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[Soriku]

After FF XIII (and sequels) fiasco and FF XV being an action rpg, I don't expect too much in terms of sales on Japan.

Are you implying FF XV being an action RPG will hurt sales? Why?

 

[javac]

I showed mine a little love over the weekend. I charged it up and played some Luigi's Mansion 2. I don't thoroughly despise the machine, I just feel it's a regressive piece of hardware and that its utter domination of Japan wasn't a positive thing for me as a handheld gamer.

(Edited out a misplaced apostrophe).

The problem is, it seems as if the market has spoken on dedicated handheld and it seems that both the 3DS and it's way of doing things came out the 'winner'. The vita will always have its games but the future of handheld systems outside of Nintendo seems bleak to say the least. Even if Nintendo have all that pie to themselves, the portion is a lot smaller. And with people within the handheld gaming circle itself giving it the cold shoulder, that pie will soon devour itself.

I think unless you want to shun portables outside of mobile (which I know you've already embraced and welcomed) whole, easing up on systems like the 3DS might be your only chance to have a little dedicated portable gaming system with actual support in the future. I think I and many others (including yourself?) wouldn't mind sacrificing the super high end handheld and accepting what we have in front of us at the moment and have developers continue to create the great games they've supported the system with and play them? We shouldn't accept shit given to us on a plate 'for the betterment of the gaming industry!' If you don't like the 3DS that's fine. Evolution will do its thing. Survival of the fittest etc. If handhelds become extinct, so be it. The population made their decision. But we do have the option available right now. No point in pointing out the lack of Nintendo titles in the pal charts or lack of Vita sales in the NPD discussions if we just sit back and don't support the systems and the inevitable happens.

Right now we have more than one choice with what we choose to play our portable games on, but down the line it may only be Nintendo and then...? A bit over dramatic sure. It's a gaming system not the plot to Children of Men but yeah

 

[SwiftDeath]

A bit over dramatic sure. It's a gaming system not the plot to Children of Men but yeah

Yeah but the plot of Children of Men has a potentially happy ending with hope for the future so I'm not sure you're on the right side of that comparison

 

[javac]

Yeah but the plot of Children of Men has a potentially happy ending with hope for the future so I'm not sure you're on the right side of that comparison

Shhh it's 6:40am, I haven't slept yet. No logic, only dreams now.

 

[Jamix012]

Are you implying FF XV being an action RPG will hurt sales? Why?

Making significant changes to the formula of any established franchise is bound to alienate some people. I don't know, I doubt FFXV will reach 1.5 million, I think it'll fall just short. I do expect KH3 to sell similar numbers too though.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Making significant changes to the formula of any established franchise is bound to alienate some people. I don't know, I doubt FFXV will reach 1.5 million, I think it'll fall just short. I do expect KH3 to sell similar numbers too though.

It is also bound to bring new people into the game

 

[SwiftDeath]

It is also bound to bring new people into the game

It has the potential to bring new people into the mix. You can change a game up enough and royally screw up what made the games desirable in the first place

 

[Jamix012]

It is also bound to bring new people into the game

True, but they're often outweighed by the people who leave. If the game is really, really good then sure, it could hit 1.5 million and beyond but I'm not sure I trust Square Enix to make a game that's universally praised anymore. FFXV will probably be a massive hit in the west for Square and will do good numbers in Japan, but I fully expect it to be down on XIII.

 

[Sandfox]

Making significant changes to the formula of any established franchise is bound to alienate some people. I don't know, I doubt FFXV will reach 1.5 million, I think it'll fall just short. I do expect KH3 to sell similar numbers too though.

I don't see KH being all that close to FF.

It is also bound to bring new people into the game

FF is already one of the biggest series in Japan so I really doubt it.

 

[duckroll]

Getting a million sales for a console game in Japan these days is a huge challenge. In it's 7 year plus lifespan, the PS3 has a grand total of -one- title which sold over a million in Japan. That's FFXIII and it was over 4 years ago. The most recent console million seller in Japan is New Super Mario Brothers U. It's just over a million, and took over a year of sales to get there. It's a Dec 2012 release, and crossed the million mark in 2014. Before that we're looking at 2010 releases - Wii Party and Super Mario Galaxy 2 on Wii. I guess if we really want to count every single budget re-release or expansion re-release for a given title, there are a couple which would also have crossed a million, but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to how games every big series on consoles could expect to sell over a million with a single release.

