michaelius
Banned
What if he works in Microsoft HQ?
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Microsoft Q4: 1.1M XBO/360 Shipped
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What if he works in Microsoft HQ?
Summer is slow...I doubt much will happen until Destiny drops...Thus begins the fall rush of games.
I think its obvious that Titanfall was not the system seller that MS intended it to be. As such, I think Destiny will have a huge impact in the coming months. People will buy the console that has most of their friends playing on it. My bet is a lot of gamers will buy Destiny for both consoles. Since Sony seems to have made some deals with Bungie, Ps4 along with their already larger base already has an advantage.
I think its obvious that Titanfall was not the system seller that MS intended it to be. As such, I think Destiny will have a huge impact in the coming months. People will buy the console that has most of their friends playing on it. My bet is a lot of gamers will buy Destiny for both consoles. Since Sony seems to have made some deals with Bungie, Ps4 along with their already larger base already has an advantage.
serversurfer
Member
That's achieved through price drops. Eventually, all of the people interested in a $400 console will have bought one. At that point, they drop the price to $350, and so on. That's why the PS1 and PS2 got price drops, despite having little or no competition.
We don't need MS to keep Sony honest; the market and their own self-interest can handle that just fine, thanks.
DustyVonEric
Member
Where are you getting these numbers from?
hmm, a mobile phone and a gaming console are two different breed of electronics. one is a "an everyday need" where as an xbox one/ps4 are gaming consoles, thus optional.
so yes, people are very likely to know that a mobile phone is used to talk. I mean, 5 yo kids now have mobile phones and tablets. a gaming console is different. there are still people out there who ask "what's an xbox?" or "what's a playstation"?. this is where marketing is so important.
Sony went with the whole gaming angle, whereas Microsoft chose the "all in one entertainment system" (along with some ridiculous initial policies which tarnished the brand). Sony's message was clear, backed up with great hardware and a less expensive price tag. it's no mystery why it's the leading platform for this gen.
While those numbers may not be exact, it was pretty well known at the time that the PS3 cost $800+ to make initially.
SwiftDeath
Member
Well presumably May was disastrous for MS because of their early announcement which seems reasonable thus signifying consumers not interested in kinect waiting until June
So over 9 weeks MS sold 108k kinectless SKUs and 185.35k kinect SKUs with the knowledge of the kinectless SKUs existence/availability known for 7 of those 9 weeks
So if I had to guess I would say the kinectless baseline would be something to the order of 108k/7 -> 15.5K/week
The problem I have with trying to draw any conclusion based on said information is more the existence of the TF bundle then anything else as it potentially offers far more value.
July should be interesting because the TF bundle appears to be finally gone from an official standpoint
Personally I would be wary of assuming too much of a change in US/WW sales ratios simply because it's a powerful ratio. A change of 10% can alter your WW install base by quite a bit. At most I think even with how US centric XB1 is it's probably more to the order of 65% at most. That's just my gut feeling on the matter though
About XB1 shipments, I would have to assume MS shipped quite a bit of kinectless SKUs considering their general availability. I would imagine that there exists quite a stock of kinect models so refresh of that SKU seems unlikely to any large extent. And as I mentioned before it seems they intend to discontinue the TF bundle.
It wouldn't surprise me if Q1 shipments are mostly towards Tier 2 countries but at the same time, those markets aren't particularly large so who knows?
one key difference is that making phone calls is now something people RARELY do on their cell phones while a video console is still mostly used to play video games for most people
But what if the game looks similar on 360 as it does to the one (case in point Titanfall was kind of similar situation) . 360 has a large install base and may have the most copies of Destiny sold on that console... What I'm saying is, a 360 owner has no real reason to upgrade to a "one"
COD is right around the corner, as is Destiny, we are talking large chunks of people perfectly happy with the game looking the way it does on their 360. (in this case, chunks = millions) .
Neuromancer
Member
Actually, every single commercial from the first set of iPhone ads did convey the message that it was a phone. That's probably why it was a successful advertising campaign.
