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NPD Sales Results for January 2016

D

donny2112

Member
Welfare said:
Hardware gap
Software gap?

HW gap increased 98k this month.

PS4 230k and XB1 132k is a 98k diff
Click to expand...

PS4-XB1 gap
XB1-WIU gap

Edit:
PS4/XB1 gap matches perfectly with a 100K diff this month (had numbers switched in spreadsheet before). XB1/WIU gap is ~15K more than I had it before. Just split the difference with LTD updates pushing PS4/XB1 up some and WIU down a little to get the numbers to match.
 
T

Tubie

Member
The Real Napsta said:
Are those even still around?
Click to expand...

It's their main bundle right now, you might be thinking of the $430 limited edition bundle.

They now sell a regular PS4 with BO3 for $350.

It's a great deal for the CoD/Madden gamer, they basically get a PS4 for $290 if they are finally upgrading from their PS3 or XB360 right now.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
donny2112 said:
PS4-XB1 gap
XB1-WIU gap

Edit:
PS4/XB1 gap matches perfectly (had numbers switched in spreadsheet before). XB1/WIU gap is ~15K more than I had it before.
Click to expand...

Your gap is exactly 1383k for PS4/XB1? Send me your numbers please :x I have it 8k higher.

Also my XB1/WIU gap is only 6k. Maybe sharing our numbers can get this to perfection.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
DriftingSpirit said:
It just shows what happens when the PS4 has price parity or undercuts. The X1 has to be cheaper or the gap will be larger compared to the gaps last year. Never mind the games coming this year.
Click to expand...

X1 was "cheaper" during holidays last year. There were better gift cards. X1 is cheaper now, 300$ at Amazon.
 
demigod

demigod

Member
onQ123 said:
You could even get Xbox One for $300 the whole month of January at Amazon , Walmart & Best Buy (Price Match) or get a $30 gift card at Target & Gamestop. Xbox One being down YoY even with a cheaper price & Halo 5 out on the console seems really bad when there don't seem to be anything that's going to change the trend in the next few months besides The Division.

C1Fc7AF.png


qetve77.png
Click to expand...

Wow thats pretty sad. And here i thought they lost that bad with a price parity. Sony should just go for their throat and announce a perma pricedrop to $299.
 
J

Jarod McChicken

Member
serversurfer said:
On the subject of Ubi's results, I was planning to bump that thread at some point, but in short, while I was initially surprised at the comparatively strong showing for the Bone, looking more closely at the numbers, it seems that Ubi's sales were actually down overall, but more severely for PS4 than for Bone. More severely for PS4 than for any of the "current" platforms, including PC, as a matter of fact. It's still easily their single largest earner, but it seems Ubi's calendar 2014->2015 drop was fueled primarily by a drop in PS4 sales. And these are all absolute revenue drops; ARPU dropped even more severely, given the increased installed bases. Loss of Gen7 sales hit them pretty hard as well though.
Click to expand...

Two words : Watch Dogs ! The peak of PS4 sales in Ubisoft business was when Watch Dogs released with the PS4 bundle and marketing deal in 2014. It did particularly good in Europe. In 2015, Assassin's Creed Syndicate wasn't able to make up for that of course.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Welfare said:
Your gap is exactly 1383k for PS4/XB1? Send me your numbers please :x I have it 8k higher.
Click to expand...

(All from NPD threads)
LTD gap @ Sept-2015 - 862K
Oct-2015 gap - -28K
Nov-2015 gap - 242.5K
Dec-2015 gap - 206.4K

=> EOY 2015 gap of 1282.9K

Jan-2016 gap of 1383K is exactly (when accounting for rounding) 100K more, then.

Welfare said:
Also my XB1/WIU gap is only 6k. Maybe sharing our numbers can get this to perfection.
Click to expand...

