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September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th

A

ascii42

Member
jakncoke said:
Maybe pachter is of the belief that sales will have a gta 4 effect where 360/PS3 sold even or less month over month, i cant remember exactly and didnt jump big like people expected. My only conclusion on why he'd predict like that.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Really, it's the fact that there's a bundle that makes me think there will be a jump. GTA IV may not have done much, but the GTA V bundle helped the PS3 a lot last year.
 
T

TrebuchetGames

Member
I don't expect the XBO to pass the PS4 this month, if it does then slap me with a fish.

[PS4] - 320K
[XB1] - 200k
[3DS] - 106k
[Wii U] - 73k
[360] - 58k
[PS3] - 35k
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
jakncoke said:
Maybe pachter is of the belief that sales will have a gta 4 effect where 360/PS3 sold even or less month over month, i cant remember exactly and didnt jump big like people expected. My only conclusion on why he'd predict like that.
Click to expand...

IIRC, GTAIV came out at the end of April 2008's tracked period, that's why the effect wasn't as visible as expected (as well as PS3 and 360 being destroyed by Wii at the time :p). This time, instead, we're talking about a game that's been released around the beginning of the tracking period. Saying it's the same thing doesn't make sense at all.
 
J

jakncoke

Banned
Mpl90 said:
IIRC, GTAIV came out at the end of April 2008's tracked period, that's why the effect wasn't as visible as expected (as well as PS3 and 360 being destroyed by Wii at the time :p). This time, instead, we're talking about a game that's been released around the beginning of the tracking period. Saying it's the same thing doesn't make sense at all.
Click to expand...

Possibly, im just trying to come up with why he'd predict such figures.

Also its just looking back its crazy how much it didnt jump on either

march 2008

360 262k
ps3 257k

april 2008

360 188k
PS3 187.1k

may 2008

ps3 208.7k
360 186.6k
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Mpl90 said:
IIRC, GTAIV came out at the end of April 2008's tracked period, that's why the effect wasn't as visible as expected (as well as PS3 and 360 being destroyed by Wii at the time :p).
Click to expand...

In May 2008 no effect was seen.

GTA IV was very strange, people was expecting it would be a huge system seller, and probably was, but not on launch.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
I would love to hear Abdiel's take on the XB1 get a free game promotion

On amazon here's what the week for that promotion looked like [ran from Sept. 7th to the 13th]

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-09-08/videogames/?tag=viglink20241-20#1

#6 - PS4 Destiny Bundle
#15 - Standard PS4
#17 - Kinectless XB1

and remember that pre-orders for consoles count towards the month pre-ordered in, not the month of release so all PS4 Destiny Bundles pre-ordered prior to this particular week in September aren't counted.

Amazon's XB1 offer was also somewhat more compelling than other retailers as they included Destiny in theirs where many other retailers did not.

And sure Amazon isn't some perfect measure of the market but I just don't see any behavior indicative of a trouncing of the PS4 in September by the XB1 as Pachter predicts
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
jvm said:
Well, this is going to go well.

Pachter's estimates from this morning:

PS4 = 250K
Wii U = 85K
XB1 = 325K

Unless I'm reading this wrong...
Click to expand...

::scratches head::

I don't understand that prediction at all (haha). I mean, the free game sale did VERY well but I just don't see how it's possible for the system to do better than the PS4 during Destiny month -- and 75K better?

Are the PS4 and Xbox One predictions mixed up?
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
I think it's an overused term, an arbitrary term, and often used in the sense of a killer app that significantly drives hardware, but without any real baseline delineation of what that significant improvement entails.
Click to expand...

I definitely agree that there are flaws with the term. Many flaws.

How many systems does a piece of software need to sell to be a "system seller"? If it sells a single hardware unit is it a system seller? A thousand units? A hundred thousand? Does it need to sell hardware in a singular burst? Does it need to do so over a protracted period of time? Is it based on increased hardware sales at all? Is it based instead on other metrics like software attach rate? Does the increase need to occur concurrent to release - and if so why?
Click to expand...

Yep, good points.


Also, I don't really see how having explained it a second time you still seem to not understand what I'm saying. Your line of reasoning entails that if hardware sales increase in any given monthly transition and a particular title is released, then that effect can be ascribed to the given title. And that given some indeterminate number of systems were sold as a result under that flawed line of reasoning, the title is therefore a "system seller." And because it's a system seller it must be what caused any hardware increase.
It's both circular and conflating causation and correlation.
Click to expand...

No, I also said that it's greatly based on how well the game itself does in sales. I wouldn't say that a game that sold say less than (say) 10,000 in November greatly helped the system that it's on if that system does really well in sales for a month.

However, if a game does really well in sales for the system it's on with the system seeing a boost in sales for that month then I would say that we could make a pretty safe assumption that a good amount of people who bought the system that month also bought it alongside that game.

