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[GoofsterStud]

ugh, not really.

MS's marketing is different, the system is still the same (Kinect should have been optional from the get-go)

The system is still built around Kinect... It has a proprietary audio chip specifically for latency with Kinect. Even if it's less powerful for audio output and requires more CPU usage as a result. They really went balls deep with Kinect.

 

[Tookay]

ugh, not really.

MS's marketing is different, the system is still the same (Kinect should have been optional from the get-go)

Your parenthetical sorta disproves your point.

 

[rokkerkory]

It was a great time with 360 but they didn't make money too (if they made it was really small margin)... that is what we are saying.

And I am saying they are still 60% through their roadmap. X1 may fail miserably or be successful enough still where they get next-gen and to true profitability by year 20.

 

[Triggerhappytel]

The very first television commercial for the XBone featured zero games (unless you count a very, very small icon on the right side of the television screen for a millisecond.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmD0vPOd5Rk

It's quite amazing watching that a year later. Did they really think these people would buy the 'Bone in order to have parties and watch football and Skype through their TV?

 

[Unmoses]

I don't have a problem with the one box idea they purported- it's nice in many ways actually.. While I have a logitech harmony in every room of my house I barely use it now with the X1 in my master entertainment area- TV (sports mainly now), Netflix, Prime, Gaming all in one.. it's pretty nice.. My family isn't as tablet oriented (wife and I and kids have them, but they aren't really integrated to the TV watching social aspect of the living room as from what I've been seeing spouted through this thread.

From some of my apple buddies, they love their apple tv's now so I can see where the "tablet" interacts with the tv and they cut the cords in that regard..

But truthfully, the 1 has been pretty darned solid in that regard. In fact, anecdotally around my office for people who haven't migrated yet to this gen they all know interestingly enough without provocation from the hardcore that there is a power difference, they feel it's not great and they see the difference being the entertainment integration..

It's an interesting proposition. Back to this thread- I have no what the raw numbers mean, but i have to think that for the most part with the architectures being relatively equal (compared to last gen) it's going to boil down to featureset and games.

But to say that one isn't sure why they are in the console business, followed by "one box in the room" followed by "fragmented living room" doesn't make sense, at least in my living room. The X1 is exactly where I want it to be in that regard

 

[Neuromancer]

I'm guessing you never saw their presser at E3 2013.

"We purposefully did not target the highest end graphics. We targeted it more as a broad entertainment play."

Source: video at http://www.engadget.com/2013/05/21/building-xbox-one-an-inside-look/

I would argue that gaming was, at best, 1/3 of the original Xbox One vision, alongside original TV programming, TV pass through, Kinect voice commands, snap, apps, water coolers and NFL.

 

[Tookay]

I don't have a problem with the one box idea they purported- it's nice in many ways actually.. While I have a logitech harmony in every room of my house I barely use it now with the X1 in my master entertainment area- TV (sports mainly now), Netflix, Prime, Gaming all in one.. it's pretty nice.. My family isn't as tablet oriented (wife and I and kids have them, but they aren't really integrated to the TV watching social aspect of the living room as from what I've been seeing spouted through this thread.

From some of my apple buddies, they love their apple tv's now so I can see where the "tablet" interacts with the tv and they cut the cords in that regard..

But truthfully, the 1 has been pretty darned solid in that regard. In fact, anecdotally around my office for people who haven't migrated yet to this gen they all know interestingly enough without provocation from the hardcore that there is a power difference, they feel it's not great and they see the difference being the entertainment integration..

It's an interesting proposition. Back to this thread- I have no what the raw numbers mean, but i have to think that for the most part with the architectures being relatively equal (compared to last gen) it's going to boil down to featureset and games.

But to say that one isn't sure why they are in the console business, followed by "one box in the room" followed by "fragmented living room" doesn't make sense, at least in my living room. The X1 is exactly where I want it to be in that regard

I think you're misinterpreting the whole discussion. People aren't saying "tablets interact with the TV, therefore defeating the point of XBO."

They're saying that the idea of the "TV being the center of the living room" is an outdated notion, when everybody has their own spheres of entertainment, because the kids can be on their phones, the wife can be on her tablet, etc.

If everybody has their separate world for entertainment, this defeats the need for an all-in-one box to control it. We don't need to "share" the same thing anymore (the TV).

