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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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Diablos

Member
are you mocking yourself now? it's hard to tell.
No I'm not. There are people who Diablos more than I do over trivial non-stories but it's to the point where it actually can have an impact because everyone takes it as fact. It's infuriating.
 

User 406

Banned
Psychologytoday is generally trash, but this guy wrote a whole blog post about how Ted Cruz's facial expressions freaked him out:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blo...-ted-cruz-s-facial-expression-makes-me-uneasy

ted_cruz22-620x412.jpg


NUT TED

NUTTED BUT SHE STILL SUCKIN
 

Holmes

Member
jesus, now i see what we're up against
You post a "gotcha" video of a Republican hearing from "some journalists" that Sanders really won Iowa, and when you're called out to explain how these Republican talking points have any basis in reality, you shrug just shrug it off, along with your "us vs. them" mentality leads me to believe you don't care about discussion and just want to post pro-Sanders videos and articles. Crab and Melkr back up their arguments and participate in the discussion, and so can you!
 
About that Q-pac poll showing a... DEAD HEAT!

College degree/no college degree
2012 electorate=47/53
2014 electorate=51/49
Quinnipiac=31/69

Oh they Quinnipac's own raw data was 48/52, they intentionally set the weights that way. You can see the details at Dana Houle's twitter.
 
In both the polls-plus and polls-only models, Bernie is given a >99% chance to win NH.

The story in NH isn't really about if Hillary can win or not, it's about how narrow a margin she loses. If Sanders only beats her by single digits, that's going to be bad news for Bernie going into Nevada. If Bernie beats her by more than 20 points, that's bad news for Hillary going into Nevada. Between 10-20 is right within expectations and probably wouldn't move the needle much.
 

Iolo

Member
I wonder what the narrative will be if Rubio goes 3-2-2 (or 3-2-3 which is what it looks like currently). 3-2-1 is being awfully confident.

Rubio's team said he can survive the loss of the first 33 states as long as he then wins Florida and Ohio.
 

Tesseract

Banned
You post a "gotcha" video of a Republican hearing from "some journalists" that Sanders really won Iowa, and when you're called out to explain how these Republican talking points have any basis in reality, you shrug just shrug it off, along with your "us vs. them" mentality leads me to believe you don't care about discussion and just want to post pro-Sanders videos and articles. Crab and Melkr back up their arguments and participate in the discussion, and so can you!

you're projecting, mate. the more you learn, the more you bern.

my 'i now see what we're up against' was re: slimy push polling, and the depths some will go to win.
 

kirblar

Member
The story in NH isn't really about if Hillary can win or not, it's about how narrow a margin she loses. If Sanders only beats her by single digits, that's going to be bad news for Bernie going into Nevada. If Bernie beats her by more than 20 points, that's bad news for Hillary going into Nevada. Between 10-20 is right within expectations and probably wouldn't move the needle much.
This is a media narrative designed to hook people and make people believe things matter more than they do.

Nothing about NH is going to "change" further races. Other events might, but we've been expecting him to win big. His demographics have him riding straight into the volcano, but that doesn't get you hits.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
you're projecting, mate. the more you learn, the more you bern.

my 'i now see what we're up against' was re: slimy push polling

Well then connect your post to what you are talking about, nobody could tell from your post that you were referring to that. Especially when you posted something else in between.

EDIT: Also, I've read the article and the full disclosure thing the writer put at the bottom is supposed to be at the top. It's supposed to be at the top for a reason, so people know someone's agenda before reading the article. What this person did isn't all that different as a result.
 

Diablos

Member
About that Q-pac poll showing a... DEAD HEAT!

College degree/no college degree
2012 electorate=47/53
2014 electorate=51/49
Quinnipiac=31/69

Oh they Quinnipac's own raw data was 48/52, they intentionally set the weights that way. You can see the details at Dana Houle's twitter.
What matters more is people hyperventilating on social media over this fraud of a poll. It's a dynamic that's still pretty new to politics and how candidates can gain/lose momentum.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
one is directed from the top, and proven effective, the other isn't

i wonder why that is

I love how the poster failed to mention they were part of Bernie's campaign until the end of the post. Things like that are supposed to be in the first graph for a reason. I wonder why she didn't put it further up...
 

