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Nevada/South Carolina Primary Results Thread

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C

Cheebs

Member
Today is the day. Yet another primary Obama is built up by the media to win and the republican primary that has determined the nominee for the last 20 years.

Nevada Democrat results are expected to start coming in around 5 PM EST

South Carolina results expected to start coming in around 7 PM EST.

Nevada:
Hillary and Romney win

SC:
McCain wins
 
T

thefro

Member
¡Si Se Puede! - The Nevada Caucus

832238.jpg


Nobody really knows who's going to show up since this is the first meaningful caucus in Nevada, but they tried to poll the state anyway. Likely turnout is almost completely unknown, so take the polls with a grain of salt.

Basically, most of the Republicans are pretty much ignoring the state and Romney is favored due to a sizable Mormon vote in Nevada. The Clintons are spinning that they'll be lucky to win the state with the Culinary Union (60,000) endorsing Obama. Obama's camp says he's going to do "pretty well". Edwards has already left for Oklahoma.

Keep in mind this is very similar to Iowa, where second-choice voters will come into play (we don't have any numbers on how they will break), and first-time voters can register at the caucus if they are going to be 18 by November.

Republican Caucus starts at 9 am PST/Noon EST, and the Democratic Caucus starts at Noon PST/3 pm EST. Expect results within a couple hours.

RCP Last 4-Poll Average

Democrats:

Clinton
37.8

Obama
33.8

Edwards
18.0

Republicans

Romney
25.7

McCain
20.7

Huckabee
12.3

Thompson
11.7

Giuliani
10.7

Paul
7.3
 
J

Juice

Member
You know, I think Obama will win Nevada because of the public nature of caucuses. The second-round votes are mostly anti-establishment, so they'll probably go to Obama.

I think if Obama wins, the story will become "Can Obama win a secret ballot?" It's been posited already that Iowa was an easier win for Obama because people's latent racial hesitation was discouraged because they were publicly pledging support and didn't want to look racist. New Hampshire seems to have swung in the opposite direction because of the security provided by secrecy.
 
G

Gamecocks625

Member
I just went and voted in SC and was #37 at my precinct as of 9:30am EST.

Voter turnout is going to be critical today, and the horrible weather throws all the previous polls out the window.
 
A

AdamChrisH

Member
So are results due to start coming in, in around 7 hours?

Haha sorry for perhaps sounding slightly dim, but I'm from England and am completely pathetic with different time zones! Hopefully it is in 7 hours, so I can stay up for a while and see them come in.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
AdamChrisH said:
So are results due to start coming in, in around 7 hours?

Haha sorry for perhaps sounding slightly dim, but I'm from England and am completely pathetic with different time zones! Hopefully it is in 7 hours, so I can stay up for a while and see them come in.
Click to expand...
its roughly 10 AM eastern. Results around 5. so yeah 7 hours.
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
Cheebs, i've yet to read any media build up that Obama is going to win the NV primary. what are you smoking?
 
C

Cheebs

Member
scorcho said:
Cheebs, i've yet to read any media build up that Obama is going to win the NV primary. what are you smoking?
Click to expand...
I have been watching cnn/msbc all week. They keep saying he has to win it that he cant lose two in a row.

That the court siding with the culinary union twinning the court case has the burden on him to win. An unanimous Obama staffer told politico that anyone who gets the union support wins, they are expecting to win.
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
saying he HAS to win (which is somewhat true) is different than saying he WILL win (a la New Hampshire). you're really stretching with this.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
scorcho said:
saying he HAS to win (which is somewhat true) is different than saying he WILL win (a la New Hampshire)
Click to expand...
True, true. But either way Obama's campaign 100% needs a win here for super tuesday.

If he loses I dont think anyone expects he can over-come the hurdles that have him behind feb 5th especially with the clintons basically writing off South Carolina.
 
Z

Zeed

Banned
scorcho said:
Cheebs, i've yet to read any media build up that Obama is going to win the NV primary. what are you smoking?
Click to expand...
If anything I keep seeing warnings that Hillary is likely to win because of her high polling and strong establishment ties in the state.

Obama has a shot, but honestly I don't expect him to win here. Sad but true.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Zeed said:
If anything I keep seeing warnings that Hillary is likely to win because of her high polling and strong establishment ties in the state.
Click to expand...
no one has ever said to look at polls in Nevada. No one has a clue how to poll nevada. Only 9,000 showed up in Nevada in 2004. They have no clue who to poll. It's expected to jump from that to possibly 100k. Polling is done based on trends of who shows up to vote. There is no trend for this.

The polls are going to be EXTREMELY off, no matter who wins.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Amir0x said:
*waves Obama flag*
Click to expand...
more like a white flag of surrender to hillary tonight amirite

Also I want Huckabee to win SC sooooooooooooooooooooooooo bad.

I don't want to face mccain in a general. Come on republicans pick Huckabee tonight.
 
