• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

January NPD Prediction Thread (not this week)

Status
Not open for further replies.
N

Narag

Member
Square2005 said:
How many of you, who already have a Wii, were able to buy one in January? Anyone?
Click to expand...


I was. I caught a shipment at TRU as it arrived in the door. I went back a week later and they had another dozen or so in that were sold out the next day. Two weeks before that, right at the beginning of the month when I was on the lookout for my dad, a local Wal-Mart receievd 11 that morning and had sold them all by the time I checked there at 3 pm.

Anecdotal all to hell and in all fairness TRU is the only retailer I've seen to actually have them where I live. Every other retailer just has an empty spot with a wii sku & price underneath it.
 
F

Flo_Evans

Member
Wii shipments are absolutely pathetic. People predicting 300k+ are in for a big suprise. :lol

I think there will be:

200k wii
300k PS3
200k 360

edit: I was able to pick one up at best buy, but only after waiting in line freezing my ass off for 6 hours.
 
H

Hairyiguana

Member
Square2005 said:
Finally someone's getting what I've been saying since the Dec. NPD!
Japan is getting all the shipments just like the GC did in early 2002. NoA is repeating the same mistakes of the GC! They think they'll make up for the Q1 shortages during next Christmas <- that's how they thought about the GC and it they ended in last place! They gave 2nd place to XB last-gen and now they are giving next-gen 1st place to XB360 (in the U.S. not necessarily WW...)!

During December I never saw (still haven't seen) any sign of Wiis ever in stock anywhere or evidence there had been any except for a few shipments on Sunday mornings. It bothered me then but I didn't say anything once M. Pachter made his ~1.2m estimates for Wii in December. I hoped it was just my region that wasn't getting any...but unfortunately I was right and it was even worse than anyone had expected: 604k (trailing behind the GC!).
Now I see it getting worse as each week goes by and only a few thousand show up on Sundays in a few stores for the hardcore...
The GC shortages weren't as bad as Wii and it only sold 59k in Jan 2002! So why would it sell anywhere near 200k as many are predicting?

How many of you, who already have a Wii, were able to buy one in January? Anyone?

If NoA doesn't start stealing shipments away from Japan and sending them to the U.S. they'll have lost their (only) chance to keep XB360 from beating them w/n the States just like last-gen! And this time it's waaaaay harder for Wii to catch up w/ X360 cuzz of the full year head start...!
The difference is now ~3.5m! Last-gen by this time it was ~200k!! How do you catch up and surpass 3.5m w/ constant shortages during your peak impulse-purchasing period!?
Click to expand...

I bought my wii less than 2 weeks ago by walking into a target at about 2 in the afternoon and seeing the last one in the case.
 
B

BuzzJive

Member
Square2005 said:
How many of you, who already have a Wii, were able to buy one in January? Anyone?
Click to expand...

I know 3 people personally in various parts of the country that picked up Wii's in January. One stumbled on to the last one at a K-Mart. One hit an EB when their shipment came in. One waited for over 2 hours at a Target to make sure she finally got one after missing several previous shipments to various stores.

Nintendo is only shipping about 85k a week in Japan. That's what - 350kish a month? That means 1.05 million for Japan for the first quarter. To hit their 6 million goal, they will need another 1.75 million in NA and Europe. I'd guess a 1m/750k split. After Canada gets 100k or so, the US is left with 900k for the quarter - or 300k a month.


Dang - now I need to revise my prediction.
 
F

FirstInHell

Banned
My friend's cousin knows some guy whose uncle told him that their co-worker walked into Taget and there was a pyramid of Wiis sitting on the floor with a constant flow coming from the delivery trucks every time they needed replenishing.
 
N

NomarTyme

Member
How many of you, who already have a Wii, were able to buy one in January? Anyone?
Click to expand...

Target, they failed to deliver the Wii on Sunday but had it on Tuesday.

Edit: Target today is having some Wii on sales, so call.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
Square2005 said:
Japan is getting all the shipments just like the GC did in early 2002. NoA is repeating the same mistakes of the GC!
Click to expand...
I thought I'd calmed you down back in the December 2005 NPD thread! :lol You are totally freaking out!