You mention yourself numerous notable software titles release in November, seasonal factors like holiday shopping occur. Numerous factors can correlate with increased hardware sales. Some could be causal to any increase in hardware, or they could have nothing to do with the increase. You cannot therefore ascribe a causal relationship between whatever increased hardware sales occur in November specifically to a singular event, the release of a single piece of software. And then from that determine it's status as a "guaranteed system seller".
Click to expand...

Again though, I'm not saying that it's just about a game releasing that month and nothing more. It's about that game doing well in sales too. Maybe I didn't state that enough because I assumed that pretty much everyone here feels that MCC will sell well.
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
Bgamer90 said:
::scratches head::

I don't understand that prediction at all (haha). I mean, the free game sale did VERY well but I just don't see how it's possible for the system to do better than the PS4 during Destiny month -- and 75K better?

Are the PS4 and Xbox One predictions mixed up?
Click to expand...

Nope, he gives reasons why Xbone will sell more.
We expect Xbox One sales to exceed those of the PS4 for only the second month since launch.
Click to expand...
 
D

DangerMouse

Member
Time for a total guess, but pretty much inline with most:

[PS4] 475K
[XB1] 270K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 75K
[360] 60K
[PS3] 40K

Xando said:
Didn't Sony said they had the largest sales since christmas when Destiny launched?
Also wasn't this a 5 week month?

Don't know how he can get to those numbers but its pachter so who knows.
Click to expand...

Yeah, like biggest of 2014 or something, I don't get it, Pachter's makes no sense since it would be like barely more than last month if I remember last month's thread correctly, and there's even an extra week.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Dragonborn said:
I just can't wrap my head around what kind of promotions they could pull. They've already tried everything under the sun for the last few months, cutting the price, throwing in free games, etc. It'll have to be one mad, mad promotion to actually work. Like, X1 + CoD + Halo for $350 mad.
Click to expand...

If MS do well in Q4 it won't necessarily be one bundle that does it, but a combination of things

- good bundles
- great Black Friday deals
- Halo + sunset + CoD + AC:Unity (exclusives plus co marketing) might add up
- could sony be supply constrained in Q4? They've done crazy well this year so maybe they haven't been able to build up the excess capacity needed for the Q4 bump?
 
O

ocean

Banned
Never participated in one of these threads but I've always lurked and found them very interesting. I'll give it a shot because why the hell not:

[PS4] 425K
[XB1] 300K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 80K
[360] 55K
[PS3] 40K
[PSV] 725 (I kid, I kid)

How I got this number? A patented system of going over your impressions, my own bias on Destiny's effect and a little pulling out of my behind. Let's see how I did in a few days haha :)
 
Duxxy3

Duxxy3

Member
jvm said:
Well, this is going to go well.

Pachter's estimates from this morning:

PS4 = 250K
Wii U = 85K
XB1 = 325K

Unless I'm reading this wrong...
Click to expand...

Basically flipped my XB1 and PS4 numbers. Pachter is delusional if he expects the XB1 to outsell the PS4 in September.

It's that or every person on this board is just horribly wrong.
 
Mikey Jr.

Mikey Jr.

Member
jvm said:
Well, this is going to go well.

Pachter's estimates from this morning:

PS4 = 250K
Wii U = 85K
XB1 = 325K

Unless I'm reading this wrong...
Click to expand...

Huh.

I mean.....uhhh....ok. I guess Pachter has some sort of thought process behind this. I know Pachter is usually wrong, but XB1 beat the PS4 by 75k?
 
O

Orthogonal

Member
It is one thing for Pachter to predict an X1 win, but it is something else entirely to think it would trounce the PS4 by over 50%. Pure delusion or brain dead analysis.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
HalfBaked said:
I don't get how he can predict 2.75m Destiny sales but almost no lift in PS4 sales
Click to expand...



I think he was being serious with this tweet? I mean with those predictions, Pachter is basically saying he believes any sales of the white PS4 Destiny bundle will simply perfectly cannibalize standard PS4 sales and not at all raise the sales which seems nuts
 
B

Birgitte2004

Member
Pachter's numbers are totally bizarre.

How is a not well known promotion(buy an Xbox One get a free game), supposedly going to sell significantly more than months of accumulated pre-orders for the White PS4?
 
L

labaronx

Member
SwiftDeath said:


I think he was being serious with this tweet? I mean with those predictions, Pachter is basically saying he believes any sales of the white PS4 Destiny bundle will simply perfectly cannibalize standard PS4 sales and not at all raise the sales which seems nuts
Click to expand...

Maybr he's trying to save face
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Not related to hardware, but interesting for software.

Recent Major Software Releases on new generation platforms are experiencing as much as 25-30%+ of total SW console sales coming digitally over the the first few weeks.

Used to be single digits as recently as last year (on the old boxes). Something to keep in mind when the % changes for SW get announced. NPD is becoming more and more meaningless every month.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Not related to hardware, but interesting for software.

Recent Major Software Releases on new generation platforms are experiencing as much as 25-30%+ of total SW console sales coming digitally over the the first few weeks.

