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Sony expects 5 million PS4s shipped by March 2014. What might the PS4+XB1 look like?

W

w1gglyjones

Member
I believe Xbox 360 shipped 3.2 million by the end of it's first March and about 5.9 million by the end of its first September.

PS3 shipped 5 million by March (selling 3.61 million), and selling 5.63 by the end of that September.
EDIT: It's actually shippped 3.5 million.

I think it's fair to say that both their brands have grown since those launches. Time between generations, supply and prices seem to benefit the upcoming launches. Their competition against Nintendo seems software this time around than the last time with the Wii.

Despite all this, I think that the total sales figures will fall short of the expectations of many. I'm not sure the early adopter market is as large as many think. Personally, I'd say that 8 million shipped by March for both combined and 14 million by September: numbers from my ass.
 
A

AdmiralPain

Banned
I actually expect both consoles to sell less than their predecessors did in the same timeframe. It's not 2005-6 anymore, kids are buying phones and iPads these days.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
I expect them to both sell well

It's been a long generation

And with both Sony and MS having strong offerings in the first half of next year the drought shouldn't be terribly long

Infamous in Feb

Titanfall whenever the hell
 
A

allan-bh

Member
I believe in strong launch sales for both consoles and then sales starting to disappoint. Entry price is high (even for PS4)
 
R

Radec

Member
Rough estimate for 6 months span...

PS4: 4 million
XBone: 3 million

- -
If MS didn't do the 180 and those free game thing on day one editions, its probably 5 million PS4, 2 million XBone.
 
D

DBT85

Member
If Sony was bang on the mark at 5m. I'm m going with 8 combined.

My reasoning is that the Xbone is launching in less markets, with less stock (reported) and at a higher price.

The only market in my view that the Xbone might even lead in is the US, and I don't actually think that'll be the case anyway.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
DBT85 said:
If Sony was bang on the mark at 5m.im going with 8 combined.

My reasoning is that the Xbone is launching in less markets, with less stock (reported) and at a higher price.
Click to expand...

Even Xbox 360 hit 3.2m with massive shortages. I believe 4m for Xbox One is possible.
 
G

googleplex

Member
allan-bh said:
Even Xbox 360 hit 3.2m with massive shortages. I believe 4m for Xbox One is possible.
Click to expand...

The 360 also launched with no next Gen competition and had an entire year to its self. The PS4 and Xbone are practically launching on top of each other. The PS4 cost less and is more powerful with the greater mind share.
 
W

w1gglyjones

Member
allan-bh said:
Even Xbox 360 hit 3.2m with massive shortages. I believe 4m for Xbox One is possible.
Click to expand...

I know what you are saying about the shortages... but the sales in the subsequent quarters weren't so phenomenal to indicate that the previous shortage was undeserving any kind of massive demand.
 
Derpcrawler

Derpcrawler

Member
I hope they won't sell out lol. I don't want to buy 400USD console for 700-800USD from eBay. I want PS4 be readily availible and at reasonable price.
 
W

w1gglyjones

Member
Derpcrawler said:
I hope they won't sell out lol. I don't want to buy 400USD console for 700-800USD from eBay. I want PS4 be readily availible and at reasonable price.
Click to expand...

I would guess that you will be able to find one it you look for it, but that supply will be scattered around and roll in regularly as fast as they can make it.
 
C

coolasj19

Why are you reading my tag instead of the title of my post?
AdmiralPain said:
I actually expect both consoles to sell less than their predecessors did in the same timeframe. It's not 2005-6 anymore, kids are buying phones and iPads these days.
Click to expand...

Challenge Accepted. This will be fun.

I'm thinking 5.5 Million PS4, 2.8 Xbox One.
 
J

jaypah

Member
Internet scuttlebutt makes me think 4.5 to 3. But then I get to thinking and I'm digging 5 to 4. Both scenarios in Sony's favor, naturally.
 
H

heelo

Banned
I don't know about absolute numbers, but my expectation is that PS4 will outsell XB1 by a better than 2-1 margin through the release of Titanfall, which has the potential to shift things closer to 1-1 (but still pretty squarely in favor of PS4). General hype aside, Titanfall's status as an online-only game could generate a narrative around XB1's dedicated servers that convinces the COD crowd that XB1 is *the* console for online multiplayer.

I know that there's nothing stopping PS4 devs from having dedicated servers of their own, but I think MS will beat the The Cloud drum pretty loud during the Titanfall rollout, and the gaming and especially mainstream press will be happy to run with that angle. The press will be invited out to one of MS's server farms to be awed by all the cables and blinking lights, and they'll be falling all over themselves to regurgitate statistics about how much compute power MS is making available to its developers.
 
W

w1gglyjones

Member
syko de4d said:
even wiiu had 3,5mio, i can´t see any of both doing worse than this.
4mio Xbox one
6mio PS4
Click to expand...

