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[The Great Gonzales]

I want to isolate this part of the argument, because it's come up a lot in the past day or two:

It's an amateur mistake on something that is very non-amateur, it's even such a high quality in the image itself that you would have to believe it was intentionally put there. Meaning it was not overlooked, it was intentional.
[...]
That is not simply throwing away inconsistencies. I am asking if you really think that is the thing they would mess up on because, among all the things it gets so right, that is a really bizarre and amateur thing to mess up.

When stuff like Yoshi's position on the CSS is used as an objection to the leak, the response is often, "if this leak is fake, then the faker put a ton of effort and skill into it; and someone who put that much effort into it wouldn't make such silly mistakes."

That, I think, is not at all true. I've made the following counterargument a couple times before, but I haven't seen anyone respond to it, so I'll make it again:

If this leak is a fake, then yes, it is a very well-made fake, but that does not mean the faker is immune to little mistakes. On the contrary. It often happens that when one is doing a complex task, one is so focused on getting the main parts right that one overlooks the little details. For example, how many times have you been doing a complex math problem, and you get the basic procedure right but end up making a simple arithmetic error? It happens to the best of us: when you put all of your energy into the big things, you tend to miss the little things.

That's what I suspect happened in this leak with Yoshi's position on the CSS. The leaker was concentrating on getting the renders to look convincing (and a fine job he did of that) that he overlooked this small matter. Perhaps he forgot that Yoshi was his own franchise; perhaps he forgot that Rosalina was part of the franchise and didn't have her own "Galaxy franchise" or something; perhaps he simply made a thoughtless error and put Yoshi in the wrong place.

Now, you can say, "just because it's weird doesn't mean it's fake. Sakurai does weird stuff like this all the time, how do you know he didn't rearrange the CSS?" That is true, but without any independent reason to believe that the CSS has been rearranged in this way, then it's merely an ad hoc objection. In all previous Smash games, the CSS has grouped franchises together. Unless I'm overlooking something, there has never been a case of one franchise splitting another; characters from the same franchise are always adjacent. In the face of that precedent, it's rational to assume that this game will work the same way. Yes, it could be different this time, but thus far there's no real reason to believe that it is different. Given the information we have, I think it's more likely the leaker made a mistake.

 

[georly]

Things that will prove the leak is real before launch:

• Any characters on the CSS or the renders in the leak are revealed *AND* their renders are *IDENTICAL* to the ones in the leak.
• Stage select is revealed and the revealed stages are identical to the ones present in the leak. (I.E. anything not in the E3 demo that shows up in the stage select and the portrait is identical)

Things that will give credence to the leak but not necessarily confirm it:

• Characters are shown w/ levels like that SS in the leak
• Mii Fighter/Character screen is identical to the one in the leak
• Brawl's Yoshi's Island stage is revealed
• Starting CSS is revealed and yoshi's position is shown to be the same in the leak (before rosalina)

Things that will disprove the leak:

• Any characters do not match their renders
• Stage select screen is shown and non-e3 stages' portraits DO NOT match the leaked Stage select screen

Things that will neither prove nor disprove the leak:

• A character is revealed that is *NOT* on the leaked CSS (Ice climbers, wolf, etc)
• any character's position is different in a revealed starting CSS than the leak

 

[Beelzebufo]

Hehe. Good luck though!

I personally can't really decide. Officially I'm on #TeamFake, but I dunno man, it could go either way. It could go either way.

When one of the first images was posted, someone made a comment like "why doesn't the leaker just post a pic of the full roster" and then the Mr. Badger posted a picture of what seemed to be just that. Right then I was pretty much sure. The dog, Shulk, and Bowser Jr. were too high quality not to be real.

The more it lingered though, the more small mistakes got pointed out. DHD Dog's is almost too ridiculous and weird, a lot of the CSS icons look bad, the stage selection looks like a cluttered mess. No in game shots seem like a somewhat convenient situation, and there's no reason some of this stuff would be shown to the ESRB. Shulk is a 'too good to be true' sort of character. Several veterans inexplicably cut (RIPIPIP in peace). And the longer we go without additional shots the more it seems like the leak was the result of a sophisticated attempt at a fake.

