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[Anoregon]

I don't think it will flop, but it certainly isn't going to be as successful as I thought it might be before all the sad details came out last night. Will probably sell to virtually all wii u owners plus a few lapsed fans, but not a whole lot beyond that.

 

[ironcreed]

Weak launch lineup, including no Mario of any kind and incredibly paltry 3rd Party support, ridiculous peripheral prices no post launch roadmap, and no transfer of VC content. At 250, they might have been competitive. At 300 this is DOA by holiday 2017.

Seriously people can forgive a lot of the above if they know strong games are coming.

Paid online as well for a service that will almost certainly be the worst. Not to mention no real storage options for those who are digital and were wanting more of a home console. The Wii U was far more appealing.

 

[MisterR]

Exactly, yet both consoles sold well and have big online communities.

You have to pay for online and then do voice chat on an app, PS+ and Live Gold give multiple new games a month to subscribers. Nintendo give you an old NES game. Sony and MS have spent a decade building up their online service, Nintendo won't be able to compete with that. Not to mention, there won't be any Overwatch, or Battlefield, or COD or Battlefront. You get my point.

 

[Living the Dream]

Nope

 

[j0hnnix]

I think it will sell out to the niche crowd and like the wii u die out once the Scorpio comes around. The system will probably pickup again in 2018 black Friday if there's a price drop.

Sales per unit will put it in third slightly ahead of the 3DS maybe it'll fall behind it. Definitely Nintendo will not be in 1st.

 

[Fbh]

If they get some of the big handheld franchises like Monster Hunter and Pokemon to the Switch I can see it doing quite a bit better than the WiiU.

But either way I don't think it will be doing Wii or Ps4 numbers.

 

[Suburban Thug]

These people on GAF are hilarious, don't want to pay for online services yet I'm sure most people do for the PS4/XBOne and don't see them complaining.

Controllers are expensive and too much yet PS4/Xbone controllers go between $59.99-$74.99 regular price.

No games at all yet has more games for the year than the Wii U did. We haven't even seen the treehouse for today yet.

$300.00 is too much compared to $249.99 which is a $50 difference in price and can be easy to budget for unless the only reason why is it's expensive for people is because it's "Nintendo" and people were burned by the Wii U so they hold a grudge. I know I felt burned by the deluxe Wii U at $349.99 but I honestly feel the launch for this one is different and am looking forward to it. This is a launch system folks I'm sure we can expect it to go down a little in the future especially during the holiday. Not sure how people could justify the other two systems at launch with the pricing especially with the games at launch and the year. Remember a lot of people complained about the PS4 for that and look at where it's at right now.

Saltiness levels are all over the place for sure and it's making me laugh too much.

This post is extremely foolish for a number of reasons

1. Microsoft has arguably the best online infrastructure in the industry although we can argue all day whether or not it's worth $60 a year. The millions paying a subscription voted "yes" with their wallets. Sony offered PSN for free while they built up a network that has proven it can compete with Microsoft and now they charge. I don't pay for it but millions do because they believe it provides value. Nintendo has proved nothing but incompetence with their online gaming strategy so why the hell would I want to pay for what will most likely be a stripped down service compared to the competition? They are already making us download a smartphone app for voice chat which is idiotic.

2. PS4/XBO controllers are not $60-$75, if you think that you clearly don't own either system or are too lazy to shop around online. I can get both for $50 at retail and even cheaper often because they go on sale unlike Nintendo products.

3. Trying to argue Switch has a robust library by comparing it to the Wii U in 2016 is laughable. Nintendo hardly showed anything remotely interesting other than Zelda. 3D Mario is due Holiday 2017 but we all know it's probably getting delayed to 2018.

4. Stop looking at $300 in a vacuum and making fun of people who think it's $50 to expensive. Have you considered how much it will cost when buying a game or two, paying for online, buying an extra controller for your friend/loved one? What about those in other territories that have the price jacked up even more? You have no right to lambast people over what they consider too expensive.

5. The Nintendo victim complex needs to stop. Nobody is holding a grudge or jealous of the Wii U. It failed because nobody cared about it outside of hardcore Nintendo fans defending questionable decisions on message boards and deflecting all criticism. They are making a lot of the same missteps Wii U had: Hardware that's underpowered and too expensive, alieniating western 3rd party developers, expensive controller...and now add on paid online and ridiculous accessory prices. We have every right to be skeptical and it has nothing to do with hating Nintendo.

