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[Square2015]

Thank Chris1964! I'm putting the data in weekly form and graphing it, PSX and N64; I guess there is no the revised weekly data that you might have?

...some of the data is weird, the PSX doesn't show a price surge after its first price drop compared to the data I have (June '95). Famitsu multiplies x1.3 for '97 and as high as x1.6 for '98 for PSX, they seem to have really undertracked 1998, and for the N64 (not surprisingly even moreso). Havent gotten to 1999 yet.

1. Chris, do you have revised GBC / GBP ?

2. Did famitsu really not have the weeks they doubled over (g-week, x'mas etc)? They just halved the number...

3. I wonder if the revised DC LTD ends up closer to that 2.25m or the 2.8m(?) number...?

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu multiplier is 1,2 for 1996, 1,3 for 1997 and 1,6 for 1998 / 1999.

2000 and 2001 are a mess.

 

[Chris1964]

Speaking for system sellers and revived systems I think you can guess what was coming out at the start of 1997.

+--+----------+----------+----------+
|  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |   PS1    |   PS1    |   PS1    |
|Mo|1995.01.02|1996.01.01|1996.12.30|
|  |    to    |    to    |    to    |
|  |1995.12.31|1996.12.29|1997.12.28|
+--+----------+----------+----------+
| 1|   180.000|   150.000|   519.063|
| 2|   120.000|   125.000|   530.742|
| 3|   200.000|   215.000|   827.570|
| 4|    90.000|   190.000|   453.696|
| 5|    50.000|   165.000|   271.777|
| 6|    45.000|   200.000|   293.417|
| 7|   100.000|   240.000|   400.198|
| 8|    80.000|   310.000|   300.231|
| 9|    70.000|   245.725|   204.695|
|10|    55.000|   150.631|   183.095|
|11|   130.000|   184.292|   226.573|
|12|   250.000|   513.446|   679.644|
+--+----------+----------+----------+

 

[Aostia]

Why though? Re: Digitize Decode sold pretty bad. There's no real incentive for them to pursue it.



The 3DS, being as prevalent and dominant as it is, didn't capture that software/those audience so unless NX somehow shows growth I don't think it'll reconvince them. Confidence in 3DS at release was higher than we'll probably ever see for a dedicated system again.



NX probably won't hurt for software sales but it doesn't appear to hold much sway for third parties.



I think the bigger question is whether publishers/developers see it that way. Just to contrast Capcom doubled down with Monster Hunter on portables whilst Namco and Koei Tecmo tried to establish themselves on consoles(&PC in the west). On a surface level that looks like Capcom had a much better grasp of why those games are popular on portables.

Spoiler

Publishers seem super, super confident in VR too for some reason.

Regarding the quote from me, I would say that no vita successor is a relevant factor you are not considering Regarding my statement, that in any case is just describing a doubt and not a fact.
I am just dazzled by you so sure about ditching a nintendo portable being so unable to partially benefit for the disappearence of the direct competitor in japan.

And note that my point of vie was filtered by this possibility of vita not being substitute by sony

 

[Chris1964]

...some of the data is weird, the PSX doesn't show a price surge after its first price drop compared to the data I have (June '95).

PlayStation had these price cuts

PS 1994年12月3日発売 (39,800&#20870

→'95年7月21日29,800円
→'96年3月28日24,800円
→'96年6月22日19,800円
→'97年11月3日18,000円
→'98年12月1日15,000円
　
PSone 2000年7月7日発売　(15,000&#20870
→'01年9月12日9,980円
→'02年5月16日オープン

1. Chris, do you have revised GBC / GBP ?

2. Did famitsu really not have the weeks they doubled over (g-week, x'mas etc)? They just halved the number...

3. I wonder if the revised DC LTD ends up closer to that 2.25m or the 2.8m(?) number...?

I used graphs with monthly sales (shots from famitsu presentations with pathetic resolutions and angles), CY YTD hw (from geimin, not there anymore), H1 and H2 FY sales (found from bttb) in order to fill first month gaps or find the proper multipliers. PS1 and N64 are the only systems I had info to do this and you can bet it wasn't an easy work.

For N64 there is basically no error and for PS1 0~5% for 2000 and 2001.

