Fairy little seems unlikely, considering how much work Visualworks has been doing for Versus. Nomura constantly mentions how he decides to turn CG scenes into real time ones, and then real time ones into CG ones, depending on how he feels it works better or worse in the game throughout development. That stuff is definitely not cheap, even if there are no other staff working on the game development itself.
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Kotaku Rumor: Final Fantasy Versus XIII dead?
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Fairy little seems unlikely, considering how much work Visualworks has been doing for Versus. Nomura constantly mentions how he decides to turn CG scenes into real time ones, and then real time ones into CG ones, depending on how he feels it works better or worse in the game throughout development. That stuff is definitely not cheap, even if there are no other staff working on the game development itself.
TheChillyAcademic
Member
Being a staff member for that team must be absolutely terrifying.
An excellent point yeah, I forgot about the CG stuff. I guess in my head I consider it separate because it's a dedicated department, but it's probably cost a small fortune from that alone.
Have they ever broken down the costs of their CG work? For example, how much did Advent Children cost?
ZombiePlatypus
Member
Can you just imagine the stories? A staff member like that would make one hell of a drinking buddy to a nerd at a bar.
Here's a recent example: the Deus Ex 3 trailer from Visual Works cost about 2.5 million.
"And then he came in and said 'We're not doing the scaled over world thing anymore, make it full size', I was breathing into a paper bag for the three hours following"
That must put the XIII CG bill comfortably over ten million. Wut.
Did I ever mention I feel CG is a tremendous waste of money and time?
Well, think about how much it cost to make a Pixar film. Those man hours aren't cheap when it comes to CG graphics.
On a somewhat related note, to my knowledge, the most expensive canceled game is This Is Vegas at $50 million already spent.
I freaking love CG. The opening battle to FF XII, the attack on Eden in XIII and the Mac Forest scene from X not to mention all the great work in VIII and IX are among the highest of highes I've ever had with games.
That said, 2.5 Mill a shot is crazy and I wouldn't really blame them for dropping them.
ZombiePlatypus
Member
Nothing delivers the same visual punch like a good CG though. I mean, yeah, top of the line PCs produce some absolutely incredible real-time visuals, but it's still not really the same.
Agni's Philosophy is the only thing I've seen that matches it, but I'm having a tough time really believing that, those visuals can truly be achieved in real-time.
I wouldn't be surprised if The Agency was up there.
Supermanisdead
Member
I mean, at this point, how much are we really gaining over making the same scenes in realtime, or even just pre-recorded but using game assets?
BlueSummers
Member
I bet Nomura's crazy ass kept trying to update the engine for maximum graphics.
I might sound crazy, but I really liked the CG scene between Lightning and Snow just before Taejin's Tower. Thought it helped humanize them.
Oh it will be achievable... but only on a high-end PC. Nothing on the next-gen consoles will achieve that without some serious sacrifices.
That wouldn't be surprising. I mean if you look in the old days of PS1 FFs, the leap from FF6 to FF7 was really substantial. It cost like 20-30 million at the time to make each PS1 FF game iirc, and over 30 million for the PS2 FFs. While they don't provide a break down for CG, it wouldn't be surprising if the CG budget is half or more than that.
Well he did add a bit of the luminous Engine for lighting if I remember right. Haven't heard of anything beyond that, that other companies wouldn't do as they evolve their engine though.
stupid stupid stupid stupid waste of money. On a trailer that didn't show anything from the game since it was obviously CG.
Well, Pixar is an interesting comparison. Being located in Japan definitely lowers the cost of S-E's CG production, but even then it's a pretty expensive field in terms of talent. 7 years ago, Pixar movies cost 100 million to make. These days they cost 200 million. The inflation of costs in the entertainment industry is pretty... interesting.
Sickboy007
Member
Forget the direct costs, the opportunity costs alone would make it a giant waste of money if it isn't released. Correct me if i'm wrong, but this is the only non handheld game Nomura directed this gen. If it goes south, it basically leaves a giant KH3 shaped hole in Square Enix's pockets.
