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March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

Bgamer90

Banned
I forgot about the free three months of Sling TV that Microsoft had in their stores last month for the Xbox One. Could see it helping sales a bit but not that much (especially since it was only for a week).
 

chadskin

Member
No, it's Patrick.

5500067_orig.jpg
 
I once thought PS4 could hit 22 million this year. I am now firmly in that camp and think it could go as high as 25 million sold this year if this deal ends up being for real and they have a big marketing campaign with bundles and all that jazz. Forget about it.

Isn't the PS4 close to 20 mil sold WW already? I think 25 mil would be conservative and could see them selling as high as 30 mil WW by the years end.
 

Welfare

Member
I see, thanks for explaining. But when BO3 is cross gen, theoretically a current gen only game in roundabout the same ballpark as BO3 is more valuable for a manufacturer who wants to sell his new consoles. Right?

Yes as Black Ops 3 being on the 7th gen makes people lag even further behind on purchasing a next gen system.

Sony are making the right moves.
 
People seem to be underestimating the Star Wars hype. This movie will probably rival Avengers 2 at do 2 billion at box office.

This game will sell amazing.
 

Boke1879

Member
Huh? Millions of consoles? Even with Destiny hype didn't it only sell like 400k bundles in the September NPD?

I'm talking about just the game alone.

But them launching the game the week before Black Friday. Consoles are going to sell big anyway. This just adds another push if it's bundled. Also the PS4 sold like 527k that september. That's a Halo-like push for Consoles.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I once thought PS4 could hit 22 million this year. I am now firmly in that camp and think it could go as high as 25 million sold this year if this deal ends up being for real and they have a big marketing campaign with bundles and all that jazz. Forget about it.

Really?

It's not going to sell that much.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
In a year without a Halo release, you may see Microsoft try to get another shooter like Star Wars Battlefront.

Not in a year with Halo though.

Agreed.

Having to manage the push/marketing for Halo, COD, and Battlefront would be crazy as all three are shooters releasing within around two weeks from each other.

I could see MS giving a free month of EA Access in October alongside Xbox Ones to try and help depending on how Sony pushes Battlefront -- guess we'll see in a few months.

__________________

I don't think The Division will come this year.

I don't think so either -- especially with Rainbow Six coming in the Fall.
 
Huh? Millions of consoles? Even with Destiny hype didn't it only sell like 400k bundles in the September NPD?

All the kids that sneaked into the first (I mean, fourth) Star Wars movie once are now husbands and fathers who had not found a well-enough reason to spend urgently-needed family budget on a new console.
Now they will do everything to make this happen.
 

SDCowboy

Member
People seem to be underestimating the Star Wars hype. This movie will probably rival Avengers 2 at do 2 billion at box office.

This game will sell amazing.

I don't see why it wouldn't surpass it. Star Wars is arguably the biggest IP on the planet. Much bigger than anything Marvel related and Marvel is huge. SW is just on a different...planet. :p
 

RoKKeR

Member
Agreed. I think it's going to be the biggest movie of the year honestly. Disney Wins.

It's hard to imagine how much money Disney will be raking in this year. It's absolutely ridiculous.

Also I've never seen so many people excited about a marketing deal. lol
 
I don't see why it wouldn't surpass it. Star Wars is arguably the biggest IP on the planet. Much bigger than anything Marvel related and Marvel is huge. SW is just on a different...planet. :p

Well I did say rival lol. It just might top it. In fact this year we will be seeing so many records being broken at box office, it'll be nuts. It already started with Furious 7.

This game will beat out Halo 5 easily. 1 platform vs (3 platforms + one of the biggest movies of the year, return of form of a franchise, sequel to the 80s classic).

I'm not even a star wars fan and I see this being huge.
 
Oh you people... Star wars hype lol, are we in 1980? Battlefront will not sell like halo or cod.

Battlefront is going to certainly have some resemblance to Battlefield.

If you like Battlefield, you're going to get this game. It's going to do BF3 BF4 numbers + the Star Wars base.

It's going to get a marketing push the likes we haven't seen in awhile. This game is going to easily top 10 million sold.
 
It's fair to assume PS4 will win big this NPD, but I think the gap between it and XB1 has been even bigger this month so far. Like double going by Amazon trends.
 

