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Anime Mafia |OT| My Little Scum can't be this cute! ()

Nice breakdown of the possibilities, Polt, but in an assumed normal distribution, the chances of this occurring is still within 2 Sigma, so we're still within working probabilities :)

You guys are right, though, that harem king is most likely not aligned to Town
 

Swamped

Banned
Interesting take on 30years. Here are some of my own reads.

rac

On D1 I gave him a slight town read but then kind of neglected him. On D2 he talks about how he now town-reads Palmer because he voted for Bowlie/FEP again. This strikes me as a townie updating his reads as new events happen. Turns out Palmer was indeed town. He was suspicious of 30years on D2, which I think is a good sign. He has made many posts like #1518, which feel town to me. Today his top scum reads are Dragonz followed by Cabot, don't really agree with either. Oddly he refused to post a reads today, but I would really like his opinion on 30years, Exo and Cewyn.

In general I would say rac isn't that forceful with his reads, he seems quite reticent, but he seems like a quiet town, scared of being wrong. I will tell him it's ok to be wrong and it's more helpful to town if you speak up, because it gives us something to work with if you flip.

30years

Another newbie player I initially town-read on D1. Today I feel like he has purposefully avoided talking about hot topics. His top read is Dragonz and Polter but I am unsure about why.

His hammer on Dusk:

Well I better post before I get kicked from this game.


Vote: Dusk Soldier

Maybe he didn't realize it was the hammer until too late, but that's not what I'm concerned about. He follows up with a string of what I see as panicked posts, thinking he's going to get booted from the game because he didn't make the post limit. It feels like scum preservation instinct to me. The vote on Dusk was his first post on D4. The Dusk vote especially seems scummy because it's more like "Well, got to get my vote in before people notice anything suspicious!" rather than "Well, I'm voting because he is scum".

In general, especially D3 and D4, it feels like he wasn't too concerned about really digging into the Kyan/Dusk situation (which I personally feel was big). The other scummy thing is that he has pretty much been suspicious of Polter since the start of the game. It feels like he is just sticking with a story.

His vote on Dragonz also felt scummy to me, joining the bandwagon without much reasoning.

Where have the cutesy faces gone?


Vote: WhereAreMahDragonz


I will admit I'm still completely lost and going purely off my gut.

I like Cabot's theory too, but I think 30years could definitely be scum.

Exodus

His top scum reads today are Oreo and 30years, and I think Cabot too. I certainly agree that 30years could be gaijin. I wanted to believe that Exo was scum, especially because in the early days he was convinced Palmer, Kyan and Dusk were scum together. But I think he was just misguided. I think he is on the right track by questioning oreo today. He hasn't done anything big either way, as in his posts could have been written as town or scum. Cautiously leaning town on him.

Cewyn

Started out today thinking he was probably town. But he seems very scared of being a part of/starting bandwagons. I think he doesn't want to take risks, but as a townie, what do you have to lose? So this behaviour earns him scum points in my book.

Can't risk a bandwagon...

Unvote

The Squid is right... Can't risk another bandwagon.

Unvote

---

I need to look at oreo, squidy and OMG FEP as well. I completely forgot FEP was playing.
 
Jesus fucking Christ. だね
Day 5 and we're jerking off about vague mechanics? I am not a proprietor of fluff but it's a harem... Neutral has to find female players and then... graduates, I guess? Don't believe it's an arsonist but then that's gut, Seems too fucked now especially with ultron still fucking about.

Do i believe in ultron or arsonist??


Fuck this game as well. Squid was right earlier, we've got town believing false claims even after they are proved false.

Here's what i have to say. Dragon君 is probably town. Squidちゃん is probably town.

Oreo, fuck your claim.
Vote: oreomunsta
 
To back that up, 30 has never voted for the people who claimed they were in a harem, and he kept his No Lynch vote to the end of the day on Day 1.

The longer the game goes on, the likelier he would be able to find enough people to satisfy his win condition.
Also, again, what the balls? We have what... two people claimed to be haremed? I bet most of us never voted them but I'll check the list when i get home.
 
Jesus fucking Christ. だね
Day 5 and we're jerking off about vague mechanics? I am not a proprietor of fluff but it's a harem... Neutral has to find female players and then... graduates, I guess? Don't believe it's an arsonist but then that's gut, Seems too fucked now especially with ultron still fucking about.

Do i believe in ultron or arsonist??


Fuck this game as well. Squid was right earlier, we've got town believing false claims even after they are proved false.

Here's what i have to say. Dragon君 is probably town. Squidちゃん is probably town.

Oreo, fuck your claim.
Vote: oreomunsta

When did he claim?
 
Jesus fucking Christ. だね
Day 5 and we're jerking off about vague mechanics? I am not a proprietor of fluff but it's a harem... Neutral has to find female players and then... graduates, I guess? Don't believe it's an arsonist but then that's gut, Seems too fucked now especially with ultron still fucking about.

Do i believe in ultron or arsonist??


Fuck this game as well. Squid was right earlier, we've got town believing false claims even after they are proved false.

Here's what i have to say. Dragon君 is probably town. Squidちゃん is probably town.