The Japanese console market is far from the old glory days, and it looks like it's going to stay that way and just drift further from large mainstream relevance as the years go by. Could FFXV sell over a million in Japan on the PS4? Maybe. Is it a certainty? Nope. Does it even look like it can do it easily? I don't think so.

 

[Soriku]

Making significant changes to the formula of any established franchise is bound to alienate some people. I don't know, I doubt FFXV will reach 1.5 million, I think it'll fall just short. I do expect KH3 to sell similar numbers too though.

They've already made big changes between FF X -> XII -> XIII. I'm not seeing why making it an action RPG would hurt. Some of the most popular games in Japan like KH, Tales, and Yakuza are action games.

 

[Chris1964]

Getting a million sales for a console game in Japan these days is a huge challenge. In it's 7 year plus lifespan, the PS3 has a grand total of -one- title which sold over a million in Japan. That's FFXIII and it was over 4 years ago. The most recent console million seller in Japan is New Super Mario Brothers U. It's just over a million, and took over a year of sales to get there. It's a Dec 2012 release, and crossed the million mark in 2014. Before that we're looking at 2010 releases - Wii Party and Super Mario Galaxy 2 on Wii. I guess if we really want to count every single budget re-release or expansion re-release for a given title, there are a couple which would also have crossed a million, but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to how games every big series on consoles could expect to sell over a million with a single release.

The Japanese console market is far from the old glory days, and it looks like it's going to stay that way and just drift further from large mainstream relevance as the years go by. Could FFXV sell over a million in Japan on the PS4? Maybe. Is it a certainty? Nope. Does it even look like it can do it easily? I don't think so.

NSMBU doesn't really count. Mario Kart 8 will be the first real million (and system) seller.

 

[Busaiku]

I think everyone's overestimating Mario Kart 8.

 

[Jamix012]

I think everyone's overestimating Mario Kart 8.

I'm not really sure what to make of MK8. It'll have easily the biggest debut of any Wii U game by far, but that doesn't mean a whole lot. Is it bundled in Japan? If it is, it should easily cross 1 mill.

 

[Chris1964]

I think everyone's overestimating Mario Kart 8.

It depends what you expect from it.

 

[theprodigy]

It depends what you expect from it.

....so, what do you expect from it

 

[SaintMadeOfPlaster]

Getting a million sales for a console game in Japan these days is a huge challenge. In it's 7 year plus lifespan, the PS3 has a grand total of -one- title which sold over a million in Japan. That's FFXIII and it was over 4 years ago. The most recent console million seller in Japan is New Super Mario Brothers U. It's just over a million, and took over a year of sales to get there. It's a Dec 2012 release, and crossed the million mark in 2014. Before that we're looking at 2010 releases - Wii Party and Super Mario Galaxy 2 on Wii. I guess if we really want to count every single budget re-release or expansion re-release for a given title, there are a couple which would also have crossed a million, but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to how games every big series on consoles could expect to sell over a million with a single release.

The Japanese console market is far from the old glory days, and it looks like it's going to stay that way and just drift further from large mainstream relevance as the years go by. Could FFXV sell over a million in Japan on the PS4? Maybe. Is it a certainty? Nope. Does it even look like it can do it easily? I don't think so.

This makes me sad...

If the Wii U were doing better, I'd expect MK8 to cross the mark, but that's seeming unlikely given the install base.

 

[Chris1964]

....so, what do you expect from it

1-2m

 

[Nirolak]

I'm not really sure what to make of MK8. It'll have easily the biggest debut of any Wii U game by far, but that doesn't mean a whole lot. Is it bundled in Japan? If it is, it should easily cross 1 mill.

I guess it kind of depends on the timeline too.

In 2016 or so it could end up crossing it if it doesn't in the near to mid term on the basis of being one of the only notable titles on a platform that has at least a few holiday seasons left.

 

[SaintMadeOfPlaster]

I guess it kind of depends on the timeline too.

