NPD Sales Results for January 2016

Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
370
400,000 + 150,000 = 550,000 divided 2 = 275,000

So, here the mark. 275K. Less than this, you win, more than this, i win.

And keep in mind i mean retail+digital.

Deal?
I guess that can work. You're just giving me a bigger margin to win by :D

And no, this is NPD, not Nintendo's numbers. We are doing just physical, but if you need to change your prediction to not include digital, I can wait.
 
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
0
0
Italy
twitter.com
I guess that can work. You're just giving me a bigger margin to win by :D

And no, this is NPD, not Nintendo's numbers. We are doing just physical, but if you need to change your prediction to not include digital, I can wait.
But Nintendo in the NPD pro many times annunced the sales including digital. Majora's Mask, Monster Hunter, Splatoon, Mario Maker, Mario Kart and Smash Bros for example, it probabily could do a similar thing with Fire Emblem Fates as well. So, tecnically, digital sales could still be a part of NPD.

But ok, expect an usual 20% digital sales, so around 320,000 at retail. 235,000, then.

Retail only.

Retail & Digital lol... come on Red-Ring stop changing the rules.
Nothing change here lol, we have a lot of first months including digital from Nintendo.

Zelda Majora Mask 515,000, Monster Hunter 290,000, Splatoon 165,000, Mario Kart 8 415,000, Smash Bros 670,000 Wii U and 705,000 3DS, Mario Maker 445,000, Fire Emblem Awakening 180,000 ecc.

Only part of games first month in USA annunced by Nintendo in the NPD.
 
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
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0
In regards to digital for TPHD, again, Wolf Link amiibo. You don't get that with the digital (unless you buy the standalone whenever it releases later). Wolf Link amiibo should make digital % lower than normal for big Nintendo games.
 
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
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370
^Donny plz I just want this bet to happen already.

But Nintendo in the NPD pro many times annunced the sales including digital. Majora's Mask, Monster Hunter, Splatoon, Mario Maker, Mario Kart and Smash Bros for example, it probabily could do a similar thing with Fire Emblem Fates as well. So, tecnically, digital sales could still be a part of NPD.

But ok, expect an usual 20% digital sales, so around 320,000 at retail. 235,000, then.

Retail only.
Reiterating just to make sure.

Below 235k, I win. Over 235k, you win. NPD only, no digital. One month avatar control, nothing lewd.

I accept.
 
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
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0
Italy
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^Donny plz I just want this bet to happen already.



Reiterating just to make sure.

Below 235k, I win. Over 235k, you win. NPD only, no digital. One month avatar control, nothing lewd.

I accept.
Done.

...Well, good luck. I really wanna bet with you, since as i said i consider you one of the best predictor i ever saw... Gonna be an interesting tm bet. :)
 
Nov 2, 2013
1,534
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0
To be fair, the Wii one kind of sucked. The GameCube one was fine. Not super great but fine. Motion controls sucked, though. For reference, I played the GameCube one when it came out but waited until Nintendo Selects to play Twilight Princess on Wii.

This one uses proper controls, though, so no hindrance there.



Wolf Link amiibo. If it had to sell on its own merits at $60, I wouldn't be so sure. Wolf Link amiibo looks great, adds something/anything to Zelda U/NX, and Amazon/BestBuy are both 20% off the game with it being #1 Wii U game on Amazon (lol, like that's an accomplishment!) since the Amazon preorder 20% stuff was announced. So I'm thinking > 100K with it releasing early in the month is pretty well certain. Wouldn't want to try to predict anything massive, though.
I played it on the game cube. My criticisms are of the game's core mechanics.

Wolf form is awful. It's fucking atrocious. Combat is hold button to squat and wiggle around until all the enemies are in your circle. Wow. Platforming is... Nothing. It's just boring and terrible. Howling to replace the amazing musical integration of oot and mm was a farce.

And the dungeons are so forgettable. They're terrible. The dungeon items are inane at best, with very little influence on how you expand and explore the rest of the game.

First time I finished a Zelda game with no sense of achievement. I forced myself to finish, and the final boss fights were so dumb I literally face palmed.

Ugh.
 
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
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0
Combat is hold button to squat and wiggle around until all the enemies are in your circle. Wow. Platforming is... Nothing. It's just boring and terrible. Howling to replace the amazing musical integration of oot and mm was a farce.
Agree with all of that. Wolf fight mechanics (and now a whole challenge dungeon of them!) are not good. Also didn't like howling to replace Ocarina, but at least you didn't have to do it a lot (that I recall) like in Wind Waker.