Oreo, fuck your claim.
Vote: oreomunsta

You nuts, fep? Like Dragonz said, what kind of crazy claim have I made?

I've got a involuntary ticket to the harem, and with Ultron, that's the possibility of several players being outed at the same time. This isn't fluff anymore, and this is coming off as insanely scummy
 
You nuts, fep? Like Dragonz said, what kind of crazy claim have I made?

I've got a involuntary ticket to the harem, and with Ultron, that's the possibility of several players being outed at the same time. This isn't fluff anymore, and this is coming off as insanely scummy

I'm not saying you didn't make a crazy claim, I don't remember you claiming at all.
 
DAY 5 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:

oreomunsta (3)
TheExodu5 2283
BlackBuzzard 2339
flatearthpandas 2453

WhereAreMahDragonz (2)
squidyj 2317 2386
Cewyn 2370 2394
squidyj 2386
30yearsofhurt 2388

cabot (1)
Cewyn 2232 2257
Swamped 2242 2343
WhereAreMahDragonz 2250

squidyj (1)
ultron87 2432

30yearsofhurt (1)
Cewyn 2281 2370
Poltergust 2450

Cewyn (0): squidyj 2236 2284

ultron87 (0): cabot 2422 2433

Swamped (0): cabot 2244 2422

Kawl_USC (0): squidyj 2284 2317

No active vote for Day 5: cabot (has previously voted), Cewyn (has previously voted), Kawl_USC, oreomunsta, rac, Swamped (has previously voted)

Day 5 Postcount: 30yearsofhurt 9, BlackBuzzard 17, cabot 49, Cewyn 18, flatearthpandas 8, Kawl_USC 10, oreomunsta 18, Poltergust 19, rac 4, squidyj 14, Swamped 20, TheExodu5 7, ultron87 4, WhereAreMahDragonz 22


Day 5 ends:
cya_1494190800.png

Automated vote tally here

8 votes for majority
 

rac

Banned
rac
but I would really like his opinion on 30years, Exo and Cewyn.

30years - actually like the idea of 30 being neutral
the sudden no lynch vote makes sense on day 1
and finishing the vote on the last day makes sense
just trying to get active while finishing the day so he can get more stuff down at night

Exo - seems like town to me

Cewyn - was suspicious of both the dusk and monkey votes on day 2 could be scummy since it's not like either of those votes were that crazy i mean monkey would still be alive without the vote switch
 

TheExodu5

Banned
Alright...under the assumption that 30 is our harem leader. I want a claim, 30. I can't decide wether lynchin you is in the best interest of town or not. If you want out of this, you're going to have to make a case for yourself.

Vote: 30yearsofhurt
 

TheExodu5

Banned
I think we should take a hard look at Oreo and ultron, but there's almost no sense in doing so until we know what the harem implies. After all, they might all be dead if the harem reaches its win condition and it would essentially be a wasted lynch.
 
Alright...under the assumption that 30 is our harem leader. I want a claim, 30. I can't decide wether lynchin you is in the best interest of town or not. If you want out of this, you're going to have to make a case for yourself.

Vote: 30yearsofhurt

What we want out of him is information. Lynching him should be simply a last resort if we're not satisfied with what he's telling us.

So we should put just enough pressure onto him. Enough to make him sweat and worry that the Mafia would gang up on him to keep him silent.
 
Sorry Cabot but if I'm not posting it's because I'm working over the weekend, I'm on my lunch hour now but I still have shit to do today. Don't go getting precious if other people have busier lives than you.

I'll consider the Ulron lynch but we have another 18 hours and it took you muppets less than an hour to hurl hey monkey off the bus..
 
Alright...under the assumption that 30 is our harem leader. I want a claim, 30. I can't decide wether lynchin you is in the best interest of town or not. If you want out of this, you're going to have to make a case for yourself.

Vote: 30yearsofhurt

I'm not neutral. I'm town.
I have no special powers. So I'm of no great loss to town. Just a vote.
I have no harem but my character is one of a M/F duo. That's why I was interested in the idea of the cupid mechanic.
I've explained my preference for a no vote before.
I voted with the dusk train because I was low on posts and hadn't voted.

But if you want to kill another townie go ahead. We deserve to lose the way some of you have played.

Anyway my batch edits have come in so lunch is over. I'm out of here till I get home tonight.
Seeya.
 

cabot

Member
Sorry Cabot but if I'm not posting it's because I'm working over the weekend, I'm on my lunch hour now but I still have shit to do today. Don't go getting precious if other people have busier lives than you.

My point was you did post but ignored my questions.
 

Swamped

Banned
30years, there's a good chance you'll get voted out since many are scum reading you (including me). Are you part of a lovers duo, i.e. Will someone else die if we vote you out?

Unfortunately I'm busy today too, doing a charity walk so I'll try to keep up on my phone. But i won't be able to do the rest of my reads in detail. The short form is this:

squidy - town
Oreo - town
FEP/bowlie - scum
 

TheExodu5

Banned
If hat was telling the truth? We saw in his role PM that he had a 1 time use gossip. Or are you refering to something else?