 

[Punkster_NY]

Disappearing Act: Xbox Sales Plummet While Microsoft's Other Devices Continue To Struggle

 

[QaaQer]

And I am saying they are still 60% through their roadmap. X1 may fail miserably or be successful enough still where they get next-gen and to true profitability by year 20.

Is the road-map online somewhere? I'm curious to see what the 1999 brain-trust at Microsoft thought 2019 was going to look like, and what kind of tv box would dominate.

[are my tenses right?]

 

[TrafalgarLaw]

Disappearing Act: Xbox Sales Plummet While Microsoft's Other Devices Continue To Struggle

In the prior quarter, Microsoft reported 2 million console sales of which 1.2 million were the Xbox One. That means the company was moving about 800,000 Xbox 360s just three months ago.

If we assume that the 360 is selling similarly at this point, then this quarter’s 1.1 million consoles likely consisted of just 300,000 Xbox Ones. To get a sense of how terrible that is, it’s as bad as Nintendo’s Wii U results for the quarter that ended in May.

An estimated 300k in 3 months? Ouch. Dire is an understatement...

 

[jcm]

Paul Allen`s wealth manager said Spin Out not Spin Off which does mean they still own the Xbox.

Like I said it doesn't matter because my point was that there is not "a lot" of investor pressure. Two ambiguous statements and that is it.

Spin off and spin out mean the same thing: a company is divesting itself of a business unit. You can choose to believe the pressure is meaningful, or not. The fact is, there is some public pressure from major investors. And it's coming from the firm who forced Ballmer to resign, and now has a seat on the board. And from a co-founder who still owns a multi-billion dollar stake in the company.

Edit: Here's the actual quote from Allen's guy:
“The search business and even Xbox, which has been a very successful product, are detracting from that. We would want them to focus on their best competencies,” he said.

“My view is there are some parts of that operation they should probably spin out, get rid of, to focus on the enterprise and focus on the cloud.”

 

[rokkerkory]

Is the road-map online somewhere? I'm curious to see what the 1999 brain-trust at Microsoft thought 2019 was going to look like, and what kind of tv box would dominate.

[are my tenses right?]

I believe I saw that roadmap / vision back in 2006/7 somewhere in an interview or leaked doc IIRC. Sorry I don't have that handy.

 

[serversurfer]

If anything, this should tell anyone who intends to buy an Xbone to wait. It will become cheaper, soon. How much depends on Microsoft's level of desperation, so the longer you wait, the better.

Do we think MS will tell us when XBone goes on clearance, or will they just wait until they've sold what they ordered, then say, "Yeah, we don't make that anymore"? I know they abandoned Kin with little fanfare. What happened when Zune got EOL'd?

Yes, Microsoft's PS3 was an amazing product.

Indeed. It almost outsold Sony's PS3!!

 

[EGM1966]

I don't have a problem with the one box idea they purported- it's nice in many ways actually.. While I have a logitech harmony in every room of my house I barely use it now with the X1 in my master entertainment area- TV (sports mainly now), Netflix, Prime, Gaming all in one.. it's pretty nice.. My family isn't as tablet oriented (wife and I and kids have them, but they aren't really integrated to the TV watching social aspect of the living room as from what I've been seeing spouted through this thread.

From some of my apple buddies, they love their apple tv's now so I can see where the "tablet" interacts with the tv and they cut the cords in that regard..

But truthfully, the 1 has been pretty darned solid in that regard. In fact, anecdotally around my office for people who haven't migrated yet to this gen they all know interestingly enough without provocation from the hardcore that there is a power difference, they feel it's not great and they see the difference being the entertainment integration..

It's an interesting proposition. Back to this thread- I have no what the raw numbers mean, but i have to think that for the most part with the architectures being relatively equal (compared to last gen) it's going to boil down to featureset and games.

But to say that one isn't sure why they are in the console business, followed by "one box in the room" followed by "fragmented living room" doesn't make sense, at least in my living room. The X1 is exactly where I want it to be in that regard

The issue for MS - and the discussion point is whether you (given your post) represent a minority or majority customer for their value prop.

The evidence strongly suggests the former (yup you're an official minority group member) whereas I and my disconnected, multiple devices no single focal point family probably represent the majority.