As far as making CG goes, I feel that was slightly less dumb since at least they could write it off as part of the marketing budget.
Spending CG money as an expensive commercial seems a bit different to me than spending $10+ million on CG that only shows up in the game without gaining any extra marketing attention.
When deciding to continue development of a game, the main question is if the remaining development costs plus the entirety of marketing costs will be more than you expect to earn in profit.
Since marketing can cost upwards of $50 million on a major title, it can be a very large number of copies to be worthwhile.
I think that depends on the CG scene in question. The Versus CG they showed in Jan 2011 for example, is an expand of what is impossible to replicate in realtime in the same way. There's a layer of polish there which makes the entire scene feel unbelievably "real" and that adds a lot to the value of the experience. But there are a number of CG scenes in FFXIII which don't really feel like a huge leap over a good solid realtime scene, and I would say the Vayne speech in FFXII should also have been realtime, because the disconnect between the CG model and hair animation and the realtime one (which is better imo) makes it a less appealing experience.
In XIII's case, the marketing did consist of all CG! lol
This is what people always seem to forget when saying Sony should can TLG or whatever, it's irrelevant what the game has cost up to that point. If you can complete the game, and market it for less than you'll make, it's still viable.
That's also the principle issue with protracted development too though I imagine. They probably believe they can finish the project in a certain amount of time/money, that makes finishing it still viable, and when they miss that target, the amended target still puts them at the point of being able to finish it, and the process presumably could continue indefinitely.
EDIT: Well, I guess not indefinitely, because of the console generations. Right now Versus probably has a projected sales number of around four million worldwide, but once the current platforms aren't viable, moving to the small install bases of the next-gen would lower the projected sales, breaking it. But it could certainly go on longer than is healthy.
ZombiePlatypus
Member
Haven't some FFs in the past started on one platform only to be released on that console's successor? I'd say those FF's started developement late into the previous generation at least (which is not really the case with Versus) but still...
FFXIII is the only one I know of. There was a FF4 in development for NES while our 4 was in development for SNES as 5, but it was just cancelled.
The events of this year are actually why I'm willing to humor this rumor.
Notable 2012 Market Trends:
-The market has polarized so much that almost nothing but the absolute most gargantuan games do well in the market.
-Final Fantasy XIII-2 came out and did very mediocre in actual sales.
Now, let's combine this with what we know about Versus.
Notable Versus Information:
-It's unlikely to come out prior to Fall 2013.
-It's PS3 exclusive.
-It's in an almost dead genre in the West.
-It's in a fading brand that has shown quite a bit of weakness recently.
-In Fall 2013, the next PlayStation and Xbox consoles are likely to come out, along with such megahits and potential megahits as Battlefield 4, Modern Warfare 4, Bungie's Destiny, Watch_Dogs, Assassin's Creed III-2, and sustained staples like Madden, FIFA, NBA, and NFS. Then there's also all the other irregular but large franchises like Fallout that could show up.
-If they wait until Spring 2014, they are releasing a PS3 exclusive in the midst of all the early next-gen games that avoided the ultra crowded Fall arena. Sales in Spring have also been getting increasingly bad for many products.
The longer the project takes, the more dated (and harder to sell) it seems relative to the situation.
ZombiePlatypus
Member
I dunno if that's really fair. I mean, I know Versus is technically a spin-off, but its scope and ambition makes it seem like it's pretty much as big/high-budget a game can get. Both in terms of profile and brand name as well as funding.
As for XIII-2, it's a direct sequel to one of the most hated entries in the series. I can't say that's a good representation of how the JRPG demographic in the west feels as a whole towards a proper FF game.
I wouldn't say the genre's dead. It still has fans and demand. It's just that the vast majority of releases from the genre are on platforms that are not the most relevant in the West to say the least.