Decided that my PS4/XB1 numbers are probably good, so decided to just knock Wii U down a full 17K to make up the difference. When's the last time we got a LTD on Wii U? April 2014's the last one I see, so the 17K is probably all diff there, then.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
donny2112 said:
(All from NPD threads)
LTD gap @ Sept-2015 - 862K
Oct-2015 gap - -28K
Nov-2015 gap - 242.5K
Dec-2015 gap - 206.4K

=> EOY 2015 gap of 1282.9K

Jan-2016 gap of 1383K is exactly (when accounting for rounding) 100K more, then.
Click to expand...

Creamsugar posted the gap was 1285k back in the December. Was that rounded, then?
 
D

donny2112

Member
Welfare said:
Creamsugar posted the gap was 1285k back in the December. Was that rounded, then?
Click to expand...

Hmmm. Maybe. Being a multiple of 5K makes that more likely, but cs has used exact diffs before. Considering we got actual sales for Oct/Nov/Dec. + Sept gap, I didn't think much of it in December, though.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Holy shit. Its seriously a 100k sales gap in January?!?! Wow. Thats massive for such a low performing month.

I've been incredibly busy or otherwise occupied for the past few days and have been slowly trying to catch up with this thread. It is taking me wayyyyyy longer than I'd like to admit. Why the hell is this thread so damn long? Its JANUARY for crying out loud. Sigh. Back to trudging through. Sucks feeling like a late comer instead of a part of the festivities...
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
donny2112 said:
Hmmm. Maybe. Being a multiple of 5K makes that more likely, but cs has used exact diffs before. Considering we got actual sales for Oct/Nov/Dec. + Sept gap, I didn't think much of it in December, though.
Click to expand...

So then, if we need to get the gap to 100k, the PS4/XB1 either did 234/134 or 235/135

Simply using a base 235k for the PS4 and the pie brings the gap to slightly above 100k and 234k is just slightly below 100k but above 99.5k

Which would you use if the gap is 100k?
 
S

serversurfer

Member
Welfare said:
I have know idea. However, I just recently learned that a huge line of [ will extend the screen horizontally.
Click to expand...
Oh? That may be useful someday. Hey, speaking of tips, you should use CODE blocks for your tables and charts rather than QUOTE blocks. First, they're quotable themselves, but they also retain whitespace for formatting and stuff. Just build your tables in Notepad or whatever y'all have these days, making sure to use a monospace font, and then copy-paste in to the CODE block. :)


donny2112 said:
PS4/XB1 gap matches perfectly with a 100K diff this month (had numbers switched in spreadsheet before). XB1/WIU gap is ~15K more than I had it before. Just split the difference with LTD updates pushing PS4/XB1 up some and WIU down a little to get the numbers to match.
Click to expand...
Welfare said:
Your gap is exactly 1383k for PS4/XB1? Send me your numbers please :x I have it 8k higher.

Also my XB1/WIU gap is only 6k. Maybe sharing our numbers can get this to perfection.
Click to expand...
Ooh, me too? <3 Doesn't matter much to me what numbers we use or whether they're perfectly accurate &#8212; though that's always nice too, of course &#8212; but mostly it's just nice to know we're all working from the same page. Maybe we can maintain a Google Doc or something, or would that be too much?


Jarod McChicken said:
Two words : Watch Dogs ! The peak of PS4 sales in Ubisoft business was when Watch Dogs released with the PS4 bundle and marketing deal in 2014. It did particularly good in Europe. In 2015, Assassin's Creed Syndicate wasn't able to make up for that of course.
Click to expand...
Not having something to replace Watch Dogs in 2015 certainly hurt them, yes. Their 2Q15 revenues were ~&#8364;250M lower than they were in 2Q14, but their 2015 revenues were actually, ~&#8364;550M lower than 2014. So the loss of Watch Dogs only explains less than half of their annual drop in revenue. (Note: I'm referring to calendar years here, because it's less confusing.) I suppose it may have still been doing decent business Holiday '14 though&#8230;

Edit: Just glancing at it, it seems like the loss of PS360 sales would explain the bulk of the missing drop.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
serversurfer said:
Oh? That may be useful someday. Hey, speaking of tips, you should use CODE blocks for your tables and charts rather than QUOTE blocks. First, they're quotable themselves, but they also retain whitespace for formatting and stuff. Just build your tables in Notepad or whatever y'all have these days, making sure to use a monospace font, and then copy-paste in to the CODE block. :)
Click to expand...

