SuperBlank
Member
After Niji, Caviar F, and Torte City ended up being pretty spot on, as I see things it seems all but confirmed NX is gonna be heading our way later this year...
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Pachter thinks NX will release in 2017, won't be very good.
- Thread starter Hoje0308
- Start date
Candescence
Member
I do see Nintendo continuing its handheld tradition and having the NX handheld be a generation ahead of the previous one. Nintendo's handhelds have had a fairly consistent pattern in terms of power being equivalent to (or slightly better than) a specific console (the Game Boy is basically a monochrome NES, though the Game Boy Colour was basically a 'super' NES with a worse screen resolution). The GBA was a slight better handheld SNES, the DS was a slightly better N64, the 3DS was roughly Gamecube/Wii level (though the stereoscopic rendering took up some of its GPU power), and I imagine the NX handheld is basically gonna be a portable Wii U with a more modern CPU and GPU.
Really, the only real reason the 3DS is considered 'weak' is because the Vita leapfrogged it in terms of power like the PSP before it did with the DS, and mobile devices getting away with better specs due to much quicker upgrade releases and the devices themselves being overall more expensive, and even then, actual capabilities aren't equivalent because mobile devices aren't dedicated gaming machines by any stretch. Though, really, a generation behind the PS4/Xbone is probably for the best price-wise for a handheld, pulling a Vita would probably be an extremely bad idea, as the Vita itself demonstrated, as great as the device was.
Really, the only real reason the 3DS is considered 'weak' is because the Vita leapfrogged it in terms of power like the PSP before it did with the DS, and mobile devices getting away with better specs due to much quicker upgrade releases and the devices themselves being overall more expensive, and even then, actual capabilities aren't equivalent because mobile devices aren't dedicated gaming machines by any stretch. Though, really, a generation behind the PS4/Xbone is probably for the best price-wise for a handheld, pulling a Vita would probably be an extremely bad idea, as the Vita itself demonstrated, as great as the device was.
Their handheld follow the pattern you're describing, yes, but they are 10 years/ 2 gens behind, not one.
Where you're saying "slighty better", IMO that's "slighty less powerfull", and/or more often with less features.
GBC certainly isn't a SNES. The GBA have less buttons than the SNES, that was a problem for straight ports. The DS wasn't at ease with 3D games, that made it certainly a lesser N64, and hadn't a stick.
3DS probably can do more without the 3D, but I wouldn't say it was a Wii either. With your conclusion people will expect HD for the next handheld... While 540p seems to be the most possible choice at this point.
Anyway, this pattern will disappear. We have to look at the iOS/iPhone/iPad release pattern.
We know that's what Iwata had in mind. If only there was a professional, video-games focused business analyst to speak about this...
Pretty much.
540p seems like the optimal way to go to easily upscale to 1080p if the console library is shareable. On tech, there's just not a whole lot that can be done with dedicated systems. Even the Vita cuts corners using dynamic resolution to keep a steady framerate. If the tech is there, 540p should be fine and everything will be native resolution and look good with good frame rate. Phones have a luxury of contracts and other factors that allow them to be far more advanced than a dedicated system. Though phones also have the problem of battery life and despite some excellent capabilities, we're less likely to see some of it than we are on a dedicated platform.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
That being said, it still is a huge uphill battle to even reach the WiiU's numbers. It's definitely no guaranteed success. Not like they're riding any momentum in the console space.
That's not saying anything.
Zelda is not a major release?
TLZ
Banned
maquiladora
Member
I think he's wrong about 2017....as for the rest, too early to say.
ChaoticBlue
Member
ps4 came with 8gb of GDDR ram which was pretty beastly when high end graphic cards at the time only had 2-4 gb at most and were more expensive than the ps4.
anyways nintendo have not made a console that appeal to me since the snes. why can't nintendo just make a pure gaming console without a gimmick like back in the day with the gamecube?
I did like the gamecube which i think is better than the n64, wii and wii u combined. this nx doesn't sound like a pure gaming console from nintendo. it will probably have a gimmick again.
LOL @ Pachter having stans.
Breh nobody is checking for Nintendo in the console market except for loyalists who will buy anything they put out and I'm willing to bet that a good amount of those consumers will be taking the wait and see approach after what happened with the Wii U.
The company hasnt put themselves in a position to get the benefit of the doubt.
And this assumption is based off what exactly? Wii U sales?
Breh nobody is checking for Nintendo in the console market except for loyalists who will buy anything they put out and I'm willing to bet that a good amount of those consumers will be taking the wait and see approach after what happened with the Wii U.
The company hasnt put themselves in a position to get the benefit of the doubt.
Orniletter
Banned
And...the...punchline...is...?
Like, I get that some people love seeing him act like a prick, but where is the joke ?
Langdon Alger
Banned
I have a $40 smart phone and it runs games that look much better than 3DS games.
Orniletter
Banned
clevbrowns94
Member
First post nails it as always.
Langdon Alger
Banned
LG Sunrise. Games like Dead Trigger 2, and Modern Combat 5. Granted, those games aren't very fun, and the LG Sunrise has a trash screen, but it's gotta be more powerful than a 3DS if it's running those games.
