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NPD Sales Results for February 2016 [Up1: Fire Emblem]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Pennywise83
Banned
Of course a million units wasn't likely. I don't think, though, the rule to say whether a game is successful or not is the comparison with Japanese sales.
Since there's some fanbase willing to buy games in the franchise, I bet BN doesn't want to leave money on the table and exploit the renewed Western popularity. Next Order should be localized as soon as possible.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
where did you get the dawn and dusk numbers
I searched the archive but "digimon" didn't yield too many numbers
Welfare
Member
Has MKX already surpassed this?
KawabataSan
Member
Yes, as did the 2011 game.
Any numbers for Bayonetta 2 in February?
It sold over 2.36 million by end of 2015, so even by a good margin...
It sold over 2.36 million by end of 2015, so even by a good margin...
slavesnyder
Member
Indeed. Did you find this on Polygon?
Ryng's pie-chart is used correctly, so not much of a joke beyond the original joke.
CosmicQueso
Member
So $330m for The Division week 1.
At $75/user accounting for season passes and deluxe SKUs, that's 4.4m units sold. At $80 (assuming 50% of week 1 buyers bought Deluxe/Season Pass) that's 4.1m.
Let's say it's 4.4m.
Call it 50% NA, 50% ROW, 2.2m NA. US is about 90% of that so US at about 2m units week 1.
If they get 40% digital week 1 (accounting for PC), that makes it 1.2m physical, 0.8m digital week 1.
NPD month ends April 2nd, so The Division will have 4 weeks of sales in the next NPD?
1.2m physical week 1, then maybe 0.4m, 0.3m, 0.2m the rest of the month gets us to somewhere near 2.1m month 1 packaged US?
That would be amazing.
At $75/user accounting for season passes and deluxe SKUs, that's 4.4m units sold. At $80 (assuming 50% of week 1 buyers bought Deluxe/Season Pass) that's 4.1m.
Let's say it's 4.4m.
Call it 50% NA, 50% ROW, 2.2m NA. US is about 90% of that so US at about 2m units week 1.
If they get 40% digital week 1 (accounting for PC), that makes it 1.2m physical, 0.8m digital week 1.
NPD month ends April 2nd, so The Division will have 4 weeks of sales in the next NPD?
1.2m physical week 1, then maybe 0.4m, 0.3m, 0.2m the rest of the month gets us to somewhere near 2.1m month 1 packaged US?
That would be amazing.
slavesnyder
Member
I really hate the phrase "the thirst is real", but it seems that Ubi combined genre and setting that people wanted.
This is excellent engineering.
(thanks for the maths)
On second thought: same was done with Primal. Coincidence?
CosmicQueso
Member
Show your work. Because that would be very high given the week 1 numbers unless you think Premium Edition/Season Pass attach is on the lower end, making the ARPU closer to $60 in week 1.
We know worldide it outsold Destiny which sold 417,000 first week in UK.
But The Division in UK has sold less than 332,000 at retail, which is way less than Destiny, and even less than 388,000 Watch_Dogs.
I know this is UK only, but i fell like Europe is similar to this, or even worse. Like i said, in Italy the hype for Watch Dogs was way bigger.
I just believe a good part of those sales are from US.
And i don't expect that huge digital sales... We will see.
CosmicQueso
Member
So you're thinking more like 55 or 60% NA? Could be. But Ubi games traditionally share pretty well in Europe. Good times for them though. After last year, this must feel like an amazingly good start to 2016 with Primal and Division.
It was an emotional time.
I know, but Division is a shooter, and shooter sells a lot in USA.
Like i said in Europe Watch Dogs, and even Far Cry or Assassin's Creed are BIG. But i expect The Division to be difference and sells a lot of it's sales in USA.
And well deserved, 2016 is gonna be an AMAZING year for Ubisoft. Don't forget Watch Dogs 2 this holiday!
What said Rex about The Division?
Normal freak out as people realize that the games you like are not the games most people like making you feel alone and on the verge of being overrun. In this case, The Division being the game "most people like." It pushed him pretty hard, he cracked a little, and was banned. He'll come back stronger, for sure.
Honestly, i think we REALLY should realize The Division could have a chance to outsell Destiny firts month in the US.
I know The Division has bigger digital sales and all, but still, maybe 3 million isn't that impossible haha.
I doubt it, but pls don't underestimate how big this game is, so far it crushed all predictions.
Seriusly, at first i thought it was not gonna be bigger than Watch Dogs, let alone beat Destiny.
thanks.
I know The Division has bigger digital sales and all, but still, maybe 3 million isn't that impossible haha.
