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[Chobel]

We don't know what the digital sales were though

Don't think digital sales are gonna change anything here, digital sells usually 20%-30% of what retail sells, so 22K-33K for RR digital.

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

We don't know what the digital sales were though

Okay, add a ridiculous 50% extra for digital sales just to be sure, it's not going to change much. I think we'll get some HD remakes of the most-played games in the collection (Blast Corps. please) but I don't think Rare are going to be given much to work with - unless Sea of Thieves does ridiculous numbers.

 

[watdaeff4]

Okay, add a ridiculous 50% extra for digital sales just to be sure, it's not going to change much. I think we'll get some HD remakes of the most-played games in the collection (Blast Corps. please) but I don't think Rare are going to be given much to work with - unless Sea of Thieves does ridiculous numbers.

Don't think digital sales are gonna change anything here, digital sells usually 20%-30% of what retail sells, so 22K-33K for RR digital.

Good points.

 

[RespectThySole]

Okay, add a ridiculous 50% extra for digital sales just to be sure, it's not going to change much.

No way it's anywhere near that ratio. Rare Replay probably has less digital sales than you'd expect. The top selling digital games right now according to the Xbox store are:

1. Gears of War
2. Madden
3. MGSV
...

12. Rare Replay

 

[Omnistalgic]

Agreed, it's amazing that the PS4 is selling as well as it is at launch price. A price drop to $299 will be massive for sales and I can see Sony keeping the base model at that price until 2017. And like you said, the big exclusives haven't even hit the PS4 yet. I also think the PS4 will hit 100 million by 2019, but Zhuge has clarified many times that this is not his final predictions as things can be very unpredictable. The Morpheus could be a huge success and boost PS4 sales significantly more than anyone expected. On the other hand, the NX, whatever it is, could be a huge success and potentially eat into the PS4 audience. It's impossible to tell now, really. But next year, things will be more predictable.

Yah, it'll be interesting (yeah I said it) next year once the big three play their cards for the whole gen a little better. And not interesting for the sake of estimating but as you said, predicting things with all the cards played is just easier. We'll have NX, PS4 and X1 at mass market prices, Morpheus and MS AR, and the studio's biggest titles releasing or at least unveiled. I'm actually not that interesting in this year tbh. It's the celebration of the third parties I care least about.

I can't see any of the games you mentioned to expand the audience. All of them are games that interest core gamers who probably already own a PS4 or Xbox One.

I haven't seen anybody say "I'm gonna buy a console when SFV/UC4/GT7/FF15 hits, because that's the game I've been waiting for".

Then you must only pay attention to what enthusiast like us talk about, because there are absolutely gamers that don't buy their next platform until a brand new, graphically amazing Gran Turismo comes out or simply a universally praised, new graphical benchmark that's pegged as the next leap in gaming. (UC4 potentially) Graphics and price are still a big draw for a lot of people that haven't upgraded. And at $400 and $350 these consoles are still not mass market priced products, people do not spend the same amount of money on gaming consoles as they do phones or tablets which are considered everyday must-have items. SFV has a chance to grow the tournament scene and it being exclusively on PS for consoles are guaranteed to move units, and again, this could potential be a jump in point for people after the price drops further. That really applies to all 4 games I mention, especially for titles like FF15 or DQ11 where the Japanese market are still waiting to really jump in.

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

No way it's anywhere near that ratio. Rare Replay probably has less digital sales than you'd expect. The top selling digital games right now according to the Xbox store are:

1. Gears of War
2. Madden
3. MGSV
...

12. Rare Replay

Yeah, I know. I exaggerated the figure on purpose for a best-case-scenario. The collection is incredible, but as a litmus-test for whether new, and big budget games from Rare are viable, or desired, it's telling.

Liken it to the Shenmue kickstarter as a cheapish way of gauging fan potential to buy in, and whether it's worth pursuing financially.

 

[blakep267]

No way it's anywhere near that ratio. Rare Replay probably has less digital sales than you'd expect. The top selling digital games right now according to the Xbox store are:

1. Gears of War
2. Madden
3. MGSV
...

12. Rare Replay

Rare replay was top of the charts for a few weeks when it released. It's been ou for a month so of course it'll be lower

Also note that this is the second week that gears has been #1 digital. Beating madden on release date and MGS. So either people aren't buying madden digital or GOW has good digital numbers

 

[watdaeff4]

Rare replay was top of the charts for a few weeks when it released. It's been ou for a month so of course it'll be lower

Also note that this is the second week that gears has been #1 digital. Beating madden on release date and MGS. So either people aren't buying madden digital or GOW has good digital numbers

I would imagine that Madden has a lower digital ratio than other games, esp when there is a new version every year and if you time it right the trade-in values aren't bad (trading in early to Gamestop, or likely $30 at Best Buy when Madden 17 releases if they follow suit from the last couple of years)

Also, just spitballing, but I wonder if there is any confusion amongst some consumers that in order to get the other Gears games, you had to buy the remastered version digitally? Likely not a factor, but you never know with the common consumer (coming from one who has made dumb mistakes in the past)

 

[Amentallica]

Well, that's not really how it works tbh.