In 2016 or so it could end up crossing it if it doesn't in the near to mid term on the basis of being one of the only notable titles on a platform that has at least a few holiday seasons left.

I wonder if Smash's success/failure would have an effect as well. I feel like people who are likely to pick up the console for Smash would buy MK as well, if they already have the console.

 

[Tomohawk]

Mario kart 8 should cross 1 million, but I don't think it has a chance of reaching 2 million.

 

[Yagami_Sama]

The effort that Level 5 put in promoting Youkai Watch had a superb effect. When the game was released back in July, 2013, stayed in top 10 briefly and now,
It is always in top 5, even got the first spot, this is amazing.

Wii U sales kept on the same level, which is expected, hence there are no new relevant games for the platform. I hope things will improve after Mario Kart 8 arrived.

 

[Nirolak]

I wonder if Smash's success/failure would have an effect as well. I feel like people who are likely to pick up the console for Smash would buy MK as well, if they already have the console.

Yeah there is a halo effect when selling people on the system.

 

[AniHawk]

Mario kart 8 should cross 1 million, but I don't think it has a chance of reaching 2 million.

it would be a small miracle if it hit 1 million. it would at some point need to be bundled with the system in order to cross that threshold.

 

[Nibel]

I want MK8 and FFXV to do well; two games I look forward to

Not sure if one million sales is realistic for any of them though

 

[shinra-bansho]

If it's bundled I can see it clearing 1M, maybe 2M. I doubt it gets near that excl./prior bundling.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

There doesn't need to be 4 million PS4 sold, in order to match FFXIII sales. What matters is that there are enough people who buy Final Fantasy games that bought a PS4. Install base does not equate sales, you only have to look at Wii for example of that. I perfectly undertand that it's impossible to have a game with 1:1 attach ratio and that at this rate it will take more than 2 years to even get to 2million, if the sales remain as apathetic as they are now.



I have the same gut feeling, we can both be very wrong and laugh all about these predictions in 2 years time in yet another Media Create thread.

Nice

I bet you'll be disappointed when FFXV launches.

Not saying the fan base was decimated, but I'm predicting the final LTD will be like 1.5 million across both consoles.

I bet I won't be. We will see in the distant future.

Getting a million sales for a console game in Japan these days is a huge challenge. In it's 7 year plus lifespan, the PS3 has a grand total of -one- title which sold over a million in Japan. That's FFXIII and it was over 4 years ago. The most recent console million seller in Japan is New Super Mario Brothers U. It's just over a million, and took over a year of sales to get there. It's a Dec 2012 release, and crossed the million mark in 2014. Before that we're looking at 2010 releases - Wii Party and Super Mario Galaxy 2 on Wii. I guess if we really want to count every single budget re-release or expansion re-release for a given title, there are a couple which would also have crossed a million, but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to how games every big series on consoles could expect to sell over a million with a single release.

The Japanese console market is far from the old glory days, and it looks like it's going to stay that way and just drift further from large mainstream relevance as the years go by. Could FFXV sell over a million in Japan on the PS4? Maybe. Is it a certainty? Nope. Does it even look like it can do it easily? I don't think so.

You don't think its a certainty that FFXv does 1 million+. Come on Duckroll.

 

[duckroll]

Nice



I bet I won't be. We will see in the distant future.



You don't think its a certainty that FFXv does 1 million+. Come on Duckroll.

It doesn't seem like you have much to add to these discussions other than letting your personal feelings about something get in the way and wanting to express that you "feel" that everything will be okay. If you disagree with an analysis of the market and trends, you're free to contribute an alternative take on it and provide supporting evidence on why you think something might be. If instead you simply want to dismiss reality because you don't like the picture it paints... then well... that's tough.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

It doesn't seem like you have much to add to these discussions other than letting your personal feelings about something get in the way and wanting to express that you "feel" that everything will be okay. If you disagree with an analysis of the market and trends, you're free to contribute an alternative take on it and provide supporting evidence on why you think something might be. If instead you simply want to dismiss reality because you don't like the picture it paints... then well... that's tough.

Well there isn't much to go on right now. PS4 is trailing behind PS3. Question remains on whether you think it will bounce back like the PS3 or not?