But that's the thing about trends. If everything in that genre is no longer relevant to the West, then the genre is mostly dead. If there are no examples of anything in that genre selling particularly well anymore, then there are no fans and demand for the genre as it currently exists. If there is a possibility of there being fans and demand for a future game in that genre, it is merely a potential, not a fact.
This shows that JRPGs as they are has trended away from the West, which is exactly what he said!
It's actually why I believe it would stay exclusive at this point. The Sony contract for XIII and Versus clearly involved co-marketing, but also most likely greatly reduced, if not completely wavered first party royalties. That'd bring three million full priced units from just over $80M to just over $100M for them, they can almost certainly finish the game and release it, make at least a little from it at this point.
What's probably the least attractive about it is the likelihood of a Versus 2 is really small, it's been such a talent sink this whole generation, the assets aren't going to survive the generation transition, and I believe Nomura said he didn't intend to direct another Final Fantasy after this. I always thought it was stupid SE spent more on XII than on X, but didn't get a XII-2 out of it.
My big question is if there is a XV in development for this generation. According to Wiki Ito is heading a large project, if it's XV, can they possibly get it out before the PS3 is dead? They could certainly put it on WiiU too, which will have a sizable install base in a couple of years, but it just seems absurd they could have another game in the works for this generation.
Let's say that the market polarizes to the point where only 10-12 titles in 2013 will sell enough to reach the number necessary for continuing Versus' development to seem worthwhile.
What factors are you going to use to compare the game's possible success with the other titles on the market? At some point you have to be willing to make some judgment calls based on what has happened recently.
Could there be some huge secret JRPG fanbase still around in the West that just have found nothing they want for years? Sure, but how many tens of millions are you willing to bet on that?
encephalon
Member
Is the JRPG genre really dying in the west or is Japan simply struggling to have a strong showing on consoles? If I'm not mistaken, Tales of Vesperia became somewhat popular simply because it was a decent JRPG. If anything, people are probably hungry for a quality JRPG but Japan just isn't delivering anything like their output in the PS1 and PS2 eras. Unlike last gen, where there was fierce competition among JRPGs, there isn't really that much competition. If a developer can produce a successful JRPG, it might be a great time to do it if the development costs can justify it. But this is just my conjecture.
Turning CG into a real time cutscene seems pretty wasteful ...
Turning CG into a real time cutscene seems pretty wasteful ...
ZombiePlatypus
Member
I hear ya. It's just that I suspect some of the plathora of JRPGs that came out on DS/PSP, would have sold considerably more in the west, and sustained a larger western-interest in JRPGs had they actually been released on a home-console.
I do feel there's an open question though if it can sell 3 million copies at full price.
I mean, Max Payne 3 couldn't do that, and it had a lot going for it. I can actually think of very few games that have managed to do that lately which weren't titles that ended up selling 5-6+ million in general.
As for Ito's project, honestly, until proven otherwise I don't really see any reason to believe that still exists, especially after Square Enix had that large cancellation fest a year or two ago.
If there's any company that needs to know if that audience exists, it's SE. They must be preparing to greenlight next-gen Final Fantasies. With the kind of visual quality they're aiming for, they might not be far off the eighty million dollar Final Fantasy. In which case, they need to know they can move six million units at the very least.
No doubt, Versus could completely nosedive. In fact, while I find it greatly appealing, I don't actually believe it would be to the wider audience. It looks like it's aimed at the twenty somethings that played VII when they were kids. There are maybe two million of those people who still care about the franchise.
Well, one benefit though of just scrapping their current gen project(s) and moving on to next-gen is that they can actually design a game that is more tailored to the market from the ground up, and also release it within the first two years of next-gen when the market is more likely to be receptive to new games instead of simply picking up all the old titles they missed for cheap.
If I bought a PlayStation 3 in 2010 and liked Skyrim, I can go pick up Fallout 3, Fallout: New Vegas, and Oblivion for like $10 each. If I'm looking for a new RPG, why buy Versus?