Manmademan
Member
because the gamecube was nintendo's biggest failure not named "virtual boy"...until they released the wiiU.
they can't compete with "pure gaming console." They view trying to compete with sony and microsoft on their own turf as pretty much suicide.
I am puzzled at what you r laughing at....Wii sold over 100 million and Wii u is a colossal failure compared to Wii...There are possibly fanboys and people with other consoles who bought the Wii u....
You think people are so desperate thet they are being held back by ropes till a new Nintendo console is released?? To rush and pick up a new Nintendo console as everything else is useless???
jeff_rigby
Banned
2016 release means it's 28nm technology with a semi-custom design likely based on AMD Carrizo with possibly more GPU CUs. Since it uses DDR3 or DDR4 it's going to be limited to XB1 performance PLUS any efficiencies in the newer GPU design. Carrizo supports power islands for the GPU blocks (plural) so it can support being tablet or Desktop (connected to the mains) performance which I think also supports the rumors. (It can't easily use GDDR5 memory because the ARM blocks would use too much power in Standby and Media power modes).
IF it were 2017 it could have been 14nm Zen + Polaris + Interposer/ HBM and not limited to XB1 performance.
Patcher is using the 2016 release date plus AMD roadmap in his prediction nothing more.
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I am sorry but are you crazy??? Nintendo can easily put out a console that is more powerful than both ps4 aand xbx1. They (sony and ms) are using computers parts... its not like they have to spend 3 billion on r & d to fund their own processor.
jeff_rigby
Banned
Not easily in 2016 and not cheaply in 2017.
Wasn't Carrizo rumored to feature a GDDR5 memory controller? Has this ever been confirmed?
Anyway, if it comes on 28nm I can also see something in the ballpark of Carrizo, I wouldn't rule out 14/16nm in 2016 though, especially as it probably is a late year release. Then I could easily see something like PS4 performance (8 ARMv8 CPU cores, 1024 Polaris shader units, 8GB GDDR5), this would probably be even smaller than Carrizo.
test_account
XP-39C²
Yeah, this might be why, indeed.
But if we have to disregards everything he said because he doesnt know what the NX is, including his guess on the launch date, we also have to disregard everyone else's assumption here as well (including what you say about a 2016 fall launch) because we dont know what the NX is either
He bases his assumption that Nintendo wont change much from what they've done recently.
jeff_rigby
Banned
The only AMD product using 14nm in 2016 is the Zen CPU...no HBM either in APUs. 2017 for Zen + Polaris + HBM but likely too expensive for Nintendo and no sense using HBM unless a large GPU requires the memory bandwidth which means it's a really high end high performance and expensive APU. Does that sound like Nintendo?
The Carrizo design can't use GDDR5 as it's targeted at Tablet and Desktop with Southbridge part of the SoC. It's a true SoC with h.265 (HEVC) support. If memory were GDDR5 then minimum power modes would have to support active GDDR5 memory which is above the 1 watt range and total system power in standby is supposed to be below 5oo mw.
The rumors including ARM were because of the portable and desktop functionality. Carrizo is an X-86 APU that can do portable and Desktop. It has an ARM block inside the APU (Southbridge, Northbridge, Codecs, Player and Trustzone TEE) and AMD has been working with ARM emulation using their APUs. Out of the box and not semi-custom Carrizo is a 1TB APU compared to the XB1 1.3 TB and the PS4 1.8 TB.
Pokemaniac
Member
I'm not really an expert on such things (I'm more of a software guy), but Carrizo looks a bit power hungry to use in a handheld. While an x86 handheld is not completely implausible, an ARM based one is vastly more likely, since ARM chips are typically more performant at that power envelope.
Since the handheld is likely to use ARM, it makes sense to make the console ARM too, since ARM can scale up fairly well (better than x86 scales down) and using different architectures for each system requires Nintendo to duplicate a ton of OS work and generally is going to limit any potential shared library aspects (unless Nintendo has all devs submit games as an Intermediate Language, which comes with its own set of issues).
Wrong, all of their new GPUs coming in summer use this process node.
Also just because it isn't on roadmaps doesn't mean a custom APU (like Nintendo would use) won't use it.
Don't get me wrong, I won't get my hopes up for them using the 14nm node, but I wouldn't rule it out completely.
EDIT: In this article it has been speculated that Kaveri / Carrizo have a GDDR5 memory controller on die: http://www.extremetech.com/computin...eaked-shows-greater-focus-on-power-efficiency
Graphics Horse
Member
The reason people think they will use a semi custom ARM based apu is because AMD said they were developing such an APU for a customer in 2016. It is not something you're going to find on a commercial product list right now.
No, he's not. That would mean Pachter is paying attention to tech progression and that's a falsehood. He's time and again shown he has no clue what is going on with tech.
He already stated WHY he said those things when he said them. It's based on Nintendo's last two generations where they released underwhelming hardware and he feels it's 2017 because Nintendo has always announced home consoles 18 months before release.
As for why it will fail, he doesn't seen lightning in a bottle again like the Wii had and underperforming hardware that lacks third party support = likely sales flop unless priced so cheap that anyone would pick one up just to play Mario.