I don't see how you arrived to the conclusion that FFXV is not certain to sell a million. Do you think that by the time its out the PS4's install base would be so low (2015-2016) that it can't support a million seller. Assuming FFXV has the same tie ratio as FF13, then the PS4 would need an install base of 2.6 million. Or did you think that the FF brand is dying? Again I think the market clearly showed that its the 13 brand thats dying.

What market analysis? I'm just seeing you comment on the rarity of million sellers, with FF13 being the only one and nearly a 2 million seller. So how does that result in the conclusion that FFXV is not guaranteed to sell a million.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Well regardless of the software/hardware for traditional gaming dying in Japan, I just hope that the companies keep developing their games, you know, for the international audience. The more Japanese focused games will disappear but those with worldwide appeal should remain strong.

This is another reason I see Namco pushing their Tales of series in the West. They are aware of the declining Japanese market and are perhaps trying to cover it by trying to make it more well known worldwide. Final Fantasy brand is still strong worldwide, i believe, it just needs the right game at the right time. Same goes for Metal Gear Solid, which can still sell in millions. Can't say much about the popularity of them in Japan though.

 

[Metallix87]

Well there isn't much to go on right now. PS4 is trailing behind PS3. Question remains on whether you think it will bounce back like the PS3 or not?

I don't see how you arrived to the conclusion that FFXV is not certain to sell a million. Do you think that by the time its out the PS4's install base would be so low (2015-2016) that it can't support a million seller. Assuming FFXV has the same tie ratio as FF13, then the PS4 would need an install base of 2.6 million. Or did you think that the FF brand is dying? Again I think the market clearly showed that its the 13 brand thats dying.

What market analysis? I'm just seeing you comment on the rarity of million sellers, with FF13 being the only one and nearly a 2 million seller. So how does that result in the conclusion that FFXV is not guaranteed to sell a million.

The PS4 likely won't have the user base to guarantee a million seller by the time it launches. Also, I don't think you can just ignore the lack of interest in the XIII sequels, and their potential impact on the franchise as a whole.

 

[Parakeetman]

Well regardless of the software/hardware for traditional gaming dying in Japan, I just hope that the companies keep developing their games, you know, for the international audience. The more Japanese focused games will disappear but those with worldwide appeal should remain strong.

This is another reason I see Namco pushing their Tales of series in the West. They are aware of the declining Japanese market and are perhaps trying to cover it by trying to make it more well known worldwide. Final Fantasy brand is still strong worldwide, i believe, it just needs the right game at the right time. Same goes for Metal Gear Solid, which can still sell in millions. Can't say much about the popularity of them in Japan though.

Shit usually does not go well when a JP company tries to develop something specifically for the West... It isnt their strong point, which is why the shit goes south. And this isnt talking about an IP that was passed off to a Western developer to make.

Also dont try to use the Souls series as an example, as that shit basically is what From Software always has been doing in terms of design.

 

[AniHawk]

Well regardless of the software/hardware for traditional gaming dying in Japan, I just hope that the companies keep developing their games, you know, for the international audience. The more Japanese focused games will disappear but those with worldwide appeal should remain strong.

This is another reason I see Namco pushing their Tales of series in the West. They are aware of the declining Japanese market and are perhaps trying to cover it by trying to make it more well known worldwide. Final Fantasy brand is still strong worldwide, i believe, it just needs the right game at the right time. Same goes for Metal Gear Solid, which can still sell in millions. Can't say much about the popularity of them in Japan though.

the more japanese focused games disappearing altogether would signal a bigger problem. you can't just keep removing variety to cater to an increasingly narrow market.