Honestly I'm surprised you didn't pull a "everyone complaining wasn't going to buy one anyway" one liner.

 

[Guevara]

No, I don't. It just looks like an extremely unappealing package at the moment.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

I think that it does GameCube/XBox numbers, 22-25M WW over its lifetime, and then we are back here in four years waiting on its successor.

 

[demosthenes]

Right now my feelings overall are no.

They have to compete with ps4 and xb1 at home. On the go they have to compete with tablets and phones. I don't think the added value of having one device for both out weighs the competition when you see the games lineup so far.

With that said, eventually there will be a new monster hunter, a new pokemon game and more but it will be a rough 2017.

 

[J_ToSaveTheDay]

I am still enamored with the Switch and am giddy to have secured a preorder. The presentation was almost entirely positive game reveals for me, with the sole exceptions being Skyrim (I have a gaming laptop and a Steam copy already) and EA Sports -- everything else looked or sounded amazing. Battery life is a bummer but I guess I'll just be handling that the same way I do with everything that isn't my phone or tablet... Bring along the AC adapter and plug in. I never unplug my laptop as running on battery results in significant CPU and GPU downclocking and my 3DS never can last a whole day when I bring it allong with me, so I'm familiar with that AC adapter hauling life.

However, seeing the general gist of reaction here on GAF makes me think it's probably doomed to failure. But whatever, I feel like I'm bound to get some enjoyment out of it, even if I have to wait (like I always have to with Nintendo consoles these days) between releases. I've got my PS4 and PC in the meantime.

I don't expect this to blow over well outside of Nintendo diehards, at least not in year 1.

 

[Cub3h]

At the end of the year it will be slightly ahead of where Wii U was at a similar time in it's lifespan, but that's about it. It's too expensive, too late for the average consumer walking into an electronics or game shop.
We'll get the usual 1st party gems for the next few years but I'm fairly sure that by holiday 2018 there will be next to no big 3rd party games.

 

[Big Green Anus]

There's a reason why their stock went down today by almost 6%. Such an idiotic move making this $299 with a $299 PS4 with Uncharted 4 and vast library. Plus, they now are going to charge online as well. I hope Pokemon comes early to help this system.

 

[TheOfficeMut]

No way. It will sell about the same or worse than Wii U. What was shown last night was embarrassing. I went from Day 1 to Day Never.

This really made me laugh for some reason.

These people on GAF are hilarious, don't want to pay for online services yet I'm sure most people do for the PS4/XBOne and don't see them complaining.

Controllers are expensive and too much yet PS4/Xbone controllers go between $59.99-$74.99 regular price.

No games at all yet has more games for the year than the Wii U did. We haven't even seen the treehouse for today yet.

$300.00 is too much compared to $249.99 which is a $50 difference in price and can be easy to budget for unless the only reason why is it's expensive for people is because it's "Nintendo" and people were burned by the Wii U so they hold a grudge. I know I felt burned by the deluxe Wii U at $349.99 but I honestly feel the launch for this one is different and am looking forward to it. This is a launch system folks I'm sure we can expect it to go down a little in the future especially during the holiday. Not sure how people could justify the other two systems at launch with the pricing especially with the games at launch and the year. Remember a lot of people complained about the PS4 for that and look at where it's at right now.

Saltiness levels are all over the place for sure and it's making me laugh too much.

Bruh you seem mad that people don't want to cough up what you're willing to cough up for this console.

Hurrdurr

 

[yanipheonu]

Better than the Wii U, not as successful as the Wii.

The buzz around Zelda alone bodes well for it.

 

[Neoxon]

If they get some of the big handheld franchises like Monster Hunter and Pokemon to the Switch I can see it doing quite a bit better than the WiiU.

But either way I don't think it will be doing Wii or Ps4 numbers.

We already have reports of Pokémon Stars being a Switch-exclusive, so there's that (I don't think anyone should be surprised that it wasn't announced at the Switch Presentation).

 

[Comandr]

Nintendo should have gone for 2 devices with one games library.

- 720p €/$199 handheld

- 1080p €/$349 console

You lose the hybrid gimmick, but honestly I doubt many people will care much about it.

I think I agree with this. There seems to be two distinct camps. The one that says this is a very underwhelming console, and the one that says its fine for a handheld.

I think people would be a lot happier if the handheld camp got longer battery life and the console camp got beefier hardware.

