CelticVegas
Banned
Congratulations to Sony and Playstation. They deserve this success.
50 million when?
Q2 FY 2016 is my guess.
One's a platformer and the other's a beat 'em up, so you can't even compare them like that lol.There's no point in having a Crash game when there's Knack, which is MUCH superior in game design, but needs better character design.
lol True enough. Hence my pondering.Because they have access to a ton of retail & consumer behavior you don't and are making that decision in line with their business needs.
Nope, but it seems intuitive to me that "A game of your choice" would generally be more appealing than "A game of our choice." That's why I asked if anyone had some evidence that the latter was just as appealing as the former, thereby eliminating the need for unbundled consoles.Can you provide any evidence at all that people - especially parent given the time of year it is - buying gaming systems see greater value in a standalone unit or a bundle that costs $50 more?
Well, they are buying the game and hoping it's the right one though I suppose that's less obvious if there's no gameless option sitting next to it. Still, the "free game" angle may have some merit, I suppose. Perhaps that actually serves to subtly increase overall spending. For example, let's assume the average console buyer typically buys 1.7 games along with their new system, so they have something to play. My assumption would be that including a game with the console would reduce that tie ratio by ~1, but perhaps it's significantly less. Maybe rather than selling 0.7 games with the average bundle, it's closer to 1.2 or something. Again though, that seems somewhat counterintuitive to me, so I'd be interested in seeing those numbers sometime, if they exist.I think what appeals to people isn't the specific game involved so much as the perception of value that comes with a free game. Especially if it's a newer one. Also, it can make people looking to buy it as a gift less afraid of the overall starting cost, as they don't immediately have to buy a game for the system when they purchase it.
Well, it would include UC4, but I seriously doubt retailers are paying $45 for TLoU, since it's retailing for $20 or less. And yes, as I said initially, Sony will profit a few bucks more on the bundles, but that seems like a comparatively small gain if it involves turning their back on anyone not interested in the bundled games. Yes, a few may go ahead and buy the system with the game they don't care about, but I imagine most would rather just wait, especially when they've already waited this long. And I'm not arguing we should eliminate the bundles, but rather that they shouldn't be the only "option" for the consumer.You just said for yourself that you think retailers pay $45 for a game. Which would include games like Uncharted and TLOU. So if that were true, Sony would actually be making $5 by bundling it in with the added price as opposed to letting them buy it with the system.
Well, it's a bit more than a possibility, which is sorta central to my point. The system isn't much good without at least one game, and the general assumption is that the user is going to end up buying several throughout the life of the machine. The only question is whether Sony pick my first game with a $10 discount, or I ignore the discount and choose my own game. Except for some reason, Sony have seen fit to eliminate the latter choice. And no, a DQ fan obviously isn't going to defect, but they may continue to wait to jump in to Gen8 if their only bundle options are shooting, shooting, or shooting. How does that benefit Sony?That, and you'd rather take a guaranteed $50 when they buy the system than the possibility of $60 later on. And the person looking for Dragon Quest, for instance, isn't going to skip buy the PS4 at all because it came bundled with a different game, especially since, you know, Dragon Quest isn't coming to Xbox (and will probably be a very different game on 3DS/possibly NX). As far as that's concerned, the only thing they'd have to worry about is if the competition is actually selling a bundle for the game (for example, a Fallout fan may be more likely to buy an Xbox One this holiday because that comes bundled with Fallout as opposed to having to buy a PS4 and Fallout 4 separately).
I heard that while Ps4 is still outpacing Ps2, that that's by worldwide standards, and that the NA Ps4 numbers have already slipped behind Ps2's. Is this true?
50 million when?
Q2 FY 2016 is my guess.
At least in the US i expect Sony to outsell last year´s October-December quarter by 500k.
20% yoy increase is reasonable considering that last year PS4 had a relatively lukewarm holiday season in the US and yet they shipped 6.4m consoles.
This year they're in for very strong numbers in US and Europe and Japan will also be up compared to last year.
I'd say that 7.5m shipped for Q4 is really likely, which would put the total at the of the year at 36.8 millions.
Eh, my first PS4 prediction for this quarter was 7.8 million, but i also predicted 3 million last quarter.
They shipped WAY more than what i expect... this mean that maybe they sold more than what i expected, but most likely that they overshipped the quarter wayting for the PS4 boost in October / November with the pricedrop and the bundles incoming.
So, i don't know... since they overshipped this quarter, maybe i will decrease a bit my prediction. So, i say 7.5 million and not 7.8 million.