But let's go with this. Let's say they are repeating the mistake, and the ratio of shipments to Japan and North America is similar now to GCN early 2002. Wii sales in Japan over the last month have been several times greater than GCN sales were in 2002. Why do you then predict a less than 50% increase from GCN's January 2002 to Wii's January 2007 in the US?
 
Azelover

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
Nintendo gave preference to Japan because january is a more important month there. I have no idea what's going on but, regardless of demand in NA, I don't think the shipments were outstanding either way.
 
D

Deku

Banned
Nintendo probably shipped around 400k Wiis to NA on January, factor in about 8% Canadian market and residual Mexican, that's around 368k give or take for the US market. I'll give my full predictions later.
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
Guess ill try.

wii: 320k
ps2: 250k
360: 220k
ps3: 200k
xbox: 20k
Gamecube: 40k
psp: 250k
ds: 400k

Hope I didnt miss any.
 
S

soundwave05

Member
DS - 400k
360 - 300k
PS3 - 250k
Wii - 150k
PSP - 250k
PS2 - 350k

Are my guesses. Nintendo shipped about 500k to Japan this month, and factoring in Europe also, I don't think they got that many Wiis out to North America.

Also it seems like a lot of the Wii shipments came towards the end of the month, which probably won't count for Jan. NPD, but rather show up on the Feburary chart.

300k Wii's for NA in January is absolutely out of the question. On the plus side, now is the best time to make a push in Japan, get a nice big lead now, and Japanese 3rd parties will start to focus more on that system. Which means more games to play on it, which helps in every market over the long haul.
 
V

VALIS

Member
PS3 HAS TO have a big month. It's widely available so if there's a decent demand for the system at this price, there should be a lot of people who bought one in January because they couldn't get one in December.

Wii is still limited.

360 has great momentum, but they also have sold nearly 5m in NA already. Demand shouldn't be as high as for the other two.

PS3 - 440,000
Wii - 325,000
360 - 235,000
 
T

Timedog

good credit (by proxy)
why do a lot of people think 360 will do significantly worse than last year's 249k? With no shortages like last year, and GOW/LP I don't see it going below that number for the next few months.


Wii - 269k
360 - 295k
PS3 - 170k

GBA - 130k
DS - 343k
PSP - 150k

GCN - 18k
XB - 6k
PS2 - 270k
 
E

Earthstrike

Member
briefcasemanx said:
why do a lot of people think 360 will do significantly worse than last year's 249k? With no shortages like last year, and GOW/LP I don't see it going below that number for the next few months.
Click to expand...

competition.
 
S

Square2005

Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
I thought I'd calmed you down back in the December 2005 NPD thread! :lol You are totally freaking out!

But let's go with this. Let's say they are repeating the mistake, and the ratio of shipments to Japan and North America is similar now to GCN early 2002. Wii sales in Japan over the last month have been several times greater than GCN sales were in 2002. Why do you then predict a less than 50% increase from GCN's January 2002 to Wii's January 2007 in the US?
Click to expand...
Uh...Wii shipments also hafta go to PAL regions...! GC hadn't launched in PAL BTT in 2002.
 
D

Deku

Banned
Square2005 said:
Uh...Wii shipments also hafta go to PAL regions...! GC hadn't launched in PAL BTT in 2002.
Click to expand...

Nintendo has to sell 2.8 million Wiis between January and March 31 to meet their 6 million FY target and my guess it it will be frontloaded in January, something like 1.5 million sold WW in January 700k February and 600k March , if divided evenly they need to sell 933k Wii worldwide each month for 3 months, but January will obviously be the strongest sales month of the 3 given the strong afterglow effect of December.

500k in Japan, 400k~in NA and maybe 200-300k in Europe is douable and that would barely break 1 million. I'm not sure what you're freaking out about.

And on-line retailers have been getting lots of Wii shipments all January, which didn't happen in December. If that's any (anecdotal) evidence of how the shipment picture is like.
 
G

Greenpanda

Banned
i don't really follow these numbers close enough to make any serious predictons, so I'll just throw these out and expect to be horribly off base:

NDS 330k
PS2 310k
Wii 280k
360 270k
PSP 260k
PS3 180k
GBA 130k
 
D

dyls

Member
Square2005 said:
During December I never saw (still haven't seen) any sign of Wiis ever in stock anywhere or evidence there had been any except for a few shipments on Sunday mornings. It bothered me then but I didn't say anything once M. Pachter made his ~1.2m estimates for Wii in December. I hoped it was just my region that wasn't getting any...but unfortunately I was right and it was even worse than anyone had expected: 604k (trailing behind the GC!).
Now I see it getting worse as each week goes by and only a few thousand show up on Sundays in a few stores for the hardcore...
Click to expand...