CODE blocks?! Uncharted territory for me.

Code: 
Hello!

Oh hello there.

Edit: Wait these are quotable? I didn't even notice. I'll use these then.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Welfare said:
CODE blocks?! Uncharted territory for me.

Code: 
Hello!

Oh hello there.

Edit: Wait these are quotable? I didn't even notice. I'll use these then.
Click to expand...

Funnily enough I actually reformatted your MoM weekly average analysis in to code blocks for the first page of the predictions thread.

Heres what it looked like

Welfare said:
To clear some pent up emotions because of some personal happenings that happened today, I'm going to continue (and probably make this a monthly thing) where we look to how the weekly average changes in the upcoming months. This comparison will be going from December (5 weeks) to January (4 weeks, but 5 every few years).

2010 (December)/11 (January)

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 1860K / 5 = 372,000
Xbox 360 January: 381K / 4 = 95,250
Weekly average down 74%

Code: 
PS3 December: 1210K / 5 = 242,000
PS3 January: 267K / 4 = 66,750
Weekly average down 72%

Code: 
Wii December: 2360K / 5 = 472,000
Wii January: 319K / 4 = 79,750
Weekly average down 83%

2011/12

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 1700K / 5 = 340,000
Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Weekly average down 80%

Code: 
PS3 December: 950K / 5 = 190,000
PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
Weekly average down 74%

Code: 
Wii December: 1060K / 5 = 212,000
Wii January: 152K / 4 = 38,000
Weekly average down 82%
Click to expand...

2012/13 (January 2013 is a 5 week month. Only happens once in awhile)

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 1400K / 5 = 280,000
Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Weekly average down 80%

Code: 
PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000
PS3 January: 200K / 5 = 40,000
Weekly average down 69%

Code: 
Wii December: 475K / 5 = 95,000
Wii January: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Weekly average down 79%

Code: 
Wii U December: 460K / 5 = 92,000
Wii U January: 57K / 5 = 11,400
Weekly average down 88%
Click to expand...

2013/14

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600
Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Weekly average down 91%

Code: 
Xbox One December: 908K / 5 = 181,600
Xbox One January: 141K / 4 = 35,250
Weekly average down 81%

Code: 
PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800
PS3 January: 53K / 4 = 13,250
Weekly average down 78%

Code: 
PS4 December: 863K / 5 = 172,600
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
Weekly average down 61%

Code: 
Wii December: 150K / 5 = 30,000
Wii January: 10K / 4 = 2,500
Weekly average down 92%

Code: 
Wii U December: 481K / 5 = 96,200
Wii U January: 49K / 4 = 12,250
Weekly average down 87%
Click to expand...

2014/15

Code: 
Xbox 360 December: 309K / 5 = 61,800
Xbox 360 January: 39K / 4 = 9,750
Weekly average down 84%

Code: 
Xbox One December: 1297K / 5 = 259,400
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Weekly average down 86%

Code: 
PS3 December: 174K / 5 = 34,800
PS3 January: 34K / 4 = 8,500
Weekly average down 76%

Code: 
PS4 December: 1065K / 5 = 213,000
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average down 78%

Code: 
Wii December: 29K / 5 = 5,800
Wii January: 8K / 4 = 2,000
Weekly average down 66%

Code: 
Wii U December: 575K / 5 = 115,000
Wii U January: 63K / 4 = 15,750
Weekly average down 86%
Click to expand...


Some things to note.

  • January is dead.
  • January is REALLY dead.
  • January as a full month is almost always below the weekly average of December. The only 8th gen console that did not follow this was the PS4's first January, but this was thanks to supply issues at launch.