Boke1879

Member
It's hard to imagine how much money Disney will be raking in this year. It's absolutely ridiculous.

Also I've never seen so many people excited about a marketing deal. lol

That's just console war BS. I think people are screaming about it because it gives Sony a huge advantage this holiday if it comes to fruition.
 

SDCowboy

Member
Not vs. Star Wars brand as a whole.

True, but in the gaming world, COD is king. Of course Star Wars as an IP bigger. There's probably nothing bigger in terms of IP. In terms of games though, I would be surprised is COD didn't outsell Halo and SWBF combined.
 
Ah that makes more sense. I doubt they'll sell over 20 mil in 12 months though. Maybe with a price cut and heavy marketing for Batman, MGSV and Battlefront.

Price Cut
Batman marketing + SKU's
MGSV Marketing + SKUs
Battlefront Marketing + SKUs
Persona 5 / No Mans Sky / Ratchet and Clank over the holidays along with the third party stuff

With all the games hitting over the summer and fall I don't think sales will drop all that much during the summer " drought " ( which won't be much of a drought really ).

They did 18.5 last year. With standard YTY increases WW and all of the above mentioned. Could be a big year.

Maybe 25 is a bit much. But I'm in the 22-23 camp at this point. Think they will be able to hit that mark.
 

Loakum

Banned
Beside the twitter pic (which may or may not be official), MS has a big partnership with Activision and COD in November (traditionally COD releases within the first 2 weeks afaik?).

Battlefront releases on November 17th, and Halo 5 on October 27th.

You really think that MS (but particularly EA) has any interest in having a marketing deal with the 3rd FPS competitor in the same 3-4 week window, when Sony would give it a full push for the whole month?

Not that it's any guarantee at all, but beside the rumors, it also makes the most sense tbh, given that the (likely) calendar might look like:

Oct. 27th: Halo 5 (MS)
Nov. 3rd or 10th: COD Black Opps III (MS)
Nov 17th: Battlefront (Sony?)

Somewhere in that month we'll probably also see Rise of the Tomb Raider (MS) and the new Ass Creed (Sony?).

I can see this being very possible, but Assassin's Creed Victory REALLY has to impress the hell out of folks, after the brand disaster known as Assassin's Creed Unity.
 

Xenus

Member
MS has the marketing for AC, the Division and most likely Rainbow Six. There's no spreading love this year.

Sony spent their entire wad on Star Wars this go around?

Either way I'm imagining Destiny level hype + Star wars movie hype - $$$$$$$$$$ for all involved

Coupled with a potential price drop this year + Black Friday. It could be scary
 
True, but in the gaming world, COD is king. Of course Star Wars as an IP bigger. There's probably nothing bigger in terms of IP.

The thing is that SW: Battlefront is going to get a HUGE hype push because of the SW Movie coming out this year. I mean, it could honestly go either way, but to deny that SW is huge, SW Battlefront is a SW game AND SW is going to be bigger than ever *this* year... it's just one Ewok short of crazy.
Or how about something understated like that? (sorry for the bad shop, did that quick & dirty)

whiteps4.jpg
I like it but it may be too subtle for some. Perhaps have two editions (Rebel vs Empire)?
Could have a Sith and Jedi version of the console. One side is white with Green/Blue LED, the other is Black with Red LED
There you go. That sounds better.

Also have lightsaber sounds when it boots.
 
Or how about something understated like that? (sorry for the bad shop, did that quick & dirty)

whiteps4.jpg

they could make a CE that shapes the middle LED to look like a lightsaber turning on whenever the system is turned on. Then set the middle LED to green or red.

Could have a Sith and Jedi version of the console. One side is white with Green/Blue LED, the other is Black with Red LED
 

chadskin

Member
MS has the marketing for AC, the Division and most likely Rainbow Six. There's no spreading love this year.

receipts.gif

Sony had ACIV the year before and with how stuffed MS's lineup is this year, Ubisoft might want to side with Sony this time. And I can see Rainbow Six going to Sony, too. One indication could be that the official site and press releases always mention "PS4, Xbox One and PC" in that order while it's "Xbox One, PS4, PC" for The Division.
 
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