The thick black bar on the Kirby shot and the Tomodachi life stage icon are kinda swinging me back toward real though.

Like with any 'leak', it makes more sense and is more likely for it to be fake. But there's some really nicely done images and some really odd quirks that make it seem realistic. So I couldn't say. It could go either way.

If it helps, think of it this way.

Weigh the possibility of you being unhappy about parts of the character/stage selection at first glance regardless if it is real or not (Team Real)

Against the possibility of a leaker correctly choosing one of 100+ Tomodachi Life rooms to put into their fake little picture of it for no reason other than the chance at possibly being chosen legitimate (Team Fake).

 

[SenorArdilla]

"A duck bearing a green onion is a creature walking naïvely towards a nasty fate, and the idiom has come to refer to individuals who are easy to deceive. One dictionary gives the meaning 'along comes a sucker just begging to be parted from his money'. As a result, somebody who is easy to take advantage of can be referred to in Japanese as a kamo (&#40232 or 'duck'."

 

[Crocodile]

Oh please. If Snake was cut, it wasn't over time constraints. If they were bitter enough to scrap Rayman because of the Legends delay, then it should be pretty obvious why Snake isn't coming back.

HOLY SHIT you understand there's a big difference between

Scenario A
Ubisoft: Put Rayman in as a playable character
Nintendo: OK

X amount of time later for reason Y

Nintendo: Actually fuck you, all you get is a trophy!

and

Scenario B
Ubisoft: Put Rayman in as a playable character
Nintendo: Nah. We can put in a cool trophy nod though.

right?

John Harker et al. never said Rayman was in, just that Ubisoft TRIED.

 

[Tripon]

And for Miiverse reactions to POTD.

 

[PadWarrior]

Thank you lol

 

[Gartooth]

Things that will neither prove nor disprove the leak:

• A character is revealed that is *NOT* on the leaked CSS (Ice climbers, wolf, etc)

Wouldn't that actually be a point that disproves the leak? A character like Ice Climbers being in the full game rather than as DLC that is.

 

[Storm Kyleis]

That's how I do read it. Like Shulk, he's with the third-party dudes. So he's out of place.

Someone HAS to end up near the outsiders, that's not the point.

The order in the "leak" is Pokémon > single characters > clones > empty space. Then, in the next row, just Shulk > outsiders. It doesn't make any sense to divide them.

The Klonoa 'leak' was brought down by a simple Japanese mistake. Plenty of leaks can be brought down by simple errors.

This. There isn't a definitive proof that it's fake, but many things look wrong or out of place.

 

[uncleniccius]

Amiibo question:
I want to buy one because they look cool, but as I will spend loads on them otherwise I am limiting myself to one.

Which one should I go for? Jiggly Puff is probably if she is in/looks cool, but which are you guys leaning towards?

 

[georly]

teehee his hair looks long

Wouldn't that actually be a point that disproves the leak? A character like Ice Climbers being in the full game rather than as DLC that is.

I don't consider some random person on 4chan claiming to know DLC as part of the leak.

I'm strictly talking about the leaked pictures. Anyone can claim to be from the ESRB and claim to know what the DLC is. I don't buy that post.

 

[The Bankslammer]

am i approaching weird conspiracy theory levels for thinking the tomodachi life stage select portrait is kinda suspect.

Like, most other stages have pretty broad looks at the whole stage, or at least show something representative of it as a whole (for reference, all the official stage select portraits in the demo). I would've expected the Tomodachi Life thumbnail to be more similar to that of its closest counterpart, Luigi's Mansion, with a look at the entire exterior of the building, as the stage itself is the entire building, not that one room.

I honestly don't know if what I'm saying is logical or not, I'm just trying to reason this all out. Even if it was real, it's just seems like such a funny coincidence that the day after it leaks, Famitsu shows a new room that's in the stage select portrait (which it just happened to choose out of alllll the rooms available). Not trying to say "it's clearly fake" or anything. It just seems odd to me. I dunno. I'm just at the point where I'm really hoping we get a PotD to settle all this soon, lol.