But maybe you should see this... xD
I heard that while Ps4 is still outpacing Ps2, that that's by worldwide standards, and that the NA Ps4 numbers have already slipped behind Ps2's. Is this true?
you wouldn't happen to know when it happened or how much of a slip it was would you?Yup.
you wouldn't happen to know when it happened or how much of a slip it was would you?
I wonder if it can start getting back up & outpacing it again.
That really puts things into perspective. I wonder if Ps4 can even cross 100 million now.
Gnam gnam.
As i said more times, the reason of PS4 > PS2 WW is because the firsts 6 months of comparation, the PS2 was released only in Japan...
So, for the firsts 6 months is: PS2 in Japan VS PS4 in US, EU, JP, and other countries.
That's why PS4 was WAY over PS2... but PS2 will inevitable beat PS4 in maximum 1 year. Even sooner.
About US, i really doubt PS4 back above PS2.
It was selling better for the firsts 4 months, but since the first March, PS2 is started to sell in beasting level.
That really puts things into perspective. I wonder if Ps4 can even cross 100 million now.
the ps4 is also more expensive though
Depending on when the nx releases, I wonder if it'll kill the Ps4's momentum. Because by that point, for anyone who hasn't bought an 8th gen system, the nx will be the newest, freshest piece of hardware on the martlet & may capture more potential consumer attention than the Ps4.I think it can. It'll no doubt do over 50 million next year and once it hits $299 you enter the mass consumer pricing.
When it does come down to $299, I feel like the momentum won't be as strong if it were going from $399-->$299 since it's already $50 cheaper, so it'll be going from $349 to $299.the ps4 is also more expensive though
Depending on when the nx releases, I wonder if it'll kill the Ps4's momentum. Because by that point, for anyone who hasn't bought an 8th gen system, the nx will be the newest, freshest piece of hardware on the martlet & may capture more portentously consumer attention than the Ps4.
When it does come down to $299, I feel like the momentum won't be as strong if it were going from $399-->$299 since it's already $50 cheaper, so it'll be going from $349 to $299.
That's true, but this will not change for the years to come. Just like PS3 is still very, VERY expensive for be a 9 years old console... i think we will see a similar trend with PS4.
That really puts things into perspective. I wonder if Ps4 can even cross 100 million now.
That's true, but this will not change for the years to come. Just like PS3 is still very, VERY expensive for be a 9 years old console... i think we will see a similar trend with PS4.
So ps3/360 selling 170 million they were targetting one market only? Your whole argument is based of anecdotal evidence, the wiiu has the best family software there is, and i remember Reading some where that 93% were male gamers over 19 that owned a wiiu, maybe family software is cod, madden, fifa. Asscreed and gtav, who really knows? cause i know a few families that play those games together, you might be surprised how big m rated games can be with kids, families. i remember when i was a kid every single kid i knew played 007. With many gamers being older and having children they probably dont care what there kids play.
PS4 has a 2016 full of great games including the debut this gen of big seller frachises thanks to a great 1st party line-up, 3rd party and indie support. Recently had the price cut and until now had a great market share, so the friend factor for multiplayer or sharing games will favor it. Everything points next year PS4 will sell even better.Depending on when the nx releases, I wonder if it'll kill the Ps4's momentum. Because by that point, for anyone who hasn't bought an 8th gen system, the nx will be the newest, freshest piece of hardware on the martlet & may capture more portentously consumer attention than the Ps4.
When it does come down to $299, I feel like the momentum won't be as strong if it were going from $399-->$299 since it's already $50 cheaper, so it'll be going from $349 to $299.
It would be really, really difficult for NX so I assume they will choose again to find a separate, own market.
Well, it wouldn't really be an over-shipment, if shipments were increased to meet increased demand from the incoming price cut. Yes, to arrive in time for the price cut in early October, they'd need to start increasing shipments the last week of August*, but since the plan is for those units to fly off the shelves when the price cut is announced, so there's no "overstock" for them to work through in Nov/Dec, so similarly no need to reduce shipments for that quarter. On the contrary, the increased shipments that were likely fully underway in September would serve to forecast increased demand for the holiday quarter. So if they really did ship "an extra million" to sell in October at the new price judged against your pre-cut prediction of 3M then one would assume they also figure on selling quite a few at the new price in November and December, and even in to January.Eh, my first PS4 prediction for this quarter was 7.8 million, but i also predicted 3 million last quarter.
