Holy shit, I fucking lost it. This is such a beautiful day.
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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Holy shit, I fucking lost it. This is such a beautiful day.
Black Mamba
Member
I think that undersells his support, though. I mean, this assumed everyone who supports trump will vote in the primary. This isn't true, he will have supporters not in the primary that would vote in the GE third party. I have no clue how many, but they exist.
BTW, I'm having a hard time seeing Trump as the nominee now. If you're the GOP and you think a Trump nom means the end of the WH bid, then you can't let him win. And I don't think Trump can grab 50% of the delegates on his own. Which means a brokered convention. And while at first the threat of a third party run was enough to hand it to Trump, he's crossed a winnable line so if he runs third party or he gets the nom you lose either way. And in the former, you are almost certainly hurt down ballot where maybe you are but you don't know with the latter.
So why would you let Trump be the nominee? You might as well see if he's bluffing. If he isn't, you'd lose if you didn't try to call it, anyway.
2 weeks ago I felt differently because I think the GOP could convince themselves they still had a chance with Trump. Maybe they still do but they have to be at least reevaluating that premise.
Basically, if the GOP doesn't believe they can win with Trump, then he can't become the nominee if they don't want him to be it. So it really is their call.
edit: If the party IS deciding, it's not Cruz. No way, no how. Rubio or Jeb! with Rubio being the heavy favorite. No fucking way is it Cruz.
Manmademan
Member
You aren't wrong, but Silver is being dishonest with stats to attempt to make his point....as usual when it comes to trump.
Total population is completely irrelevant when discussing the possibility of a primary victory, because the total population doesn't vote in the republican primary.
Trump has the majority of the support in just about all early primaries, and 30% or so of republicans nationally with another 12% or so backing him as a second choice.
Even if we take that national 8% and extrapolate it into actual voters, 8% of 330 million adults is 26.4 million voters.
Mitt Romney won the 2012 election with half this number. About 10 million popular votes. A motivated 8% that actually shows up to polls will have trump winning the nomination in his sleep. Even if half those who love trump stay the hell home he still wins.
But I'm sure Nate silver somehow missed all that...
Edit: keep in mind these numbers aren't useful for discussing the General election, as trump would presumably be the only republican running and get the anti democrat vote by default. With the country as polarized as it is literally anyone could scrape up 30 to 40 percent in the general election as long as they had an R next to their name.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
1) I'm not a democrat
2) Sanders and Trump running as independents would kind of even out your concern as they both would pull votes away from the established parties
It'll depend on who they think his support will go to though, which is how I've always approached this. If they can be reasonably assured that Rubio will take it after they take Trump out then they will, but if they think it could be Cruz then they'd probably rather let Trump do his thing. Cruz would be worse for them than Trump.
Sanders said he won't run as an independent.
Mike Bloomberg migh jump in, though. lol
Fenderputty
Banned
Worse? Why do you think worse?
A Trump loss will be about Trump losing. A Cruz loss would be about the GOP losing.
Because while Trump is a total egomaniac and completely insane, Cruz is those same things only he's a total fucking asshole on top of it. The entire GOP establishment hates Ted Cruz with a passion that cannot be properly described. He's basically everything that everyone hates about the GOP from the last few years. He'd do all the same damage as Trump only the party wouldn't be able to distance themselves from it.
RustyNails
Member
But if Trump continues to win primaries and caucuses, what's there to stop him other than a heavy handed approach which will absolutely backfire?
Uhhhhh
How long can Jeb stay in this? Carson is dropping and he's picking up zero gains. Nothing. Can he make it past Feb at this rate?
That's their other problem. If their first worry is Cruz taking it when Trump drops, their second is such an assault on Trump backfiring and making him even stronger.
Exactly. I think people are underestimating how much damage a brokered convention or the like could do.
Manmademan
Member
Brokered convention only works if Trump gets less than a majority of delegates. With the winner take all states sprinkled about the schedule I can't see how that's plausible.
Coriolanus
Banned
The man is Nixon reloaded. A true political monster.
Plus we dont have a writer as good as Thompson around to at least make it fun, so whats the point.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Sanders would just destroy any chance for an easy liberal win and lose his committee placements in the senate and any allies and friends he's made as a member of the Democratic caucus for 20 years. There's a reason he's already ruled a third-party run out, he just has nothing to gain.