I

impirius

Member
A couple of quotes from this article as the South Carolina Campaign winds down...
John McCain said:
I’m confident, in South Carolina, we will get our share of social conservative voters because of their fear of radical Islamic extremism, because of their belief in our biblical obligation to stewardship of our planet, and three, their belief in our biblical obligation to maintain the integrity and security of the state of Israel.
Click to expand...
Fred Thompson (on Huckabee saying the Constitution is a living document) said:
Frankly, I assumed this came from Senator Clinton or Senator Obama. He does not appear to understand that reliance on the notion that the Constitution is a living, breathing document is precisely the kind of wrong-headed thinking about the Constitution that gave us Roe v. Wade, which legalized abortion across our nation, and Lawrence v. Texas, which decriminalized sodomy.
Click to expand...
Is anyone not playing exclusively to the Protestant base in SC? It'll be interesting to see how people of other (or no) religions vote in this primary.
 
C

C.Dark.DN

Banned
i'm pissed. i forgot their primary was today and now i gotta wait 7 hours to find out this crap. THANKS A LOT. always waiting for crap... keynotes.
 
J

Juice

Member
impirius said:
Is anyone not playing exclusively to the Protestant base in SC? It'll be interesting to see how people of other (or no) religions vote in this primary.
Click to expand...

Err... I don't know a single non-Christian who is a Republican.
 
J

Juice

Member
Amir0x said:
I know a ton! But I don't live in SC :(
Click to expand...

Clarfication: I know a few agnostics who vote Republican because they're super fucking rich, but even they come from a Christian background.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Being a Republican honestly from a principles point of view doesn't really have much to do with Christianity. That's what the hardline conservatives have turned it into, but there are many, MANY Republicans who feel disenfranchised by the current way the party is because it has abandoned the past of what they feel made the Republicans great.

It's not about believing in God.
 
I

impirius

Member
Juice said:
Err... I don't know a single non-Christian who is a Republican.
Click to expand...
There have to be some in SC! ...right?

It's interesting to me because it seems like all the major Republican candidates have done everything they can to alienate non-Christians short of handing out Chick tracts or going to a Unitarian church and flipping everyone off. What's a non-Christian Republican to do in this situation?
 
J

Juice

Member
Amir0x said:
Being a Republican honestly from a principles point of view doesn't really have much to do with Christianity. That's what the hardline conservatives have turned it into, but there are many, MANY Republicans who feel disenfranchised by the current way the party is because it has abandoned the past of what they feel made the Republicans great.

It's not about believing in God.
Click to expand...

To your point, the principles have shifted so dramatically, that Ron Paul is no longer a potential Republican. Libertarians used to be a stone's throw away, and now they're miles and miles away.

I think the Republican principles people really see are social: on abortion, stem cell embryo destruction, gay marriage, faith-based charity funding, school vouchers (really just public funding for fundamentalist Christian schools), war on terror as a proxy war against Islam, the Constitution as being a platform for adding on evangelical axioms.

You take all of that horse shit and then you add on a huge lack of desire for military/intelligence transparency and pro-corporation fiscal-conservative leanings and you have what defines the Republican party.
 
J

Juice

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Isn't the Nevada caucas held rather early in the afternoon or something?
Click to expand...

I have no idea what's going on. MSNBC ticker says the Nevada caucus ENDS in 3 hours. That's like noon there. It must mean "starts".
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Juice said:
I have no idea what's going on. MSNBC ticker says the Nevada caucus ENDS in 3 hours. That's like noon there. It must mean "starts".
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yeah thats when it offiically starts
 
T

timmy

Member
My prediction is that Clinton will win Nevada and I will cry into my cereal.

Also Huckabee will win SC.
 
J

Juice

Member
Cheebs said:
Poll wise only about 1/3rd of the republican base are evangelicals.
Click to expand...

Evangelical is a very narrow subset of Christian. When I say Christian, I include all non-practicing Catholics who feel guilty when they cheat on their wives. Anyone from that worldview background who has not literally disavowed the faith and embraced God as a delusion is still a "Christian" in my book. Same goes for Jews.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
impirius said:
It's interesting to me because it seems like all the major Republican candidates have done everything they can to alienate non-Christians short of handing out Chick tracts or going to a Unitarian church and flipping everyone off. What's a non-Christian Republican to do in this situation?
Click to expand...

Vote for the person they feel will most likely lose a general erection.
 
J

JayDubya

Banned
speculawyer said:
Vote for the person they feel will most likely lose a general erection.
Click to expand...

I don't know which one of them is least capable of maintaining an erection.

I don't want to know.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Juice said:
Evangelical is a very narrow subset of Christian. When I say Christian, I include all non-practicing Catholics who feel guilty when they cheat on their wives. Anyone from that worldview background who has not literally disavowed it and embraced God as a delusion it is still a "Christian" in my book. Same goes for Jews.
Click to expand...
then thats over 80% of the american population as a whole. Even nearly every democrat voter fits that.
 
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