Tesseract

Banned
I love how the poster failed to mention they were part of Bernie's campaign until the end of the post. Things like that are supposed to be in the first graph for a reason. I wonder why she didn't put it further up...

Writer’s Note and Full Disclosure: I am working actively for the Bernie Sanders’ Presidential campaign. I have contributed money to Bernie Sanders’ Presidential campaign. His campaign, at least here in Nevada, to the best of my knowledge — is NOT resorting to “push polling.”

it's bolded, right next to the comments section

not very devious
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Writer’s Note and Full Disclosure: I am working actively for the Bernie Sanders’ Presidential campaign. I have contributed money to Bernie Sanders’ Presidential campaign. His campaign, at least here in Nevada, to the best of my knowledge — is NOT resorting to “push polling.”

it's bolded, right next to the comments section

not very devious

It's supposed to be at the very top of the article so that the reader knows about it before reading what the person has to say. So that they know that "Hey, I'm writing this article, but I also have a vested interest in the subject that you should definitely keep in mind while you read it." Having it at the very bottom completely defeats the purpose of the disclosure. They may as well have no even included it by putting it at the end.
 
Writer’s Note and Full Disclosure: I am working actively for the Bernie Sanders’ Presidential campaign. I have contributed money to Bernie Sanders’ Presidential campaign. His campaign, at least here in Nevada, to the best of my knowledge — is NOT resorting to “push polling.”

it's bolded, right next to the comments section

not very devious

The blog post is hyperbole and the only known fact at the end is that the blogger works for Sanders' campaign and likes to harass and mock some likely minimum wage telemarketer.

The whole thing reads like heroic political fan fiction.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
the point is a simple one, garbage like this (and the tinder stuff) must be condemmed.

Yes, but the reader still has a right to know about the author's vested interest in the subject before reading the article. By putting it at the end they may as well not even include it for all the good it does. It's supposed to be at the top for a reason.
 

Tesseract

Banned
Yes, but the reader still has a right to know about the author's vested interest in the subject before reading the article. By putting it at the end they may as well not even include it for all the good it does. It's supposed to be at the top for a reason.

okay
 

HylianTom

Banned
one is directed from the top, and proven effective, the other isn't

i wonder why that is

Nolan Dalla said:
At this point, I wasn’t sure if I was speaking with a national polling firm, a media outlet, one of the two political parties, or someone working directly on a campaign. It could have been any of the above. I simply hadn’t paid attention much at the start of the call. However, once the questions turned political, the real reason for my Friday evening phone call became obvious.

Note that the author of the blog admits that he doesn't know who called him.
Assuming who called is an common error to make.
It's a pretty common practice for outside orgs unaffiliated with campaigns to make these kinds of calls.
Very suprising and kinda sad that folks are shocked about how dirty American politics is.
Essentially, if you're going to make that kind of accusation, best back it up with actual evidence.
 
the point is a simple one, garbage like this (and the tinder stuff) must be condemmed.

In that case why post 2 articles within 20 minutes that claim Clinton is using underhanded tactics in order to win votes? Because the point seems to be Clinton must be condemned.

Or is it just a coincidence?
 

Tesseract

Banned
Note that the author of the blog admits that he doesn't know who called him.
Assuming who called is an common error to make.
It's a pretty common practice for outside orgs unaffiliated with campaigns to make these kinds of calls.
Very suprising and kinda sad that folks are shocked about how dirty American politics is.
Essentially, if you're going to make that kind of accusation, best back it up with actual evidence.

we should aspire to run clean campaigns

kind of funny how much the narrative has shifted since romney's superpac-man 47% dinners.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
we should aspire to run clean campaigns

kind of funny how much the narrative has shifted since romney's superpac-man 47% dinners.

The point is this person has no idea if this call was even affiliated with Clinton's campaign and is condemning them for something they aren't even sure Clinton's camp is behind. That ain't exactly squeaky clean.
 

Tesseract

Banned
In that case why post 2 articles within 20 minutes that claim Clinton is using underhanded tactics in order to win votes? Because the point seems to be Clinton must be condemned.

Or is it just a coincidence?

because i prefer bernie over clinton, it's a coincidence of conscience

.1% of the time the stuff I post is right 1% of the time
 
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