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donny2112 · Aug 30, 2009

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 for the month.

Games/Format:

[360 Batman: Arkham]
[360 Madden 10]
[PS3 Madden 10]
[WII Madden 10]
[WII Wii Sports Resort]

[Total SW $ in millions]

Code:

Good                        Bad
[360 Madden 10] 1,000K      [360 Madden 10] 1 million
[360 Madden 10] 1,000,000   [360 Madden 10] 1.000.000
[360 Madden 10] 1000000     [360 Madden 10] - 1,000,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Monday, September 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 2-29 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: September 10th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Note: NPD release may be delayed due to Labor Day in the U.S.

Code:

                         Jun 2009  Jul 2009

[WII Wii Sports Resort]      ----      508K

[Total SW $ in millions]     626       437

Days available in tracking period (new releases):

360/PS3/WII Madden 10 - 16 days
360 Batman: Arkham - 5 days

Last year's Madden 09 for Aug-08:

360 Madden 09 - 1000K (19 days)
PS3 Madden 09 - 643K (19 days)
WII Madden 09 - 116K (19 days)

July NPD Software Prediction Results

Ondore · Aug 30, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 160k
[360 Madden 10] 790k
[PS3 Madden 10] 300k
[WII Madden 10] 150k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 550k

[Total SW $ in millions] 510

speculawyer · Aug 30, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 180k
[360 Madden 10] 490k
[PS3 Madden 10] 370k
[WII Madden 10] 90k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 410k

[Total SW $ in millions] 610

Dull month will mostly Madden.

Nirolak · Aug 30, 2009

It's worth noting that Madden 10 became EA Sports' first ever title to hit 100,000 simultaneous users online: http://itsinthegame.ea.com/archive/2009/08/25/fifa-and-madden-earning-great-acclaim.aspx

Chances are good it sold better than last year, even with three less days.

apujanata · Aug 31, 2009

Can you put in July 2009 S/W Prediction result link in the OP, like what you did for H/W prediction ?

laserbeam · Aug 31, 2009

Nirolak said:
It's worth noting that Madden 10 became EA Sports' first ever title to hit 100,000 simultaneous users online: http://itsinthegame.ea.com/archive/2009/08/25/fifa-and-madden-earning-great-acclaim.aspx

Chances are good it sold better than last year, even with three less days.

Initial reports was it was selling below expectations at launch so while more people may have gotten online it seems sales are lower

donny2112 · Aug 31, 2009

apujanata said:
Can you put in July 2009 S/W Prediction result link in the OP, like what you did for H/W prediction ?

Sure.

andy_lhc · Aug 31, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 180k
[360 Madden 10] 850k
[PS3 Madden 10] 510k
[WII Madden 10] 135k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 520k

[Total SW $ in millions] 505

Rlan · Aug 31, 2009

Ah, so it is just 4 weeks for August? Since Monday is the 31st I assumed this would be another 5 week month...

NR1 · Aug 31, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 125k
[360 Madden 10] 925k
[PS3 Madden 10] 580k
[WII Madden 10] 120k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 510k

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

V_Arnold · Aug 31, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 350k
[360 Madden 10] 1100k
[PS3 Madden 10] 680k
[WII Madden 10] 210k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 410k

[Total SW $ in millions] 570

Opiate · Aug 31, 2009

Nirolak said:
It's worth noting that Madden 10 became EA Sports' first ever title to hit 100,000 simultaneous users online: http://itsinthegame.ea.com/archive/2009/08/25/fifa-and-madden-earning-great-acclaim.aspx

Chances are good it sold better than last year, even with three less days.

I'm not sure this follows. More online users but less sales is completely plausible. We'll see.

Dynoro · Aug 31, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 200k
[360 Madden 10] 1000k
[PS3 Madden 10] 700k
[WII Madden 10] 250k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 550k

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

Ondore · Aug 31, 2009

You also might want to keep this in mind when picking for WSR:

Wii Sports Resort Tops 1 Million In US Sales - article dated 8/25.

apujanata · Aug 31, 2009

Opiate said:
I'm not sure this follows. More online users but less sales is completely plausible. We'll see.

Nirolak said:
It's worth noting that Madden 10 became EA Sports' first ever title to hit 100,000 simultaneous users online:
Chances are good it sold better than last year, even with three less days.