December 2015 Weekly averages for the 8th gen home consoles

Code: 
PS4 December: 1582K / 5 = 316,400
Xbox One December: 1376K / 5 = 275,200
Wii U December: 463K / 5 = 92,600

The PS4 and XB1 had amazing deals during December where both were available for at least $299 for 2 weeks and 3 weeks respectively. For those wondering what January might look like after this month, look to the XB1 in 2014/15 section. December was the last month of the "temporary" price cut, and the price did actually go back to $399 for 2 weeks in January. Because of this, the weekly average tanked to a drop of 86%. It is highly likely we will see a similar percentage drop in the January NPD thread. The PS4 might not suffer as big of a drop thanks to it actually receiving an official $50 price drop back in October.
Click to expand...

I assume you'll be updating this with the figures from January?
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Kyoufu said:
The hype for TitanFall was crazy scary too but both TitanFall 2 and Destiny 2 should beat their predecessors' debuts.
Click to expand...

Yes Titanfall 2 will probabily Sell More than The First, but only because it's coming on PS4... I'm 100% sure it will sell less on XB1 and PC, and overall i expect a small difference all version combined. This game is death after 2 months...
Destiny 2 will still sell huge numbers, but i expect less sales than the first.

Elandyll said:
Yes, but reading between the lines ... It almost didn't happen, given the obvious amount of bundle pre orders that were delayed into November I think... It was way too close for comfort for MS I imagine.
Click to expand...

I just reply to the guy who said XB1 has not outsold PS4 with Halo.
I agree that this was a "strane" month. :p
 
A

Atomski

Member
Man I'm not sure if that list could be anymore dreadfully boring. We need a new big hitter to dominate.. Seeing the same 4 things month after month is sad.
 
P

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
GopherD said:
I cannot begin to tell you how little mindshare with the development community Sony had leading into the announcement of the next gen consoles. Every significant third party partner had been consulted, but the bulk of interest in where the industry was about to go to revolved around Microsoft's launch. That they didn't read the market, or communicate the benefits of their vision adequately enough, meant that mindshare began to trickle back. After Sony nailed their launch that trickle became a torrent and then a flood.

What would have happened had Microsoft been a little more conservative? Hard to say, but there is no doubt that swing would not have been that severe.

There is so much to write on that period. One day it'll get done.
Click to expand...

I get the feeling that publishers, developers, and the bulk of gaming media especially were all anticipating a huge MS victory and Sony being pushed out into irrelevance... and not from just what you were saying. This feelings makes sense for U.S. based developers and publishers and professional gaming bloggers, but considering the state of the console market worldwide back in 2012, I do think it was an exaggeration banking on the feeling that Sony's comeback and closing of the worldwide gap had been a Pyrrhic victory.
Comeback stories generally get people excited, but somehow that was not reflected in their mindshare with publishers and gaming media before the console launch... almost the opposite was true.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Panajev2001a said:
I get the feeling that publishers, developers, and the bulk of gaming media especially were all anticipating a huge MS victory and Sony being pushed out into irrelevance... and not from just what you were saying. This feelings makes sense for U.S. based developers and publishers and professional gaming bloggers, but considering the state of the console market worldwide back in 2012, I do think it was an exaggeration banking on the feeling that Sony's comeback and closing of the worldwide gap had been a Pyrrhic victory.
Comeback stories generally get people excited, but somehow that was not reflected in their mindshare with publishers and gaming media before the console launch... almost the opposite was true.
Click to expand...
Part of it might also have been Sony's not so good financial situation around that time. They had some huge problems with TV, PC, Phone and consoles did not generate much profit either. Compare this with Microsoft not knowing where to put all their money and you could get the feeling that Sony just might not have the force to match Xbox in engineering, marketing, price and moneyhatting, if MS really meant it. Right now we laugh whenever someone mentions MS deep pockets or warchest, but before this gen started it was an image I guess Redmond wasn't unhappy with, resulting in anticipatory obedience by games media.
Retrospectively this sounds like fan fiction, but at that time it was nearly common sense. A majority expected the Xbox to win, and no one wanted to be on the losing team.
 