10 million from holiday launch to march is a lot. :O

heelo said:
I don't know about absolute numbers, but my expectation is that PS4 will outsell XB1 by a better than 2-1 margin through the release of Titanfall, which has the potential to shift things closer to 1-1 (but still pretty squarely in favor of PS4). General hype aside, Titanfall's status as an online-only game could generate a narrative around XB1's dedicated servers that convinces the COD crowd that XB1 is *the* console for online multiplayer.

I know that there's nothing stopping PS4 devs from having dedicated servers of their own, but I think MS will beat the The Cloud drum pretty loud during the Titanfall rollout, and the gaming and especially mainstream press will be happy to run with that angle. The press will be invited out to one of MS's server farms to be awed by all the cables and blinking lights, and they'll be falling all over themselves to regurgitate statistics about how much compute power MS is making available to its developers.
Click to expand...

Interestingly... I think, as far as cross-gen games go, Titanfall will be one of the best indicators of how many people jump to next-gen adoption in the first year of the new consoles. I think that games like Asscreed or Fifa aren't as good indicators, IMO.
 
W

w1gglyjones

Member
Icecait said:
I see where it says "The executive said Sony hopes to sell 5 million PS4 units by the end of FY 2013" but I don't see where it says "Sony expects 5 million PS4s shipped by March 2014."

Misleading title is misleading.
Click to expand...

it's actually not

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=680989

President of Sony's Worldwide Studios for Sony Computer Entertainment Shuhei Yoshida clarified on Twitter that House meant during fiscal 2013, meaning by March 2014.
Click to expand...
 
Hydrargyrus

Hydrargyrus

Member
I think that those are good numbers, conservative, but good numbers.

By the look of the preorders, I suppose that the shipped/selled numbers will be close
 
W

w1gglyjones

Member
jaypah said:
It really does sound almost possible though. In a climate where gamers are starved for these consoles and the PS4 being $400 I could see a 10mil combined happening.
Click to expand...

There is no hard data behind just how many gamers are "starved for next-gen." All we know is that there are gamers who are "tired of 8 year old machines, thirsty for next-gen consoles." There's actually little data to show how many 1st year adopters exist and how much money they are willing to spend. Unless you want to count some surveys and Wii U sales. Pre-order data is good, but that's limited in terms of it usually being applicable for launch sales.
 
D

DBT85

Member
allan-bh said:
Even Xbox 360 hit 3.2m with massive shortages. I believe 4m for Xbox One is possible.
Click to expand...

I just don't see where, honestly.

The 360 was the only place to play "HD" games on console for a year, more in the EU. It was also cheaper and even more so if you went for the gimp pack (no idea what ratio of Core to Premium units sold). The Xbone is: $100, £150, €90 more expensive than the Premium 360 SKU. In the UK if you bought the Core 360 you could by TWO for the launch price of a PS3/Xbox One.

The Xbox brand is currently strongest in (IIRC) a sum total of two markets, the US, and the UK. With both having about a 3:2 sales ratio against the PS3. The UK looks to be flipping over to 3:2 the other way, based only on pre order numbers from Zomg, amazon rankings etc.

I cannot see the US staying with the Xbox at a 3:2 ratio. I'm guessing 1:1 at worst for Sony.

The rest of the world is PlayStation territory, and they are actually launching in the rest of the world before the deadline on this 5m prediction and in most countries early enough to have at least 3 months on sale in those countries. We've seen fewer stock allocated to pre orders AND pre orders still available for launch day for the Xbone in some places while the PS4 has more available for pre order and sold out.
 
B

bobbytkc

ADD New Gen Gamer
Sony is launching in more regions, and will likely be dominant in Europe and Asia.

I'd say

PS4: 5 million
Xbone: 3.5 Million
 
1

1st Course

Member
Icecait said:
I hope you will change the title to reflect what's actually in the article.
I expect you to change the title to reflect what's actually in the article.

Do you see the difference?
Click to expand...

There are nothing wrong with the title. The article say FY 2013.

Fiscal year in Japan starts in April and end in March.

Sony FY 2013 for example = April 2013 - March 2014.
 
S

syko de4d

Member
clubstoic said:
I don't expect people to replace their ps3s and 360s so quickly.
Click to expand...

i dont know, this is the first time ever the consoles (PS360) have a real online community with friendlist etc.

I can imagine that people get highly influenced by people on their friendlist playing the new console and just say "F**** that i buy it now, i want to play the better cod and dont fall behind" xD

edit: or you are in 2014 and as a PS3 PS+ user you already have a dozen free PS4 titles (mostly Indi games, i dont think there will be many big AAA titles for PS+ on PS4 in the first 6months :p). Thats will make the PS4 really attractive.
 
Neff

Neff

Member
9thwonder said:
bookmarking this post
Click to expand...

