...those of us who were watching that conference...swallow everything you saw at once again, and think about it - do you think consumers could be convinced of that price by playing / seeing the device? My answer before the conference was "uhhh, probably not", and my answer now is "100% yes". I stand by my initial reaction to the Arms game: that software is revolutionary regardless of how silly a game it looks. It isnt a jump like Wii Sports, but I would say it is probably half of that jump. That was the first time Ive felt that big of a jingle in my gameplay bone since...I dont know when. The use of the joycon controllers as essentially virtual reality devices without a headset is going to be a true competitive advantage.
My bet is that the device will be successful, and will make the Wii u look horrific in comparison. Wii like success? I think that is less likely but still a possibility depending how Nintendo handles consumer communication.
My bet is that the device will be successful, and will make the Wii u look horrific in comparison. Wii like success? I think that is less likely but still a possibility depending how Nintendo handles consumer communication.
fast_taker
Member
No, not at all.
Wildstar75
Member
Sadly no.
[$249+ Spla2n + a three month online voucher] holiday bundle would probably be enough to get people back onboard, then a price drop to $199 in 2018.
Some things are just obvious, though.
Bidermaier
Member
Switch will be no shower, but a grower.
The concept is just too good and not even Nintendo can fukc this up.
The concept is just too good and not even Nintendo can fukc this up.
It's so funny how $50 can change perceptions. Seeing people jazzed about $249 in pre-reveal threads makes people hating $299 kinda funny. I dunno, $50 just isn't that big a difference to me I guess.
I suppose it depends on what you definition of success even is.
I think the system will succeed in terms of sales. We'll see what happens as we go forward, of course, but I feel like them getting mainline Pokemon onto it at some point is huge and the series or its fans won't be denied. I also think it will have an awesome library of first party games and some really cool and unique third party stuff as well.
I do not think it will overtake either Sony or Microsoft and lure away the big name third party support. Their big third party get for the reveal was Skyrim, which came out like a million years ago. Doesn't exactly inspire confidence. That said, I do not think they're even remotely interested in this market, or at least know that with the way they run things now there's no chance to make an honest run at it.
I suppose it depends on what you definition of success even is.
I think the system will succeed in terms of sales. We'll see what happens as we go forward, of course, but I feel like them getting mainline Pokemon onto it at some point is huge and the series or its fans won't be denied. I also think it will have an awesome library of first party games and some really cool and unique third party stuff as well.
I do not think it will overtake either Sony or Microsoft and lure away the big name third party support. Their big third party get for the reveal was Skyrim, which came out like a million years ago. Doesn't exactly inspire confidence. That said, I do not think they're even remotely interested in this market, or at least know that with the way they run things now there's no chance to make an honest run at it.
GeordieMark
Member
I really want Switch to do well, but I just can't see it playing out much different to the Wii U, so no, I don't think it will be a success.
Honestly, with the dock costing $90, might as well sell me the handheld package without the dock. I guess it wouldn't really be a switch at that point, but whatever, let consumers choose if they want to go handheld only.
Weak launch lineup, including no Mario of any kind and incredibly paltry 3rd Party support, ridiculous peripheral prices no post launch roadmap, and no transfer of VC content. At 250, they might have been competitive. At 300 this is DOA by holiday 2017.
Seriously people can forgive a lot of the above if they know strong games are coming.
Seriously people can forgive a lot of the above if they know strong games are coming.
Petrae
Member
Pretty much this. When you hit rock bottom, the only direction you can go is up.
lightskintwin
Banned
Maybe?
I think the form factor and design of the console/handheld is good, and Switch is a simple and catchy name that's straightforward and to the point unlike the confusing WiiU name.
I think the only thing holding it back is the games and price point. If Nintendo can throw all of it's devs that created games for console and handheld for this one device and keep a steady flow of fan favorites and new and original games that appeal to a wide variety of gamers, It can overcome its lack of support from third parties and be a success.
Indie game designers tend to love Nintendo so I can see them provide a lot of support.
It's first party launch and first year lineup is underwhelming. This is where lack of strong third party support hurts Nintendo and can ultimately halt momentum to a point, where it can never recover.
If they can fix these issues and get the price down, then yes I can see this succeed, perhaps with the right type of games and price point, maybe even become a phenomenon.
At $199, this device flies off the shelves.
I think the form factor and design of the console/handheld is good, and Switch is a simple and catchy name that's straightforward and to the point unlike the confusing WiiU name.