 

[emb]

John Harker et al. never said Rayman was in, just that Ubisoft TRIED.

If I had moderately popular game characters I would do my best to get them in Smash Bros. too. I can't think of a better advertisement.

If I was Nintendo though, I'd be careful not to let just anyone into my Smash Bros.

Anyway, scenario B clearly makes so much more sense here lol. Annoying as Ubisoft's handling of Rayman Legends was, it probably had no effect on this.

 

[Neoxon]

But yeah, the levels are either handicaps or Smash Run.

 

[Scooter155]

Holes, aka unknown information, neither proves or disproves the leak.

Do we know why 6ish characters are missing from the CSS? No. Does that mean it's fake? No. Does it mean it's real? No.

Do we know why Characters have levels in one screen? No. Does that mean it's fake? No. Does it mean it's real? No.

Do we know why the stages are arranged in a weird way? No. Does that mean it's fake? No. Does it mean it's real? No.

Stop using oddities in the pictures as proof of it being fake. All it means is that we currently have no explanation for it. There are already another handful of oddities that have been explained. They were originally used as proof of it being fake, but have turned out to be real. :/

Good point. Debating is fun but 99% of the evidence being presented isn't evidence at all, one way or the other. There's not much that could prove or disprove the leak now short of official information from Sakurai.

Still #teamreal by the way.

 

[KelpPlankton]

Wouldn't that actually be a point that disproves the leak? A character like Ice Climbers being in the full game rather than as DLC that is.

The "DLC list" is highly suspect and one of the three image-leakers is saying that it was not part of what they knew at all, and someone just making things up.

I think the only stuff we should pay attention to are the pictures.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

If this leak is fake, I'd love for the creator to show us the steps he took to make it, and explain stuff like the Tomadachi stage Famitsu thing.

 

[Ryce]

Things that will neither prove nor disprove the leak:

• A character is revealed that is *NOT* on the leaked CSS (Ice climbers, wolf, etc)

An Ice Climbers reveal would most certainly disprove the leak. The leak is clearly a video reel of some sort (the two screens are attached -- there's no physical hardware), and there's no reason for any characters to be excluded from it, especially if it's for the ESRB as speculated. The person who posted the pictures on 4chan also said the Ice Climbers were going to be DLC. They wouldn't be revealed on the site before release like any other character if that was true.

 

[Neoxon]

The "DLC list" is highly suspect and one of the three image-leakers is saying that it was not part of what they knew at all, and someone just making things up.

I think the only stuff we should pay attention to are the pictures.

But didn't the DLC come from the original leaker?

 

[emb]

am i approaching weird conspiracy theory levels for thinking the tomodachi life stage select portrait is kinda suspect.

Like, most other stages have pretty broad looks at the whole stage, or at least show something representative of it as a whole (for reference, all the official stage select portraits in the demo). I would've expected the Tomodachi Life thumbnail to be more similar to that of its closest counterpart, Luigi's Mansion, with a look at the entire exterior of the building, as the stage itself is the entire building, not that one room.

I honestly don't know if what I'm saying is logical or not, I'm just trying to reason this all out. Even if it was real, it's just seems like such a funny coincidence that the day after it leaks, Famitsu shows a new room that's in the stage select portrait (which it just happened to choose out of alllll the rooms available). Not trying to say "it's clearly fake" or anything. It just seems odd to me. I dunno. I'm just at the point where I'm really hoping we get a PotD to settle all this soon, lol.

Suspect how? Are you postulating that Famitsu got the picture from the leak? Or just that the leaker saw Famitsu first?

I think it's kind of a weird choice too, but I don't really see what you're getting at here.

 

[KelpPlankton]

am i approaching weird conspiracy theory levels for thinking the tomodachi life stage select portrait is kinda suspect.

Like, most other stages have pretty broad looks at the whole stage, or at least show something representative of it as a whole (for reference, all the official stage select portraits in the demo). I would've expected the Tomodachi Life thumbnail to be more similar to that of its closest counterpart, Luigi's Mansion, with a look at the entire exterior of the building, as the stage itself is the entire building, not that one room.

