• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2015 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)

Alrus

Member
Yep it will. Being lower in price for the whole and a stronger drop of games throughout the year (Uncharted 4, SFV in spring, Persona in summer, TLG in Fall?) and other big games like FFXV will really boost sales next year.

Honestly outside of FFXV and Persona, all the other game you cited won't do much in Japan.
 

sörine

Banned
There are other companies in worse positions, like tecmo koeiI, since their last successes were two games using franchises from other companies (Zelda Musou and DQ heroes). Musou games are selling well because of asia, but in japan they are consistently doing worse and worse.
Asia's still a drop in the bucket compared to Japan. It's an ecouraging growth market and Koei's definitely taking a lead position in capitalizing on that, but there's pretty much no way it's coming anywhere close to making up for the Japanese decline we've been seeing for franchises like Musou. Koei Tecmo's own numbers:

1H FY2016
74.9% Japan
10.5% North America
6.2% Europe
8.4% Asia

Not to jump on you in particular but inflating the significance and contribution of Asian sales, with precious little in the way of real numbers to back it up, is a trend I've been seeing in this thread and sales threads in general. Same with the nebulous "ROTW", I feel like we should probably be more careful with these sorts of assumptions when they usually lack any hard data.
 
The only game that will make the difference next year comparing to this, if it comes out, is FF.

I'm not so sure. FF will give the usual boost during the opening week, with some leftover the subsequent weeks. Those games, on the other hand, will allow the platform to keep a good weekly baseline, if released in a reasonable way so that there are no line-up holes. After all, if you don't have mass-market appeal games, what you can hope at most is performing similarly to PS3 and those games - coupled with some big release every 4-5 months - should serve the purpose.

Exist Archive is tri-Ace's 2nd lowest opening week for a new IP I think. The lowest being Beyond the Labyrinth which was a straight up bomb.

Judas Code was a bigger bomba than both, though.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
I'm not so sure. FF will give the usual boost during the opening week, with some leftover the subsequent weeks. Those games, on the other hand, will allow the platform to keep a good weekly baseline, if released in a reasonable way so that there are no line-up holes. After all, if you don't have mass-market appeal games, what you can hope at most is performing similarly to PS3 and those games - coupled with some big release every 4-5 months - should serve the purpose.

2015 H1 is stronger from 2016 H1 for PS4 releases and when Sony stayed out of new titles for a few months they started giving Bloodborne for free before they give the real price cut.

Better scheduling at second half will make things look better but only a big title will make the difference.

Never bet against Nintendo on Japanese Holiday Season. Splatoon and Mario Maker keep on selling.

That Nintendo holiday magic surely didn't work last year.
 

Kid Ying

Member
I think next year will be better for the ps4, but people tend to overstimate next year games, while understimating the effect that games that launched this year had. MGS5, DQH, Bloodborne... All of those games had a nice effect on PS4 hw and made the console more attractive for the japanese. When people talk about stuff like persona, sfv and uncharted, i can't see them having a much higher effect than what those games already had.

Of course, big stuff like FFXV, KH3 and so would drive sales a lot.

And Sorine, i'm surprised that asia is just this, since i've seem here people saying how musou games are worth because of asia in a whole. Asia numbers are quite nebulous indeed, but if this is true, i think koei is in a mess. Musou keeps selling less and less and after that Aslam game even their colaborations seems like a no go. At least they are trying to diversify a little more by putting those games on steam. It makes me thinking about the reason that they stopped doing ports for the wiiu. It's not like their games were selling much less than they are already selling elsewhere.
 
+76% for Splatoon, fucking wow. I hope the NX will be noticably more successful than the Irrelevant U and that Splatoon 2 benefits greatly from it. If it has a 30-50% raise from the original, it`ll turn into one of Nintendo`s biggest IPs. :)

Why is PS4 selling so high compared to previous months, just because it's December?

Of course, big stuff like FFXV, KH3 and so would drive sales a lot.
DQXI and FFVII which is probably a 2017 title as well.
 

L~A

Member
So yeah, as said on the first page 3DS will definitely reach 20m this year, and without Week 53 actually.

Also realised that the "split" is pretty good for sales this year, with Christmas/New Year.