For me personally, given the option I would never ever ever use the system as a handheld. So it's just an extremely underwhelming console for me. The best they can do for Zelda, a port of a Wii U game designed for hardware from 2012 is 900p/30? :|

 

[ironcreed]

Right now my feelings overall are no.

They have to compete with ps4 and xb1 at home. On the go they have to compete with tablets and phones. I don't think the added value of having one device for both out weighs the competition when you see the games lineup so far.

Exactly. It is a crippled Jack of all trades, but master of none.

 

[atpbx]

Its DOA.

it has absolutely nothing going for it.

 

[ThanksVision]

I think we will see a PS3-esque turnaround where the system is laughed at, but once their teams pick up the pace and a price cut is made, 2017 will be fire and units will begin to move.

 

[SpacePirate Ridley]

Berore the presentation I thought it was going to be.
Right now, not really.
Biggest factors are the horrible launch price (europe got a big kick in the balls), a shitty barebones internet service that needs to be paid (games like splatoon are going to be wastelands now, good luck trying to go this route with your youngest audience), and an OS made by fuckwits were you need a fucking phone for it.
Oh yeah and zelda is the only good title on release.

I see it a similar situation to microsoft when they wanted to release the xbox one with so much shit. The thing is, microsoft backtracked. I dont think Kimishima's Nintendo is going to change anything until they see selling like shit, and even then I dont think they will change much.
Maybe in 2018 if lots of good game start to appear and the price goes down a lot, they could have a ps3 type turnaround.

 

[tiggerkiddo]

Like the NFL draft (or any sports draft), come back to me in a few years.

 

[Anth0ny]

absolutely not. they blew it last night.

getting the exact same vibes I have with Wii U before launch.

it might do better than Wii U just because it'll have mainline Pokemon games, but that ain't saying much. $299 at launch with no game and paid online just ain't right.

 

[Neoxon]

Better than the Wii U, not as successful as the Wii.

The buzz around Zelda alone bodes well for it.

Zelda's also on the Wii U. But to be fair, not many people bought the Wii U & it's not exactly easy to find these days (with reports of various retailers selling back their Wii U stock).

 

[Darryl M R]

There's a reason why their stock went down today by almost 6%. Such an idiotic move making this $299 with a $299 PS4 with Uncharted 4 and vast library. Plus, they now are going to charge online as well. I hope Pokemon comes early to help this system.

To be fair I think all console manufactures stock goes down when announcements are made.

I don't think it will do as good as the Wii or the current gen consoles.

Success can mean something different to them.

(I am not excited about this console)

 

[Holundrian]

I think I agree with this. There seems to be two distinct camps. The one that says this is a very underwhelming console, and the one that says its fine for a handheld.

I think people would be a lot happier if the handheld camp got longer battery life and the console camp got beefier hardware.

For me personally, given the option I would never ever ever use the system as a handheld. So it's just an extremely underwhelming console for me. The best they can do for Zelda, a port of a Wii U game designed for hardware from 2012 is 900p/30? :|

How is anyone saying that with the current battery life.

 

[Castef]

Heh...

Complex question.

Right now, I think it will have less success than Wii U. The console is lacking a "target", maybe even more that it predecessor.

Also, I don't know how much the idea of pricing it as a "premium" thing (look at the prices of the accessories) will work, it is the exact opposite of what Nintendo did with Wii.

They have to hope that something is triggered and Switch starts to be considered "cool" by the masses, otherwise I think it will only sell to die-hard Nintendo fans (and we've seen how much of them are outside there by looking at Wii U numbers...).

Also, maybe sending the message that this is replacing the 3DS (and releasing Pokémon on it) could help, yet I see the price tag as a barrier to that.

Not actually thinking it will be a success, in terms of sales.

 

[captmcblack]

I think it'll succeed, but not like maximum Wii-level success because it's released at too high a price, and with not enough software to start.

It'll find its footing way faster than both 3DS and Wii U, though; the primary appeal/functionality is instantly clear, and what software it will have is guaranteed to be decent since HOLY FUCK ZELDA AND FULL-FAT 3D MARIO.

 

[TheGameshark]

Maybe it can rebound once it starts to hit its stride getting pokemon games and the like but right now it looks DOA.

 

[Burbeting]

They need to release a Pokémon for the system ASAP. Making Sun/Moon for 3ds was a mistake.

 

[Weltall Zero]

This conference has been utterly disappointing, with bad news after bad news. I really hope they are able to turn it around. After all, the 3DS also launched at an excessive price, but they were able to slash it and dominate the handheld market later on. If they can pull this off with the Switch, it can still be a success.