Here are seven early iPhone commercials; phone functionality appears in each one, either receiving or making a call:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37fMdoU8kyY
Mike Works
Member
The fact that the first commercial their aired focused wholly on SPORTS AND TV and didn't show a second of any videogames is indicative of their downfall in terms of focus. I don't think there were too many people who knew of the Xbox 360, watched that commercial, and then panicked that the new one wouldn't play games.
But it is a nice 30 second microcosm of Microsoft's failure in mindset.
Mix Master
Member
more proof that yusuf mehdi and phil harrison need to be gone. everyone on the sony side is likeable and those two idiots are continuing the downfall of xbox
This is why Apple is successful at these things. Simple messages, conveyed clearly, showing functionality that people will likely find useful. This is why you don't have people dancing around like idiots showing off one stupid gimmick that no one cares about.
SerTapTap
Member
It's actually a nice feature, just a godawful ad. Trying to give it "personality" I guess. Their Surface Pro 3 ad was much better (and impressive as an ad--it's all one take): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTo5DfBtWkY
Microsoft figures out what they need to do...just...slowly.
How can an official video be 480p?
SerTapTap
Member
Hah, didn't notice that. That's a sad oversight.
SwiftDeath
Member
Wow that commercial just wow
Angelus Errare
Banned
lmao.
Imperfected
Member
It's sad, but the best PR Microsoft has gotten for the XB1 has come from reversing decisions they spent millions of dollars telling people they had made. Almost every bit of paid advertisement and endorsement has been wasted money, and much of the early stuff was actually actively harmful to the brand.
If even a fraction of their bloated marketing budget had actually been used in a way that generated positive results, this would probably be an entirely different situation. I suppose it's a hopeful sign, though, in that the old truism that you can sell people anything if you advertise it hard enough has been proven at least partially wrong: there's clearly a bar for quality on the advertising and not just money spent that has to be met.
And Phil Spencer was the one who made it happen! (along with the TV TV stuff)
Puts the "I believe in Spencer!" stuff in an awkward context...
GoofsterStud
Member
No. There was a new article today that I didn't think was thread worthy.
Source: http://www.techtimes.com/articles/1...th-of-xbox-entertainment-studios-showtime.htm
No gaming soul?
Well thankfully they did just that. They showed how you can watch the thing you've already been watching since the 50's through a $500 device and then they showed Skype, the massive multiplatform app that everyone and their grandma has access to... now for $500.
And it was a rousing success....
Wait... It wasn't and now they changed every single part of that vision in one of the biggest upheavals for a product vision I've ever seen.
BabyFaceKillah
Member
No it doesn't.
people make shitty and dumbass deals all the time.
I'm also wondering what he means.
cool. I like Spielberg's work...
it left me wanting when it came to gaming. it's a "feel" thing.
ProfessorMoran
Member
Never believed in Spencer, not sure why he got a free pass when he was knee deep in the sewage like shit doesn't stick. He was as guilty as Medhi Yusuf and Don't Mattrick, the only difference is Mattrick didn't survive this and ended up taking the bulk of the blame and Yusuf wasn't as slick.
Goodacre0081
Member
im going to guess that the contract might be hard to cancel at this point in production.
IMO the entire team of executives had been out of touch since 2010 when the first kinect was introduced. It's just a shame it lasted long enough for them to design the next console.
If the payday Mattrick got is considered "not surviving", sign me up for not surviving now!
Dragonborn
Member
Not to mention Phil Spencer was also formerly head of MGS, which is renowned for their... well, let's say "underwhelming" output compared to Nintendo and Sony. Don't get me wrong, I think he'll do better than Mattrick, but I really don't get all the love. Especially up towards E3 when everyone was hyping him up and all he delivered was multiplats and CGI trailers for games we won't see for years (I'll get excited for them next E3, when we actually see them in action).
So yea, I honestly don't get all the love.
To be fair, Mattrick did make a lot of money for MS. As much as I dislike it, Kinect was a run away success and brought Xbox to profitability... pretty high too. It's, I guess he let that go to his head. But yea, it's not like he got that big payday for nothing.