The figures make it clear that the single device as a focal point attached to a central TV vision the XB1 launched with just isn't connecting with a majority of consumers.

It really does look rather outdated now I believe - heck just having multiple TVs as many homes now have makes the idea of a focal point redundant.

My view is the single focal point is your internet connection not a box hooked up to your TV with regards to most homes today.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I was talking about it being dated when the console was still unannounced, but back then it was rumoured to be integrated with a cable box, which I thought might be a saving grace in the USA.

An estimated 300k in 4 months? Ouch. Dire is an understatement...

3 months. There's nothing to show his assumption is correct though, it would require adding another 800k 360s in the channel when I thought their sales were meant to have dropped off a cliff.
I don't know but I think the main factor in their Xbone shipments this quarter would be how well they can persuade retail that the kinectless box would be a big hit, maybe that's why they announced it so early.

 

[Cragvis]

The very first television commercial for the XBone featured zero games (unless you count a very, very small icon on the right side of the television screen for a millisecond.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmD0vPOd5Rk

football is a game, is it not?

Also the guy with the girl..and skype? He is a playa playa...and what does a playa play? The game.

Spoiler

Surely I jest of course

 

[s3ltzer]

The system is still built around Kinect... It has a proprietary audio chip specifically for latency with Kinect. Even if it's less powerful for audio output and requires more CPU usage as a result. They really went balls deep with Kinect.

Damn, well, I guess there goes my silver-lining.

 

[Yoda]

I never understood why MS entered in console business at all.

+ They didn't need.
+ The segment never give the profit MS wants/is used to.
+ Gaming didn't fit with the core MS business.

I can put others points but I never understood what MS wanted with Xbox.

PS. They didn't make a bad job... the opposite they did really great with 360... I just didn't understand what they wanted with the gaming market.

You have to remember the industry buz back in the middle of the last decade. Most of the industry sages were predicting the death of desktops/laptops in the consumer market. At the time cellphones were just that, cellphones, not smart phones. The multimedia capabilities of consoles was on full display with the PS2 and Microsoft figured there was a market beyond the core gaming audience for these devices. This idea did see true for the beginning of the last gen with the run-away success of... the console with the least multimedia capabilities. The market Microsoft was envisioning in the "post-PC world" did exist, it simply wasn't a living-room device.

Have you seen profits MS usually makes from their other businesses? Even during prime X360 years entertainment division was only tiny tiny part of the profits. Then you have of course the original Xbox that costed them something like 6 billion to just get foot in the market. They would have probably profited more had they directed those monies to elsewhere.

This is due to during it's prime it was still suffering from the RRoD fiasco. Even without RRoD it wouldn't come close to their enterprise products, but there is an argument to be made about monopolistic practices there.

 

[Nokterian]

The very first television commercial for the XBone featured zero games (unless you count a very, very small icon on the right side of the television screen for a millisecond.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmD0vPOd5Rk

Bwhaha oh man that commercial. SPORTS SPORTS SPORTS...TV TV TV. Yeah i mean in Europe we do care about NFL right? naaah..this is one of those reasons i stepped away from Xbox and still holding it up even after all of those 180's.

 

[BronsonLee]

football is a game, is it not?

Also the guy with the girl..and skype? He is a playa playa...and what does a playa play? The game.

Did someone say THE GAME

 

[Fatal Error]

300K? it's too low.

if we consider the past three months for US alone, XB ONE sold 388k, but this may be remaining units from previous stocks.

so if we consider the pattern of 360's sales for the last three quarters, we find that it had an average 35% drop of shipments, so we can assume it has the same drop this quarter and we find that 360s shipped about 650k, lets say 600k-650k, so I think the XB One shipped around 450k-500k units in this quarter. but I'm just guessing.

 

[SwiftDeath]

3 months. There's nothing to show his assumption is correct though, it would require adding another 800k 360s in the channel when I thought their sales were meant to have dropped off a cliff.
I don't know but I think the main factor in their Xbone shipments this quarter would be how well they can persuade retail that the kinectless box would be a big hit, maybe that's why they announced it so early.