 

[Chris1964]

YSO predictions

Week 1, 2016 (Jan 4 - Jan 10)

01. [3DS] Monster Hunter X < 70k (average 55k)
02. [3DS] Monster Strike < 60k (average 50k)
03. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters < 45k (average 35k)
00. [WIU] Super Mario Maker < 35k (average 30k)
00. [WIU] Splatoon < 35k (average 30k)

 

[Oregano]

Regarding the quote from me, I would say that no vita successor is a relevant factor you are not considering Regarding my statement, that in any case is just describing a doubt and not a fact.
I am just dazzled by you so sure about ditching a nintendo portable being so unable to partially benefit for the disappearence of the direct competitor in japan.

And note that my point of vie was filtered by this possibility of vita not being substitute by sony

I'd probably be more likely to believe NX could scoop up those releases if A) Vita releases were slowing down and B) Publishers hadn't already begun getting those series on PS4.

As it is it seems entirely plausible and likely that Vita will still be getting those games a year or two into NX's life, which means publishers will miss the crucial window at the beginning of a new generation anyway.

By that point it'd probably be easier to default to PS4(+PC) where they already have an established fanbase. They'd also have the opportunity to upgrade the production values which is a key selling point for a lot of those releases.

The major wildcard is if Kimishima starts throwing money and weight around in a way Iwata never did. Nintendo hasn't been aggressive securing exclusives, never mind just getting a game as a multiplat.

 

[Eolz]

I don't get what YSO means by "<35k (average 35k)".
Did they do that in the past?

 

[Pennywise83]

3DS has all the important 3rd parties on board. Their current problem is a lack of niche titles which is more due to the graphical capabilities of the 3DS. An advanced graphical game would fit better on Vita while a cheap low effort release would fit better on mobile. Another problem is that Sony is a lot more likely to get games based on anime due to their ownership of Aniplex. In any case, 63% of the software sales for dedicated devices were sold on Nintendo platforms. Nintendo is in a strong position to continue that with the NX.

I do feel there's some kind of misconception here since 3DS does have niche titles- they just go unnoticed because 1. they are not usually localized; 2. they cater audiences different than the average forum gamer. There are plenty of niche publishers on 3DS as well: Sonic Powered, FuRyu, Nippon Columbia, Happinet; plenty of niche games by bigger publishers, such as Namco Bandai, Nintendo itself (there's a Culdcept game releasing this year). On top of that, there are many smaller games coming exclusively on the eShop, from Arc System Works and Circle Entertainment. I guess these games are also overlooked because 3DS has much more important software to look at, while a platform as PSV is basically living of niche games and they look more essential.

Why though? Re: Digitize Decode sold pretty bad.

Pretty bad?

Decode sold around 76k units - it was a lazy porting a PSP game which was released less than a year before, and sold 156k units. Meanwhile, Digimon Adventure on PSP the same year sold 80k units, and Cyber Sleuth on PSV did what, 140k?

 

[Xbro]

I don't get what YSO means by "<35k (average 35k)".
Did they do that in the past?

I thought it meant that all predictions are under 35k for the '<35k', but I'm not sure how the average can be 35k in that case.

EDIT: looked at the original post, it's "<35k (average 30k)"

 

[Takao]

Pretty bad?

Decode sold around 76k units - it was a lazy porting a PSP game which was released less than a year before, and sold 156k units. Meanwhile, Digimon Adventure on PSP the same year sold 80k units, and Cyber Sleuth on PSV did what, 140k?

Doesn't sound lazy to me.

 

[Pennywise83]

Doesn't sound lazy to me.

It's an enhanced porting with some new contents (nice PR spin) - maybe not lazy but it sold for what it was, especially considering it came less than a year after the original one, and the same year of Digimon Adventure, which sold around the same. Do you think it sold pretty bad?

 

[Oregano]

Pretty bad?

Decode sold around 76k units - it was a lazy porting a PSP game which was released less than a year before, and sold 156k units. Meanwhile, Digimon Adventure on PSP the same year sold 80k units, and Cyber Sleuth on PSV did what, 140k?

That was PSP in 2012/2013 which was eight years after launch and the game had a slew of new content. On that note Digimon Adventure didn't get a sequel and Re:Code was the only 3DS release.