It's more about their situation now. Not about recouping losses from years back.

I'm not saying it's about recouping losses from years ago. I'm saying it's about having a different perspective, one that they have for the first time since the PS1 and PS2 were rising successes, and the PS3 was when they hit a major bump. Now followed with the PS4 and it's a position they'd never been in before, coming off of what they might consider their worst console (PS3).

 

[Brewmont]

If they were relying on it to gauge a very vocal fanbase's desire to put their money were their mouths are, and then use that to decide whether to fund big new Rare projects, then it is hardly a resounding endorsement.

Cheap or not, it has put a marker down to help MS make the decision whether or not to fund new Rare material.

It's a good point, but just because interest isn't expressed in a game that is catered toward a very specific audience, does not at all mean there isn't interest to be had in a new IP from any given studio.

 

[allan-bh]

Would be nice to know if Madden 16 sold better than Madden 15 last year and platforms split.

 

[Opiate]

PS4 at 36M+ at end of 2015?
And your not seeing any "tail off" in demand for PS4?

Think of it a differently: he's predicting a total of ~150 million console sales worldwide through 2019, which will be near the end of the generation. That's a massive drop off compared to last gen, which had sold ~240 million in the same time frame.

If zhuge predicted 80 million ps4 sales instead of 95, he would nearly be predicting the collapse of the console market.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Think of it a differently: he's predicting a total of ~150 million console sales worldwide through 2019, which will be near the end of the generation. That's a massive drop off compared to last gen, which had sold ~240 million in the same time frame.

If zhuge predicted 80 million ps4 sales instead of 95, he would nearly be predicting the collapse of the console market.

THIS.

YouTube and streaming can cost a pretty penny tho

I think people think you're kidding. But yeah, influencer campaigns are getting to be as expensive as tv campaigns used to be.

If a game like this sells 2 million lifetime sales. I'd say that's pretty good.

So <100k in launch month in US packaged now extrapolates to 2 million? That's far too extreme. No, it's really 1m lifetime WW packaged & digital best case. An extreme high case would be about 1.2-1.3m.

Wish there was a monthly place to actually discuss world-wide trends.

Get us a decent WW data source and we could. Until then...

 

[Jigorath]

as jeff gerstmann pointed out, that could come down to a lot of things--it could've been a bidding war where sony was just willing to put more on the line or it could've just been that xbox decided that with the decline the franchise has seen it wouldn't have been worth it to pay big money for something that gives less and less returns to the brand.

keep in mind, sony picked up cod and battlefront, sure, but ms picked up fallout 4, has a year long timed exclusivity on rottr (that would not remotely have been cheap), and kept fifa and madden.

Sony got marketing deals for Battlefront (probably the most expensive one of the year), Destiny, COD, Disney Infinity, Assassin's Creed, Batman, Mortal Kombat, Hitman, and whatever else I'm forgetting. Not to mention moneyhatting SFV and FFVII remake. Microsoft is making way less 3rd party deals then they were last generation. The Xbox division ain't running wild with cash like they were in the Ballmer era, Nadella has been cracking down on them.

Though it's a blessing in disguise as it gives Microsoft more reason to promote and focus on their first party content.

So <100k in launch month in US packaged now extrapolates to 2 million? That's far too extreme. No, it's really 1m lifetime WW packaged & digital best case. An extreme high case would be about 1.2-1.3m.

It'll probably be bundled too. The solid reviews and not great sales makes it an easy pick to thrown in as a pack in to increase value.

 

[Loudninja]

THIS.



So <100k in launch month in US packaged now extrapolates to 2 million? That's far too extreme. No, it's really 1m lifetime WW packaged & digital best case. An extreme high case would be about 1.2-1.3m.



Get us a decent WW data source and we could. Until then...

Driveclub did it.That was even less too.

Not saying I am expecting it at all though.

 

[allan-bh]

Having only an NPD thread every month is boring, and the constant corrections of "This is NPD, of course I'm talking only about U.S"Wish there was a monthly place to actually discuss world-wide trends.