300K? it's too low.

if we consider the past three months for US alone, XB ONE sold 388k, but this may be remaining units from previous stocks.

so if we consider the pattern of 360's sales for the last three quarters, we find that it had an average 35% drop of shipments, so we can assume it has the same drop this quarter and we find that 360s shipped about 650k, lets say 600k-650k, so I think the XB One shipped around 450k-500k units in this quarter. but I'm just guessing.

Yeah reasonable trends would suggest 360 shipped around 622k to 637k thus XB1 likely shipped 463k to 478k

That forbes article author contributor is not taking the most reasonable approach with the historical data

 

[eddfromtheriver]

An estimated 300k in 3 months? Ouch. Dire is an understatement...

Let's wait 'till the holidays... i won't count them out just yet.

 

[Neuromancer]

The very first television commercial for the XBone featured zero games (unless you count a very, very small icon on the right side of the television screen for a millisecond.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmD0vPOd5Rk

I get douche chills from this commercial every time I watch it.

 

[Mermandala]

But truthfully, the 1 has been pretty darned solid in that regard. In fact, anecdotally around my office for people who haven't migrated yet to this gen they all know interestingly enough without provocation from the hardcore that there is a power difference, they feel it's not great and they see the difference being the entertainment integration..

You were doing okay but that paragraph just reads as completely made up, in that regard...

 

[serversurfer]

Yeah reasonable trends would suggest 360 shipped around 622k to 637k thus XB1 likely shipped 463k to 478k

That forbes article author contributor is not taking the most reasonable approach with the historical data

Based on NPD, XB360 sales are down ~50% for Q4 YOY. If shipments scaled similarly, there could've been as few as 500K 360s and as many as 600K Bones. Might actually be safest to assume 550K of each shipped. /shrug

 

[cakely]

football is a game, is it not?

Also the guy with the girl..and skype? He is a playa playa...and what does a playa play? The game.

Spoiler

Surely I jest of course

I picture your avatar saying this and it just works.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Based on NPD, XB360 sales are down ~50% for Q4 YOY. If shipments scaled similarly, there could've been as few as 500K 360s and as many as 600K Bones. Might actually be safest to assume 550K of each shipped. /shrug

And that's fine. I prefer based on historical shipping data but whatever floats your boat.

I think we can both agree that simply using Q3 2014 shipping numbers as a 1:1 estimate for Q4 2014 shipping numbers is a bit daft though

 

[Kayant]

The very first television commercial for the XBone featured zero games (unless you count a very, very small icon on the right side of the television screen for a millisecond.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmD0vPOd5Rk

That $400 million

 

[freefornow]

This time the hardware inside the PS4 was smartly designed around price drops. The components will get cheaper. The PS3 can't even manage the price drops that will eventually be possible on PS4. GDDR5 and regular ass processors is going to ensure that. So in the end, I think they will sell at least as many PS4's as they've sold PS3's. The PS3 may never reach the price point needed for the cheap gamer to jump in just because it's nearly impossible for them to cut cost on the components of Cell.

But a $200 PS4? That's possible in a few years.

If they continue to dominate as they have been, greed will dictate the price. Sure there will be small adjustments in price, but Sony does have a similar goal to MS when it comes to making money.

 

[Tobor]

That $400 million

The NFL totally swindled Microsoft on that deal. It's really amazing.

 

[ProfessorMoran]

If they continue to dominate as they have been, greed will dictate the price. Sure there will be small adjustments in price, but Sony does have a similar goal to MS when it comes to making money.

It will depend on how much software they can shift on this platform, the cheaper the console becomes, the more they can grow the userbase and the more software they can sell and reap the royalties, I'm sure they have bean counters doing that math.

 

[BigDug13]

If they continue to dominate as they have been, greed will dictate the price. Sure there will be small adjustments in price, but Sony does have a similar goal to MS when it comes to making money.

Sure, but a lack of install base means lower sales of their first party games as well as the cut they get from third party sales and PS+. If sales slow and Sony doesn't answer back with a price drop, it hurts the other revenue streams that they rely on by having a large number of systems in the wild. Does it really pay to be greedy on console price which slows sales when they could remain greedy on their other revenue producing things?

 

[Principate]

Sure, but a lack of install base means lower sales of their first party games as well as the cut they get from third party sales and PS+. If sales slow and Sony doesn't answer back with a price drop, it hurts the other revenue streams that they rely on by having a large number of systems in the wild. Does it really pay to be greedy on console price which slows sales when they could remain greedy on their other revenue producing things?