Doesn't sound lazy to me.

That's a good article/interview because it highlights their platform choices. The PSP release were aimed at an older audience and the 3DS release was trying to expand that audience.

 

[Aostia]

I'd probably be more likely to believe NX could scoop up those releases if A) Vita releases were slowing down and B) Publishers hadn't already begun getting those series on PS4.

As it is it seems entirely plausible and likely that Vita will still be getting those games a year or two into NX's life, which means publishers will miss the crucial window at the beginning of a new generation anyway.

By that point it'd probably be easier to default to PS4(+PC) where they already have an established fanbase. They'd also have the opportunity to upgrade the production values which is a key selling point for a lot of those releases.

The major wildcard is if Kimishima starts throwing money and weight around in a way Iwata never did. Nintendo hasn't been aggressive securing exclusives, never mind just getting a game as a multiplat.

In fact I am doubtful but..On both sides. I mean, I think this topic will be tough to predict probably also because there will be no clear answer because ex vita games will likely Land still on vita, primarly on ps4 and pc, partially on NX and mobile.

I am only a bit confuse at how sure some pepe are about NX not getting support from japan when we are talking about the successor of the way most dominant platform in japan with possibly a way easier hw to developers multiplatform games for.

 

[Ōkami]

1. [3DS] Monster Hunter X - 376pts
2. [WIU] Splatoon - 207pts
3. [3DS] Monster Strike - 205pts
4. [3DS] Rhythm Heaven: The Best+ - 88pts
5. [PS4] Fallout 4 - 75pts
6. [WIU] Super Mario Maker - 73pts
7. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 64pts
8. [3DS] Yokai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad - 52pts
9. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam MIX - 43pts
10. [PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront - 39pts
11. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer - 39pts
12. [3DS] Yokai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team - 39pts
13. [PSV] Mobile Suit Gundam Extreme Vs-Force - 31pts
14. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III - 29pts
15. [PSV] God Eater: Resurrection - 27pts
16. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Omise Hajimerundesu - 27pts
17. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 - 27pts
18. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege - 18pts
19. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 17pts
20. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Triforce Heroes - 17pts

 

[noshten]

1. [3DS] Monster Hunter X - 376pts
2. [WIU] Splatoon - 207pts

What the hell how much was Splatoon last week?

Found it:

1. [3DS] Monster Hunter X - 372pts
2. [3DS] Monster Strike - 206pts
3. [PSV] Kidou Senshi Gundam: Extreme VS Force - 185pts
4. [WIU] Splatoon - 138pts

I don't have last week's comgnet numbers, but Fallout seems to be up quite a bit, no?

This week is usually really good for PS, perhaps that's reason Fallout has risen.

 

[u_neek]

1. [PS4] Fallout 4 - 75pts

I don't have last week's comgnet numbers, but Fallout seems to be up quite a bit, no?

Edit: checked last week's thread and it's actually slightly lower.

 

[Pennywise83]

That was PSP in 2012/2013 which was eight years after launch and the game had a slew of new content. On that note Digimon Adventure didn't get a sequel and Re:Code was the only 3DS release.

That's a good article/interview because it highlights their platform choices. The PSP release were aimed at an older audience and the 3DS release was trying to expand that audience.

The game didn't sell pretty bad; it's been clear that Digimon games have a limited audience, and a 3DS porting couldn't do much for it. Let's how the new PSV game is going to do, because I feel we're going to witness a similar drop (probably less dramatic, though) between Digitalize and Adventure.

 

[Kresnik258]

Let's how the new PSV game is going to do, because I feel we're going to witness a similar drop (probably less dramatic, though) between Digitalize and Adventure.

Really? I'd expect it to be up a bit, because it's a World game rather than a Story game.

 

[Takao]

It's an enhanced porting with some new contents (nice PR spin) - maybe not lazy but it sold for what it was, especially considering it came less than a year after the original one, and the same year of Digimon Adventure, which sold around the same. Do you think it sold pretty bad?

I think it sold about as well as one could expect.

