Bloodborne did 1 mil in around 14 days, right?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Bloodborne did 1 mil in around 14 days, right?
VanCityGamer
Member
Yeah, pretty sure you are correct. It has been a very accurate indicator thus far.
MrPink93485
Member
Wait, does the Rise of the Tomb Raider bundle come out this week? If so, I assume that means we'll see reviews on Monday/Tuesday?
I don't think it is skewed towards any particular console. There are just times where a particular retailer does a fire sale on the XB1s where they give it away cheap with TVs or some other offer. This tends to make it less accurate because it is showing the trend as if the offer in the other retailers didn't exist.
Depends on the embargo, I suppose.
IIRC, the system launches early but I don't think you can play the game until it releases. You can just pre-load it.
I might be wrong, tho.
MrPink93485
Member
Oh, I see, I just assumed it'd be a physical copy but that makes sense. Not used to a bundle being sold before the game actually releases. At least new owners can play the first game while they wait.
Chobel
Member
DriftingSpirit
Member
I think Halo 5 selling well is a given. In fact, I think Halo 5 may have a record attached to it.
Nightengale
Member
I don't doubt that, but not in volume though.
I could see best selling XB1 game (at launch/first week/first month/etc), and XB game with the highest (release window) attach rate, but it's hard to see it beating Halo 4's opening.
Primethius
Banned
Agreed. I think the beta will have helped in this regard.
Maybe tie ratio. No way it breaks any records for straight sales.
Damn. That should be Sony's bundle this Black Friday. I wouldn't even care if they threw in a year subscription to plus or not at that point, I'd just trade FO4 and BF for two extra years anyway, using them only during the years that Treyarch has releases.
Fastest selling xb1 halo in one hour? I'm sure you can find a criteria for a record. The console bundle probably sold a lot too. I think XB1 will very likely take this month because of it regardless of the Amazon standings right now.
3rdamention
Member
However, you are assuming Microsoft DIDN'T pay a lot for this deal, or that this deal is one of "these deals." The details of this Tomb Raider deal are so padlocked up, we will never really know what was paid or what happened.
However, it is very hard for me to believe that Microsoft didn't "give big upfront cash" to keep Tomb Raider, an IP most associate with PlayStation, off of PlayStation for up to a year, Including this Holiday Playoff Season.
Nightengale
Member
The beta was a year ago though?
Maybe EA didn't want to, because a Mass Effect deal would be theoretically cheaper because it's a much smaller franchise, & that game would be much more likely to appeal to the Xbox audience than Tomb Raider.
Those deals are never done with cash payments, the most likely "payment" was MS-paid marketing & lower licensing fees, maybe instead of 30% it's 10% (that percentage is just an example, we don't know the exact percentage), the lower licensing fees could possibly apply to all SE-published titles within a certain window, not necessarily just TR.
Primethius
Banned
I meant in regards to the general sentiment around Halo post Halo 4.
Nightengale
Member
I would attribute that, honestly, more to the post-E3 bombardment of excellent marketing, excellent previews and basically top-notch updates consistently.
Say what you want about Halo 5 at the end of the day, it's been an extremely confident marketing from 343, showcasing sizable amounts of campaign, multiplayer, etc, and a lot of them were pretty good.
I mean, the beta was good, but it didn't blow anyone away per say. Nobody's still raving about the beta weeks after it finished, it just left people less skeptical after the fuck-up called MCC.
MS this generation seem to have a tendency to go for franchises that have lower sales on xbox. FIFA, AC, Tomb Raider, Dragon Age. MS will likely get a lot of people buying ME for xbox because the split last gen was fairly big in favor of 360. I'm not sure what such a deal would have accomplished other than perhaps stopping current 360 owners switching over to PS4. At least those who haven't already. Then again witcher was associated with xbox and it got a lot of PS4 sales so what do I know. I think that with ME MS are happy just offering BC and perhaps some method to transfer past progress or choices. Sony are happy to offer ME2 on PS+ to hopefully increase their split when ME PS4 releases.
Well at Gamestop we have the Fallout 4 Bundle already and we also have a couple of the holiday bundles and some other stuff as well, that i should be able to talk about soon, no promises however i will say that my Other coworker is on the lookout for black friday ads at my gamestop
Primethius
Banned
I suppose you're right. I was attributing it more to the hardcore base that abandoned Halo 4 fairly quickly after launch but was still pretty excited for 5 due to the beta.
It's going to be very difficult to money hat anything when your competition is outselling you almost 2:1
I don't think S-E gave up a significant part of PS4 sales (because after 12 months this game will sell much less in PS4 that would now) to be vulnerable at how much Microsoft want to spend on marketing.
Per contract Microsoft must have some compromise about the level of marketing, or paid a big money upfront.
A 1 position PS4 victory in Amazon rankings in October means an XB1 victory in Amazon considering the Halo bundle's August pre-sales. And what that really means is that whichever one wins, Amazon will still come out as the "golden predictor" for rankings. It'll just be spun different ways. (~_^)
"PS4 beat XB1 in October rankings, so that shows Amazon was right again!"
"XB1 beat PS4 when you add in August presales, so that shows Amazon was right again!"
