Bad product? The Wii U is great, the Wii on the other hand...
As a Nintendo fan, I like the Wii U but it's not a strong product and never was. Whereas the Wii was the right thing in the right place at the right time. The huge gulf in sales between the two backs that up.
So if Nintendo is releasing it this fiscal year, what new games could they possibly have ready for this? I'm not talking about new versions of Wii U games. Those will barely matter. Between issues with the development of Starfox and Zelda, I don't see how Nintendo is ready for strong launch.
I think they certainly could have a new 3D Mario and a new game from Retro. If the NX launches Holiday 2016, it'd be about three years since 3D World and Tropical Freeze. I think there are other developers under their banner that haven't shipped a new, substantial game in a while. And then there's always the possibility of third-party partnerships, like with Bayonetta 2.
Zelda should definitely be on the NX, in addition to the Wii U. That, and a new 3D Mario game would constitute a "strong launch", IMO. And there's potential for more than that.
But I don't think the launch lineup in and of itself will dictate how successful the NX will be. Great games at launch is great, but is the system itself attractive? What about its features? Price? Third party support? Will there be a steady flow of games post-launch, or more droughts? A lot of questions still remain.
I have a pretty high level of confidence in Nintendo delivering a strong software launch. What I don't know is if the NX is going to be a product that people who aren't Nintendo fans are going to actually want. I think until we know more about what the NX
actually is, it's crazy to predict how well we think it's going to do.