 

[Oregano]

In fact I am doubtful but..On both sides. I mean, I think this topic will be tough to predict probably also because there will be no clear answer because ex vita games will likely Land still on vita, primarly on ps4 and pc, partially on NX and mobile.

I am only a bit confuse at how sure some pepe are about NX not getting support from japan when we are talking about the successor of the way most dominant platform in japan with possibly a way easier hw to developers multiplatform games for.

Well the issue is that the 3DS is only dominant in Japan, it's been bleeding out in the west and has a minimal Asian presence. It's also not dominant for the type of releases that are presently on other systems anyway.

I'm also going to question whether it will be easy to make multiplatform games on because that base level is going to shift(as it always does). 3DS could have had multiplatform releases throughout 2011 and 2012 but it didn't get them. FF Type 0 is almost the poster child, that could have easily been a 3DS game and come out in the west.

EDIT: ...and by the time NX releases cross-gen probably will have been phased out completely. Yakuza is going PS4-only and stuff like Tales, Musou and Atelier will probably follow.

The game didn't sell pretty bad; it's been clear that Digimon games have a limited audience, and a 3DS porting couldn't do much for it. Let's how the new PSV game is going to do, because I feel we're going to witness a similar drop (probably less dramatic, though) between Digitalize and Adventure.

Why? Vita software hasn't exactly been under-performing.

 

[Prelude.]

Mandatory Decode pic

 

[Oregano]

Mandatory Decode pic

Your picture isn't showing up(because it's on abload?). In the pic is it referring to a Triangle button? Ha if so.

EDIT: Has shown up now for some reason(?)

 

[Celine]

Can you do the same with Dragon Quest series?

BTW missed Final Fantasy (NES) shipment in the previous graph: 1.20M

 

[Prelude.]

Your picture isn't showing up(because it's on abload?). In the pic is it referring to a Triangle button? Ha if so.

Changed to imgur. What's wrong with adbload?

 

[Pennywise83]

Really? I'd expect it to be up a bit, because it's a World game rather than a Story game.

Why? Vita software hasn't exactly been under-performing.

As I said, the audience for Digimon doesn't seem that much; best-selling recent games were on DS and sold 218k and 185k respectively. On average, games sell much less and also I don't see much anticipation for the game (perhaps I'm wrong, who knows) - this might also be because the time span from the announcement to the release is much shorter this time.

Also, we have seen plenty of PSV games declining and / or underperforming this year, for one reason or the other: Exist Archive, Ray Gigant, Taiko, Criminal Girls 2, Neptunia games, Grand Kingdom, Senran Kagura Eestival Versus, Experience dungeon crawlers...

 

[Ryng_tolu]

02. [WIU] Splatoon - 207pts

... What the fucking fuck... lol.

YSO predictions

Week 1, 2016 (Jan 4 - Jan 10)

00. [WIU] Splatoon < 35k (average 30k)

This Splatoon beasting train never stop.

I expected like 20-25k the first week of January, 30k or over that is seriusly crazy since the holidays are over.

For a comparation, Mario Kart 8 was already under 10k ( 8,884), and was bundled, Splatoon not anymore.

YSO predictions

Week 1, 2016 (Jan 4 - Jan 10)

01. [3DS] Monster Hunter X < 70k (average 55k)
02. [3DS] Monster Strike < 60k (average 50k)
03. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters < 45k (average 35k)
00. [WIU] Super Mario Maker < 35k (average 30k)

Very good those games too.

 

[Pennywise83]

BTW missed Final Fantasy (NES) shipment in the previous graph: 1.20M

Is DQM: Joker 2 including the Professional version? Because the game sold around 1.3m in Japan and it seems weird it sold 700k units in Western markets. Same for DQM: Joker, which shipped around 1.5m in Japan.

 

[Oregano]

Changed to imgur. What's wrong with adbload?

I'm not actually sure, it might have just been an issue on my end?

As I said, the audience for Digimon doesn't seem that much; best-selling recent games were on DS and sold 218k and 185k respectively. On average, games sell much less and also I don't see much anticipation for the game (perhaps I'm wrong, who knows) - this might also be because the time span from the announcement to the release is much shorter this time.