 

[Aurongel]

It'll sell well to a small enthusiast audience then quickly drop off with several titles eventually transitioning to mobile platforms.

It'll have great software and won't technically flop but this will probably be their last hardware effort in this style.

 

[Crayolan]

If this was just a console I'd be inclined to say no. But people are forgetting the Switch is also a handheld. Pokemon will eventually be on this thing. That alone will move plenty of systems. Being a hybrid also means the library will grow at a much faster rate than Wii U thanks to all (non-mobile) Nintendo development being poured into the Switch. And it's not like it'll be $300 forever, even the Wii U got 1 price drop. Not that they'd even have to price drop initially--they could release a portable-only SKU down the line for $200 in order draw in the mass market crowd.

 

[MUnited83]

Like always, Gaf is quick on overreacting and expect Miyamoto to come at everyone's doorstep and deliver the system to us.

It's January, literally the first month of the year
We still have E3
By holiday, the Switch will have tons of games to get.

Also it's not a handheld. Kimishima said it was a console multiple times already.

It's a handheld. Nintendo's narrative is going to change the second the 3DS dies. Mind you, they also said that the DS wasn't the successor to the Gameboy either. They adjust their view for whatever it's convenient at the time.
I
Hell, if it really a "console" it would have been in a even worse state. A console with this shitty specs, more expensive than other current gen consoles with a lot more power and much bigger library?

 

[Comandr]

How is anyone saying that with the current battery life.

I'm not going to bother to hunt down posts I've seen, but there are an alarming number of people saying "720 is fine I'm going to be playing mostly handheld anyway." I don't understand it, but this is a "really good handheld" for a lot of people on GAF.

 

[Laurel_McFang]

1,2 Switch it the nintendo land / wii sports of the console. If it works is another question. Launching with Zelda is a good idea. Beyond Good and Evil 2 is also nice provided it happens. That said it still has the kind of B teir triple A support the Wii U had and to some extent has plagued nintendo since the end of the Snes. The Switch has a lot going for it, Arms looks innovative and a good showcase of the new motion controls in ways that Nintendo Land did not, but Wii Sports most definitely did. It looks fun. Splatoon 2 also looks stellar snd the new Mario have to ske a wait snd see approach. Its really hard to say because the Wii took casuals by storm, but I am not so sure anyone wants a video game console that advertises cowboy pistol offs at parties etc. it has potential and it certainly could pull through as a vital and creative device. It had more going for it than the Wii U, but it will really depend on if devs can pull good ideas out of the hat and put it down in code. The line up is promising, the console can travel and finally develivers on the age old nintendo take it to your friend's house and play philosophy. Just not sure it will wow audiences the way the Wii did in a post-smart mobile device age. Still something tells me it will succeed just maybe not on the Wii / Nes level. Nice to also see nintendo moving away from old ips constsntly with Arms and Splatoon. Iope it makes it.

 

[Mash83]

It feels like they are rushing the release. A holiday release with a solid launch lineup would have been a much smarter move IMO. With Zelda being the only launch title of consequence my hype has fallen off of a cliff.

Nintendo is hard to predict though, could do gangbusters, who knows.

 

[breveglieri]

This post is extremely foolish for a number of reasons

1. Microsoft has arguably the best online infrastructure in the industry although we can argue all day whether or not it's worth $60 a year. The millions paying a subscription voted "yes" with their wallets. Sony offered PSN for free while they built up a network that has proven it can compete with Microsoft and now they charge. I don't pay for it but millions do because they believe it provides value. Nintendo has proved nothing but incompetence with their online gaming strategy so why the hell would I want to pay for what will most likely be a stripped down service compared to the competition? They are already making us download a smartphone app for voice chat which is idiotic.

2. PS4/XBO controllers are not $60-$75, if you think that you clearly don't own either system or are too lazy to shop around online. I can get both for $50 at retail and even cheaper often because they go on sale unlike Nintendo products.

3. Trying to argue Switch has a robust library by comparing it to the Wii U in 2016 is laughable. Nintendo hardly showed anything remotely interesting other than Zelda. 3D Mario is due Holiday 2017 but we all know it's probably getting delayed to 2018.

4. Stop looking at $300 in a vacuum and making fun of people who think it's $50 to expensive. Have you considered how much it will cost when buying a game or two, paying for online, buying an extra controller for your friend/loved one? What about those in other territories that have the price jacked up even more? You have no right to lambast people over what they consider too expensive.

