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Media Create Sales: Week 8, 2014 (Feb 17 - Feb 23)

Glass Joe

Member
Nintendo's business is starting to get under attack in Japan too. If this will not cause a reaction, I don't know what will.

In my opinion, Nintendo is in serious danger to end up being unable to be part of this industry anymore. And not in 10 years - this fall or next year, looking at the trends.

Nintendo out of the video game business by Fall. You heard it here first on NeoGAF, folks!
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Do we have complete software numbers for the PS4? No? Then why are we bring up complete PS3 and PSV numbers? Let's try to compare like against like. I admit it's not a perfect comparison, but neither is yours.

2K14 is the only game that didn't chart? What about Contrast? Resogun? Joysound Dive 2? Just Dance 2014? Lego Marvel Super Heroes? Madden NFL 25? NBA Live 14? The Pinball Arcade? Pool Nation Extreme? Skylanders: Swap Force? Sound Shapes? Tiny Brains? Tottemo E Mahjong Plus? Trine 2: Complete Story?

Oh, not to mention Knack comes with every system!

But let me ask you back the same question - what are you trying to show? That PS4 software performed badly? Is that what you're arguing?

You have mixed Japan with USA. If I say only 2K14 it's only 2K14. And yes, software is bad.
 

Spiegel

Member
He's got the numbers right there in his post, and for some reason you cut them out and replaced them with "bla bla bla".

What's the problem? I wanted to give context to the quote without quoting the whole post.

Replace the bla bla bla with ...

It wasn't my intention.to imply anything.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
In my opinion, Nintendo is in serious danger to end up being unable to be part of this industry anymore. And not in 10 years - this fall or next year, looking at the trends.

I think you have to give the 10 years because Nintendo could technically produce 2 failing handheld generations more and run on bank before hitting a total dead end. Although I have to assume investors would mutiny or something after the first failed 3ds successor, doubly quick if QOL is the non-starter most are expecting.

Not even close.

Dragon Quest 11 (although that seems a bit up in the air) and respective Pokemon and Monster Hunter follow ups? That seems about all thats left, and not sure thats going to grow the hardware beyond current owners.
 

Somnid

Member
3DS is dying. Not surprising, taking into account that smartphone penetration in Japan is expected to go up from 40something to 70something this year.

Nintendo NEEDS an Android based smartphone; third pillar emergency.

Terrible analysis. Actually it has little to do with phones and much more to do with hardware saturation. 3DS is a mature system than has sold a lot of units and released a lot of Nintendo stable franchises. Software is selling pretty well. If Nintendo wishes to continue growing 3DS hardware they have 3 options: upgrade model (not necessarily a successor, but even a 3DSi that gave people reasons to upgrade), lower price (more likely this means 2DS release), or release games that appeal to an audience they don't already have a large amount of.
 
What about Contrast? Resogun? Joysound Dive 2? Just Dance 2014? Lego Marvel Super Heroes? Madden NFL 25? NBA Live 14? The Pinball Arcade? Pool Nation Extreme? Skylanders: Swap Force? Sound Shapes? Tiny Brains? Tottemo E Mahjong Plus? Trine 2: Complete Story?

None of those are available at retail in Japan atm.
 

btkadams

Member
This doesn't include digital sales, correct?

If digital sales are low as well, what are the Japanese people buying their PS4s for? MGS?
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
Chris1964 said:
Vita must have sold more as digital if we go there.
We know it did - but Vita also didn't launch with a dozen+ DD-only titles and bundled 1 retail & 2 digital games along with a slew of F2P software.

Given that everyone's argument is that software lacks appeal to begin with - the free & bundled stuff should have that much more impact on early buyers...
 
Terrible analysis. Actually it has little to do with phones and much more to do with hardware saturation. 3DS is a mature system than has sold a lot of units and released a lot of Nintendo stable franchises. Software is selling pretty well. If Nintendo wishes to continue growing 3DS hardware they have 3 options: upgrade model (not necessarily a successor, but even a 3DSi that gave people reasons to upgrade), lower price (more likely this means 2DS release), or release games that appeal to an audience they don't already have a large amount of.

What's the point of getting people to upgrade to new model if it won't expand userbase ?
 