I honestly don't know if what I'm saying is logical or not, I'm just trying to reason this all out. Even if it was real, it's just seems like such a funny coincidence that the day after it leaks, Famitsu shows a new room that's in the stage select portrait (which it just happened to choose out of alllll the rooms available). Not trying to say "it's clearly fake" or anything. It just seems odd to me. I dunno. I'm just at the point where I'm really hoping we get a PotD to settle all this soon, lol.

Unfortunately this falls into the realm of "I don't like this and/or it looks weird to me" and isn't really a point for or against anything.

If you look at stage pictures in Brawl or Melee there are quite a few that aren't full stage shots and are zoomed in.

You can see a number of those types of shots in both images there. It basically means nothing.

 

[Boss Doggie]

deliver us from this chaos, sakurai

 

[Gonzo The Great]

Suspect how? Are you postulating that Famitsu got the picture from the leak?

Somebody could have gotten their hands on an issue of Famitsu early and added the picture to the leak at the last minute, knowing that people would go "OMG it's real" instead of questioning why the picture is only showing one room as opposed to the entire building.

 

[KelpPlankton]

But didn't the DLC come from the original leaker?

One of the three. One of the other two said he was wrong. It's hard to know who to believe, so just ignore all of it and focus on what we can see instead of stuff anyone could write up.

 

[The Bankslammer]

Unfortunately this falls into the realm of "I don't like this and/or it looks weird to me" and isn't really a point for or against anything.

I certainly didn't mean it as anything else, as I said, lol

 

[Gartooth]

If the DLC thing was just someone riding off the images though, then that kind of throws the whole thing into question at least for me personally. Given the references in Smash Run and the Gematsu leak, I'm really skeptical of Chorus Men and Ice Climbers missing the roster.

 

[Watch Da Birdie]

am i approaching weird conspiracy theory levels for thinking the tomodachi life stage select portrait is kinda suspect.

Like, most other stages have pretty broad looks at the whole stage, or at least show something representative of it as a whole (for reference, all the official stage select portraits in the demo). I would've expected the Tomodachi Life thumbnail to be more similar to that of its closest counterpart, Luigi's Mansion, with a look at the entire exterior of the building, as the stage itself is the entire building, not that one room.

Some of the Brawl Stage Thumbnails were also sort of zoomed in like that.

Distant Planet just shows a Bulborb, 75 M and Mario Bros. just shows Donkey Kong/Shell Creeper, and Flat Zone 2 a zoomed in shot of the GW Firemen.

Although perhaps the fact that we don't have any other Stages on the SSS of Smash 4 that have that interesting zoom in might be a point towards fake.

 

[georly]

An Ice Climbers reveal would most certainly disprove the leak. The leak is clearly a video reel of some sort (the two screens are attached -- there's no physical hardware), and there's no reason for any characters to be excluded from it, especially if it's for the ESRB as speculated. The person who posted the pictures on 4chan also said the Ice Climbers were going to be DLC. They wouldn't be revealed on the site before release like any other character if that was true.

there's no reason for any characters to be excluded from it
no reason

Just because we don't know the reason, or the reason isn't immediately obvious to us does not mean that there is *NO* reason.

What proof do we have that the person who posted the pictures on 4chan is the one who took the pictures? What proof do we have that he is also privy to the DLC roster? Every other section of stages is organized 2 rows, 1 column. Leaker made a huge mistake making the first row different.

I don't think Ice climbers appearing on the dojo this week or next would prove or disprove anything.

Is it *POSSIBLE* that ice climbers disproves it? Sure. Do we know for a fact that ice climbers disproves it? Not really.

You can see a number of those types of shots in both images there. It basically means nothing.

That melee Stage select is so fake. Why would the stages be organized like that? Why isn't the ice climbers stage under the game and watch stage, instead of in a weird position like that? Melee leak is fake.

 

[User 73706]

The sad thing is this joke wouldn't have worked if it weren't for Halo 4.

 

[Hero Prinny]

Amiibo question:
I want to buy one because they look cool, but as I will spend loads on them otherwise I am limiting myself to one.