Also, we have seen plenty of PSV games declining and / or underperforming this year, for one reason or the other: Exist Archive, Ray Gigant, Taiko, Criminal Girls 2, Neptunia games, Grand Kingdom, Senran Kagura Eestival Versus, Experience dungeon crawlers...

Well it could even up selling better when you consider Minecraft has opened Vita up to a younger audience and that Vita is getting some of its biggest releases this year(DQ Builders and World of FF especially).

Also under-performance hasn't really been a trend, even some of the games you listed might not have actually under-performed, namely Exist Archive and SK:EV(I even remember some debate over Ray Gigant's performance).

 

[Aostia]

Well the issue is that the 3DS is only dominant in Japan, it's been bleeding out in the west and has a minimal Asian presence. It's also not dominant for the type of releases that are presently on other systems anyway.

I'm also going to question whether it will be easy to make multiplatform games on because that base level is going to shift(as it always does). 3DS could have had multiplatform releases throughout 2011 and 2012 but it didn't get them. FF Type 0 is almost the poster child, that could have easily been a 3DS game and come out in the west.

EDIT: ...and by the time NX releases cross-gen probably will have been phased out completely. Yakuza is going PS4-only and stuff like Tales, Musou and Atelier will probably follow.



Why? Vita software hasn't exactly been under-performing.

Reading your posts it seems that Vita has a great active base in the west, that its japanese performance in better than the 3ds one and the multi development with ps4 is much easier than a possible incoming dev kit.

Dont know, I am sceptikal about nintendo third party support in general, obviously, but completely discard japanese support for a nintendo portable successor of the 3ds somehow seems too pessimistic to me.

Last week people claimed that almost every "nintendo" game will become multi with ps4

This week you seems pretty adamant about NX portable support unable to gain anything more and probably drying up even

Probably I am on the wrong side, but I would say that, obviously in NX will be a portable, if it will be rightly positioned in terms of hw, if partners are already involved and informed with dev kit, if the price will be interesting, NX portable could have the chance to still see a support comparable to the 3ds one (general terms), probably seeing some exclusive be coming multi both from 3ds to ps4 and to vita to NX imho.

 

[Celine]

Is DQM: Joker 2 including the Professional version? Because the game sold around 1.3m in Japan and it seems weird it sold 700k units in Western markets. Same for DQM: Joker, which shipped around 1.5m in Japan.

Probably yes. It isn't specified.

It's sell in data of course.

 

[Chris1964]

Oregano has changed the view he had before.

A few months ago he saw only PS4 and mobile for the future, now at least he gives a chance to next Nintendo portable not being a total disaster.

 

[Aostia]

... What the fucking fuck... lol.



This Splatoon beasting train never stop.

I expected like 20-25k the first week of January, 30k or over that is seriusly crazy since the holidays are over.

For a comparation, Mario Kart 8 was already under 10k ( 8,884), and was bundled, Splatoon not anymore.



Very good those games too.

Well.. We all have to bow down to the Splatoon messiah, Ryng_Tolu

But, am I wrong or comgnet chart points to an even stronger week? I expected a small decline for next charts. ..

Btw all those points and predictions are very good for those games. Monster Strike too would almost clean all the stock if numbers will be confirmed

 

[Chris1964]

Don't read too much into comgnet. We'll see something similar with this next week.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=384214

 

[Oregano]

Reading your posts it seems that Vita has a great active base in the west, that its japanese performance in better than the 3ds one and the multi development with ps4 is much easier than a possible incoming dev kit.

Dont know, I am sceptikal about nintendo third party support in general, obviously, but completely discard japanese support for a nintendo portable successor of the 3ds somehow seems too pessimistic to me.

Last week people claimed that almost every "nintendo" game will become multi with ps4

This week you seems pretty adamant about NX portable support unable to gain anything more and probably drying up even

Probably I am on the wrong side, but I would say that, obviously in NX will be a portable, if it will be rightly positioned in terms of hw, if partners are already involved and informed with dev kit, if the price will be interesting, NX portable could have the chance to still see a support comparable to the 3ds one (general terms), probably seeing some exclusive be coming multi both from 3ds to ps4 and to vita to NX imho.