I'm assuming Xbox 360 shipped more simply because it's available in more markets than the Xbox One. Xbox 360 also saw the release of Titanfall on April 8th. Xbox360 also has been moving more software, globally, than Xbox One. For those thinking 300k is too low. Microsoft mentioned they would be slowing production in order to allow retailers to move the some of their inventory. 900k were already in the retail chain at the beginning of 2014. Microsoft stuffed another 1.2 million expecting big numbers from Titanfall. I'm betting it's somewhere closer to 4.6 million. Otherwise Microsoft wouldn't have felt the need to slow production down.
It's still early so nobody's counting MSFT out. This generation has just started and they could make up a lot of ground. Sony should be releasing their report in early August (2 weeks after MSFT releases theirs). Grab some popcorn that day because it's going to get good on Neogaf.
Boombloxer
Member
This has been debunked pretty thoroughly.
Thanks. So the chance of Wii U out-shipping Xbox One is almost guaranteed at this point, right?
Any guesses on PS4's install base numbers anyone
LMAO!!!!! Was trying to put a positive spin on all this bad Xbox news. Sorry
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Guranteed in the sense we don't know shit. We know MS shipments were bad but we don't know precisely how bad. So whatever number comes out for Nintendo it's out for interpretation unless it's more than 700k.
BananaSprinkles
Banned
I think that would be highly unlikely.
Graphics Horse
Member
Outshipping for this quarter alone? Maybe.. but we might never know exactly. I'd much prefer there were sales numbers to talk about, it's kind of a celebration of who can best stuff the channels otherwise.
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
If you're used to getting kicked in the nuts on a constant basis, a slap in the face feels like a breath of fresh air.
Why would you do that? Microsoft has well-paid employees to come up with positive spins all of their own.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Eh It's really, really not. Most estimations for this quarter puts it around Wii U shipments for the quarter last year .It's not remotely highly unlikely. There's an actual chance, at minimum it should be close.
serversurfer
Member
I like your "divide by seven" strategy, but I wonder if it gives us an inflated sense of the demand for the new SKU, as I imagine there are some number of people who've been waiting since launch to buy the core console. Maybe it's only 20-30K, but that can alter things fairly significantly, as now that they finally have their consoles, they don't really represent much in the way of sustained demand. It would be akin to assuming their "100k/day" back in November would continue forever. See what I mean?
I was thinking that May would be fairly telling, in that it might reveal how many people actually want the camera. Then lo and behold, average weekly sales of cameras was virtually the same in June as it was in May. However, I'd assumed the TF bundles were already gone. So are you telling me what they've been selling 18K/wk of is the $500 console + camera + TF bundle, and now they're pulling the game from the bundle, making it even less appealing? Yeesh. Well, if nothing else, I guess that tells us they aren't willing to break the bank buying market share.
Well, if you don't mind, let's try to break this down for a minute. As I recall, of the 3M they claimed sold in 2013, 60% were in the US, right? 1.8M? If that ratio is holding true, then with 2.9M in the US, they'd be at 4.8M worldwide. If it's 65%, as you suggest, then we'd be looking at WW sales of 4.5M, and a 70% US concentration would give them a total of 4.1M units sold through.
So where did they sell these units? They sold 2.9M in the US, obviously. I believe someone said 500-600K for the UK? Is that right? It sounds fairly reasonable. So that gives us 3.4-3.5M units accounted for. Agreed? If they're holding at 60%, that would mean "Tier 1.5" Germany, Australia, etc. would need to have purchased ~1.4 units since launch. ~1.1M in Tier 1.5 would put them at 65% US, and ~700K for 70%.