Used to be single digits as recently as last year. Something to keep in mind when the % changes for SW get announced. NPD is becoming more and more meaningless every month.
Click to expand...

Interesting. I pegged it closer to 15% - 20%. Maybe Driveclub really does have a lot of potential left untapped then
 
A

Abdiel

Member
SwiftDeath said:
I would love to hear Abdiel's take on the XB1 get a free game promotion

On amazon here's what the week for that promotion looked like [ran from Sept. 7th to the 13th]

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-09-08/videogames/?tag=viglink20241-20#1

#6 - PS4 Destiny Bundle
#15 - Standard PS4
#17 - Kinectless XB1

and remember that pre-orders for consoles count towards the month pre-ordered in, not the month of release so all PS4 Destiny Bundles pre-ordered prior to this particular week in September aren't counted.

Amazon's XB1 offer was also somewhat more compelling than other retailers as they included Destiny in theirs where many other retailers did not.

And sure Amazon isn't some perfect measure of the market but I just don't see any behavior indicative of a trouncing of the PS4 in September by the XB1 as Pachter predicts
Click to expand...

I scratched my head at his predictions. The free games promotion helped push the sales a bit, but as I said, it didn't overcome the ps4 at all. Not really close, either. We saw a pronounced difference in favor of Sony. The white model, and then the following word of mouth from people getting others to play with them, was pretty impressive.

The Xbox promotion just helped keep their pace a bit more consistent, more aggressive. Destiny was selling better for ps4, even standalone, but that didn't mean that the XB1 was sucking. It did really well, just... Not nearly as well as the ps4.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Abdiel said:
I scratched my head at his predictions. The free games promotion helped push the sales a bit, but as I said, it didn't overcome the ps4 at all. Not really close, either. We saw a pronounced difference in favor of Sony. The white model, and then the following word of mouth from people getting others to play with them, was pretty impressive.

The Xbox promotion just helped keep their pace a bit more consistent, more aggressive. Destiny was selling better for ps4, even standalone, but that didn't mean that the XB1 was sucking. It did really well, just... Not nearly as well as the ps4.
Click to expand...

Thanks buddy. I thought as much. XB1 should do well this month but a new color hardware plus bundled game should really have an impact especially with the way interest has seemed for it thus far.

theprodigy said:
I'm curious, will Smash 3DS and Wii U be combined later on? I'm assuming not, but just to make sure.
Click to expand...

That's an interesting question. Has there been any comparable examples? And I assume you're talking about in the Top 10 Software SKUs charts by NPD right?

The most recent comparable example I can think of is Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD released march of this year

vjumf7S.jpg


Which combined PS3 and PSV sales for the Top 10 SKU list. I would guess yes then

Wait I wonder if the naming convention for the games will make NPD track them separately? It didn't for TLOU remaster but I dunno
 
C

Chocolate & Vanilla

Fuck Strawberry
SwiftDeath said:


I think he was being serious with this tweet? I mean with those predictions, Pachter is basically saying he believes any sales of the white PS4 Destiny bundle will simply perfectly cannibalize standard PS4 sales and not at all raise the sales which seems nuts
Click to expand...

It's totally at odds with Abdiel's report that there was little drop off in the standard PS4 sku.

AstroNut325 said:
Maybe he thinks the majority of the sales will be on previous gen?
Click to expand...

Evidence from the launch of other major new IP shows that would be extremely unlikely.


Edit: stupid phone posting before I'm done....


I do wonder what his sample size and demographic is to have come up with this prediction.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
SwiftDeath said:
That's an interesting question. Has there been any comparable examples? And I assume you're talking about in the Top 10 Software SKUs charts by NPD right?

The most recent comparable example I can think of is Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD released march of this year

vjumf7S.jpg


Which combined PS3 and PSV sales for the Top 10 SKU list. I would guess yes then

Wait I wonder if the naming convention for the games will make NPD track them separately? It didn't for TLOU remaster but I dunno
Click to expand...

I was thinking Pokemon versions was the more likely comparison, as opposed to remasters/ports such as The Last of Us, Donkey Kong Country Returns, etc.

idk though

(why aren't the Pokemon versions combined though, seriously)
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
theprodigy said:
I was thinking Pokemon versions was the more likely comparison, as opposed to remasters/ports such as The Last of Us, Donkey Kong Country Returns, etc.

idk though
Click to expand...

Hmm I guess the idea is whether or not NPD classifies them as fundamentally different games. I'm going to predict they get combined when Wii U version releases but I'll be happy to be wrong
 
T

theprodigy

Member
guys guys

Pachter is talking about XB1>non-PS4 Destiny bundles obviously ( ͝° ͜ʖ͡°)


(no really I have no idea what he's talking about lol)
 
A

ascii42

Member
theprodigy said:
I'm curious, will Smash 3DS and Wii U be combined later on? I'm assuming not, but just to make sure.
Click to expand...

Donkey Kong Returns Wii and 3DS were combined, so it is possible. They do have different titles that indicate their platforms, but then again so does Minecraft, and that is combined.
 
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