Here's another one for you.

PS2 rode on the huge success of the PSone, and PS3 likewise on the back of PS2, despite faltering quickly. While PS3 was ultimately very successful, it wasn't a dominating brand, and PS4 will be jumping headfirst into a shitty economy, cheerleading a mediocre selection of higher resolution PS3/360 games. I'm quite happy to echo guesses that it'll enjoy a big start, but tail off noticeably once the Sony fans and impulse purchasers have had their fill.
 
I

Icecait

Banned
1st Course said:
There are nothing wrong with the title. The article say FY 2013.

Fiscal year in Japan starts in April and end in March.

Sony FY 2013 for example = April 2013 - March 2014.
Click to expand...

I was talking about using the word "expect" vs the word "hope" and not the date, which I thought I made abundantly clear in my second post, the one that you quoted that used two sentences with the only difference being "hope" and "expect" and which made no mention of the date.

I guess I was wrong.
 
F

FZZ

Banned
6 million total for both ( PS4 + Xbox One) by March 2013.

I don't think Sony will hit their target, and other than launch + December I don't see the consoles shifting massive amounts of units.
 
C

Chamber

love on your sleeve
syko de4d said:
even wiiu had 3,5mio, i can´t see any of both doing worse than this.
4mio Xbox one
6mio PS4
Click to expand...

Xbox One has much wider appeal than Wii U but it's balanced out by the $500 price tag IMO. Wouldn't be surprised if it sold around the same.

I think a combined 8-9 million sounds about right.
 
C

coolasj19

Why are you reading my tag instead of the title of my post?
w1gglyjones said:
There is no hard data behind just how many gamers are "starved for next-gen." All we know is that there are gamers who are "tired of 8 year old machines, thirsty for next-gen consoles." There's actually little data to show how many 1st year adopters exist and how much money they are willing to spend. Unless you want to count some surveys and Wii U sales. Pre-order data is good, but that's limited in terms of it usually being applicable for launch sales.
Click to expand...

There's data all around you. You just have to interpret it the right way.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...duty-ghosts-pre-orders-on-next-gen-hesitation

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkai...over-last-year-still-top-1m-units-first-week/

Both of these point to losing around or more than 0.5 Millions sales. That doesn't just happen for no reason. It means that even among the crowd of people that only play CoD and Madden, there's a clear demand for next-gen consoles. It's there.
 
W

w1gglyjones

Member
Icecait said:
I was talking about using the word "expect" vs the word "hope" and not the date, which I thought I made abundantly clear in my second post, the one that you quoted that used two sentences with the only difference being "hope" and "expect" and which made no mention of the date.

I guess I was wrong.
Click to expand...

This is Sony's forecast. You are the only challenging it based on your literal reading of the reports from games outlets. Yosp already said 5 million by fiscal year 2013, i.e. end of March 2014. That's the language and clarification he uses discussing Andrew House's announcement because it's a forecast made by Sony aligned with their accounting cycle.

coolasj19 said:
There's data all around you. You just have to interpret it the right way.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...duty-ghosts-pre-orders-on-next-gen-hesitation

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkai...over-last-year-still-top-1m-units-first-week/

Both of these point to losing around or more than 0.5 Millions sales. That doesn't just happen for no reason. It means that even among the crowd of people that only play CoD and Madden, there's a clear demand for next-gen consoles. It's there.
Click to expand...

Clearly no. It means that among buyers of Madden and COD, there are people holding out for next-gen versions. You say that as if everyone who buys those guys only plays those games. Truth is, you don't know the breakdown of madden-only vs madden+other games, same for COD. And you don't know, out of the people who held out, if they are gamers who "only play Madden or COD" or if they are more dedicated gamers or a combination of the two.

The data merely shows there is a group of people who will be early adopters. It doesn't give any indication of how large this group will be within the first year. Or how much software they will be buying.

syko de4d said:
i dont know, this is the first time ever the consoles (PS360) have a real online community with friendlist etc.

I can imagine that people get highly influenced by people on their friendlist playing the new console and just say "F**** that i buy it now, i want to play the better cod and dont fall behind" xD

edit: or you are in 2014 and as a PS3 PS+ user you already have a dozen free PS4 titles (mostly Indi games, i dont think there will be many big AAA titles for PS+ on PS4 in the first 6months :p). Thats will make the PS4 really attractive.
Click to expand...

It's easier for working adults than for college students or youth to say "all my friends are upgrading, I should too."
 
I

Icecait

Banned
w1gglyjones said:
This is Sony's forecast. You are the only challenging it based on your literal reading of the reports from games outlets. Yosp already said 5 million by fiscal year 2013, i.e. end of March 2014. That's the language and clarification he uses discussing Andrew House's announcement because it's a forecast made by Sony aligned with their accounting cycle.
Click to expand...

Am I being trolled at this point?
 
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