No, that's not what I meant. Vita games only went multi with PS3/PS4 because Sony made it as easy as possible and they presented more opportunity in the west. The other factor being that games on the PS Ecosystem tend to target different demographics than Nintendo platforms.

I just think it would take a perfect storm for it to happen to any significant degree. Nintendo would need to have made NX both powerful and easy to develop for whilst maintaining a low price to drive adoption. They would also need to communicate with developers much earlier than normal and have to address their weakness in other markets. It would also require developers to not want to increase their production values significantly from Vita/PS3 level and it would probably need their current plans to not produce good results. That's not impossible but it's a tall order.

EDIT:

Oregano has changed the view he had before.

A few months ago he saw only PS4 and mobile for the future, now at least he gives a chance to next Nintendo portable not being a total disaster.

Huh, I don't think it would ever be a disaster. I still think it's going to be a sizable decline from 3DS and the lineup won't be as robust for a number of reasons.

 

[Kresnik258]

Also under-performance hasn't really been a trend, even some of the games you listed might not have actually under-performed, namely Exist Archive and SK:EV(I even remember some debate over Ray Gigant's performance).

118. [3DS] Senran Kagura 2: Deep Crimson # <ACT> (Marvelous AQL) {2014.08.07} (¥6.998) - 71.038 / 71.038

2. [PSV] Senran Kagura Estival Versus # <ACT> (Marvelous) {2015.03.26} (¥7.538) - 71.347
4. [PS4] Senran Kagura Estival Versus # <ACT> (Marvelous) {2015.03.26} (¥8.618) - 36.834

*Shrug*

Some of the software he listed definitely underperformed on Vita (Criminal Girls; Neptunia; Ray Gigant) while some underperformed everywhere (Grand Kingdom). It's easy to play the platform blame game on forums (this thread in particular it's prevalent in), but sometimes you've just got an unappealing piece of software and that's nothing to do with what it's releasing on.

 

[Pennywise83]

118. [3DS] Senran Kagura 2: Deep Crimson # <ACT> (Marvelous AQL) {2014.08.07} (¥6.998) - 71.038 / 71.038

2. [PSV] Senran Kagura Estival Versus # <ACT> (Marvelous) {2015.03.26} (¥7.538) - 71.347
4. [PS4] Senran Kagura Estival Versus # <ACT> (Marvelous) {2015.03.26} (¥8.618) - 36.834

*Shrug*

Some of the software he listed definitely underperformed on Vita (Criminal Girls; Neptunia; Ray Gigant) while some underperformed everywhere (Grand Kingdom). It's easy to play the platform blame game on forums (this thread in particular it's prevalent in), but sometimes you've just got an unappealing piece of software and that's nothing to do with what it's releasing on.

Estival Versus was in the "declining software" category - as you can read, I specified I was listing both declining and underperforming games (the former a more akin comparison if we are talking about the new Digimon game). Shinovi Versus did 91k FW on PSV. Then, I'm not even mentioning I wrote that there are different reasons why this happened (I mean, we read plenty of reasons why #FE bombed, right?).

Well it could even up selling better when you consider Minecraft has opened Vita up to a younger audience and that Vita is getting some of its biggest releases this year(DQ Builders and World of FF especially).

Also under-performance hasn't really been a trend, even some of the games you listed might not have actually under-performed, namely Exist Archive and SK:EV(I even remember some debate over Ray Gigant's performance).

Ray Gigant sold 9k FW - it definitely underperformed.

As for Digimon, it might even sell 300k, who knows, but it's more likely it will stay flat or decrease, since we have seen that Digimon games on average have a limited audience and only rarely passed the 150k mark.

 

[saichi]

I have my reason for believe this, and yes one (one) of those is COMG, and 200k first week are definitively way more realistic than 200k lifetime.

no it's not.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

05. [PS4] Fallout 4 - 75pts

...Wait, what?
After saw Splatoon at >200 point i totally ignored the others games

Very well Fallout. hope in good legs.

Well.. We all have to bow down to the Splatoon messiah, Ryng_Tolu

But, am I wrong or comgnet chart points to an even stronger week? I expected a small decline for next charts. ..

Btw all those points and predictions are very good for those games. Monster Strike too would almost clean all the stock if numbers will be confirmed

COMG is the week ending 3 January 2016.
YSO predictions are the week ending 10 January 2016.