I don't understand. You never saw any Wii's in stores in December and yet they sold 600,000 units. You didn't see any in January either, so they must have sold 200,000? Did you somehow see less than zero units in stores in January that you would come to this conclusion?

The truth is, the only things we know are:

1)It was basically impossible to find a Wii on shelves in December without camping out.
2)It was basically impossible to find a Wii on shelves in January without camping out.
3)~600,000 Wii's were sold in December.
4)You need to relax.
 
W

WolfgangK

Member
cank stoochie said:
hmmm i see a lot of people predicting the ps3 to outsell the 360. we'll see
Click to expand...

Yep. Despite the currently-thin lineup and high pricetag. Although plenty of folks are still trying to be polite by tossing the Xbox a 5-10k advantage.
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
WolfgangK said:
Yep. Despite the currently-thin lineup and high pricetag. Although plenty of folks are still trying to be polite by tossing the Xbox a 5-10k advantage.
Click to expand...

I vote tax return being the main reason
 
W

WolfgangK

Member
VALIS said:
PS3 HAS TO have a big month. It's widely available so if there's a decent demand for the system at this price, there should be a lot of people who bought one in January because they couldn't get one in December.
Click to expand...

.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
That plus the fact that X360 demand in early 2006 was artificially high due to shortages in late 2005, as is now the case with the newer systems.
Click to expand...

The 360 sales in late 2006 went up after the release of PS3/Wii, and anecdotal evidence points towards MS having the #1 selling game of the month.

I don't see where this "everyone who wanted an Xbox 360 bought one at Christmastime" sentiment is coming from.
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
id love the 360 to sell well this month but, ive noticed a very large slow down of sales in my area (in which the ps3 is on shelves and wii is non exsistant) so I just figure the wii will outsell it this month.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
The 360 sales in late 2006 went up after the release of PS3/Wii
Click to expand...
Of course it did. I don't think anyone predicted X360 would do worse than the ~300K November and December of 2005. :) All three of the new consoles had large demand, X360 had the most supply, and it thus sold more.

I don't see where this "everyone who wanted an Xbox 360 bought one at Christmastime" sentiment is coming from.
Click to expand...
EVERYTHING drops heavily after Christmas, unless there's pent-up demand due to lack of supply at Christmas, which doesn't seem to be the case with X360. PS2's Januaries have tended to be about a sixth of the preceding December, with exceptions after Decembers with shortages like 2000 and 2004. The original Xbox usually sold 1.0-1.1 million in December, followed by Januaries of 150K-250K. I don't see any major reason for X360 to be bucking those trends now.
 
D

Deku

Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
Of course it did. I don't think anyone predicted X360 would do worse than the ~300K November and December of 2005. :) All three of the new consoles had large demand, X360 had the most supply, and it thus sold more.
Click to expand...
Like the Wii a lot of people were actually predicting more. 1.5 was one number I heard a lot for Dec 06. But unlike the Wii, the 360 didn't have any supply issues this December. And that's not to diminish its actual performance, but the tidbit is something I think people have forgotten.
 
O

Orgen

Member
NDS - 387.000
PSP - 163.000
GBA - 155.000

Wii - 313.000
360 - 278.000
PS2 - 231.000
PS3 - 217.000

GC - 34.000
Xbox - 5.000
 
G

gollumsluvslave

Member
I think the most interesting figures this month will definitely be PS3 / 360

Wii is by all accounts entirely too supply constricted to take anything out of the figures.

In terms of supply, the PS3 is touted to have had approx 100k per week since Dec 31, we all know that retailer's warehouses are bluging with 360's :)

In terms of PS3, *assuming* that the 100k / week is true, then anything less than 300k can be taken as a little dissapointing, especially with the initial supply/demand situation. Of course it's entirely likely that people who couldn't get a PS3 for Xmas most likely spent their green on something else and are now waiting on a PS3 till more AAA games come out...