Which one should I go for? Jiggly Puff is probably if she is in/looks cool, but which are you guys leaning towards?

out of series 1 im really digging Samus and Mario the most. Think I'll get those two. Also Marth, Peach, kirby, DK, and Yoshi look great as well but the other two I mentioned look the best. I would've loved to have gotten one of my main, pikachu, but his looks so plain that I'm not going to bother. Will deff get one of Mewtwo and Greninja tho.

Spoiler

nothing stops the mewtwo hype train

 

[-Horizon-]

So, this madness is still going huh.

 

[Devil]

If this leak is fake, I'd love for the creator to show us the steps he took to make it, and explain stuff like the Tomadachi stage Famitsu thing.

Yep, however this will end that guy took us on a fun ride.

edit:
I think this is my 300th post which will give me Member status, right? Well, over 4 years in the making, haha.

 

[Timeaisis]

Wow, 60 pages in one day. Damn, guys.

 

[Polioliolio]

This can't be real. Look how bad this looks. What the hell is that extra long ear?

 

[Camjo-Z]

I honestly don't know if what I'm saying is logical or not, I'm just trying to reason this all out. Even if it was real, it's just seems like such a funny coincidence that the day after it leaks, Famitsu shows a new room that's in the stage select portrait (which it just happened to choose out of alllll the rooms available). Not trying to say "it's clearly fake" or anything. It just seems odd to me. I dunno. I'm just at the point where I'm really hoping we get a PotD to settle all this soon, lol.

I can't imagine this dude would scour a new issue of Famitsu to find one miniscule detail about the Tomodachi Life stage on the off-chance that somebody would notice that specific room, all for a leak that will be definitively proved real or fake in less than a month.

 

[uncleniccius]

out of series 1 im really digging Samus and Mario the most. Think I'll get those two. Also Marth, Peach, kirby, DK, and Yoshi look great as well but the other two I mentioned look the best. I would've loved to have gotten one of my main, pikachu, but his looks so plain that I'm not going to bother. Will deff get one of Mewtwo and Greninja tho.

Spoiler

nothing stops the mewtwo hype train

Are the currently revealed ones the ones that will be there at launch?

Mario and Marth are my favourites so far, my issue with Yoshi is that he is paler than I would like - I guess that's too much Melee playing on my mind!

 

[KelpPlankton]

If the DLC thing was just someone riding off the images though, then that kind of throws the whole thing into question at least for me personally. Given the references in Smash Run and the Gematsu leak, I'm really skeptical of Chorus Men and Ice Climbers missing the roster.

The person who said that the DLC information was wrong also said that the roster shots didn't have everyone unlocked yet. They could be in.

 

[NotLiquid]

Somebody could have gotten their hands on an issue of Famitsu early and added the picture to the leak at the last minute, knowing that people would go "OMG it's real" instead of questioning why the picture is only showing one room as opposed to the entire building.

I don't believe the leak but I find it highly doubtful that the leaker had the Famitsu mag as reference. The stage selection image has a number of discrepancies from the actual scan and if they wanted accuracy they wouldn't change it. If its fake, its mostly likely that the leaker just got really lucky.

 

[Mr.Miyamoto]

This can't be real. Look how bad this looks. What the hell is that extra long ear?

That's a joke edit of the purported fuller render.

 

[Scooter155]

This can't be real. Look how bad this looks. What the hell is that extra long ear?

That's a joke mockup someone made based on an almost certainly fake "clean render" of the Dog that came out after (and separately from) the original leaks.

 

[Okrag]

That melee Stage select is so fake. Why would the stages be organized like that? Why isn't the ice climbers stage under the game and watch stage, instead of in a weird position like that? Melee leak is fake.

Why is the Battlefield portrait off-center like that? So fake.

 

[random25]

And for Miiverse reactions to POTD.

Miiverse have really stepped up their game lol! Smash truly brings out their "useful" creative side.

 

[Nickle]

Hehe. Good luck though!

I personally can't really decide. Officially I'm on #TeamFake, but I dunno man, it could go either way. It could go either way.