Swamped, I'm curious as to how you town read Oreo. He's been near the hammer on the last 2 lynch trains and has been overly defensive when confronted today. Not a good look.
 
Guys, this harem thing is the biggest lead we have so far. If we don't run along with it we'll inevitably end up casting votes in a chaotic matter that likely won't end up any better than how we voted on any other day.

...So can I get some enthusiasm here? You guys also want to win, right? >_>
 
Guys, this harem thing is the biggest lead we have so far. If we don't run along with it we'll inevitably end up casting votes in a chaotic matter that likely won't end up any better than how we voted on any other day.

...So can I get some enthusiasm here? You guys also want to win, right? >_>

What is your obsession with 30years?
 

cabot

Member
Guys, this harem thing is the biggest lead we have so far. If we don't run along with it we'll inevitably end up casting votes in a chaotic matter that likely won't end up any better than how we voted on any other day.

...So can I get some enthusiasm here? You guys also want to win, right? >_>

Did you not already agree that 30 is the harem maker? This vote seems counter-productive.

I'm just going along with cabot's reasoning. It makes sense, at any rate.

I also want to give this train of thought its proper due so that we can avoid a situation like hey_monkey's back on Day 2.

Polt are you the neutral?
 
Not only that, but I was the one who brought up why it is so important for us to find the harem maker. If I really was that, then why would I have gotten involved in this conversation at all? It's not like people had voted for me at that point.

Look, I went along with your reasoning because I actually trust you, cabot. If you want to stop this inquiry into 30 then that's your choice, but without the support of enough townspeople the vote for today is going to likely descend into chaos again and town would most likely get even further behind.
 
Fairly simple really, push the mislynch and further your win condition.

I don't necessarily want 30 to get lynched, though. There's not much point in lynching him if we can't extract any information out of him. I understand that there's also a chance that the harem maker is an arsonist, but we'd just have to play that aspect by ear.

I also don't see how pushing for a mislynch here would help me as the harem maker. That would mean the game would last shorter because scum is getting ever so closer to the 50% threshold.
 

rac

Banned
I don't necessarily want 30 to get lynched, though. There's not much point in lynching him if we can't extract any information out of him. I understand that there's also a chance that the harem maker is an arsonist, but we'd just have to play that aspect by ear.

I also don't see how pushing for a mislynch here would help me as the harem maker. That would mean the game would last shorter because scum is getting ever so closer to the 50% threshold.
don't really think a harem maker would care about a mislynch as long as it's a male
 

cabot

Member
I don't necessarily want 30 to get lynched, though. There's not much point in lynching him if we can't extract any information out of him. I understand that there's also a chance that the harem maker is an arsonist, but we'd just have to play that aspect by ear.

I also don't see how pushing for a mislynch here would help me as the harem maker. That would mean the game would last shorter because scum is getting ever so closer to the 50% threshold.

If its an arsonist I can't see the win condition being above dousing three targets. We have two claims.

Even if it isn't an arsonist, three targets for a win con isn't far fetched. You could win tonight
 
don't really think a harem maker would care about a mislynch as long as it's a male

No, the harem maker definitely would. Mislynch = less nights to find other females = lower chance of winning the game.

In fact, the better argument here is that the harem maker wants a scum lynch tonight by trying to single out a male that they have previously tried to recruit.

If its an arsonist I can't see the win condition being above dousing three targets. We have two claims.

Even if it isn't an arsonist, three targets for a win con isn't far fetched. You could win tonight

We don't know what his target is. It could be as many as four or five, which honestly doesn't seem that far-fetched given that it's likely that the overwhelming majority of the player base is female.

I really don't get why you're acting this way. If you didn't want to pursue 30 then what was the point of your post on him? You still haven't explained why I would get involved in this conversation in the first place.
 

cabot

Member
It's your push that had changed my mind.

Why would 4 or 5 make sense when it's most likely gender restricted targets and with killing etc.
 

cabot

Member
Actually, polt. If you think the neutral is still a way out from winning, why do you think lynching the neutral candidate is going to make us win?

Why aren't you prioritising scum if you don't think the neutral will win tonight
 
It's your push that had changed my mind.

Why, exactly? I honestly don't get it. I've explained why it's so important for us to identify the harem maker and tried to take steps to achieving that, and you're saying that's a bad thing? Do you not want to know what the harem maker knows or something?

Why would 4 or 5 make sense when it's most likely gender restricted targets and with killing etc.

I'm saying that it's possible, not that it's likely. We can't assume too much when it comes to PR roles so it's always best to work with an open mind.

And I'm still waiting on this:

You still haven't explained why I would get involved in this conversation in the first place.
 
Actually, polt. If you think the neutral is still a way out from winning, why do you think lynching the neutral candidate is going to make us win?

Why aren't you prioritising scum if you don't think the neutral will win tonight

I've said this at least twice already: my goal here is not to lynch 30 but to find out what he knows so that we can lynch scum, because the trend so far has been this:

Female = likely town
Male = likely scum

The harem maker would know who is male based on which people he has failed to recruit. We need to force that information out.
 
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