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March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

ZhugeEX

Banned
Man...the PS3 fell off a cliff really fast in the US.

Yep, PS3 never really took off in the USA, where as the PS1 had a 62% share in the USA and the PS2 ad a 64% share. The PS3 has only been able to muster up a 24% share in the USA.

The PS3 was held back due to the high launch price, not to mention that the Xbox 360 launched a year ahead and the Nintendo Wii was seen as the buy now console. That's why the PS3 never had a peak that matched PS2/PS1 sales despite the overall console install base growing significantly.

Worldwide the PS3 was able to turn it around quite well. I wouldn't say the PS3 was a failure in the US though as it managed to gain a big enough install base on the back of the PlayStation brand and games and thats led to successful PlayStation 4 sales in the country.

So, in 2014 PS4 has sold better than PS3 managed even in its best years [in the US]. Interesting.

It is also sad that PS3 sold so poorly in 2013. In that year Sony released IMO too much awesome 1st party exclusives for that system [GOW:A, TLOU, Beyond, GT6 and Puppeteer, MS had jack shit for x360 [Gears Judgement]]. But moving some of them to PS4 would not have increased PS4 sales I think. Console was sold out regardless of games.

The PS4 has exploded onto the market in the USA due to the long period since a last console launch. It's already solidified itself as the market leader this generation and that will allow it to considerably outsell the PS3 in the same time frame as the strong competition and pricing issue isn't there for the PS4 this time as it was with the PS3.

What's the prediction of USA PS4 sales in 2015? 6-7mil if the $50 pricedrop comes before holidays? 6mil without pricedrop [but with bundled games]?

I would say over 6 million makes sense.
 

Conduit

Banned
I see. This is in line with what I've been seeing on the Amazon hourly charts for the past few days. The Halo MCC bundle effectively replacing the AC bundle. Now it all makes sense. Thanks a lot for the info, Abdiel.

True! But slowly as it seems.
 

Javin98

Banned
True! But slowly as it seems.
Well, the Halo MCC bundle is hovering somewhere around #20's-#30's. So if anything, it may actually be doing better than what the AC bundle was doing at the end of March. But we have to remember that Amazon charts are not accurate for predicting sales.
 
I know it's a bit early to ask RetailGaf, but how are the pre-orders on XBO MKX?

It's just weird that I keep seeing the PS4 version top on Amazon daily and monthly charts but nothing on the XBO version.
 

Loris146

Member
I know it's a bit early to ask RetailGaf, but how are the pre-orders on XBO MKX?

It's just weird that I keep seeing the PS4 version top on Amazon daily and monthly charts but nothing on the XBO version.

I think it's a bug because standard xbox one version is not even listed in the best seller chart.
 

Dynomutt

Member
Yeah KI deserves it. Its just going to be really difficult with 0 appeal to the Asian continents.


If it deserves it, it will get it. Street Fighter is now a "culture". That's takes decades to establish. Only time will tell for KI.

Still waiting on Tekken. Have a feeling Sony is trying to do something with Soulcaliber. Also where is SNK....
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Can anyone check the below. I'm confident that all numbers are correct however I'm unsure about PlayStation One sales after 2000.

20%20NPD_zpsdaojpn5o.jpg
 

Abdiel

Member
Can anyone check the below. I'm confident that all numbers are correct however I'm unsure about PlayStation One sales after 2000.

20%20NPD_zpsdaojpn5o.jpg

Wasn't the gap after the holidays between the PS4 and XB1 600k? Shouldn't it be higher than that after the last few months?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
If you read the chart those LTD sales only count up to the end of 2014, there's nothing from 2015 on there.

Correct, just 20 years of sales from 1995-2014.

I request that no one save a copy of this image yet as this is a preliminary version which I'm sure contains a few errors. I will update this with a newer version which should fix errors with original PlayStation and Nintendo 64 numbers.
 

Conduit

Banned
Well, the Halo MCC bundle is hovering somewhere around #20's-#30's. So if anything, it may actually be doing better than what the AC bundle was doing at the end of March. But we have to remember that Amazon charts are not accurate for predicting sales.

Well, looks like AC bundle and MCC bundle are neck and neck on Amazon.com hourly chart.

C'mon, AC bundle! You can do it.:p

A little bit above 600k

I think now it will be around 700k.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Gap as of December: 500k

Gap as of January: 540k

Gap as of February: 600k

All rounded.

Nah man. I'm pretty sure your numbers are off. I remember it being widely accepted that the gap was 600k following the holidays. Ill go back and try to find some posts to confirm.
 

Welfare

Member
Nah man. I'm pretty sure your numbers are off. I remember it being widely accepted that the gap was 600k following the holidays. Ill go back and try to find some posts to confirm.

Look at Zhuges graph. Gap is 500k after the holidays.
 

DC1

Member
Maybe I'm not getting the whole picture here but wouldn't a simple solution be to...stop leaking at that point? I don't understand, NPD numbers get released eventually no? I would assume not wanting to piss off your professional place of employment takes precedence over posting on GAF?

In any case I do miss Aqua's posts.

Stating the obvious here?
Fyi, your statement comes across pretty snooty.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I keep forgetting this, but what is the gap between the two now?

Nah man. I'm pretty sure your numbers are off. I remember it being widely accepted that the gap was 600k following the holidays. Ill go back and try to find some posts to confirm.

Look at Zhuges graph. Gap is 500k after the holidays.

~500k -Gap as of Jan 3rd 2015
~540k -Gap as of Jan 31st 2015
~605k -Gap as of Feb 28th 2015

*Numbers are rounded up to nearest 5k.

NPD%20CUMULATIVE_zpsgjddhbob.jpg


NPD%20Month_zps2gmuevcd.jpg


Wait what?

He thinks I make stuff up.... sad really.
 

Welfare

Member
Is there something going on with the other versions of MKX? Amazon doesn't even list the position of the standard XB1, PS3, and 360 versions.

The XB1 Coarse Edition is #201, Premium Edition is #156, and the digital code is #303

What is happening?
 
Is there something going on with the other versions of MKX? Amazon doesn't even list the position of the XB1, PS3, and 360 versions.

The digital code of the XB1 version is #303 while the PS4 version is #370

What is happening?

Most logical conclusion would be, that a bug is tracking every physical version as the PS4 version. Cause even Germany has the XB1 version at 54.
 
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