Graphics Horse
Member
Correct. See recent answer on ps4 remodel, he was mainly concerned with HDD heat (?!) and never said anything about die shrinks. But he does freely admit he doesn't know about the tech side.
Are you talking about the handheld variant? Not sure why it would not be easy to put out a console more powerful than the PS4 three years later.
Polaris on 14nm is still expected for this year, although personally I'm guessing it'll be a couple of relatively small dies intended primarily for laptops (where the additional cost over 28nm pays off in increased perf/W). I certainly don't expect 14nm for a home console (and definitely not this year), but it's technically possible for a handheld this year (with 8 A53 cores and 4 GCN CUs the die size would be comparable to an upper mid-range mobile SoC, which we'll be seeing on 14nm by the latter half of this year).
I'd ignore Carrizo for a few reasons. Firstly, they have the time and resources to put together a design "from scratch", so there's no reason to modify an existing chip like Carrizo. Secondly, plenty of aspects of Carrizo just aren't suitable for a console (and certainly not a handheld). The Excavator cores just don't offer good enough performance per mm² and performance per Watt for a console (let alone a handheld), just like Bulldozer/Piledriver cores would have been poor choices for PS4/XBO. ARM is the natural choice for both handheld and console here, as A53 cores offer excellent performance per Watt in a handheld TDP and A72s would be competitive with (or even exceed) the performance of Jaguar/Puma in a home console environment (and AMD themselves are replacing their big cat x86 line with ARM). Carrizo also has many PC-centric blocks, and a very narrow memory bus, which would cripple a console's performance.
Regarding HBM, while I'd agree it's unlikely, I wouldn't completely rule it out given Nintendo's history of exotic high-bandwidth memory (1T-SRAM, eDRAM, FCRAM, etc.). They usually go with split memory pools, and without the option of eDRAM on 28nm they may decide to go with, say, 1GB HBM and 6GB DDR4 for the home console. Unlikely, but with Nintendo you never know.
Yeah..? What's the joke, then?
Sheriff_Battlesnake
Banned
Idk why this concept of console/handheld hybrid just clicked for me. So it would still be running on the console but streaming to your portable device? That sounds like a dream.
Saying it won't be good based on their history... idk, putting the cart before the horse? But I guess all we can learn from is experience.
Saying it won't be good based on their history... idk, putting the cart before the horse? But I guess all we can learn from is experience.
I have a mild anxiety related to NX in how it will affect Nintendo's overall health as a company.
It just feels like they've been chasing gimmicks for over a decade and the market is shifting away from their wheelhouse ideas. It's great that they're consolidating their handheld and console depts. if the rumors are true. But I think pursuing hybrid handheld in any form is a ship that has sailed in a post-smartphone world.
I hope they do well in the end as I respect the unique brand of gaming that they bring to the table. But man, I just can help but worry for them between their flagging console sales and an overall handheld market that seems to have dried up at an alarming rate.
Perhaps diversifying into the mobile space can prove healthy for them if they dive in with both feet and offer "real" games, not spin-off companion apps like Miitomo.
Good luck to them either way.
It just feels like they've been chasing gimmicks for over a decade and the market is shifting away from their wheelhouse ideas. It's great that they're consolidating their handheld and console depts. if the rumors are true. But I think pursuing hybrid handheld in any form is a ship that has sailed in a post-smartphone world.
I hope they do well in the end as I respect the unique brand of gaming that they bring to the table. But man, I just can help but worry for them between their flagging console sales and an overall handheld market that seems to have dried up at an alarming rate.
Perhaps diversifying into the mobile space can prove healthy for them if they dive in with both feet and offer "real" games, not spin-off companion apps like Miitomo.
Good luck to them either way.
BrokenFiction
Member
Nintendo should parlay their off-TV play expertise and join MS and Sony on the cross-play-on-a-PC bandwagon. I would love to have all 3 doing this.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
That would require Nintendo releasing their games on another console or PC...
BrokenFiction
Member
Sony isn't necessarily doing that.
I believe they're talking about streaming to a PC, but I wouldn't hold your breath for that.
Edit: Or am I misreading and they're talking about cross-platform multiplayer with PC? Nintendo's allowed that for quite a while now, it's just MS who are late to the party on that one.
All 3 are doing this.
4 consoles with gimmicks:
Wii: Huge success
WiiU: Flop
DS: Huge success
3DS: Moderately succesful
NX will not be a contuination of Wii/WiiU.
NX will not be a hybrid. There is not even rumour it will be a hybrid.
BrokenFiction
Member
No, I meant streaming to PC just in the same way that Sony has announced will be available in the 3.5 firmware update.
Lionel Richie
Member
Why is this funny?
hydragonwarrior
Member
I suppose it's hard to look away from gimmicks when the Wii and DS succeeded so well. Even after the abysmal success of the Wii U (relative to Wii), I can tell they're still looking towards the stars in making that happen again.
And more importantly, this may be the cheaper route for them to take - to be the most different, not the most powerful.
NX will be a cut from the Wii brand. It will be something different.
You think it'll be a cut from the DS brand, as well?