It depends for all it's 80 million install base the PS3 still managed to completely sink any profits accrued from the PS1 and PS2. I imagine significant profits on hardware are worth it if you can get away with it (as in still remain a decent and consistent selling rate.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

That $400 million

Welp, that was a waste...

Back to the sales discussion, even if we were to give an optimistic "estimate" of how much the X1 sold in Q4 2014 (let's say, 800k X1 and 300k 360), the X1 is still tracking way behind its predecessor.

 

[ProfessorMoran]

Sure, but a lack of install base means lower sales of their first party games as well as the cut they get from third party sales and PS+. If sales slow and Sony doesn't answer back with a price drop, it hurts the other revenue streams that they rely on by having a large number of systems in the wild. Does it really pay to be greedy on console price which slows sales when they could remain greedy on their other revenue producing things?

With everything from PS+ to music/video unlimited to third party royalties, if they cut the price $100 they could probably make it back pretty quickly.

 

[BigDug13]

It depends for all it's 80 million install base the PS3 still managed to completely sink any profits accrued from the PS1 and PS2. I imagine significant profits on hardware are worth it if you can get away with it (as in still remain a decent and consistent selling rate.

That's a bit different. They lost $300 per $499 console sold and $250 for every $599 console sold. The PS3 was unprecedented losses per unit sold, never before seen and probably will never be seen again. Willingness to take a bath in one division to help ensure victory in the high def format war.

 

[quetz67]

If they continue to dominate as they have been, greed will dictate the price. Sure there will be small adjustments in price, but Sony does have a similar goal to MS when it comes to making money.

When MS drops the price to $299 ($399 with Kinect) this holiday season Sony need to react...and they will.

 

[Speedy Blue Dude]

The very first television commercial for the XBone featured zero games (unless you count a very, very small icon on the right side of the television screen for a millisecond.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmD0vPOd5Rk

Because there's no need to advertise the fact that it plays games. It's the new fucking Xbox. Xbox. A gaming device. It's obvious the thing plays games, they wanted to advertise it based on the new features it had that are unique to only it. Watching TV and video Skype while multitasking an app, plus efficient voice navigation.

Do you have the same complaint when iPhone commercial don't spend the entire commercial showcasing the ability to talk? It's a fucking phone of course it can call. What else can it do?

 

[shadowsdarknes]

So if we had to guess, where would we say XB1 is sold to consumers?

4.5 million? Maybe by the end of the year we will see 7.5 million.

 

[Speedy Blue Dude]

So if we had to guess, where would we say XB1 is sold to consumers?

4.5 million? Maybe by the end of the year we will see 7.5 million.

Phil Harrison said they're over 5 million units sold. So I'll take a safe guess and say they're just barely over 5 million. 5,050,000 or something.

 

[Raist]

Phil Harrison said they're over 5 million units sold. So I'll take a safe guess and say they're just barely over 5 million. 5,050,000 or something.

Shipped, not sold. It's extremely unlikely they've past 5M yet.

 

[Principate]

That's a bit different. They lost $300 per $499 console sold and $250 for every $599 console sold. The PS3 was unprecedented losses per unit sold, never before seen and probably will never be seen again. Willingness to take a bath in one division to help ensure victory in the high def format war.

It still completely sunk the profits and then some two extremely profitable generations and then a lot more. Hardware marks up most certainly have a significant effect on the profitability of these consoles. Especially Sony who doesn't comparatively make that much money from first party games than a company like Nintendo.

Compare the operating profits of the era's of the Wii and ds to that of the PS1 and PS2. Despite roughly the same sales the operating profits are much higher for the wii and ds, That's because of hardware margins and first party IP sales both of which the PS1 and PS2 didn't have in any great degree.

 

[Welfare]

If the 360 is more than half of the 1.1 million shipments, where is it all going? Sales haven't been great for it in the US, and Europe would be selling less than the US, and Japan..., is MS stuffing 360's into the channel as well?

I still think Xbox One is a majority of the 1.1 million, historical data be damned.

So if we had to guess, where would we say XB1 is sold to consumers?