5. The Nintendo victim complex needs to stop. Nobody is holding a grudge or jealous of the Wii U. It failed because nobody cared about it outside of hardcore Nintendo fans defending questionable decisions on message boards and deflecting all criticism. They are making a lot of the same missteps Wii U had: Hardware that's underpowered and too expensive, alieniating western 3rd party developers, expensive controller...and now add on paid online and ridiculous accessory prices. We have every right to be skeptical and it has nothing to do with hating Nintendo.

Honestly I'm surprised you didn't pull a "everyone complaining wasn't going to buy one anyway" one liner.

Quoted for the truth

Thanks for the great post!

 

[StewboaT_]

It will fail miserably until Nintendo gets their heads out of their asses and drops the price drastically. In Canada it's 400 for the system, 90 for the pro controller, and 80 for Zelda. So that's pushing $600 with taxes in for a hybrid console that seemingly does everything half assed. An underpowered home console with laughable memory and a handheld with 2.5 hrs of battery life. Yikes. Oh, and let's not forget the final nail in the coffin, online play behind a paywall as well!? This is one of the worst offenders for me as I refuse to have another online subscription, which will hamper my enjoyment of the device drastically.

I went from a day 1 purchase to a fuck off with your bullshit, lol. Hopefully they wisen up and things get better in a years time. I may be waiting for the redesign in hopes to get better battery life in handheld mode. Profound sadness.

 

[Goldenroad]

Not out of the gate with the lineup they presented. It may have "supply issues" for the first few months, but it will never hit DS, Wii or even 3DS numbers. I think it could outsell the Wii U, but I'm not sure by how much. I just don't think a console can sustain itself with this kind of limited third party support. I don't think Sony or Microsoft would fare any better if Bethesda and EA showed them the same kind of support. I hope it does well, but I'm in the "waiting for a price drop and filled out library" camp, personally.

 

[10k]

I place it somewhere between GameCube and N64 in sales. 21-35m worldwide with dozens of notable exclusives by the end of this run.

 

[Condom]

Maybe when Monster Hunter 5 launches (if it is exclusive for the switch that is)

 

[Machina]

It's a handheld. Nintendo's narrative is going to change the second the 3DS dies. Mind you, they also said that the DS wasn't the successor to the Gameboy either. They adjust their view for whatever it's convenient at the time.

That sounds familiar.

 

[Jawmuncher]

It'll at least do better than the WiiU

 

[Conkerkid11]

No

Terrible time to launch a console. Only two notable games being Zelda which isn't an exclusive, and Mario which doesn't release until this holiday. Terrible battery life for something focused on being a handheld. Overpriced controllers and various other accessories. Online subscription fee lacking any of the features offered by its competitors.

It'll at least do better than the WiiU

Wanna make a bet?

 

[thestopsign]

It isn't going to do so hot in the mid-2017 period, but that doesn't mean it is fully out. Nintendo has managed to pull a console around like the 3DS. The core concept of the console is still appealing as well.

 

[entremet]

Don't forget about the Pokebomb looming.

The TPC works on their own calendar but it's gonna be huge.

 

[Crimsonlink]

Depends on the marketing and word of mouth. I can see "Wii would like to play" commercials making an impact such as "Switch to Nintendo" or some catchy words that spread.

The hardcores that aren't huge Nintendo fans such as most of GAF already dislike the Switch's price and game launch titles so sales will be slow for that. Casuals being fooled into buying the Switch expecting COD and other major 3rd parties can cause a backlash if Nintendo isn't careful or doesn't get the games on their console.

I'm betting on a moderate success if not better than GC at the very least if the games appear. If they can cut the price to $200 within a year then I can see a good burst of sales and just maybe pass the 50 million by the end of it all.

 

[Zack Zavage]

Not with that launch lineup.
Not with the online paywall, whatever the price may be.
Not with the lack of native friendlists and party voice chat on the console.
Not at that price point of 330€.

Zelda alone won't be nearly enough to make this console a success. They're gonna have to bring a ton, if not all of the 3DS first party studios to the Switch table. I think it will surpass the Wii U though due to its portable aspect. But I wouldn't give it more than 30M sales.

 

[Hex]

Early novelty sales? Sure Fake shortages will assure that plus new thing buzz
Long term carry? No
BUT Japan is a wild card. Unfortunately I think the battery life will hurt their success there.