I agree. I think it depend on internet penetration %.
Example (using arbitrarily chosen #):
Madden 09 sales is 900K, and internet penetration is 20% = 180K online users.
Madden 10 sales is 800K, and internet penetration is 30% = 240K online users.

donny2112 · Sep 1, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 310K
[360 Madden 10] 850K
[PS3 Madden 10] 400K
[WII Madden 10] 150K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 590K

[Total SW $ in millions] 510

Christine · Sep 1, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 261,000
[360 Madden 10] 941,000
[PS3 Madden 10] 632,000
[WII Madden 10] 154,000
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 511,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 555

boiled goose · Sep 1, 2009

hi estimates for wii madden IMO.

I can see the whole cartoon aesthetic look backfiring on EA and madden 10 selling less than madden 09.

How much did 09 All Play sell vrs. the regular 08 wii madden?

Tiger did well without the aesthetic gimmick....

Accident · Sep 1, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 400K
[360 Madden 10] 999K
[PS3 Madden 10] 642K
[WII Madden 10] 115K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 499K

[Total SW $ in millions] 510

botticus · Sep 2, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 250k
[360 Madden 10] 950k
[PS3 Madden 10] 600k
[WII Madden 10] 125k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

Jesse2040 · Sep 4, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 250k
[360 Madden 10] 900k
[PS3 Madden 10] 600k
[WII Madden 10] 125k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 650k

[Total SW $ in millions] 478

RBH · Sep 4, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 200k
[360 Madden 10] 1010k
[PS3 Madden 10] 675k
[WII Madden 10] 105k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 560k

[Total SW $ in millions] 575

boontje · Sep 5, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 275k
[360 Madden 10] 900k
[PS3 Madden 10] 600k
[WII Madden 10] 125k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 650k

[Total SW $ in millions] 525

rikitikitik · Sep 5, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 211k
[360 Madden 10] 814k
[PS3 Madden 10] 449k
[WII Madden 10] 237k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 338k

[Total SW $ in millions] 499

Hammer24 · Sep 5, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 255k
[360 Madden 10] 1015k
[PS3 Madden 10] 725k
[WII Madden 10] 225k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 455k

[Total SW $ in millions] 525

billy.sea · Sep 5, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 260K
[360 Madden 10] 1000K
[PS3 Madden 10] 700K
[WII Madden 10] 140K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 420K

[Total SW $ in millions] 543

NeoUltima · Sep 5, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 250k
[360 Madden 10] 875k
[PS3 Madden 10] 525k
[WII Madden 10] 200k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 550k

[Total SW $ in millions] 600 mil

apujanata · Sep 6, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 260k
[360 Madden 10] 875k
[PS3 Madden 10] 600k
[WII Madden 10] 115k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 580k

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

Brakara · Sep 6, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 300k
[360 Madden 10] 1050k
[PS3 Madden 10] 675k
[WII Madden 10] 200k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 525k

[Total SW $ in millions] 525

rostocker · Sep 6, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 387k
[360 Madden 10] 1010k
[PS3 Madden 10] 650k
[WII Madden 10] 90k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 530k

[Total SW $ in millions] 570

llonesmiz · Sep 6, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 330K
[360 Madden 10] 930K
[PS3 Madden 10] 570K
[WII Madden 10] 170K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 500K

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

Chumly · Sep 7, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 300K
[360 Madden 10] 950K
[PS3 Madden 10] 600K
[WII Madden 10] 120K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 550K

[Total SW $ in millions] 525

The M.O.B · Sep 7, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 240k
[360 Madden 10] 900k
[PS3 Madden 10] 650k
[WII Madden 10] 130k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 510k

[Total SW $ in millions] 540

John Dunbar · Sep 8, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 315,000
[360 Madden 10] 880,000
[PS3 Madden 10] 410,000
[WII Madden 10] 165,000
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 560,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 545

donny2112 · Sep 8, 2009

August 2009 GAF Average

360 Madden 10 - 918.4K
PS3 Madden 10 - 584.0K
WII Madden 10 - 151.3K

WII Wii Sports Resort - 516.0K
360 Batman: Arkham - 258.0K

Total SW $ in millions - 529

apujanata · Sep 11, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 260k - 43K off
[360 Madden 10] 875k - 53K off
[PS3 Madden 10] 600k - 65K off
[WII Madden 10] 115k - ??
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 580k - 174K off

[Total SW $ in millions] 500 - ??