 

[1st Course]

Dengeki Sales: Week 17, 2014 (Apr 21 - Apr 27)

01./00. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.24} - 148.163 / NEW
02./00. [3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: Curtain Call (Square Enix) {2014.04.24} - 77.561 / NEW
03./01. [3DS] Yokai Watch (LEVEL-5) {2013.07.11} - 41.394 / 768.868
04./05. [3DS] Mario Party: Island Tour (Nintendo) {2014.03.20} - 15.267 / 321.161
05./00. [WIU] NES Remix 1 +2 (Nintendo) {2014.04.24} - 11.893 / NEW
06./00. [PSV] BlazBlue: Chrono Phantasma (Arc System Works) {2014.04.24} - 11.595 / NEW
07./04. [PS3] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Jigoku-Hen (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.10} - 8.756 / 185.221
08./07. [PSV] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Jigoku-Hen (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.10} - 6.906 / 154.541
09./14. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (Capcom) {2013.09.14} - 6.444 / 3.355.197
10./03. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 1-2-3 - Naruhodo Selection  (Capcom) {2014.04.17} - 6.333 / 29.240
11./08. [3DS] Style Savvy: Trendsetters - Tokimeki Up! (Nintendo) {2014.04.17} - 5.967 / 18.552
12./00. [PS3] Monster Hunter Frontier GG Premium Package (Capcom) {2014.04.23} - 5.300 / NEW
13./10. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zero (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 5.272 / 212.499
14./13. [3DS] Kirby Triple Deluxe star (Nintendo) {2014.01.11} - 5.078 / 546.816
15./12. [3DS] Pazudora Z (Gung Ho Online Entertainment) {2013.12.12} - 5.006 / 1.420.586
16./11. [PS3] Sengoku Musou 4 (Tecmo Koei Games) {2014.03.20} - 4.678 / 216.846
17./00. [PS3] If You Thought It Was Harem Paradise, It Was Yandere Hell (Nippon Ichi Software) {2014.04.24} - 4.643 / NEW
18./02. [PS4] Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Real Reborn (Square Enix) {2014.04.14} - 4.480 / 32.700
19./00. [PSP] Chronostacia (Idea Factory) {2014.04.24} - 4.444 / NEW
20./00. [PSP] Kuroyukihime: Snow Black (QuinRose) {2014.04.24} - 4.320 / NEW
21./00. [3DS] MapleStory: The Girl's Fate (Nexon) {2014.04.24} - 4.240 / NEW
22./00. [PS3] MuvLuv: Photon Flowers (5pb.) {2014.04.24} - 4.236 / NEW
23./00. [PSV] I Want to Say to my Older Brother That I'm His Younger Sister Now! (GN Software) {2014.04.24} - 3.784 / NEW
24./20. [3DS] Fossil Fighters: Infinite Gear (Nintendo) {2014.02.27} - 3.761 / 154.110
25./21. [WIU] Wii Party U (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} - 3.647 / 681.367
26./00. [360] Monster Hunter Frontier GG Premium Package (Capcom) {2014.04.23} - 3.586 / NEW
27./17. [PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 2014 (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 3.467 / 103.094
28./00. [PS3] 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil (Electronic Arts) {2014.04.24} - 3.327 / NEW
29./27. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} - 3.274 / 1.096.686
30./09. [3DS] Detective Conan Phantom Rhapsody (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.17} - 3.194 / 11.847
31./23. [3DS] Harvest Moon: Linking the New World (Marvelous AQL) {2014.02.27} - 3.089 / 208.553
32./15. [WIU] JUST DANCE (R) Wii U (Nintendo) {2014.04.03} - 3.070 / 33.388
33./19. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Iru to Ruka no Fushigi na Fushigi na Kagi (Square Enix) {2014.02.06} - 3.056 / 761.595
34./33. [3DS] Animal Crossing Tobidase (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} - 3.017 / 3.633.399
35./18. [3DS] Crayon Shin-Chan: Arashi o Yobu Kasukabe Eiga Stars! (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.10} - 2.867 / 20.985
36./16. [PS3] J Stars Victory Versus (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.03.19} - 2.828 / 170.511
37./22. [3DS] Hero bank (SEGA) {2014.03.20} - 2.778 / 37.953
38./25. [PSV] J Stars Victory Versus (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.03.19} - 2.650 / 141.742
39./37. [3DS] Pokemon X (Pokemon) {2013.10.12} - 2.629 / 2.167.824
40./32. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V (Rockstar Games) {2013.10.10} - 2.567 / 672.590
41./34. [3DS] Attack on Titan: The Last Wings of Mankind (Spike CHUNSOFT) {2013.12.05} - 2.439 / 274.049
42./24. [PSV] Hatsune Miku-Project DIVA-F 2nd (SEGA) {2014.03.27} - 2.406 / 124.132
43./39. [WIU] Super Mario 3D World (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} - 2.368 / 512.545
44./30. [PS3] Dark Souls 2 (From Software) {2014.03.13} - 2.300 / 328.908
45./40. [3DS] Pokemon Y (Pokemon) {2013.10.12} - 2.265 / 1.957.894
46./26. [PSV] Sengoku Musou 4 (Tecmo Koei Games) {2014.03.20} - 2.256 / 78.651
47./31. [PSP] Pro Baseball Spirits 2014 (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 2.079 / 59.001
48./35. [PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zero (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 2.044 / 122.411
49./00. [3DS] Guruguru Tamagotchi! (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.24} - 2.029 / NEW
50./44. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} - 2.006 / 2.237.904