Follow? lol Okay, so we're looking for 700-1400K units in Tier 1.5. Where do we find them, exactly? I think Germany is the largest not-US/UK/JP market, right? So maybe half of what UK has purchased, and half of Germany for Australia? Oh, maybe another 250K in Canada? So that's 662K in T1.5. I know it pretty much flopped in Spain. Where else can they even sell a significant number of units? France? I can see 700K in not-US/UK, but 1100-1400K? iwannaseethereceipts.gif
Sorry, but I keep seeing WW estimates of 4.5-4.8M, but no one can explain where they were sold. All I usually get is, "I dunno; I just can't imagine they're doing that badly " lol
26 countries add up pretty quickly. That's a lot of distribution centers to fill. If they entice all of them with their "Buy 15K; get 5K" Launch Day Saleathon, that's over half a million units. Granted, they won't need to restock Tier 2 for a year or two, but the extra 500K will be a nice PR bump going in to the holidays, and they can bill the $52M hardware writedown to Marketing.
SwiftDeath
Member
I tried a new estimation approach a day or so ago that I thought would be more accurate. Puts PS4 WW LTD at around 8.68M as of July 5th
I'm fairly certain there was some portion of kinectless SKU buyers who were waiting on a lower price point and thus would not have purchased in May regardless of an announcement of a cheaper SKU or not however I have no way to account for that and thus must simply assume that the baseline demand for the kinectless SKU is likely to be < 15.5k a week by the numbers
Pretty much from what I've seen. For instance the Amazon Rankings of some SKUs
Code:
SKU | March | April | May | June | July so far |
------------------------------------------------------------------
PS4 STD | 01 | 05 | 06 | 08 | 11
XB1 Kinect | 76 | ?? | ?? | ?? | ??
XB1 TF | 11 | 24 | 39 | 50 | ??
XB1 KL | NA | NA | NA | 49 | 56As you can see the standard kinect XB1 SKU quickly fell to the wayside as soon as the better valued TF bundle came out. With the TF bundle falling to the wayside you would think some of the other SKUs would pick up a bit but I haven't seen that
Assuming a 65% US/WW ratio then given US LTD of ~2916k, WW sales would be ~4486k of sales WW, with ~1570k outside of the US which is what you're debating.
So in the UK, MS sold ~364k units in 2013. In the US MS sold ~1817k in 2013 to 1099k in 2014 so 60% as much. Extrapolating the final bit would mean .6 * ( 364) = 220k
So possibly the install base in the UK for XB1 is now 584k. I would argue though that the UK has received the best value via pricecuts, and promotions for XB1 from anywhere relative to initial launch value. It launched at 429 GBP or about ~731 USD which is actually higher than the intial PS3 launch price there btw
Since then they have dropped the price to 379 GBP for the kinect, 389 GBP for the TF bundle, and 349 GBP for kinectless BUT they did have the TF bundle for 349 GBP for several weeks so I feel XB1 might now be putting up more of a fight there then even in the US. Hard to tell though and the software certainly suggests PS4 is winning but I dunno.
I'd say maybe 300k more [instead of 220k] in the UK so like 684k total which leaves ~1M consoles WW. I don't really think it's so hard to imagine MS has garnered 1M sales in all other countries combined
I mean
126k XB1's sold in France in 2013, 36k in Spain in 2013, 100k in Germany in 2013, 66k in Australian Launch
So while not particularly impressive it does have sales outside the US just not as much usually
serversurfer
Member
I saw that. It seemed like a pretty reasonable estimate. EDIT:
So if your PS4 number is about right, that would give the PS4 a slightly better than 2:1 sell-through advantage over XBone through June. That would line up with Ubi's sales last quarter. Here's a chart I made for that thread:
Note the chart only compares PlayStation and XBox; Wiis and other platforms are ignored. Anyway, it's also interesting to note the PS4 is overtaking XBone slightly faster than Gen8 is overtaking Gen7. (68/32 vs 63/37)
TheUnsunghero26
Member
I don't get why some are so quick to berate the "I believe in Phil Spencer" meme. Its just a fun avatar meme, similar to the luigi hats, Kaz heads, beanies, etc.
Phil's left a good impression on me and others through twitter, recent interviews, his appearance on Giant Bomb etc.
He's not some saviour or god, but he is a likeable guy. I'm happy with the direction he is taking Xbox. Obviously it's not in the best position, and likely won't see the same success as the 360, but as long as the games keep coming, it won't affect me.