Black Mamba
Member
I'm talking about at the convention, where they have to broker everything. Not at the primary level in terms of putting money/support.
In that scenario you negotiate. Getting Cruz would be very easy, IMO. You promise him that President Rubio will nominate him to the SCOTUS. This is great for the GOP because it gets Cruz out of congress and out of their hair plus he would be reliably conservative on the Court (fwiw, this is like the worst case scenario for me if the GOP wins the WH).
This requires at least 2 guys if not 3 hanging on through the entire primary season along with Trump, of course.
I wouldn't go along with attacking Trump during the primary season as that will almost definitely cause him to go third party. But if you do it at the convention through negotiation and such, make it look like a business deal, then Trump may not run. It's worth the shot.
There's also the superdelegates, though. But I haven't bothered to look at it and stuff, just musing. I'm not expecting a brokered convention, but at the end of the day, I think the GOP can decide to deny Trump the election and if they can't win the election with Trump, they may as well not win without him.
If this happens I am moving to fucking England or something.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
From Trump.
With the polling we've seen about how people feel regarding muslims, I'm beginning to seriously believe he has a bradley effect going on where people don't want to openly admit they support him but will do so with their vote. He could easily have another 5-10% of secret support.
Basileus777
Member
Cruz isn't stupid enough to buy that, it'd be a hell of a fight to get him confirmed and the Republicans may not even have a majority in the Senate.
Coriolanus
Banned
The problem is that he's also the kind of cynic that knows that putting up a True Establishment candidate up there to get crushed by Hills will only make his next bid in 2020 stronger.
Obv then he prolly factors demographic changes or whatever and balances it with the population's boredom with 12 years of dem rule before making a choice.
That's the interpretation somebody made to explain why he overperforms in internet polls.
He did pretty okay in that Suffolk phone poll that dropped today
Veritigo_X
Member
All that secret Bernie support too.
Black Mamba
Member
The reason the Democrats winning matters so much are for mostly two reasons.
1. International policy which needs no explanation.
2. Supreme Court. The GOP is going to nominate Cruz no matter what, IMO. And everyone else will also be like Cruz. And they will end the SCOTUS filibuster.
It is imperative that Hillary wins solely because of these 2 reasons. That is not to say there aren't other important reasons to look at from healthcare to tax policy to everything else because those are all important. But if Dems have 40 votes, they can block and the midterm elections will eventually "course correct" some of this as it always does. But you cannot undo war and you cannot undo SCOTUS justices.
These are things that will have lasting implications for 20-30 years and the state of the current GOP scares the shit out of me on these two topics.
It is imperative that Hillary frame the election is these terms. A vote for the GOP is a vote for war, a vote for Ted Cruz SCOTUS, and a throw in a vote for rich people getting tax breaks they don't need. that's it.
Basileus777
Member
It seems to me that he'd be better off pulling the "establishment screwed me" card than making some sort of deal with Rubio for a low percentage chance at the SCOTUS.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Why would Trump fall due to anti-Muslim comments? A sizable amount of people agree with him, inside and outside the republican primary process. He made blatantly racist comments about Mexicans and didn't take a dent, which should bigoted comments on Muslims hurt.
Black Mamba
Member
There is no scenario where Rubio wins the Presidency but the GOP doesn't have the Senate.
They'll nuke the filibuster completely in this scenario. It's a done deal.
Rubio is Tea Party through and through. I agree if it was Jeb! but Rubio isn't really establishment. He's New Establishment.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think the "Trump third party would boost GOP turnout" argument is a fair one but i also feel it might be kind of worth it to ensure that a Democrat wins the presidency.
Plus I would be actively rooting for him to finish ahead of the GOP nominee because oh my god guys that would be so amazing.
Plus I would be actively rooting for him to finish ahead of the GOP nominee because oh my god guys that would be so amazing.
Fenderputty
Banned
Both platforms are extreme right positions, so I'm not really sure the right can sell an eventual national loss this to their base as "conservative lite"
I guess I agree that Cruz is part of the party, so a Cruz loss nationally would be harder to distance themselves from than Mr anti-establishment. Though I'm not sure. The freedom caucus is as anti-establishment as anything we've seen prior to trump.
If they fear an eventual loss nationally with both of these candidates, I wonder how they feel about a possible win with either of the two. haha.
I agree with you 110%, you'll never hear otherwise.
No one will say it outloud, or on the record, but it fucking terrifies them.