360 on the other hand posted solid Xmas figures, and also had a major release in Lost Planet. Also after Xmas there has been a chance for people to really compare the 360 and PS3 in stores.

Any less than last year's January of 249k for 360 is very poor IMHO:-

Great supply
Better cheap, games, more AAA titles

However, what I think is likely is that 360 is very soon going to find itself saturated at the current pricepoint and PS3 will not be far behind.

360 - 225k
PS3 - 265k

I think both consoles will suffer after Xmas, with the PS3 being cushioned by buyers that could not get it in 2006. The main issue PS3 might have is Playstation fans that are quite happy with their PS2 for now, at least until the must haves are out, and the price comes down.

Wii is a crapshoot in that we have no idea of supply.

All just IMHO.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
For historical reference (source) in January 2003, Xbox dropped from 1,033,000 (December) to 164,328.

This kind of drop isn't unusual. PS2 dropped from 2,733,000 to 443,334 that same month. Last month, 360 sold 1.1 million. Will it drop 85% from December? Nah, I predict 275k.

If PS2 shipped 400k in January, I think they also shipped about 100k right at the end of the December. I'll predict 300k sold for PS3, almost on the nose.

Wii is shipment constrained and impossible for me to really predict. I'll say 380k and that is just a dumb guess.

DS is also shipment constrained, and I'm going to go way low and guess 120k.

GBA I'll guess 100k.

PSP 150k.


Recap:

360 275k
PS3 300k
Wii 380k
DS 120k
GBA 100k
PSP 150k
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
No NPD this week. January will be a 5 week month, which happens every seven years to account for the day lost by going by weeks (52 weeks * 7 = 364 days vs 365 calendar days).

Back next week :D

NPD said:
CLIENT ALERT

January 2007 will be a five-week, rather than four-week, reporting period.
Our 4-4-5 Retail Calendar (for North America only) measures out 12 reporting periods of four or five weeks, spanning 364 days per year -- one day short of the calendar year of 365 days. The consequence is that the reporting periods drift backward on the calendar by approximately one day per year. This requires a "leap week" to be added to the January reporting period (typically a four-week period) every five to six years in order to preserve the seasonal integrity of the months.

The January 2007 reporting period will include the required "leap week" and will therefore be a five-week month. This adjustment is consistent with the NRF's published retailer calendar. The January 2008 reporting period will return to a four-week duration.
Click to expand...
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
sonycowboy said:
No NPD this week. January will be a 5 week month, which happens every seven years to account for the day lost by going by weeks (52 weeks * 7 = 364 days vs 365 calendar days).

Back next week :D
Click to expand...
So that means the 1Q will have 14 weeks (5 4 5)? Looks like everyone has to adjust their estimates now so maybe this thread should just be scrapped.
 
R

rage1973

Member
Fuzzy said:
So that means the 1Q will have 14 weeks (5 4 5)? Looks like everyone has to adjust their estimates now so maybe this thread should just be scrapped.
Click to expand...
Yup you might as well throw all the previous estimate numbers out and start a new thread.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Circana January 2024: #1 MWIII #2 Tekken 8 #3 Suicide Squad ; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, Switch #2 Units Xbox #2 Rev
Sales-Age 2 3
105
6K
mckmas8808 replied
[GSD] UK sales January 2024 - PS5#1 (-17%), XBS#2 (-7%), NSW#3 (-31%) | EA FC 24#1, TLOU2R#2, CODMW3#3
Sales-Age
39
3K
jm89 replied
European video game sales dip by over 7% in January | EA Sports FC 24 is No.1, TLOU2R No. 2, Hellblade re-enters the Top Ten and PS5 sales up
Business Sales-Age
18
1K
Brucey replied
Circana (NPD) February 2024: #1 Helldivers 2 #2 FF7 Rebirth #4 Skull and Bones #8 FF7 Twin Pack; PS5 #1 Units+Rev, Switch #2 Units Xbox #2 Rev
Sales-Age 2 3 4 5
232
13K
Radical_3d replied
Found MagicBox sales data showing best selling PS1,PS2,DC,N64,XBX,GC,GBC, PSP, NDS, and GBA games through 2007. USA.
2
58
6K
Eddie-Griffin replied
Top Bottom