I liked the talking with animals in Wolf form, though. Liked the whacked out characters (e.g. Baby running the shops, those guys running the carnival cannon) and some of the normal people (e.g. the people from your village). My main thing that I like to do in games is explore, and TP had a lot of that *cough* collectibles *cough*, though. The Xant storyline was kind of pointless (unless they set another game totally in that world sometime) and don't like the ending (
Midna preventing you from ever seeing her again by taking part of the mirror with her
). The boss fight with
Zelda
and then the one with
Ganon
out on the plain was not as good as Wind Waker but was way better than the terrible and annoying giant black creature that you have to attack his toes in Skyward Sword. (o_O)

As I said, the GameCube one wasn't super great, but it was a fine Zelda, in my opinion. Did not like the changes in the Wii version, particularly the controls, though.
 
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
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JAPAN
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I ain't scared. Well I am scared, of spiders. And clowns.

Terrible Zelda game is terrible. The people know this. I believe.
Fuck Clowns.

Code:
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/ERVUdn8.jpg[/IMG]
I reckon Zelda will sell somewhere in the neighborhood of 200k and nowhere remotely close to UC4s NPD debut. Good luck with your bet... 100k seems prettttty low mate. NVM I see you withdrew.
 
Nov 2, 2013
1,534
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0
Agree with all of that. Wolf fight mechanics (and now a whole challenge dungeon of them!) are not good. Also didn't like howling to replace Ocarina, but at least you didn't have to do it a lot (that I recall) like in Wind Waker.

I liked the talking with animals in Wolf form, though. Liked the whacked out characters (e.g. Baby running the shops, those guys running the carnival cannon) and some of the normal people (e.g. the people from your village). My main thing that I like to do in games is explore, and TP had a lot of that *cough* collectibles *cough*, though. The Xant storyline was kind of pointless (unless they set another game totally in that world sometime) and don't like the ending (
Midna preventing you from ever seeing her again by taking part of the mirror with her
). The boss fight with
Zelda
and then the one with
Ganon
out on the plain was not as good as Wind Waker but was way better than the terrible and annoying giant black creature that you have to attack his toes in Skyward Sword. (o_O)

As I said, the GameCube one wasn't super great, but it was a fine Zelda, in my opinion. Did not like the changes in the Wii version, particularly the controls, though.
Nothing about Twilight Princess 'redeemed' itself for me. The things I play Zelda games for: Engaging dungeons with unique mechanics built on new forms of exploration developed as you unlock the unique mechanics of the gradual dungeons, and a unified plot that ties that all together, etc. were basically crap in TP all the way through.

The exploration in TP is so easily ignored. The areas of the field are shades of 'drab', and you can teleport in between them quickly, with so little to do between the different zones. Not only that, but the dungeon items influence so little, there's virtually no reason to actually do anything different anyway.

The characters/NPCs that are plot centric just felt so utterly inane too. I couldn't bring myself to be ever really invested in the plot associated with any of it. (shrug) I never played Skyward Sword, because I never owned a Wii, so I can't really compare the fight you're talking about there in spoilers, but it sounds even worse, so, I mean, maybe the series really was falling off at that point.

I don't think that Twilight Princess is even a very good game, let alone a fine Zelda. It wasn't a buggy mess or anything, it certainly was functional, but I couldn't give it anything higher than a 5.
 
May 1, 2010
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Either a slim Xbox One is coming soon or they are about to come with a new plan to move Xbox Ones.

Things just don't seem right with them having the price $50 cheaper than the PS4 & Stores coming up with deals to sell Xbox One but it still seem not to be moving as fast as the PS4.
 
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
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370
Either a slim Xbox One is coming soon or they are about to come with a new plan to move Xbox Ones.

Things just don't seem right with them having the price $50 cheaper than the PS4 & Stores coming up with deals to sell Xbox One but it still seem not to be moving as fast as the PS4.
If a slim Xbox One is coming, expect it to drop to $299 as well. If a slim model is not in the cards (I don't see it not happening), a $299 is going to have to happen anyway.

Or actually, discontinue the 500GB model while dropping that to $299, and make the 1TB sku default while dropping that to $349.
 
May 1, 2010
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If a slim Xbox One is coming, expect it to drop to $299 as well. If a slim model is not in the cards (I don't see it not happening), a $299 is going to have to happen anyway.

Or actually, discontinue the 500GB model while dropping that to $299, and make the 1TB sku default while dropping that to $349.

It's been selling for around $299 since November most places isn't selling the Xbox One for $349 without extra stuff thrown in. it's already basically $299 they just don't show it as $299 because MS haven't officially cut the price. Xbox One is $300 almost everywhere & where it isn't $300 you get gift cards & other stuff to make up for the price.