Week 52 has 4 days before Christmas, and sales are pretty strong during those.
Week 53 has 3 strong days with New Year. Should help avoid any major drop in sales between Christmas/New Year.
 

sörine

Banned
KH3 isn't that big a game. I expect it'll sell closer to P5 than FFXV. It also won't clear a million, at least not without muliple Best reprints and Final Mixes.
 

Mato

Member
Honestly I think and hope that brand awareness is good enough that if people want another game to play, they will pick up the Mario, Zelda, etc. games already available. It's really too late for Nintendo to bother putting big new games in development for Wii U at this stage in the game IMO, especially with NX coming soon and with the Wii U resurgence being primarily in JP and not as much in the West unfortunately.

I agree with you, I'm not voicing a complain. Just noting the weird situation they are in. If the system was selling for a lower price it would be ok. All systems sell for a discount when they are nearing the end of their lifetime. But Wii U is still selling for a high price and I'm not sure it is justified considering they are about to retire it.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
For next week YSO predictions are rising.

YSO predictions

Week 51, 2015 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)

01. [3DS] Monster Strike < 500k (average 420k)
02. [3DS] Monster Hunter X < 240k (average 180k)
03. [PS4] Fallout 4 < 120k (average 95k)
04. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters < 100k

YSO predictions

Week 52, 2015 (Dec 21 - Dec 27)

01. [3DS] Monster Hunter X < 250k (average 185k)
02. [3DS] Monster Strike < 200k (average 160k)
03. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters < 150k (average 120k)

00. [PSV] Mobile Suit Gundam Extreme Vs-Force < 130k (average 90k)
00. [WIU] Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem < 35k (average 30k)

Or take a look at 2009 to see how sales increase or decrease.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
HOLIDAYS SALES SO FAR ( 2 WEEKS LEFT)

[PS4] 240,000
[WIU] 215,000 ( fun fact, nearly 40% of those sales are sold this week)


Will be very interesting to see. :p Next week is a given for Wii U, even with the stock problem.

The last week of the year, usually is better for PlayStation system, but considering the gap of this week, who know, Wii U can win even the week 53...

Code:
[img]https://i.ytimg.com/vi/BGkkR18MAtM/maxresdefault.jpg[/img]
 
Wii U out of stock, all according to keikaku for #FE. Following comparable hardware trajectory from 2013, 120k FW incoming.
I agree with you, I'm not voicing a complain. Just noting the weird situation they are in. If the system was selling for a lower price it would be ok. All systems sell for a discount when they are nearing the end of their lifetime. But Wii U is still selling for a high price and I'm not sure it is justified considering they are about to retire it.
Well it's not like they're in a position to manufacture more Wii Us if they run out before NX. Production has been shut down for a couple years hasn't it? It would be very costly to put in another bulk order for new stock that may or may not sell, especially if they have to sell at a loss to do it.

Better to just ride out current stock at current price.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
1 thing that is scary though is the lack of evergreen wii u games showing up. No kart, smash, pikmin, no anything.
Outside of that fantastic result for Wii u being able to do 80k with two old games

Suboptimal...maybe..but "scary" ? A bit dramatic xD

Dont forget that most of these IPs are represented on 3DS as well and that system is still selling way better than the other consoles. New WiiU owners are getting the system to play Splatoon and Mario Maker.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
90% digital sale ratio confirmed?

10 million in Japan alone!!!!!!!

12391972_192625254417868_3029232780164688607_n.jpg
 

enishi

Member
reposting it again...

regarding MonSuto 3DS.... which asian countries do mixi refers to? taiwan+hk?

Copy from old post:

Yes, Nintendo HK (also being the distributor for Taiwan) sells MonSuto Japanese version here.

But I think it accounts for less than 5000 pcs LTD...

---------------------

And Gundam EXVS Force already at 20% discount in Amazon, maybe I can get it in bargain bin when I am having my Japan trip in Jan...
 
Copy from old post:

Yes, Nintendo HK (also being the distributor for Taiwan) sells MonSuto Japanese version here.

But I think it accounts for less than 5000 pcs LTD...