R

Raist

Banned
Welfare said:
Your gap is exactly 1383k for PS4/XB1? Send me your numbers please :x I have it 8k higher.

Also my XB1/WIU gap is only 6k. Maybe sharing our numbers can get this to perfection.
Click to expand...

Are you seriously stressing out over an 8k diff for a ~1.4M total? :p
 
O

OléGunner

Member
PS4 with the 100k gap is way more than I predicted. Think I was looking at something more like 40k.
Price parity at this point is an easy win for Sony nearly every NPD barring a Halo level exclusive coming out certain months.

creamsugar said:
rise ltd
XB1 368
360 71
Click to expand...

Not bad sales on X1 overall considering the crazy mishandling of the game.
Thanks for all the numbers provided as always too Cream.
 
P

ProfessorMoran

Member
slavesnyder said:
Part of it might also have been Sony's not so good financial situation around that time. They had some huge problems with TV, PC, Phone and consoles did not generate much profit either. Compare this with Microsoft not knowing where to put all their money and you could get the feeling that Sony just might not have the force to match Xbox in engineering, marketing, price and moneyhatting, if MS really meant it. Right now we laugh whenever someone mentions MS deep pockets or warchest, but before this gen started it was an image I guess Redmond wasn't unhappy with, resulting in anticipatory obedience by games media.
Retrospectively this sounds like fan fiction, but at that time it was nearly common sense. A majority expected the Xbox to win, and no one wanted to be on the losing team.
Click to expand...
I wonder what the decimation of gaming media sites like gametrailers and their loss of relevance will mean for MS now that they no longer have manageable online advocates compared to the xbox360 era where their influence was huge in north america.
 
wapplew

wapplew

Member
ProfessorMoran said:
I wonder what the decimation of gaming media sites like gametrailers and their loss of relevance will mean for MS now that they no longer have manageable online advocates compared to the xbox360 era where their influence was huge in north america.
Click to expand...

GT is pretty pro Playstation at lease the jolly GT crews are, but mostly Pro Nintendo. Most of the time no bias.
 
T

tattooed_dwarf

Member
stryke said:
Raist has been around long enough to know what NPD means.

Cream has already given H5 and Bloodborne numbers last month. Doubt that've changed that dramatically in Jan.
Click to expand...
No need to "defend" Raist, I know he knows what NPD means, that's why said pay attention, since I felt those numbers didn't prove that it hasn't sold through 1M back then.

I guess I missed those numbers, since I didn't have time to go through that thread back then. But I still need to know Ori numbers.
 
C

Cthulhu_Steev

Member
ProfessorMoran said:
I wonder what the decimation of gaming media sites like gametrailers and their loss of relevance will mean for MS now that they no longer have manageable online advocates compared to the xbox360 era where their influence was huge in north america.
Click to expand...

They'll still have Tim Dog and Crapgamer (when he returns) if all else fails.
 
S

stryke

Member
tattooed_dwarf said:
No need to "defend" Raist, I know he knows what NPD means, that's why said pay attention, since I felt those numbers didn't prove that it hasn't sold through 1M back then.

I guess I missed those numbers, since I didn't have time to go through that thread back then. But I still need to know Ori numbers.
Click to expand...

Just look through cream's post history
 
T

tattooed_dwarf

Member
Raist said:
I know full well it's USA (not NA - and retail only). But with such an LTD it's really difficult to imagine the supposed number being correct WW.
Click to expand...
Hard to say, but I understand your concern, especially concerning that number coming from Greenberg of all people. Maybe it sold better outside USA compared to how Xbone "exclusives" usually sell.
 
A

Alo0oy

Banned
RED_RING said:
What?

Also digital Sales can't be not included, This was annunced by Sony.
Click to expand...

Perhaps I should be more clear.

When the 2 million worldwide was announced, US+UK+Japan was approximately 1.1-1.2 million, with 800k coming from other regions or digital sales. But at the end of the year it's already more than 2 million from those markets + minimum from Asia. That's without digital sales or other markets.

Keep in mind that the expansion released in November.
 
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