Top 50

3DS 21
PS3 11
PSV 7
WIU 5
PSP 3
PS4 2
X360 1

TOP3/PLATFORM

[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: Curtain Call (Square Enix) {2014.04.24} - 77.561 / NEW
[3DS] Yokai Watch (LEVEL-5) {2013.07.11} - 41.394 / 768.868
[3DS] Mario Party: Island Tour (Nintendo) {2014.03.20} - 15.267 / 321.161

[PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.24} - 148.163 / NEW
[PSV] BlazBlue: Chrono Phantasma (Arc System Works) {2014.04.24} - 11.595 / NEW
[PSV] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Jigoku-Hen (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.10} - 6.906 / 154.541

[PS3] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Jigoku-Hen (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.10} - 8.756 / 185.221
[PS3] Monster Hunter Frontier GG Premium Package (Capcom) {2014.04.23} - 5.300 / NEW
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zero (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 5.272 / 212.499

[PS4] Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Real Reborn (Square Enix) {2014.04.14} - 4.480 / 32.700
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zero (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 2.044 / 122.411
[PS4] Battlefield 4 (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} - 1.644 / 72.211

[WIU] NES Remix 1 +2 (Nintendo) {2014.04.24} - 11.893 / NEW
[WIU] Wii Party U (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} - 3.647 / 681.367
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} - 3.274 / 1.096.686

[360] Monster Hunter Frontier GG Premium Package (Capcom) {2014.04.23} - 3.586 / NEW
[360] Ga-Sen. Love Plus Pengo! (Triangle Service) {2014.04.24} - 457 / NEW
[360] 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil (Electronic Arts) {2014.04.24} - 314 / NEW

ALL SOFTWARE

------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week (%) |  FY 2014  | FY (%)  |
------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS   | 238.191   | 39.10%   | 802.202   | 35.60%  |
| Vita  | 204.486   | 33.60%   | 542.810   | 24.10%  |
| PS3   | 85.376    | 14.00%   | 550.972   | 24.40%  |
| Wii U | 32.937    | 5.40%    | 126.864   | 5.60%   |
| PSP   | 26.988    | 4.40%    | 109.139   | 4.80%   |
| PS4   | 14.488    | 2.40%    | 96.386    | 4.30%   |
| X360  | 6.461     | 1.10%    | 26.517    | 1.20%   |
------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 608.927   | 100.00%  | 2.254.890 | 100.00% |
------------------------------------------------------

HARDWARE

----------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week (%) | FY 2014 | FY (%)  |
----------------------------------------------------
| 3DS   | 32.947    | 42.00%   | 105.410 | 36.60%  |
| Vita  | 22.343    | 28.50%   | 75.074  | 26.00%  |
| PS4   | 10.516    | 13.40%   | 47.613  | 16.50%  |
| PS3   | 6.040     | 7.70%    | 29.183  | 10.10%  |
| Wii U | 4.600     | 5.90%    | 21.407  | 7.40%   |
| PSP   | 1.905     | 2.40%    | 8.638   | 3.00%   |
| X360  | 164       | 0.20%    | 898     | 0.30%   |
----------------------------------------------------
| Total | 78.515    | 100.00%  | 288.223 | 100.00% |
----------------------------------------------------

Dengeki Sales: Week 16, 2014 (Apr 14 - Apr 20)

 

[manueldelalas]

The way I see it, FFXV is a sure million seller and I don't know why are we discussing this. What should be discussed is if it will reach 1.5 million (I think it will) or even 2 million (I think it won't).