I think the only thing holding it back is the games and price point. If Nintendo can throw all of it's devs that created games for console and handheld for this one device and keep a steady flow of fan favorites and new and original games that appeal to a wide variety of gamers, It can overcome its lack of support from third parties and be a success.
Indie game designers tend to love Nintendo so I can see them provide a lot of support.
It's first party launch and first year lineup is underwhelming. This is where lack of strong third party support hurts Nintendo and can ultimately halt momentum to a point, where it can never recover.
If they can fix these issues and get the price down, then yes I can see this succeed, perhaps with the right type of games and price point, maybe even become a phenomenon.
At $199, this device flies off the shelves.
wapplew
Member
Who knows, maybe hybrid console catch on.
Remember last time we said the same thing about iPad? Too weak to be a laptop, to big for mobility.
I'm not sure, it all depends on Nintendo's plan. If they plan on getting it out in march, building up some talk about the thing and have some really solid directs about the games I think that could help. RIght now I still feel like there's a lot of questions. The virtual console, is there going to be more handheld style games on the thing? Hopefully some of that gets answered today by Reggie.
JHoNNy1OoO
Member
It won't be DOA but it'll be pretty dang close. My stomach dropped when I saw the price of the system and what you're getting with it(no game + specs + battery life). Then the online multiplayer paywall. Then the cost of accessories. And finally the launch lineup. God help them if Mario gets delayed to 2018.
breveglieri
Banned
I wanted a $200 home version with no screen and battery
Ps4 and Xb1 charging for online is terrible too, but surely you can understand the vast vast vast difference between services? The Switch doesn't even fucking has party chat without using a phone app, and will get basically none of the online third party games people play today. Asking for money to let people play the two or three Switch games with a worthwhile online is amazingly stupid.
Papacheeks
Banned
Actually means 100% nothing there's no preorder available on Amazon yet for those.
JordanN
Banned
No console has ever been successful without third party games.
Switch is launching right inbetween a gen transition. It's too late to join the PS4/XB1 and too early to ever catch up to PS5/XB4.
It's only left with Nintendo games but is selling for $300. It has no other appeal than a niche product.
I also doubt Japan will save it either. They're just going to skip it and go for mobile.
Switch is launching right inbetween a gen transition. It's too late to join the PS4/XB1 and too early to ever catch up to PS5/XB4.
It's only left with Nintendo games but is selling for $300. It has no other appeal than a niche product.
I also doubt Japan will save it either. They're just going to skip it and go for mobile.
Wait, are you really saying the SNES was not a success?
RichiRamjag
Member
Because while it may be better than the Wii U launch window, it's still isn't good.
metalslimer
Member
Not until that price drops hard. The fact that it is not launching during the holiday season. Also means the launch numbers won't be covered up so well either. April will be telling.
Kissenkopf
Banned
I am in Frankfurt amd I can tell u guys...everybody how gets his hands on this thing LOVES it. The games are pretty, the Joy Cons are incredible and to switch from the tv to handheld mode is so easy and fucking fantastic.
dreamlongdead
Member
Switch has some big issues right now. The price of the system and accessories is a huge barrier for a lot of people, this year is plagued with excruciating droughts, and the Western support already shows signs of fading away.
However, I think this could be a compelling buy in Christmas 2017. It won't have some of my most anticipated games, but people aren't focusing enough on what it will have.
From Nintendo alone, they have already confirmed Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, ARMS, Splatoon 2, Xenoblade 2, and Super Mario Odyssey for 2017. I think the company will certain bolster that with surprise announcements, too. Don't forget about the download-only titles.
The Japanese support is pretty solid. It's got respectable launch window ports from Atlus, Capcom, Sega, and others. I expect some original software from Japan in general. That is a big step up from WiiU.
Personally, Switch has me as an inevitable buyer because Nintendo has given me games to be truly excited about. Project Octopath Traveler, SMTV, and Fire Emblem Warriors are really nice reveals even if they are far away. Dragon Quest has also basically sold me on the system already.
The games I described are not really mainstream, so Nintendo is accepting their niche. Most people did not bother with WiiU, so the software will be new experiences for a lot of us.
Switch is a system that I definitely want to own at some point. It makes an excellent companion for PS4 Pro.
I think lifetime sales can get near the N64, so I think Nintendo will be OK with that level of adoption. I think it has good long term potential, but the launch period will be extremely rough.
EDIT made because I put 2 after Super Mario Odyssey, LOL.