They shipped WAY more than what i expect... this mean that maybe they sold more than what i expected, but most likely that they over shipped the quarter waiting for the PS4 boost in October / November with the price drop and the bundles incoming.
Well, keep in mind the build costs on the PS4 have already dropped pretty significantly. They're selling it for ~US$290 in Japan, and they said they're profitable at that price point.That's true, but this will not change for the years to come. Just like PS3 is still very, VERY expensive for be a 9 years old console... i think we will see a similar trend with PS4.
I thought the main reason the wii u (and the wii for that matter) lost 3rd party support was because its hardware was way, way, way behind in raw power when compared to the other consoles on the market. I heard a rumor that nx isn't supposed to be a huge step above the wii u, but as long as it's in the same ball park as the other 8th gen consoles (which again raises the question of if this'll be 9th gen or 8th gen replacement, but that's not what I'm bringing in here) wouldn't that be enough to garner 3rd party support?I don't know. The NX is going to have to have the third party support. I think as far as home consoles go Nintendo has become increasingly irrelevant. They have to really knock it out of the park with the NX.
why'd they cut the Ps2 price that soon? were they selling at a loss at that point?Talking about perspectives: PS4 just had its first $50 price cut after almost 2 years. The PS2 was reduced by $100 in May 2002, 1,5 years after its launch in the US, giving it a tremendous market push.
So it's far too early to announce a winner. That said, it is highly likely that PS4 will have a shorter PLC than any of its predecessors.
so...it won't be competing in the console market?The exact WiiU numbers we had from last year were 93% of male, and 93% 18+ years old. So basically no kids, teenagers or female players there.
PS4 has a 2016 full of great games including the debut this gen of big seller frachises thanks to a great 1st party line-up, 3rd party and indie support. Recently had the price cut and until now had a great market share, so the friend factor for multiplayer or sharing games will favor it. Everything points next year PS4 will sell even better.
NX will have to fight against a giant installbase with a great library. If wants to fight for the same market than PS4, will need similar architecture and horsepower to ease multiplatform ports, get the attention of the 3rd parties and don't focus on bizarre controls. In addition to that, will need something appealing like a way cheaper price, extra horsepower, great exclusives and something extra the others can't offer that highly appeals a great number of players.
It would be really, really difficult for NX so I assume they will choose again to find a separate, own market.
Ps3 was also on the market for 7 years (before a successor). Do you think this generation will last as long?100 milion? Too low, it will be over 130 milion easily.
Ps3 was 90 million so it will sell more than that.
This quarter i expect 7.5m at least.
Ps3 was also on the market for 7 years (before a successor). Do you think this generation will last as long?
Ps3 was also on the market for 7 years (before a successor). Do you think this generation will last as long?
Ps3 was also on the market for 7 years (before a successor). Do you think this generation will last as long?
Ps3 was also on the market for 7 years (before a successor). Do you think this generation will last as long?
for the record though, I do hope that this generation lasts at least as long as the last. the more years you get out of it, the greater the investment it was for how many years ago you purchased it.Good point, forgot that, if it last as much i think 130m but maybe it won't so 110/115m.
that would definitely be a huge increase. as long as this momentum continues I think it can break 100 million. i wonder if at some point it'll cross the 3ds ltd as well.Good point but say 100 million ps4 in 5 years would be considered a big increase on 90 million in 7 years for PS3.
Obviously total sales are of interest but sales per year is more important as long as you are still in the game ( releasing new hardware)
when the new hardware (Ps5) comes to the market, that's what's going to get all of sony's promotion, though.PS4 will hit sub $200 (even sub $100) at some point. So it won't simply die off like the PS3 did when new hardware comes to market. Sony's biggest problem with the PS3 was that it was unable to get the pricepoint down.
Imo price get underestimated in these type of discussions. PS4 is still $100 above Wii when it was wrecking havoc and $150 above the pricepoint where the PS2 was getting the majority of it's sales.
Eh? I never said that. I said the bundled software costs Sony $40-$45 per copy, so bundling it with a $300 console for $350 only makes them an extra $5-$10 profit per console.I guess at that time sony could afford to bleed, that certainly can't be said now, although serversurfer did say above that sony's losing $40-$45 per every Ps4 sold after the price cut.
so...it won't be competing in the console market?
PS4 will hit sub $200 (even sub $100) at some point.