Basileus777
Member
It's presuming that 1) Rubio wins, 2) The Republicans have a filibuster proof margin in the Senate, 3) That Rubio and the establishment keep the deal despite their distaste for Cruz. Those aren't what I'd call good odds. It'd be a bad deal to take.
Black Mamba
Member
Oh, I know.
I just wanted to ramble about it, there.
I hate Ted Cruz more than any person in politics. I loathe the man. I'm a very non-violent person but if I ran into him, there's a non-zero chance I would just punch him in his smug face just because I can.
The filibuster is irrelevant. It will be nuked. And they most certainly keep that deal because they want Cruz out of politics and he's the perfect conservative justice.
The only issue is #1. And at that point Cruz has to figure out if he can grab the nom and if he thinks no, then he needs to make this deal. I bet he'd rather be a Justice, anyway.
RustyNails
Member
Like I said, they are using this as an opportunity to shut him out once and for all. They thought he would crash by now, and he didn't, and instead he said another outrageously dumb thing. Now's the time to fight and destroy him if they want a hope to win.
Don't think they're doing this because they're "offended" or freedom or whatever.
Bob Dole on whether he'd vote for Cruz: I might oversleep that dayOh, I know.
I just wanted to ramble about it, there.
I hate Ted Cruz more than any person in politics. I loathe the man. I'm a very non-violent person but if I ran into him, there's a non-zero chance I would just punch him in his smug face just because I can.
Oh, I know.
I just wanted to ramble about it, there.
I hate Ted Cruz more than any person in politics. I loathe the man. I'm a very non-violent person but if I ran into him, there's a non-zero chance I would just punch him in his smug face just because I can.
I know, just wanted to say it for anyone reading.
Also, ditto on punching Ted Cruz in his smug prick face given the chance.
Yellowtail
Member
You've gotta assume that all *8 SCOTUS justices would beg congress not to confirm Cruz. Or threaten something.
Like Scalia is a nut but at least he's charming in person (I'll trust RBG on this). No way is Roberts going to accept working with Cruz till the day he dies.
Like Scalia is a nut but at least he's charming in person (I'll trust RBG on this). No way is Roberts going to accept working with Cruz till the day he dies.
RustyNails
Member
Also Cruz is a demagogue. If sent to SC he will be shut out for the rest of his career. How will he villify and demagogue? Man will run for president every election. Man will sell his books. Man will find Fox News/Conservaradio spot.
Coriolanus
Banned
Hrm, doesnt that describe Cruz far better than Rubs? If Rubio is True Tea, what would that make the monster?
(Also plz quote my post tag too when doing that, mambs. I didnt even register that you had quoted me on a first pass)
RustyNails
Member
Some are absolutely dumb and looking to get cheap page hits. Trump does business with Arabs. Who would've thought? My God...
Officerrob
Banned
Pretty funny seeing S.E. Cupp becoming baffled at the ridiculousness from a Trump campaign spokesperson
Officerrob
Banned
I can get behind that
Black Mamba
Member
Cruz is Cruz Party. Of course he's Tea Party, too. My only point is that Rubio is also Tea Party. He rode the Tea Party, described himself as Tea Party in 2010. He's not Establishment like Jeb!
The difference is the Establishment is fine with Rubio because he's willing to play ball with them to get what he wants (VP or Presidency) whereas Cruz makes everything about the cult of Cruz.
It's like how now people are all "Paul Ryan is the moderate GOPer." No, he's not. He's a hard line right winger. He's just not so stupid to default the gov't hard line. Doesn't make him moderate.
sorry about the quoting, but when I sometimes edit it's a lot of work to get the quote tag in.
Veritigo_X
Member
New CNN/WMUR NH poll (11/30 - 12/7)
Trump 32% (+6)
Rubio 14% (+5)
Christie 9% (+4)
Bush 8% (-1)
Kasich 7% (+1)
Cruz 6% (+1)
Carson 5% (-3)
Fiorina 5% (-11)
That Christie surge.
Edit: Their last poll was from September if you were wondering about Fiorina.
Trump 32% (+6)
Rubio 14% (+5)
Christie 9% (+4)
Bush 8% (-1)
Kasich 7% (+1)
Cruz 6% (+1)
Carson 5% (-3)
Fiorina 5% (-11)
That Christie surge.
Edit: Their last poll was from September if you were wondering about Fiorina.
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