Unfortunately there's almost zero data for discuss worldwide sales. Even to talk about NPD the lack of public data is hurting the debate.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Driveclub did it.That was even less too.

Not saying I am expecting it at all though.

Yeah, not sure that's the best benchmark case for a reasonable projection.

It'll probably be bundled too. The solid reviews and not great sales makes it an easy pick to thrown in as a pack in to increase value.

It is a perfect PS+ game at some point too. But you can't assume that to be the case, especially when you're considering average selling price.

 

[allan-bh]

Driveclub did it.

That was even less too.

I don't think Until Dawn will be sold in bundles, doesn't have the same appeal that a racing game.

 

[Loudninja]

I don't think Until Dawn will be sold in bundles, doesn't have the same appeal that a racing game.

Not bundle yet atleast,

But yeah you are right it does not have the same appeal as racers.

 

[Opiate]

Solid predictions I think this is how the gen ends up as well, but you'll have to throw in NX later on. Also, I think PS4 will cross the 100 million point. It's approaching 35 - 40 million at a somewhat "high" price-point for what people like to spend on video-game consoles. I think Sony's software has a broader appeal than MS's worldwide, and a $300 and $250 PS4 will go places X1 won't even be mentioned. Good example, next year, SFV, UC4, GT7, FF15 are all huge potential sellers for PS4, and all target very different segments of the video game market.

I don't think this is incompatible with zhuges prediction. He's predicting the ps4 likely will hit 100m, but only in the tail end of the generation when people are ready for something new and/or the new systems have launched. The wii did this, for instance.

So his prediction is about 150 million systems sold combined by the end of 2019, but perhaps 170 or 180 million when all systems have completely stopped selling, with the vast bulk of those last 20-30 million going to the winner of the generation, the ps4.

 

[Sez]

I can't see any of the games you mentioned to expand the audience. All of them are games that interest core gamers who probably already own a PS4 or Xbox One.

I haven't seen anybody say "I'm gonna buy a console when SFV/UC4/GT7/FF15 hits, because that's the game I've been waiting for".

I said that in other threads. I bought a PS2 for GT3, a PS3 GT5 bundle and I was waiting until next one. It's my favourite game and a good game to justify spending hundreds of dollars.

I didn't wait, because there last 3 months there have been insane deals in México and I managed to get one brand new very cheap, and with the dollar going crazy, next year do not look good, so I saw a chance and took it.

 

[watdaeff4]

LOL! So much salt for Until Dawn.

Guys, Until Dawn sold great WW. If the game is undershipped, there is demand for it.

Is it "salt" or people just skeptical of the claim it's already hit 1M in sales WW that was thrown out there? Esp due to the USA + Japan reported numbers being <110K

 

[Javin98]

Yah, it'll be interesting (yeah I said it) next year once the big three play their cards for the whole gen a little better. And not interesting for the sake of estimating but as you said, predicting things with all the cards played is just easier. We'll have NX, PS4 and X1 at mass market prices, Morpheus and MS AR, and the studio's biggest titles releasing or at least unveiled. I'm actually not that interesting in this year tbh. It's the celebration of the third parties I care least about.

Honestly, the NX is the biggest mystery here because we don't even have a clue of what it is or what Nintendo has planned for it. It could be as successful as the Wii or sell as bad as the Wii U. Frankly, I don't know which one is more likely. For Morpheus, we know a lot about it and how Sony can use it to drive sales of the PS4. The most important thing Sony has to do is convince the mass market, even casual gamers that the best VR experience is on the PS4. Of course it won't be that easy, but I'm just simplifying it.

 

[allan-bh]

Honestly, the NX is the biggest mystery here because we don't even have a clue of what it is or what Nintendo has planned for it. It could be as successful as the Wii or sell as bad as the Wii U. Frankly, I don't know which one is more likely. For Morpheus, we know a lot about it and how Sony can use it to drive sales of the PS4. The most important thing Sony has to do is convince the mass market, even casual gamers that the best VR experience is on the PS4. Of course it won't be that easy, but I'm just simplifying it.

Mass market and VR simply doesn't fit. This will be a niche feature.

 

[Javin98]

Mass market and VR simply doesn't fit. This will be a niche feature.

Yeah, maybe. I don't know, I just think some casuals may find VR cool and jump on board. Just my two cents though.

 

[Boke1879]

THIS.



I think people think you're kidding. But yeah, influencer campaigns are getting to be as expensive as tv campaigns used to be.