---------------------

And Gundam EXVS Force already at 20% discount in Amazon, maybe I can get it in bargain bin when I am having my Japan trip in Jan...

ahh thanks... i guess i skipped your post in the old thread
 

sörine

Banned
Suboptimal...maybe..but "scary" ? A bit dramatic xD

Dont forget that most of these IPs are represented on 3DS as well and that system is still selling way better than the other consoles. New WiiU owners are getting the system to play Splatoon and Mario Maker.
That's a good point. Splatoon and SMM are the only Wii U evergreens that don't already have a 3DS counterpart available so perhaps that has something to do with their comparably sustained legs?

I wonder if this possibly bodes well for Pokken, Star Fox or Zelda? Even if none them are going to be huge sellers they at least don't have a comparable 3DS release to cannibalize them.
 

Mr Swine

Banned
Nice numbers overall for Nintendo and Sony. Really impressed how well Splatoon, Super Mario Maker and Wii U are doing atm :) too bad that Wii U never got any 3:rd party support. It would have been a bit higher I think.

I wonder if Wii U will have a similar trajectory like year 2014 in 2016.
 

sense

Member
sörine;190247291 said:
KH3 isn't that big a game. I expect it'll sell closer to P5 than FFXV. It also won't clear a million, at least not without muliple Best reprints and Final Mixes.

what if it has a frozen world? :)
 

thefro

Member
I think next year will be better for the ps4, but people tend to overstimate next year games, while understimating the effect that games that launched this year had. MGS5, DQH, Bloodborne... All of those games had a nice effect on PS4 hw and made the console more attractive for the japanese. When people talk about stuff like persona, sfv and uncharted, i can't see them having a much higher effect than what those games already had.

Of course, big stuff like FFXV, KH3 and so would drive sales a lot.

It'll be better, but the big elephant in the room is obviously when the NX releases and how it compares to the PS4 in terms of power, features, price, and games lineup.

Wii U out of stock, all according to keikaku for #FE. Following comparable hardware trajectory from 2013, 120k FW incoming.

Well it's not like they're in a position to manufacture more Wii Us if they run out before NX. Production has been shut down for a couple years hasn't it? It would be very costly to put in another bulk order for new stock that may or may not sell, especially if they have to sell at a loss to do it.

Better to just ride out current stock at current price.

If I remember correctly, they shut down production after ~10 million units produced, so the stuff in stores now would have to be new units from a new production run.
 
Yo-kai Watch Busters is the third best-selling Level-5 game in Japan:

1. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.07.10} (¥4.937) - 3.163.285
2. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.12.13} (¥4.968) - 2.626.146
3. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team / White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5) {2015.07.11} (¥4.968) - 1.860.532

It will get closer and closer to Shin Uchi; impressive for a spin-off.
 

Kid Ying

Member
sörine;190249094 said:
That's a good point. Splatoon and SMM are the only Wii U evergreens that don't already have a 3DS counterpart available so perhaps that has something to do with their comparably sustained legs?

I wonder if this possibly bodes well for Pokken, Star Fox or Zelda? Even if none them are going to be huge sellers they at least don't have a comparable 3DS release to cannibalize them.
I always thought that was what happened with the wiiu. 3DS is at a point where nintendo games offer the same value on both systems, so there is no need to buy a more expensive console to play games you are already served on. I don't think this is true for everything, but i think this happens quite a lot. I'm sure that if Splatoon was already on 3DS or started there, even if the wiiu version was much better, it's success would be quite small compared to what it is today.

I think nintendo needed to show stuff that only wiiu could do, or at least games that you couldn't have a counterpart on 3DS. A shame it took them so long.
 

saichi

Member
Yep it will. Being lower in price for the whole and a stronger drop of games throughout the year (Uncharted 4, SFV in spring, Persona in summer, TLG in Fall?) and other big games like FFXV will really boost sales next year.

TLG comes out in 2016 and makes an impact on PS4 sales? don't see it happening.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
How far is it between Splatoon and MK8 in life time sales now?

Splatoon digital sales were 18% by end of October.

Assuming we have the same ratio now, with 966k on Famitsu ( and even bigger on MC), should be near 1.18 million retail + digital.

...If i'm not wrong, Mario kart 8 should be over 1.20 million including digital, but i don't know the exatly numbers.

Anyway, with those weekly sales, Splatoon will outsell Mario Kart 8 lifetime by end of this year.

Crazy.
 
Top Bottom