 
May 1, 2010
13,523
398
755
Either a slim Xbox One is coming soon or they are about to come with a new plan to move Xbox Ones.

Things just don't seem right with them having the price $50 cheaper than the PS4 & Stores coming up with deals to sell Xbox One but it still seem not to be moving as fast as the PS4.
Funny I made this post right before Phil Spencer started talking about moving to a new console model.


But even with this plan to keep the hardware refreshed I wonder if the PS4 will still make them look bad?

Say Xbox One 2.0 comes out in 2016 & Xbox 3.0 come out in 2018 but in all Xbox One still is only at 50 million while PS4 is at 100 million & Xbox One has wasted 2 upgrade cycles so when 2020 come around & Xbox One 4.0 is ready to release it's not a big deal & still moving low amount of units while PS5 is a big deal & basically have the next gen race all to it's self because Xbox One 4.0 is still trying to please Xbox One 1.0 , Xbox One 2.0 & Xbox One 3.0 user bases & can't take advantage of the hardware that's inside of Xbox One 4.0 because it's user base is small compared to Xbox One as a whole.
 
Jan 16, 2009
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Funny I made this post right before Phil Spencer started talking about moving to a new console model.


But even with this plan to keep the hardware refreshed I wonder if the PS4 will still make them look bad?

Say Xbox One 2.0 comes out in 2016 & Xbox 3.0 come out in 2018 but in all Xbox One still is only at 50 million while PS4 is at 100 million & Xbox One has wasted 2 upgrade cycles so when 2020 come around & Xbox One 4.0 is ready to release it's not a big deal & still moving low amount of units while PS5 is a big deal & basically have the next gen race all to it's self because Xbox One 4.0 is still trying to please Xbox One 1.0 , Xbox One 2.0 & Xbox One 3.0 user bases & can't take advantage of the hardware that's inside of Xbox One 4.0 because it's user base is small compared to Xbox One as a whole.
Or Microsoft could see things turning up for them when people see a vastly more powerful system out in 2017, capable of running all PS4 and Xbox One games at 1080p and 60fps.

It's hard to say when we have no idea what they'll even do.
 
Mar 20, 2007
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Funny I made this post right before Phil Spencer started talking about moving to a new console model.


But even with this plan to keep the hardware refreshed I wonder if the PS4 will still make them look bad?

Say Xbox One 2.0 comes out in 2016 & Xbox 3.0 come out in 2018 but in all Xbox One still is only at 50 million while PS4 is at 100 million & Xbox One has wasted 2 upgrade cycles so when 2020 come around & Xbox One 4.0 is ready to release it's not a big deal & still moving low amount of units while PS5 is a big deal & basically have the next gen race all to it's self because Xbox One 4.0 is still trying to please Xbox One 1.0 , Xbox One 2.0 & Xbox One 3.0 user bases & can't take advantage of the hardware that's inside of Xbox One 4.0 because it's user base is small compared to Xbox One as a whole.
First of all, if they do this plan then they care more about the number of Xbox users in their overall ecosystem which would be the various Xbox models + Windows 10 instead of just Xbox console sales.

Second, if they do start this plan then the Xbox consoles will not be supported forever. It would more than likely be similar to what we see with iOS devices. The first iPhone released in 2007. It's 2016 now and the iPhones that are supported are 4S (2011) and up.

Each Xbox model will probably be supported for the length of an average gaming gen -- so 6 years or so. However, I can't see MS releasing a new Xbox model every year (like Apple/iOS). I would say a minimum of a new Xbox every 3 years with their being two relevant/supported Xbox models each year once this plan starts.

So, if we (for example) see a new Xbox model this year then the 2013 Xbox One should still be supported until 2019 or so with the same games working on both models. It's just that this year's model would have more power & run games better. People who don't care about that and/or want a cheaper model can buy the original, 2013 Xbox One.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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Mars
Say Xbox One 2.0 comes out in 2016 & Xbox 3.0 come out in 2018 but in all Xbox One still is only at 50 million while PS4 is at 100 million & Xbox One has wasted 2 upgrade cycles so when 2020 come around & Xbox One 4.0 is ready to release it's not a big deal & still moving low amount of units while PS5 is a big deal & basically have the next gen race all to it's self.
Whole lot of assumptions about what both MS and Sony are going to do here. A whole lot of assumptions that may end up being very wrong. You should revisit your hypothesis in mid to late June.
 
May 1, 2010
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398
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Or Microsoft could see things turning up for them when people see a vastly more powerful system out in 2017, capable of running all PS4 and Xbox One games at 1080p and 60fps.