When one of the first images was posted, someone made a comment like "why doesn't the leaker just post a pic of the full roster" and then the Mr. Badger posted a picture of what seemed to be just that. Right then I was pretty much sure. The dog, Shulk, and Bowser Jr. were too high quality not to be real.

The more it lingered though, the more small mistakes got pointed out. DHD Dog's is almost too ridiculous and weird, a lot of the CSS icons look bad, the stage selection looks like a cluttered mess. No in game shots seem like a somewhat convenient situation, and there's no reason some of this stuff would be shown to the ESRB. Shulk is a 'too good to be true' sort of character. Several veterans inexplicably cut (RIPIPIP in peace). And the longer we go without additional shots the more it seems like the leak was the result of a sophisticated attempt at a fake.

The thick black bar on the Kirby shot and the Tomodachi life stage icon are kinda swinging me back toward real though.

Like with any 'leak', it makes more sense and is more likely for it to be fake. But there's some really nicely done images and some really odd quirks that make it seem realistic. So I couldn't say. It could go either way.

I started off the opposite. The renders of the new characters all looked strange, the CSS looked awfully designed, their were no ice climbers, and several things just looked off. However, the fact that it hadn't been able to be disproven yet shows that it really could be real.

lifetime avatar, so I guess rest of your life?

Eh, it's just a picture. I'll probably be banned for doing something stupid anyway.

Bro, if you've changed your mind we can call it off. I really don't care. I'm more interested in making a statement that there's a 0% chance the leak is fake than I am of actually changing anyone's avatar.

That sounds good.

Spoiler

I'll just write "I was wrong" on my avatar for a few months as a form of self-punishment if I'm wrong.

 

[Hero Prinny]

Are the currently revealed ones the ones that will be there at launch?

Mario and Marth are my favourites so far, my issue with Yoshi is that he is paler than I would like - I guess that's too much Melee playing on my mind!

the ones revealed are part of series 1 as they call it. they'll be available either at or around launch of the wii u version as far as I know.

 

[-Horizon-]

This can't be real. Look how bad this looks. What the hell is that extra long ear?

"This isn't even my final form"

 

[Forkball]

Their posts are so polite and reserved.

I guess the nuance in their post might be getting lost in translation? !

I thought the same thing.

Japanese reaction: Ah, interesting.
Western reaction: HOLY FUCK #TEAMFUCK

Also I've been playing the second Taiko no Tatsujin game for 3DS and I now want DON-CHAN as a newcomer.

He is in Pac-Man's taunt already, but I think he would be fun to play as. If you've never played Taiko no Tatsujin, it's a rhythm game based on the large Japanese taiko drum. With red circles you hit the drum, and on the blue circles you hit the side of the drum. There are also big circles where you have to hit with both sticks (or a specific area on the 3DS version), and other special notes where you can hit anything or you have to tap really fast.
You can dress him up in the game, so he has a large array of alt costumes. Also you can palette swap his brother, Katsu, into the game.

Also he was already in Mario Kart arcade.

 

[Thorakai]

I really hope Ice Climbers makes it in because the only good reason I could think of for cutting them is that Sakurai couldn't make them work on the 3DS, and I don't want those characters held back because of some hardware limitation.

 

[ffdgh]

So, this madness is still going huh.

It probably won't end until the JP.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Somebody could have gotten their hands on an issue of Famitsu early and added the picture to the leak at the last minute, knowing that people would go "OMG it's real" instead of questioning why the picture is only showing one room as opposed to the entire building.

But, while the room is the same, the angle of the shot is different.

- They would have had to have gotten the magazine early
- Owned Tamodachi Life
- Had a Mii with that apartment
- Took a screenshot at the proper angle (which is challenging)
- Edited their leak and re-take the picture of that screen

Also they had to also either get lucky with Planet Zebes stage, or also edited that in extremely quickly, as the leak was only like 10 hours after Zebes was shown.

 

[Neoxon]

One of the three. One of the other two said he was wrong. It's hard to know who to believe, so just ignore all of it and focus on what we can see instead of stuff anyone could write up.

Which one of the other two?