"PS4 beat XB1 in October rankings, so that shows Amazon was right again!"
"XB1 beat PS4 when you add in August presales, so that shows Amazon was right again!"
Someone said their is one last update though.
Bear Force One
Banned
This thread shows it is not that simple. Halo is not what Halo was.
I was honestly surprised that Halo 5 isn't that high up on twitch, the real test for Halo will be when COD and battlefront come out and how it effects its online population.
I think isn't so strong as it was in Halo 3 era, but still is a huge game.
Very few games can sell in one platform what Halo 5 will sell and obviously this is a system seller.
Nightengale
Member
It's a bit too early to say that without seeing how Halo 5 sells in its first week/month, no?
Halo is one of those IPs that resonates with both the core gamers, but also a lot of more casual FPS fans (who don't keep up with gaming news regularly) due to the massive popularity of the IP. It's an IP that's easy to get an insular perspective of due to perception of a lesser excitement, just like how NBA2K or MLB The Show's sales success just creeps up on you, charting high, and having good legs, as opposed to stuff like Bloodborne or MGSV.
Sure, the platform (Xbox) not selling as well as they would like does limit the potential, but there's still enough Xboxes out there that selling an upward of 6 million copies (over the next 3 months) should be the bare minimum expected of a Halo 5.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
I will say, if we don't get anything from Microsoft regarding Halo 5 sales tomorrow, it sold below their expectations.
I don't think so. It's possible that sales are lower than others Halo, so no press release, but this doesn't mean below expectations or not good.
Anyway, let's wait tomorrow (Halo 4 press release was out in monday)
Nightengale
Member
Not to mention that even if some parts of Halo 5 didn't do as well as they would like, MS has more than enough PR skills to craft a compelling press release that highlights what they did do well.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
I really hope they're going to release some actual numbers and not some BS like how many headshots or combined hours played stats.
I don't think so either. There's almost certainly a minimum marketing spend written into the contract. Either directly by Microsoft or reimbursable spend by S-E. I've never heard of a deal that didn't specify in real terms how much money was involved.
MS doesn't get to cheap out on marketing just because the deal doesn't look as good in light of current market conditions.
Maybe sales in dollars. Unit sales they didn't provided with Halo 3, Reach and 4.
twinturbo2
butthurt Heat fan
Forza has a bunch of real-life 2015 IndyCars, and some of the IndyCar tracks, so I think MS should go whole-hog and make a full IndyCar game. All the cars, all the tracks, some classic tracks and cars.
They're almost there anyways.
Predictions.
[3DS] 130K
[PS4] 425K
[WIU] 100K
[XB1] 500K
Halo 5 should be, bare minimum, top 3 in the sales charts, with a likelier-than-not chance at #1.
Will be number one easily. No other game will come close.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Well Phil they are gonna focus on 1st party from now, but I'm sure if a good opportunity presents itself he will take. Also fairly certain someone in the know said Microsoft tried to secure the next Mass Effect as an exclusive, but EA declined the offer.
It will definitely be #1 unless it has a disastrous launch.
Don't jump the gun just yet, donny, there is still one more update for the monthly charts.
Care to list these "months", then? The only month out of 22 months so far since the launch of the consoles that would fit your description would be April 2015. Even then, there were two XB1 SKU's pretty close to the leading PS4 SKU, with one being just one spot behind. Which is, you know, pretty similar to this month, except we have two PS4 SKU's being quite close to the Halo 5 bundle.
Wow it's really low for game that's just out
That's why makes sense, try to hit a different public. Mass Effect would be a great exclusive, but it's a franchise already aligned with Xbox.
I think the idea of get Tomb Raider was correct, the problem is the timming of launch. It feels that Microsoft is sending the game to die, but maybe will move some hardware on Europe.
Nightengale
Member
Has Halo ever been a Twitch-popular game in the first place? It's a game many people love to play, but it's never been a game that draws an audience to watch a match of. At least not in the numbers that makes people go e-sports.
At least that's what I remember of previous Halo games either.
At least that's what I remember of previous Halo games either.
They did get Titanfall and Tomb Raider, I don't think they'll raise the white flag yet regardless of what Phil said.
Beautiful Ninja
Member
Well Twitch wasn't a big thing until Halo 4 and Halo 4's MP was ass, so no one was playing, on or off stream. Halo: MCC had broken MP for months so no one was playing there either. They are effectively starting a streaming community from scratch with Halo 5.
unapersson
Member
I thought August was a quiet month normally. How do August and October sales normally compare?
VanCityGamer
Member
Yeah but this isn't accounting for a couple other October PS4 bundles that are much higher than the second Xbox bundle. It's impossible to draw any real solid conclusions this month.
You have a point, but it never works like that, MS tried that with JRPGs last gen and it didn't work, Tomb Raider fans don't exist in a vacuum, the action adventure genre is more associated with Playstation, and TR is just one game in that genre, MS needs more than one game to convert that audience. It's even more complicated than that considering the franchise is big in Sony's territory rather than MS's.
It's the same reason Destiny continues to sell better on XB1 (non-bundles) despite the heavy marketing campaign by Sony.