Somnid

Member
You think? I'm pretty pessimistic on 3DS' future in Japan. You think DQ11 will be enough to ride the console for another year? Unless I'm missing something else.

I think unless Nintendo has gone whole hog and devoting most of their resources to Wii U then yes, we are missing something. They haven't announced everything for this year. I do think that these eShop experiments like Darumeshi and Steel Diver at least will become more prominent at the very least though.

What's the point of getting people to upgrade to new model if it won't expand userbase ?

People are looking at pure hardware and that's how you raise your hardware sales. I mean yes they do get some profit from hardware and upgrade models create a cheaper market for previous models which would be the answers you're looking for but in terms of how badly hardware sales affects them overall it's based on how that impacts software sales. New machines drum up interest overall.
 

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
Wouldn't say they're "good" (they aren't), but better than some of the comments suggested.

It's just a 0.62 rate without Knack, but there are many reasons for that.

PS4 owners can play Knack, F2P-games and FF14-beta for free and also get some cross-platform games really cheap from PSN if they own the PS3 version already. And since probably more than 90% of the PS4 owners also own a PS3, they also have some of these "PS3 upgrade"-supported games at home.

Well he's right about all Sony systems launching in Japan with low (<1) attach rate (at least in Media Create charts). Including PS2 IIRC.

But if people used "Matrix was part of the attach-rate" excuse on PS2, we could argue "all those PS3 cross-gens are probably upgrade-purchases" for PS4 :p

damn, and i want to believe the above quote too!
 
None of those are available at retail in Japan atm.

That's part of the point - now there are digital games for sale, and Knack is bundled. There is no perfect 1-to-1 comparison. But if we take software from the top 20 retail list, and compare it to past Sony systems, even excluding Knack, it's comparable if not better. It's not a perfect comparison, but it would be a stretch to say PS4 software is "performing badly."

It will pick up. It always has.
 
3DS dropping 7K with 7 games on the chart compared to Vita dropping 100 with no games on the chart at all. Yes, Nintendo should be panic right now.
 

Fehyd

Banned
It's entirely possible that some of the ps4 sales had to do with ffxiv as well. Don't know what the active userbase is for Japan, but we could have a few hundred thousand ps3 players salivating at the chance to play an almost pc-port.

I know in the US a lot of people are upgrading solely for the console mmo, so some people might've been securing a console early for the beta access. Remember, FFXI still has a large console following in Japan.
 

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
PS4 software sales are actually quite good, despite what most people here are saying.

First, you have to remember that the Wii U launched during the holidays, and that Nintendo systems get a much larger boost during the holidays than Sony systems. Also, Nintendo 1st party software always do great numbers, but they are few in number. Sony systems, on the other hand, tend to start off slow, with more variety in titles (due in large part to 3rd parties), and lower volumes for each title.

In order to properly gauge PS4's performance, you have to compare it to past Sony systems.

Compare the PS4 launch software in the top 20 to the PS3 launch software in the top 20:

01./00. [PS4] Knack # <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.02.22} (¥5.145) - 309.304 / NEW
03./00. [PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) {2014.02.22} (¥8.600) - 82.540 / NEW
07./00. [PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.02.22} (¥7.245) - 32.336 / NEW
08./00. [PS4] Battlefield 4 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} (¥7.665) - 24.799 / NEW
11./00. [PS4] Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2014.02.22} (¥8.190) - 14.356 / NEW
13./00. [PS4] Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2014.02.22} (¥8.820) - 13.862 / NEW
14./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: Ghosts - Dubbed Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) {2014.02.22} (¥7.980) - 13.701 / NEW
15./00. [PS4] Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition <ADV> (Square Enix) {2014.02.22} (¥4.800) - 12.093 / NEW
18./00. [PS4] FIFA 14 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} (¥7.665) - 8.808 / NEW
20./00. [PS4] Need for Speed: &#8203;&#8203;Rivals <RCE> (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} (¥7.665) - 6.602 / NEW

Total: 209097 (without Knack)

9. (PS3) Ridge Racer 7 - Bandai Namco - 21,655 - NEW
10. (PS3) Gundam: sales Target not in Sight - Bandai Namco - 21,310 - NEW
13. (PS3) Resistance - SCE - 13,545 - NEW

Total: 56510

The fact that 10 out of the 20 titles are PS4 titles bodes well for the system. The numbers are low mostly because Knack is bundled, and that software sales across the board are low. Most people were predicting sales of Yakuza to be 2.5:1 in PS3's favor. In reality, the ratio is only 1.7:1. Even in Japan, consumers are more eager than previously anticipated to move on from the PS3 to the PS4. That's excellent news.