Me too, i expect a decline for Splatoon, since is just COMG, but i'm still impressed it got a 50% boost.

no it's not.

Yes it is.

 

[Oregano]

Estival Versus was in the "declining software" category - as you can read, I listed both declining and underperforming games (the former a more akin comparison if we are talking about the new Digimon game). Shinovi Versus did 91k FW on PSV.



Ray Gigant sold 9k FW - it definitely underperformed.

Shinovi Versus was also on PS4 though. It didn't decline that much when you consider that.

Maybe I'm misremembering about Ray Gigant but I thought I remembered people saying it was in line with most of their other (non-Demon Gaze) work.

 

[allan-bh]

BTW missed Final Fantasy (NES) shipment in the previous graph: 1.20M

Thanks.

With PS4 and 3DS versions Dragon Quest XI can be on the top.

 

[Prelude.]

Ray Gigant sold 9k FW - it definitely underperformed.

Compared to? Demon Gaze is the only exception here in terms of sales.
Also, apparently people had issues with the game itself so I'm not sure what's the point of reading into the sales of a new IP from a developer that makes games that usually hover around 10k copies.

 

[Ōkami]

Street Fighter V will likely struggle to sell 200k lifetime, so yes 200k for Pokken FW is just out of this world.

It's on comgnet now, that's great, but Pokémon is one of those series that has the kind of fans that will buy anything with the Pokémon name on the box, for the time being, being on comgnet is meaningless.

Better see how it's doing in a month, if it's considerably higher then maybe, but still 200k opening week for the week is insane, it'd almost be what Smash Bros. did.

 

[Pennywise83]

Compared to? Demon Gaze is the only exception here in terms of sales.
Also, apparently people had issues with the game itself so I'm not sure what's the point of reading into the sales of a new IP from a developer that makes games that usually hover around 10k copies.

Maybe I'm misremembering about Ray Gigant but I thought I remembered people saying it was in line with most of their other (non-Demon Gaze) work.

The game had an average sellthrough FW (40-60%), which is not that good for niche games that tend to collapse after the launch week. The game also seemed to have higher production values than your average Experience RPG - it was also published by Namco Bandai, surely a better company in promoting a game than, say, Kadokawa.

Shinovi Versus was also on PS4 though. It didn't decline that much when you consider that.

It sold less on two platforms with respect to Shinovi Versus which was on PSV only. The game declined with respect to the previous entry, both overall and considering PSV-to-PSV direct comparison - so much for your theory that developing on all Sony platforms, companies can increase their audiences.

 

[Oregano]

The game had an average sellthrough FW (40-60%), which is not that good for niche games that tend to collapse after the launch week. The game also seemed to have higher production values than your average Experience RPG - it was also published by Namco Bandai, surely a better company in promoting a game than, say, Kadokawa.



It sold less on two platforms with respect to Shinovi Versus which was on PSV only. The game declined with respect to the previous entry, both overall and considering PSV-to-PSV direct comparison - so much for your theory that developing on all Sony platforms, companies can increase their audiences.

I never claimed that was the case(at least for Japan). Even if the possibility was there to grow it wouldn't be a guarantee.

 

[Prelude.]

The game had an average sellthrough FW (40-60%), which is not that good for niche games that tend to collapse after the launch week. The game also seemed to have higher production values than your average Experience RPG - it was also published by Namco Bandai, surely a better company in promoting a game than, say, Kadokawa.

Bamco still cheapened out in the end, it's not that different from usual, most of their budget probably went into a T.M.Revolution paycheck.

 

[Celine]

Thanks.

With PS4 and 3DS versions Dragon Quest XI can be on the top.

Might be but not by much if it happens.

 

[Kresnik258]

Estival Versus was in the "declining software" category

As long as you're not saying it underperformed, then we're all good here.

 

[Sandfox]

If anything SK:SV probably overpreformed due to the anime and Vita price drop. We'll see where the series goes next but I don't expect improvement.

 

[Kid Ying]

Splatoon probably got that boost on Comg because the bundle sold out last week and people that want to play that game got no choice but to buy the game alone, plus the shiro console or mario maker bundle.