PS4 sales are worrying, and the lack of announced japanese games for it is very bad for the console. WiiU will have a "good" year with Smash and MK8, but I fear it will become absolutely irrelevant after that; there is not a single third party game announced for it we should care about.

 

[Metallix87]

The way I see it, FFXV is a sure million seller and I don't know why are we discussing this. What should be discussed is if it will reach 1.5 million (I think it will) or even 2 million (I think it won't).

Why, exactly?

 

[Mory Dunz]

The PS4 likely won't have the user base to guarantee a million seller by the time it launches. Also, I don't think you can just ignore the lack of interest in the XIII sequels, and their potential impact on the franchise as a whole.

To be fair, FFXHD did better than Lightning returns right? And it's technically not a new game.

I think if FFXV doesn't stink, it can get 1 million.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Shit usually does not go well when a JP company tries to develop something specifically for the West... It isnt their strong point, which is why the shit goes south. And this isnt talking about an IP that was passed off to a Western developer to make.

Also dont try to use the Souls series as an example, as that shit basically is what From Software always has been doing in terms of design.

I wasn't specifically talking about them trying to cater to the taste of the western audience. If LR vs FF X HD proved anything, it was that games can still sell well if they stick to their original design and not change it for western audience. Bravely Default is another example here.

The only thing i was talking about here was that if somehow the sales in Japan end up being disaster, and just not as strong as some of the other markets, the games can still keep getting released on the basis of their sales worldwide. Now it is another topic entirely if the developers took this as a sign to design their games with western market in mind. I mean if their games are selling well as they are, they shouldn't try to mess with the design. I don't want this to happen.

the more japanese focused games disappearing altogether would signal a bigger problem. you can't just keep removing variety to cater to an increasingly narrow market.

I don't really want this but i can't help but see this happening. Even the handheld market is not doing well, consoles are an entirely different story. I have pretty much given up any hope of seeing a rebound in sales for traditional gaming in Japan.

You know it is a dire situation overall when PS4 sales cross stream with PS3 despite PS4 having advantage with its price. I never expected this at all. The system sellers for PS4 won't arrive until what, 2015/2016? I don't have any idea of any title that can move more PS4s in Japan this year.

Edit: Anyone have any idea of the userbase of PS3 at time of FF XIII and MGS 4 release?

 

[1st Course]

[360] Ga-Sen. Love Plus Pengo! (Triangle Service) {2014.04.24} - 457 / NEW

This game looks pretty awesome. Apparently is a collection of arcade-like games

 

[Metallix87]

To be fair, FFXHD did better than Lightning returns right? And it's technically not a new game.

I think if FFXV doesn't stink, it can get 1 million.

The fact that it wasn't a new game may have worked in it's favor. FFX was a very popular game, after all.

 

[Canis lupus]

Was SAO announced for Europe? They're crazy if they won't bring it over to a big anime market.

It more than likely broke 150k (or 160 if we follow the "10% rule") since it got a spotlight on the Vita Store twice - and actually got an exclusive preorder stuff.

S>Y Shirt for 15,000 yen. lololololol

Whats that rule?

 

[TheChaos0]

Was SAO announced for Europe? They're crazy if they won't bring it over to a big anime market.

Not yet, I sure hope they do.

 

[Rolf NB]

The fact that it wasn't a new game may have worked in it's favor. FFX was a very popular game, after all.

It still kind of proves that there is a market for decent RPGs, and that FF as a brand isn't dead either.

 

[Magicpaint]

Late observations and all but: SAO and T:FF did about what I expected for both. Pretty decent, good even for SAO. Hardware sales still in the gutter everywhere but ah well, Golden Week should (hopefully) give off decent figures next week.

 

[Metallix87]

It still kind of proves that there is a market for decent RPGs, and that FF as a brand isn't dead either.

Who argued the former? As for the latter, that is arguable, depending on what you mean by "dead".