It's hard to say when we have no idea what they'll even do.
First of all, if they do this plan then they care more about the number of Xbox users in their overall ecosystem which would be the various Xbox models + Windows 10 instead of just Xbox console sales.

Second, if they do start this plan then the Xbox consoles will not be supported forever. It would more than likely be similar to what we see with iOS devices. The first iPhone released in 2007. It's 2016 now and the iPhones that are supported are 4S (2011) and up.

Each Xbox model will probably be supported for the length of an average gaming gen -- so 6 years or so. However, I can't see MS releasing a new Xbox model every year (like Apple/iOS). I would say a minimum of a new Xbox every 3 years with their being two relevant/supported Xbox models each year once this plan starts.

So, if we (for example) see a new Xbox model this year then the 2013 Xbox One should still be supported until 2019 or so with the same games working on both models. It's just that this year's model would have more power & run games better. People who don't care about that and/or want a cheaper model can buy the original, 2013 Xbox One.
Whole lot of assumptions about what both MS and Sony are going to do here. A whole lot of assumptions that may end up being very wrong. You should revisit your hypothesis in mid to late June.
"But even with this plan to keep the hardware refreshed I wonder if the PS4 will still make them look bad?"


I'm not sure if that part went over y'all head.


Anyway I think it's a good idea on one hand but also wonder if they can pull it off & if it would workout better or worse for them.

What work for Apple/Android don't always work for consoles & what we are seeing now with the PS4 killing Xbox One & Wii U is a example of MS & Nintendo looking at what is working for tablets/phones & trying to read the market & missing it while Sony read the market differently & avoided going head on with the tablet/phone market & the PS4 came out on top. The updated hardware is working for tablets & phones because they do so much more & gamers are just a small part of that system & the small changes to the gaming side of these tablets as they come out with new hardware each year don't make or break them but that will be a lot different for a console. which is why I feel that if MS want to do this they need to move away from the Xbox name & move to Windows Set top boxs with a new name because the way it look they used the gamers then tried to make them second class citizens on a name brand that was built on gamers.
 
Mar 20, 2007
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"But even with this plan to keep the hardware refreshed I wonder if the PS4 will still make them look bad?"


I'm not sure if that part went over y'all head.
No, I saw that part. I just don't think it's that important though as this plan would take things outside of "this console's sales" vs. "the other console's sales". It would make things FAR more interesting than that in my opinion.

The updated hardware is working for tablets & phones because they do so much more & gamers are just a small part of that system & the small changes to the gaming side of these tablets as they come out with new hardware each year don't make or break them but that will be a lot different for a console. which is why I feel that if MS want to do this they need to move away from the Xbox name & move to Windows Set top boxs with a new name because the way it look they used the gamers then tried to make them second class citizens on a name brand that was built on gamers.
No, it wouldn't be smart to move away from the Xbox name in my opinion. Too widely known as a gaming brand at this point to start from scratch and/or drop it.

There would definitely be some gamers who would be upset if there's a new version of the Xbox One that could play the same games but with more power, BUT we've seen new (slimmer) models of consoles come out for more than a decade now. Slim models thus far have been nothing more than just the same console with a smaller size and a few new console features here and there (like new ports or power/eject buttons).

Wouldn't it be a better buy if a slim version of a console was all of that on top of more power in the box to run the same games better? I mean, the people who would probably get mad/vocal about an "Xbox One.5" the most would be people who would probably buy a smaller model of a console they enjoy playing on anyway with no other improvements outside of that (i.e.: the bigger gamers). Wouldn't it make more sense to be happy that a slim model of a console is more than just a smaller size (instead of feeling like a "second class citizen")? Well, just as long as the new, slimmer model isn't a ridiculous price?
 
May 1, 2010
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No, I saw that part. I just don't think it's that important though as this plan would take things outside of "this console's sales" vs. "the other console's sales". It would make things FAR more interesting than that in my opinion.



No, it wouldn't be smart to move away from the Xbox name in my opinion. Too widely known as a gaming brand at this point to start from scratch and/or drop it.

There would definitely be some gamers who would be upset if there's a new version of the Xbox One that could play the same games but with more power, BUT we've seen slim models of consoles come out for more than a decade now. Slim models thus far have been nothing more than just a smaller size with a few new console features here and there.

Wouldn't it be a better buy if a slim version of a console was that on top of more power in the box to run the same games better? I mean, the people who would probably get mad/vocal about an "Xbox One.5" the most would be people who would probably buy a slim model of a console they enjoy playing on anyway (the bigger gamers).

I mean move away from the Xbox name for the hardware that's going to be refreshed over & over again because the multi media consumers will be the people who will be going out to buy new products for the upgrades not the gamers. They can go beyond Xbox while still selling the Xbox games.