Edit: even more proof, see Vita's 1st week software sales, note that Vita actually pushed more hardware than the PS4.

07./00. [PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational <SPT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥4.980) - 61.412 / NEW
08./00. [PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥5.980) - 48.224 / NEW
18./00. [PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2011.12.17} (¥6.090) - 29.181 / NEW
19./00. [PSV] Lord of Apocalypse <RPG> (Square Enix) {2011.12.17} (¥5.980) - 28.742 / NEW

Total: 167559

all of this on top of there being probably strong digital sales (on average at least 20%) compared to PS3 launch with zero digital sales.
 
Terrible analysis. Actually it has little to do with phones and much more to do with hardware saturation. 3DS is a mature system than has sold a lot of units and released a lot of Nintendo stable franchises. Software is selling pretty well. If Nintendo wishes to continue growing 3DS hardware they have 3 options: upgrade model (not necessarily a successor, but even a 3DSi that gave people reasons to upgrade), lower price (more likely this means 2DS release), or release games that appeal to an audience they don't already have a large amount of.

Considering 3DS has most of the bigger franchises in Japan except for mainline Final Fantasy hitting "saturation" at 15 million is worrisome by itself.

3DS is suffering due to smartphone penetration, no way to spin it.

3DS dropping 7K with 7 games on the chart compared to Vita dropping 100 with no games on the chart at all. Yes, Nintendo should be panic right now.

Vita is a non factor.
 

Hellraider

Member
I think unless Nintendo has gone whole hog and devoting most of their resources to Wii U then yes, we are missing something. They haven't announced everything for this year. I do think that these eShop experiments like Darumeshi and Steel Diver at least will become more prominent at the very least though.

We can't be missing something for the past 4 years. It's pretty safe to assume whatever output Nintendo currently has is their maximum output. Not to mention what resources QoL is probably also eating.

I'm with you there on e-shop and maybe more f2p releases. Those are pretty irrelevant when it comes to hardware numbers, though. That's my problem.
 
That's part of the point - now there are digital games for sale, and Knack is bundled. There is no perfect 1-to-1 comparison. But if we take software from the top 20 retail list, and compare it to past Sony systems, it's comparable if not better. It's not a perfect comparison, but it would be a stretch to say PS4 software is "performing badly."

Problem is that you're comparing a top 20 from Dec to a top 20 from Feb.

Lots of Vita games are missing in your comparison.

A better comparison is to wait for Dengeki report, they include total sw sales for the platform. Here how much sw the Vita actually sold in it's first week according to Dengeki:

[PSV] Weekly Software Units (ALL) - 270,000

PS4 total retail sw sales excluding Knack will definitely be lower than the vita overall.
 

Glass Joe

Member
3DS dropping 7K with 7 games on the chart compared to Vita dropping 100 with no games on the chart at all. Yes, Nintendo should be panic right now.

Software is where the profit is and is the whole point of the vidya game biz. Is Vita not having any games on the chart AT ALL somehow an enviable position to be in? Or are you just being sarcastic?
 

Somnid

Member
Considering 3DS has most of the bigger franchises in Japan except for mainline Final Fantasy hitting "saturation" at 15 million is worrisome by itself.

3DS is suffering due to smartphone penetration, no way to spin it.

No, actually that's part of the problem. 3DS is mostly built on existing franchises which has also made it hard to meaningfully expand gaming populations. That was the 3rd thing I mentioned.

We can't be missing something for the past 4 years. It's pretty safe to assume whatever output Nintendo currently has is their maximum output. Not to mention what resources QoL is probably also eating.

I'm with you there on e-shop and maybe more f2p releases. Those are pretty irrelevant when it comes to hardware numbers, though. That's my problem.