 

[Celine]

Making significant changes to the formula of any established franchise is bound to alienate some people. I don't know, I doubt FFXV will reach 1.5 million, I think it'll fall just short. I do expect KH3 to sell similar numbers too though.

I'm not sure, while a strong brand, KH is weaker than FF.

 

[duckroll]

Well there isn't much to go on right now. PS4 is trailing behind PS3. Question remains on whether you think it will bounce back like the PS3 or not?

I don't see how you arrived to the conclusion that FFXV is not certain to sell a million. Do you think that by the time its out the PS4's install base would be so low (2015-2016) that it can't support a million seller. Assuming FFXV has the same tie ratio as FF13, then the PS4 would need an install base of 2.6 million. Or did you think that the FF brand is dying? Again I think the market clearly showed that its the 13 brand thats dying.

What market analysis? I'm just seeing you comment on the rarity of million sellers, with FF13 being the only one and nearly a 2 million seller. So how does that result in the conclusion that FFXV is not guaranteed to sell a million.

When even Mario struggles to sell a million on consoles these days, I think it would be foolish to assume that any big console only title a couple of years down the road is guaranteed to sell a million in Japan. The ceiling for consoles is shrinking, not growing.

Stuff like installed base and brand strength are secondary to the biggest concern for Japanese console software - people are playing games differently now and those interested in a dedicated console experience where you play games on the TV have drastically reduced over the years.

It's not what people who love Japanese console games want to hear, but that's what's going on. It doesn't look like the situation will turn around either, since the longer this goes on for, the more we'll see children grow up in an environment where it's completely normal to not be playing games on consoles. Most developers can still get by with the sales they get though, especially when some series are seeing international sales increasing, but the days where being a big series means you are guaranteed a million sales in Japan are over. It's not that it's impossible, it's just that it should no longer be assumed.

 

[Rolf NB]

Who argued the former? As for the latter, that is arguable, depending on what you mean by "dead".

I thought we were discussing potential declining market prospects for FF?
About the "dead" thing, the ever-downward trajectory from FF XIII to its second sequel could have meant that the audience has been poisoned to the point that they would reject the brand altogether. That doesn't seem to be the case. With non-Lightning games still garnering stable sales, we cannot explain FF XIII sales by full-market or FF-in-general-market properties IMO. We should look to the quality of the games instead to explain what happened to LR.

I may be mistaken, but wasn't LR actually a good game? I thought I had heard that it was a major improvement from previoustitles.

I only played the demo (which is like an hour of the game) and thought it was mostly insufferable pandering to certain fanbases that may not even exist outside of SE's own offices.
Too much focus on lore, too little focus on making the gameplay satisfying. The reduction to one character removes tactical combat elements almost entirely -- and to be fair, FF XIII / XIII-2 weren't really "tactical" in an absolute sense, but definitely in comparison.
I checked my initial impressions against the OT, and didn't really find much to say otherwise. General sentiment is that the plot is pretty tropey, it's a lot of character wank, and the combat system doesn't expand much beyond the demo limitations either.

Not sure about Japanese press reception, but it's 66 on Metacritic, which I read as complete rejection.

 

[TheChaos0]

The fact that it wasn't a new game may have worked in it's favor. FFX was a very popular game, after all.

So a good FF game will still sells good? FFXIII brand became kinda toxic, but I'm not convinced that it affects the overall brand that much. It certainly had an effect.

I also don't think that FFXV being an action RPG of sorts will have effect on the sales. I think by now FF fans are used to each game being different from the last. XIII was vastly different from XII.

 

[Metallix87]

I thought we were discussing potential declining market prospects for FF?
About the "dead" thing, the ever-downward trajectory from FF XIII to its second sequel could have meant that the audience has been poisoned to the point that they would reject the brand altogether. That doesn't seem to be the case. With non-Lightning games still garnering stable sales, we cannot explain FF XIII sales by full-market or FF-in-general-market properties IMO. We should look to the quality of the games instead to explain what happened to LR.

I may be mistaken, but wasn't LR actually a good game? I thought I had heard that it was a major improvement from previous titles.

Either way, I don't think a port of a well regarded game doing well is indicative of the future of the series.