I thought the main reason the wii u (and the wii for that matter) lost 3rd party support was because its hardware was way, way, way behind in raw power when compared to the other consoles on the market. I heard a rumor that nx isn't supposed to be a huge step above the wii u, but as long as it's in the same ball park as the other 8th gen consoles (which again raises the question of if this'll be 9th gen or 8th gen replacement, but that's not what I'm bringing in here) wouldn't that be enough to garner 3rd party support?
why'd they cut the Ps2 price that soon? were they selling at a loss at that point?
I guess at that time sony could afford to bleed, that certainly can't be said now, although serversurfer did say above that sony's losing $40-$45 per every Ps4 sold after the price cut.
so...it won't be competing in the console market?
Ps3 was also on the market for 7 years (before a successor). Do you think this generation will last as long?
My mistake. So if a Ps4 costs less than $292 to build, they would actually be fine with selling it at $299, but they want to make more profit.Eh? I never said that. I said the bundled software costs Sony $40-$45 per copy, so bundling it with a $300 console for $350 only makes them an extra $5-$10 profit per console.
The PS4 is selling for ~US$292 in Japan, and Sony said that was profitable for them, so we know a PS4 costs "less than $292" to build. Shipping them shouldn't cost more than a few bucks a unit. So $300 with no game in the US should be break-even for them at worst, and anyone buying the unbundled console is all but certain to buy a game for it, meaning profit for Sony. Plus, they may get Plus, etc.
I thought that was the point of nx, to try and become relevant in the console market again? So what's the point of them coming out with an early console if it won't make much difference?Nintendo haven't had true 3rd party support since the GameCube and even then it lagged behind PS2 and OG Xbox.
I will put money on that it will not get the same level of 3rd party support as the rest.
In fact NX will remain a console for Nintendo gamers only, apart from Wii, Nintendo have been selling to the same base since N64, around 30m and even that has shrunk with Wii U.
Nintendo are totally irrelevant in the home console space in regards to market share.
Some say this is the last generation. What if it really is.
My mistake. So if a Ps4 costs less than $292 to build, they would actually be fine with selling it at $299, but they want to make more profit.
so they're just breaking even with $350?Selling for $299 = loosing money, cause you have shipping cost (storage cost) + retailer mark-up.
The tendentious sue of figures and doublethink continues from Kyle Orland and Ars technica.
so they're just breaking even with $350?
but you just said they'd be losing money at that price point due to shipping costs.No, i only wanted to say that their actual bom has to be a chunk lower than $292 for them to sell it @ $292 and make a profit.
If they are profitable in japan @ $292 they should also be profitable in the us @ $300.
The tendentious use of figures and doublethink continues from Kyle Orland and Ars technical. Several days later...
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/...-widen-its-console-sales-lead-over-microsoft/
The PlayStation 4 now controls roughly 52 percent of the worldwide console market (Fig. 4) and enjoys its largest ever relative lead over the Xbox One in this market.
vs
In other words, while the Xbox One is increasing its sales at a faster rate than the PS4, Microsoft still lost more ground to Sony this year than last on an absolute basis.
lol from a certain perspective (making up Xbo360 vs one split) Xbox is "increasing faster", but still losing on an absolute basis.
The fuckmuppetry is pure, so pure.
Don't read anything into it "fellow consumers".
A 40' container will hold 1980 PS4s, and it only costs ~$3300 to ship a container from Shanghai to Los Angeles, and that's as a one-off; contract rates will be substantially lower. Their shipping costs are pretty nominal; likely not much more than a buck a unit, if any. Retail likely absorbs any in-country distribution and warehousing costs, as they already have the infrastructure. I don't know about in Japan, but here in the States, retail gets effectively zero markup on the consoles themselves.Selling for $299 = loosing money, cause you have shipping cost (storage cost) + retailer mark-up.
but you just said they'd be losing money at that price point due to shipping costs.
A 40' container will hold 1980 PS4s, and it only costs ~$3300 to ship a container from Shanghai to Los Angeles, and that's as a one-off; contract rates will be substantially lower. Their shipping costs are pretty nominal; likely not much more than a buck a unit, if any. Retail likely absorbs any in-country distribution and warehousing costs, as they already have the infrastructure. I don't know about in Japan, but here in the States, retail gets effectively zero markup on the consoles themselves.
Second, GameStop's profitability should spike due to the fact that it is selling fewer consoles. New hardware carries the lowest profit margin of any GameStop's product, around 10%. That's why operating margin dove at the end of 2013 from 11.6% to 9.5%. New hardware doubled as a percentage of sales to over 31%, dragging GameStop's overall profitability down.
We do not know. MS is no longer reporting console sales. They are now measuring success based on Xbox Live.How many Xbones sold?