So <100k in launch month in US packaged now extrapolates to 2 million? That's far too extreme. No, it's really 1m lifetime WW packaged & digital best case. An extreme high case would be about 1.2-1.3m.



Get us a decent WW data source and we could. Until then...

Just an optimistic guess on my part. Positive word of mouth could do wonder and a decent sale on the game could really help.

Overall though. I see Sony managing to bundle this in with certain games this fall.

 

[allan-bh]

Yeah, maybe. I don't know, I just think some casuals may find VR cool and jump on board. Just my two cents though.

If a PS4 and a VR costs $299, sure. But will not...

 

[theprodigy]

PAL region is a biiig region. So, if some game is high on charts for longer period of time ( let's say 1 month ) i presume that game is selling well, even if you don't have numbers!. You must take the note that UD is undershipped and game is still charting.

"still charting"? it's been two weeks man

 

[Javin98]

If a PS4 and a VR costs $299, sure. But will not...

LOL, that is an awesome deal that we will only see at the end of the generation. The best we can hope for next year is PS4 and Morpheus for $449. To clarify, I think Morpheus will be quite successful, but won't sell nearly as well as Kinect on 360.

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

Yeah, I know. I exaggerated the figure on purpose for a best-case-scenario. The collection is incredible, but as a litmus-test for whether new, and big budget games from Rare are viable, or desired, it's telling.

Liken it to the Shenmue kickstarter as a cheapish way of gauging fan potential to buy in, and whether it's worth pursuing financially.

I just can't see RR being some kind of test for MS to see whether to finance other Rare projects. It just don't make sense what you are suggesting.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Think of it a differently: he's predicting a total of ~150 million console sales worldwide through 2019, which will be near the end of the generation. That's a massive drop off compared to last gen, which had sold ~240 million in the same time frame.

If zhuge predicted 80 million ps4 sales instead of 95, he would nearly be predicting the collapse of the console market.

Correct. I've been banging on about total generation sales for a while and how 150m by end of 2019 would be a likely situation and not 200m+ like some market research firms like DFC & Wedbush were predicting. Some may say my estimates are conservative but rather I would say that's realistic given the state of the games industry.

None of the consoles this generation have a killer app to drive mass market adoption that can't be found through other more convenient/cheaper solutions. Also the games market is no longer just about console as it was say a decade ago.

I wrote a report on the future of console a while back which I still think is applicable, I'll see if I can find it and repost it here.

Get us a decent WW data source and we could. Until then...

Time for the return of Chartz?

I don't think this is incompatible with zhuges prediction. He's predicting the ps4 likely will hit 100m, but only in the tail end of the generation when people are ready for something new and/or the new systems have launched. The wii did this, for instance.

So his prediction is about 150 million systems sold combined by the end of 2019, but perhaps 170 or 180 million when all systems have completely stopped selling, with the vast bulk of those last 20-30 million going to the winner of the generation, the ps4.

Yeh, it's worth noting that my forecast ends at the end of 2019. I have other forecasts for 2015 which I believe are accurate wherre as this one is could change due to any number of reasons. Remember that the further a forecast predicts, the less accurate it can be.

Yeah, maybe. I don't know, I just think some casuals may find VR cool and jump on board. Just my two cents though.

I'm not really commenting on VR at this point until we hear more from Sony regarding launch date and price. Some market research firms are already betting that ALL VR headset shipments will account for between 11m-14m units in 2016 where as I would be a tad more conservative on that number at the moment.

Based on everything I've seen of Morpheus I would expect it to sell more like the PlayStation EyeToy for PS2 did in 2003-2005, than the Kinect did for Xbox 360 in 2010-2012.

But like I said, I need more info before actually seeing how Morpheus would perform.

 

[Javin98]

I'm not really commenting on VR at this point until we hear more from Sony regarding launch date and price. Some market research firms are already betting that ALL VR headset shipments will account for between 11m-14m units in 2016 where as I would be a tad more conservative on that number at the moment.

Based on everything I've seen of Morpheus I would expect it to sell more like the PlayStation EyeToy for PS2 did in 2003-2005, than the Kinect did for Xbox 360 in 2010-2012.

But like I said, I need more info before actually seeing how Morpheus would perform.

Yeah, unless we get more info about the price, there's no telling how well or bad the VR devices will do. Also, 11-14 million units seems very generous. 9-10 million seems more likely and reasonable. I expect a vast majority of VR sales to come from Oculus Rift and Project Morpheus, unless there's another VR headset around that has the potential to be a hit which I forgot.