However, I think this could be a compelling buy in Christmas 2017. It won't have some of my most anticipated games, but people aren't focusing enough on what it will have.
From Nintendo alone, they have already confirmed Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, ARMS, Splatoon 2, Xenoblade 2, and Super Mario Odyssey for 2017. I think the company will certain bolster that with surprise announcements, too. Don't forget about the download-only titles.
The Japanese support is pretty solid. It's got respectable launch window ports from Atlus, Capcom, Sega, and others. I expect some original software from Japan in general. That is a big step up from WiiU.
Personally, Switch has me as an inevitable buyer because Nintendo has given me games to be truly excited about. Project Octopath Traveler, SMTV, and Fire Emblem Warriors are really nice reveals even if they are far away. Dragon Quest has also basically sold me on the system already.
The games I described are not really mainstream, so Nintendo is accepting their niche. Most people did not bother with WiiU, so the software will be new experiences for a lot of us.
Switch is a system that I definitely want to own at some point. It makes an excellent companion for PS4 Pro.
I think lifetime sales can get near the N64, so I think Nintendo will be OK with that level of adoption. I think it has good long term potential, but the launch period will be extremely rough.
EDIT made because I put 2 after Super Mario Odyssey, LOL.
Pancakes R Us
Member
Do they have any killer apps for Japan?
In the UK this thing is gonna bomb hard at current price point, I reckon. And unless they drop the price and hit with some great software, retailers will probably start dropping it just like Wii U.
I wish it all the success in the world, but Nintendo is being a little too delusional with pricing.
P.S. I hope I turn out wrong with this opinion.
In the UK this thing is gonna bomb hard at current price point, I reckon. And unless they drop the price and hit with some great software, retailers will probably start dropping it just like Wii U.
I wish it all the success in the world, but Nintendo is being a little too delusional with pricing.
P.S. I hope I turn out wrong with this opinion.
comshoplesce
Member
we in europe pay 20% more then USA, how that sounds fair for you?
TanookiTom
Member
Not sure how people can even expect a WiiU like "success".
The WiiU launched one year ahead of the competition after the great success that was the Wii. Sure Nintendo completely botched up the marketing and launch, bit still, they started from a comparably comfortable position.
Now Switch is gonna release in the middle of the generation where the competitors are cheaper, well established among customers and technologically more advanced. AND with PS4 Pro and Scorpio there are even updates on the market/on the horizon.
And worst of all? It's more expensive than the competing base models.
Consumers are gonna compare it to the PS4 and Xbone, home console systems. Since everybody has their smartphones, the appeal of gaming on the go for the mass market - the only USP the Switch has besides the Nintendo IPs - is being highly overrated in here imo. Average Joe will just play on his phone. And the number of hardcore gamers that are going to buy the Nintendo system with no 3rd party support will be very, very limited.
I just don't see moms and dads in the stores looking at the alternatives, looking at the prices and thinking: "It's expensive but hey, I can game on the go!!!". It's just not gonna happen except for some core Nintendo fans. And those are even less now than we had when WiiU launched.
All in all I am expecting a launch worse than the WiiU launch and sales generally lower in the first year based on the current price point and information we have. In Europe especially it will be DOA.
The WiiU launched one year ahead of the competition after the great success that was the Wii. Sure Nintendo completely botched up the marketing and launch, bit still, they started from a comparably comfortable position.
Now Switch is gonna release in the middle of the generation where the competitors are cheaper, well established among customers and technologically more advanced. AND with PS4 Pro and Scorpio there are even updates on the market/on the horizon.
And worst of all? It's more expensive than the competing base models.
Consumers are gonna compare it to the PS4 and Xbone, home console systems. Since everybody has their smartphones, the appeal of gaming on the go for the mass market - the only USP the Switch has besides the Nintendo IPs - is being highly overrated in here imo. Average Joe will just play on his phone. And the number of hardcore gamers that are going to buy the Nintendo system with no 3rd party support will be very, very limited.
I just don't see moms and dads in the stores looking at the alternatives, looking at the prices and thinking: "It's expensive but hey, I can game on the go!!!". It's just not gonna happen except for some core Nintendo fans. And those are even less now than we had when WiiU launched.
All in all I am expecting a launch worse than the WiiU launch and sales generally lower in the first year based on the current price point and information we have. In Europe especially it will be DOA.
I think it'll probably do slightly better than the Wii U, but it is still going to be a disappointment for Nintendo, their fans, and third parties.