4.5 million? Maybe by the end of the year we will see 7.5 million.

I'd say any where between 4.6-4.8 million.

 

[BradleyLove]

Because there's no need to advertise the fact that it plays games. It's the new fucking Xbox. Xbox. A gaming device. It's obvious the thing plays games, they wanted to advertise it based on the new features it had that are unique to only it. Watching TV and video Skype while multitasking an app, plus efficient voice navigation.

Do you have the same complaint when iPhone commercial don't spend the entire commercial showcasing the ability to talk? It's a fucking phone of course it can call. What else can it do?

The swearing really helps you sell your point.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

Phil Harrison said they're over 5 million units sold. So I'll take a safe guess and say they're just barely over 5 million. 5,050,000 or something.

Seems rather unlikely.

Putting the Xbox One at 3 million sold as of Dec 31, 2013, that would put the Xbox One at 4.1 million including NPD.

Now did it sell 900k worldwide in 2014 in the other territories? Seems unlikely. That would put the ratio of NPD:Rest of World for Xbox One at 1.1: .9 which seems too close based upon the sales we saw in 2013 where of the 3 million sold, 1.7 of them were NPD sales.

I'd say its ~4.7 million actually sold now.

 

[Speedy Blue Dude]

The swearing really helps you sell your point.

I'm trying to cut back on swearing but its hard.

The swearing isn't out of ill-will or anger though, just a way to emphasize the point since I'm horrible at descriptive writing.

 

[cakely]

Because there's no need to advertise the fact that it plays games. It's the new fucking Xbox. Xbox. A gaming device. It's obvious the thing plays games, they wanted to advertise it based on the new features it had that are unique to only it. Watching TV and video Skype while multitasking an app, plus efficient voice navigation.

I guess it should be obvious. It honestly seems like they might have taken that assumption for granted when they made that commercial and during the May 2013 reveal.

 

[xxracerxx]

Phil Harrison said they're over 5 million units sold. So I'll take a safe guess and say they're just barely over 5 million. 5,050,000 or something.

Didn't he say shipped and not sold?

 

[serversurfer]

And that's fine. I prefer based on historical shipping data but whatever floats your boat.

I think we can both agree that simply using Q3 2014 shipping numbers as a 1:1 estimate for Q4 2014 shipping numbers is a bit daft though

lol Indeed. Anyway, I was thinking that if the 360 overshipped as a result of dropping faster than strictly history-based adjustments would've suggested, we'd be seeing overstock in the channels, but I suppose even 130K extra units wouldn't be too many when spread across the entire world.

Anyway, Aqua was saying that the disKinected Bone represented 55% of their NPD. So the pent-up demand for the core console was only 108K units in their biggest market? That seems remarkably low.

That also leaves 89K Kinected units sold, which is just shy of 18K/wk in June. The Kineted model sold about 19K/wk in May, almost exactly the same rate it sold in June.

So if less than 20K/wk is the base demand for the Kinected model in the US, what will be the base demand for the diKinected one? Surely not the 36K/wk it sold in June, since that likely represents the bulk of the people who'd been holding out hope of getting the console without the camera.

When it comes down to it, I think Kinect is still the primary differentiator between XBox and PlayStation. With PS4 being the same price, significantly more powerful, and with arguably better first-party offerings, there's really not much to draw people to the XBox platform this generation apart from Kinect. Offering the console without Kinect will bump their sales, to be sure, but how much? Even if it doubles the demand for the platform in the long term, that's still only 35-40K/wk in their biggest market by far.

Here's another interesting thing about the 55% figure. So they sold 108K in the US. If the US still represent 60% of their WW sales, that's as many as 180K of the new SKU worldwide. If the US is up around 70% for them now — which seems entirely possible given their performance in mainland Europe — then that would be 154K.

So… given that in Q3, they told us they were already overstocked on XBones with cameras, and then they needed to stock the shelves for their re-launch in June, are we assuming that most or all of the 470-600K XBones they shipped this quarter were the new model? That being the case, wouldn't that mean there are already 290-445K of the new ones sitting on shelves. So like, 2-3x what it sold during its launch month? Wouldn't that indicate Tier 1 retailers are pretty much stocked for Q1, and most/all of the Q1 shipments will be going to support the Tier 2 launch?