 

[Avatar1]

What's stopping Sony from promoting Until Dawn again, or at least putting it on sale to get it in sale papers, around Halloween to get another bump?

I think this game will have a bit longer legs and will ultimately be a success.

 

[Omnistalgic]

I don't think this is incompatible with zhuges prediction. He's predicting the ps4 likely will hit 100m, but only in the tail end of the generation when people are ready for something new and/or the new systems have launched. The wii did this, for instance.

So his prediction is about 150 million systems sold combined by the end of 2019, but perhaps 170 or 180 million when all systems have completely stopped selling, with the vast bulk of those last 20-30 million going to the winner of the generation, the ps4.

oh gotcha, I agree with that then, I think it'll be tail end before it hits 100 million, I don't see VR being another Wii like craze.

 

[Boke1879]

What's stopping Sony from promoting Until Dawn again, or at least putting it on sale to get it in sale papers, around Halloween to get another bump?

I think this game will have a bit longer legs and will ultimately be a success.

That's what I'm saying. Sony should definitely do another "soft" launch around Halloween with some sort of deal

 

[watdaeff4]

That's what I'm saying. Sony should definitely do another "soft" launch around Halloween with some sort of deal

I hope so, want to play it but can't justify full price right now

 

[Elandyll]

That's what I'm saying. Sony should definitely do another "soft" launch around Halloween with some sort of deal

A special "Halloween Pricing" @ $39.99, plus a few commercials during or around The Walking Dead would totally do it imo.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Think of it a differently: he's predicting a total of ~150 million console sales worldwide through 2019, which will be near the end of the generation. That's a massive drop off compared to last gen, which had sold ~240 million in the same time frame.

If zhuge predicted 80 million ps4 sales instead of 95, he would nearly be predicting the collapse of the console market.

360 and PS3 should end at ~90 million, so, around ~280 million for gen 7... well, 282 million for be correct, because the Wii will end at 102 million. ^^

 

[Ricky_R]

Do we have

Spoiler

numbers

for

Spoiler

Until Dawn?

 

[Conduit]

"still charting"? it's been two weeks man

Hey man, some games drop off from the chart after one week - Roy Mc. Golf for example.

 

[allan-bh]

Do we have

Spoiler

numbers

for

Spoiler

Until Dawn?

Yes,~ 90k.

 

[Boke1879]

I hope so, want to play it but can't justify full price right now

I'm waiting for a sale as MGSV has all my attention right now

 

[Ricky_R]

Yes,~ 90k.

Thanks. That's kinda low even if it only tracked for 5 days.

Wonder if word of mouth helps it chart in September.

 

[Jigorath]

Wonder if word of mouth helps it chart in September.

No chance. Too many new games are coming out in September. UD, Rare Replay, and Gears will all be out of the charts next month.

 

[kswiston]

No chance. Too many new games are coming out in September. UD, Rare Replay, and Gears will all be out of the charts next month.

Looking at the list of releases, Madden and Minecraft are likely to be the only two games to chart again next month.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

So for September I predict
1. MGSV
2. Destiny
3.Mad Max
4.NBA
5.Disney Infinity
6.Mario Maker
7.Fifa
8. GTAV
9.Madden
10.Minecraft
Seems reasonable or no I feel fairly confident with top 5 the other 5 Im not sure.

 

[blakep267]

So Next Month I predict
1. MGSV
2. Destiny
3.Mario Maker
4.Madden
5.Fifa
6.Forza 6
7.GTAV
8. Minecraft
9.COD
10.Gears?

Eh I don't know about Mario maker

It should be

MGS
Madden
Destiny
Disney infinity
FIFA
Mad max
Forza
Nba 2k( just because it'll only have like 1 day of tracking)
Mario maker

Then you have a toss up between minecraft, GTA, Gears, COD

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Eh I don't know about Mario maker

It should be

MGS
Madden
Destiny
Disney infinity
FIFA
Mad max
Forza
Nba 2k( just because it'll only have like 1 day of tracking)
Mario maker

Then you have a toss up between minecraft, GTA, Gears, COD

Forgot about Mad Max. Ill redo my list then.

 

[super6646]

If they were relying on it to gauge a very vocal fanbase's desire to put their money were their mouths are, and then use that to decide whether to fund big new Rare projects, then it is hardly a resounding endorsement.

Cheap or not, it has put a marker down to help MS make the decision whether or not to fund new Rare material.

I'd personally want to see European sales, especially the UK with Rare Replay. Even so, what was everyone expecting?

 

[metalslimer]

So is it time for a price cut on the 3ds?