I think the launch window lineup is stronger than the Wii U's, so it does show some promise. A lot of people were burnt by the lack of support for the Wii U, though, so I can imagine a lot of the early Wii U adopters sitting this one out - at least until the Switch has proven it's getting a consistent flow of quality games (which is doubtful). You can also get a PS4 cheaper than a Switch, which is kind of insane when you consider the power gap between the machines. Are those new features Nintendo is offering with the controllers and portability really worth all that money? Most people will think it isn't, because ultimately, people buy their gaming machines for games, not gimmicks.
The price is high, and the timing isn't great either: the Wii U came out so early, people didn't jump on it because they wanted to see what Sony and Microsoft would offer for their next systems. The Switch on the other hand is coming out after the Xbone and PS4 have been out for a good while, so they have better game libraries, and Sony has pretty much already solidified its position as the market leader. I think most people would opt to getting a PS4 over NS, if they have neither.
I think the launch window lineup is stronger than the Wii U's, so it does show some promise. A lot of people were burnt by the lack of support for the Wii U, though, so I can imagine a lot of the early Wii U adopters sitting this one out - at least until the Switch has proven it's getting a consistent flow of quality games (which is doubtful). You can also get a PS4 cheaper than a Switch, which is kind of insane when you consider the power gap between the machines. Are those new features Nintendo is offering with the controllers and portability really worth all that money? Most people will think it isn't, because ultimately, people buy their gaming machines for games, not gimmicks.
The price is high, and the timing isn't great either: the Wii U came out so early, people didn't jump on it because they wanted to see what Sony and Microsoft would offer for their next systems. The Switch on the other hand is coming out after the Xbone and PS4 have been out for a good while, so they have better game libraries, and Sony has pretty much already solidified its position as the market leader. I think most people would opt to getting a PS4 over NS, if they have neither.
TheDarkKnight774
Member
I don't see how it can be successful
With what they rolled out I don't see how Nintendo can make a compelling argument. I see remarks stating they're not directly competing with MS or Sony but when you decide to roll out a paid online service you just did. You just threw up a huge sign that said "directly compare us"
They aren't in a position of power or trust with consumers. They killed off the Wii U software last year and we have seen no benefit. It all looks exactly the same as all other botched Nintendo launches
Not enough software at launch and near future. It can't exist and make an argument to be a viable primary console. It made a harder argument to be a side console than ever before with the console, accessory prices and the online paywall.
I don't even know if they can make enough games to justify paid online if they don't have 3rd party support. They essentially would be paying to play splatoon, Smash and Mario kart online
With what they rolled out I don't see how Nintendo can make a compelling argument. I see remarks stating they're not directly competing with MS or Sony but when you decide to roll out a paid online service you just did. You just threw up a huge sign that said "directly compare us"
They aren't in a position of power or trust with consumers. They killed off the Wii U software last year and we have seen no benefit. It all looks exactly the same as all other botched Nintendo launches
Not enough software at launch and near future. It can't exist and make an argument to be a viable primary console. It made a harder argument to be a side console than ever before with the console, accessory prices and the online paywall.
I don't even know if they can make enough games to justify paid online if they don't have 3rd party support. They essentially would be paying to play splatoon, Smash and Mario kart online
I know it is essentially a handheld, but from what I saw in the presentation I am pretty underwhelmed with the amount of processing power it has. I am kind of tired of Nintendo being 4 years behind current tech at launch. It probably won't age too well. Hopefully games will be fleshed out some more, but there were some pretty glaring frame rate issues in a lot of the games that were shown - and that was probably with the console docked.
Going to probably take a wait and see approach. I missed the preorder window while I was sleeping last night and I am not too mad about it.
Going to probably take a wait and see approach. I missed the preorder window while I was sleeping last night and I am not too mad about it.
Zombegoast
Member
Like always, Gaf is quick on overreacting and expect Miyamoto to come at everyone's doorstep and deliver the system to us.
It's January, literally the first month of the year
We still have E3
By holiday, the Switch will have tons of games to get.
Also it's not a handheld. Kimishima said it was a console multiple times already.
It's January, literally the first month of the year
We still have E3
By holiday, the Switch will have tons of games to get.
Also it's not a handheld. Kimishima said it was a console multiple times already.
ProtomanNeo
Member
Glancing through the replies the general consensus seems to be no. If gaf's track record for predictions is taken into account, the Switch should be a hit.
MilkyJoe
Member
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