I am not doing well this month.

Jesse2040 · Sep 12, 2009

i was about 316k off. Damn Wii Sports Resort.

Not too shabby. Beat the aggregate.

Gamasutra/GameIndustry has the Madden Wii number. Something like 67k.

andy_lhc · Sep 12, 2009

[360 Batman: Arkham] 180k - 123k off
[360 Madden 10] 850k - 78k off
[PS3 Madden 10] 510k - 155k off
[WII Madden 10] 135k - ??
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 520k - 234k off

[Total SW $ in millions] 505 - ??

Boy.....I suck at this.........

Hammer24 · Sep 12, 2009

No official results? I´m too lazy to count myself... ;-)

donny2112 · Sep 12, 2009

August 2009 NPD Software Prediction Results

Code:

     August 2009                 Last 3 Months                Overall 2009	
1.   apujanata          85.12    apujanata           243.91   apujanata           633.91
2.   Jesse2040          83.87    llonesmiz           231.77   Jesse2040           615.04
3.   Accident           80.28    botticus            229.23   llonesmiz           607.19
4.   botticus           80.02    rostocker           218.87   botticus            575.59
5.   rostocker          79.43    Jesse2040           218.13   boontje             571.71
6.   llonesmiz          78.58    boontje             216.26   RBH                 571.54
7.   Chumly             76.14    GAF Average         215.32   GAF Average         570.34
8.   donny2112          75.54    Brakara             214.21   rostocker           560.91
9.   boontje            75.52    andy_lhc            210.14   Brakara             554.82
10.  Dynoro             75.19    donny2112           209.94   billy.sea           553.23
11.  RBH                74.64    rikitikitik         208.25   andy_lhc            551.33
12.  NR1                73.34    billy.sea           206.23   Hammer24            540.38
13.  Brakara            70.8     The M.O.B           205.81   donny2112           535.21
14.  TwinIonEngines     69.51    TwinIonEngines      204.36   TwinIonEngines      526.91
15.  The M.O.B          69.51    RBH                 199.99   The M.O.B           466.8
16.  andy_lhc           69.33    Hammer24            194.09   Chumly              462.65
17.  GAF Average        68.07    Accident            165.19   WaltJay             459.73
18.  NeoUltima          65.74    laserbeam           146.46   rikitikitik         406.85
19.  billy.sea          65.7     shykyoichi          138.52   John Dunbar         351.57
20.  Hammer24           65.22    Chumly              138.22   shykyoichi          305.03
21.  rikitikitik        63.94    NR1                 137.37   starship            270.93
22.  V_Arnold           63.61    perfectchaos007     136.45   kefka2030           267.31
23.  Ondore             61.2     Dynoro              136.29   Accident            246.12
24.  speculawyer        57.58    WaltJay             121.08   Frillen             224.01
25.                              Ondore              119.35   _Alkaline_          204.58
26.                              idlewild_           106.73   laserbeam           197.39
27.                              conman              88.31    Aaron Strife        195.64
28.                              beermonkey@tehbias  85.87    zsidane             195.38
29.                              w3stfa11            78.14    Flakster99          192.67
30.                              Struct09            75.48    perfectchaos007     192.1

Congratulations, apujanata!

Jesse2040 · Sep 13, 2009

Seriously Apuj? I can't shake you.

I am still claiming a NeoGAF conspiracy.

Good job Apuj.

apujanata · Sep 13, 2009

Jesse2040 said:
Seriously Apuj? I can't shake you.

I am still claiming a NeoGAF conspiracy.

Good job Apuj.

Lol. Didn't expect to be #1. I expected to be #2 this month, since your # seems to be closer than mine (except for Madden 10 Wii)

Code:

			Apu	Jesse
[360 Batman: Arkham] 260k 250K	(Apu win, slightly)
[360 Madden 10]	 875k 900K	 (Jess win, more than Batman)
[PS3 Madden 10]	 600k 600k	 (Tie)
[WII Madden 10]	 115k 125K	 (Apu win, very big percentage wise)
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 580k 650K	 (Jess win, very big)

[Total SW $ in millions] 500	  478 	(Tie, both within 10%)

I think the key winning point for me is Madden 10 Wii. Without it, I would be #2.

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