I mean, while I feel the game is definitely doing some things right relative to the current market, I feel it's still just a hard sell against the strength of the back catalog to less engaged gamers and a hard sell to highly engaged gamers that are oggling at the new consoles and getting ready to pick them up.
It's true, but I wonder if SE will do that.
I bet they finish Versus, because it's the last 'AAA' Final Fantasy they ever build for a console. They could try to design future Final Fantasies for the largest Western appeal, or they'll take it to the handhelds and outsource it to other studios, which I think is much more likely.
They have no chance making an RPG in the vein of Skyrim and doing it with even a fraction of the appeal. But Final Fantasy XV exclusive to 3DS? Budget of twenty million, that's going to comfortably sell two million units in Japan alone.
I don't think you really need to make a game like Skyrim to have RPG success in the West. However, I think making a game highly inspired by J-Pop and the parts of anime that get the most criticism in the West is probably the wrong direction.
It's definitely still risky, but I feel there are ways to do it in a less risky manner than others.
Whether they find that worthwhile is something we won't find out until they announce a Final Fantasy for next-gen (or go a very long time without saying anything).
That's true, Mass Effect does reasonably well, and is much closer to something like Final Fantasy, but I think the console audience has just moved away from Final Fantasy in general. XIII-3 isn't going to do shit, XIV on PS3 is going to bomb, if they don't release Versus, they're going to have no idea what the brand means in the West in preparation for next-gen. They could take a punt, but they could also play it safe and target Japan and the handheld market.
The thing I really don't understand is where the Luminous engine fits in, they've already said they want to move away from large scale internal development. They've had huge issues with the White Engine/Crystal Tools, did they make this pretty demo just to appear relevant, or are they actually going to build a Final Fantasy for PS480 on it? It'd be a huge risk, no matter how closely they want to ape the West.
Another alternative would be to give it to the West to make themselves. They've tried to make games in the States, I would say Parasite Eve is one of their best, I'm surprised they haven't made a Final Fantasy in America so far. Now with Eidos in place, it might be an interesting root.
To be honest, there appears to be so much mixed messaging about the future of SE Japan, practically any direction they choose to take wouldn't be surprising.
(As a side question about GAF, I see in your post you edited that post, and I can see the time, as I always could, but that doesn't come up when I edit my posts anymore, is that just because we can no longer see edit notifications of our own edits?)
EDIT: 9 was made in Hawaii, which is, but I mean mainland.
Considering most of the team (some who worked on FF7) working on Versus had nothing to do with 13, I don't think it's fair to use 13 as a reference.
So, what you're saying is that Nomura is an atrocious game director?
Lost Fragment
Obsessed with 4chan
"No money to spend on towns since we spent it all making really pretty CG sequences that people are only gonna watch once. Sorry."
Honestly, I think he has shown that he's a pretty capable and efficient director when things go well and the development is smooth. He has shipped a bunch of games without problems, building up the entire KH franchise.
I think that what FFXII and Versus XIII both show is that even good and capable directors like Matsuno and Nomura can completely fall apart and be unable to salvage a situation when a huge scale production somehow goes out of control.
Without an open and transparent post-mortem we'll never find out exactly what went wrong in the process and why they failed.
I don't claim to know any of the particulars of Versus, but if you're in a situation where the company dictates the budget and/or team size, then you build the game around that budget/team size. In the situation that you posited, the only way it wouldn't be Nomura's fault is if Square Enix basically gave him carte blanche to spend as much money and use as large of a team as he wanted. Otherwise, the onus is on him to design the game around the team size that he was assigned.
No, because that presumes he always knew what the situation would be.
For example, he could have been given a small staff, maybe twenty people, to get the ball rolling on a full scale PS3 FF, with them putting in the foundation so when the time comes, SE can send in an army of two hundred to generate all the assets needed, and the army never turns up. That's not his fault.
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