It's not a matter of the number of games but how they hit the market. ACNL did more than several teams combined could have. Having a large existing user base actually makes those successes a bit easier. This is also why eShop expansion is important because it's low cost but utilizes the big current userbase.
 
As much as I love my Vita, I don't think this month s (March)sales are going to beat last year 's. It would have really helped to have a high profile game in Feb, just to start some momentum.
 

jcm

Member
Retailers won't care.

Presumably what retailers care about is sell-through, and it appears to have been fine.

What's the problem? I wanted to give context to the quote without quoting the whole post.

Replace the bla bla bla with ...

It wasn't my intention.to imply anything.

Oh sorry, I don't have a problem with you truncating his post. I misunderstood what you were writing. I understand now that you were not criticizing him for omitting the raw numbers. You were criticizing him for omitting the titles outside the top 20, which is a legit criticism in my view.
 

batbeg

Member
That PS4 software makes me think the PS4 is going to stumble out of the gate.

Of course the PS4 software situation is a joke for Japan anyway, so what're you gonna do.

Are consoles just going to be fucked in Japan? :(
 

Hellraider

Member
It's not a matter of the number of games but how they hit the market. ACNL did more than several teams combined could have. Having a large existing user base actually makes those successes a bit easier. This is also why eShop expansion is important because it's low cost but utilizes the big current userbase.

Yeah, IntSys could create the next Minecraft or the next Pokemon tomorrow, sure but that's way too far fetched and not really plausible. The truth is there is nothing like ACNL on the horizon.

I'm also confused what you are trying to say on the second part of your post. I'm talking about ways to increase the hardware numbers what does userbase and eshop expansion have to do with it?
 

Kid Ying

Member
I doubt most people use their WiiUs anymore. They're either in a closet somewhere, or sold back to a second hand store.
I agree, but i think there's more to it. When you say, the people who bought the system a year ago, i think most of them moved on, specially because of that drought last year till Pikmin.

But in the last 3 months and a half, the wiiu moved more than half a million units. These people never experienced a huge drought and had a lot more games available than the people who bought the system on 2012 and the first half of 2013. These people had no reason to give up on the system yet, unless they bought only to play Mario 3D world.

Nintendo had a good holiday with the system, but it still didn't translate in more sales. I don't know if those other games are unwanted, since not only DK but Mario and Sonic bombed hard too, and in the middle of holidays to boot, or if Nintendo is not marketing well those games for its audience, but wiiu hardware sales is not translating to better software sales and that's pretty worrisome.
 
Terrible analysis. Actually it has little to do with phones and much more to do with hardware saturation. 3DS is a mature system than has sold a lot of units and released a lot of Nintendo stable franchises. Software is selling pretty well. If Nintendo wishes to continue growing 3DS hardware they have 3 options: upgrade model (not necessarily a successor, but even a 3DSi that gave people reasons to upgrade), lower price (more likely this means 2DS release), or release games that appeal to an audience they don't already have a large amount of.

When you talk about market saturation you talk that 3DS reached all the possible marketshare in the current conditions, which is hardly "there no way for 3DS to sell more hardware" because DS SOLD way more hardware before reaching market saturation. The market is there, Nintendo just lost it and that's a big problem, because he could losing more marketshare....

Neither new models are gonna fix that.

And no, software isn't selling so well....
 
Software is where the profit is and is the whole point of the vidya game biz. Is Vita not having any games on the chart AT ALL somehow an enviable position to be in? Or are you just being sarcastic?

I was pointing out to stead decline of 3DS compared to stabilizing Vita. 3DS is Nintendo's only money-making product in the market right now, and to see it has sharper decline than its competitor, which have much thinner libraries, is serious concern. If you think Nintendo is satisfying just from getting a cut from software sale while seeing their hardware dropping, you can't be more wrong.
 

Tripon

Member
I'm impressed by Yo-kai Watch. Level 5's cross synergy plan with the anime airing 6 months after the game release worked.

06./05. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch <RPG> (Level 5) {2013.07.11} (¥4.800) - 35.125 / 458.961 (+58%)
 

nooto

Neo Member
Why do you expect vita going down in the coming weeks? it has been steady for so many time with no major releases at all... I just ask in an informative way
 
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