I doubt it, but pls don't underestimate how big this game is, so far it crushed all predictions.
Seriusly, at first i thought it was not gonna be bigger than Watch Dogs, let alone beat Destiny.
thanks.
slavesnyder
Member
Why? Console sales don't matter any more. Plus, they want to optimize profit.
I guess they calculated the sweet spot between selling less but earning more per console.
I just wonder if they reduced production lines at Foxconn, because I guess they expected to sell way more (also worldwide) and channels and warehouses should be well supplied.
TOP 5 BIGGER LAUNCH GAMES ON XBOX ONE (NPD)
1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III - 1,935,000
2) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - 1,460,000
3) Fallout 4 - 1,274,000
4) Titanfall - 1,083,000
5) Halo 5 - 935,000
Where will The Division chart? I will go with #4, not as big as Fallout 4, but bigger than Titanfall.
1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III - 1,935,000
2) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - 1,460,000
3) Fallout 4 - 1,274,000
4) Titanfall - 1,083,000
5) Halo 5 - 935,000
Where will The Division chart? I will go with #4, not as big as Fallout 4, but bigger than Titanfall.
theprodigy
Member
well....
US and UK were Destiny>Watch Dogs, continental Europe was flipped
it's definitely possible that in the rest of Europe The Division>Destiny
It looks like Ms is going big time into the premium space with their recent hardware offerings. As
Apple has shown, that's where the hardware margins are, and I think Xbox might be part of that. We could be seeing a console version of the elite controller before too long. I just don't know if they care about selling cheap-o hardware.
It is... but i just don't think so. I already said why in the old thread. For who missed:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=197904453&postcount=448
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
330M$ in just 5 days, 1.2M peak concurrent users over the weekend
The Division is a beast
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1197464
The Division is a beast
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1197464
slavesnyder
Member
Is VR still no relevant sales driver for Ps4 consoles? Many here were/are very sceptical, some said it will be a fad, some said it depends on the price.
Now that we have the price, what's to see in your virtual tea leaves?
Now that we have the price, what's to see in your virtual tea leaves?
RealityCheque
Banned
There are no devs at Rockstar anymore. Now they just employ 100 interns who do a daily count of the money.
GTAV is an amazing thing on so many levels. Has there ever been a game with a tail that was as long and successful as this?
GTAV is an amazing thing on so many levels. Has there ever been a game with a tail that was as long and successful as this?
I mean, say the ps4 is $250 come October November. That's asking for new adopters to plunk down 650-700 for a console and vr. I don't think it would drive new sales. It'll sell on its own to the existing owners but that's a steep price for entry level
I decided to make a graph which show how insane looks the gap between PS4 and XB1 this year so far.
In only 2 months, the gap between PS4 / XB1 is already 255,000.
For a comparation, the gap in 2015 after 2 months was "only" 105,000, which is a 145% increase compared to last year.
In 2015, the PS4 / XB1 gap was bigger than 255,000 only after 6 months, in June thanks the Batman Arkham Knight bundle ( 278,000 ).
By end of October 2015, so before the holidays, the PS4 / XB1 gap was 347,000 YTD. But with this trend, the 2016 gap will be way bigger than this only next month...
2016 so far is a real PS4 domination.
In only 2 months, the gap between PS4 / XB1 is already 255,000.
For a comparation, the gap in 2015 after 2 months was "only" 105,000, which is a 145% increase compared to last year.
In 2015, the PS4 / XB1 gap was bigger than 255,000 only after 6 months, in June thanks the Batman Arkham Knight bundle ( 278,000 ).
By end of October 2015, so before the holidays, the PS4 / XB1 gap was 347,000 YTD. But with this trend, the 2016 gap will be way bigger than this only next month...
2016 so far is a real PS4 domination.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yep, you could see it coming last year. 2016 is going to be a tough year for X1 since PS4 will continue improving YoY. I think the introduction of a slim version and/or a price cut could help X1 mitigate some of what will happen.
slavesnyder
Member
No idea. We also talked about NX and Xbox1.5, two products we know neither date / price nor features or in the latter, even existence...
demigod
Member
Yeah it sure doesn't matter, that's why they have a limited time Spring $50 price drop across the board. /s
Welfare
Member
Oh hey look, a spring price cut. http://majornelson.com/2016/03/18/spring-sale-xbox-one-starting-at-299-and-a-week-of-game-deals/
It's $50 off on all bundles for a "limited time", so $299 for the 500GB and $349 on the 1TB.
Price cut will be in the last 2 weeks of the March NPD.
It's $50 off on all bundles for a "limited time", so $299 for the 500GB and $349 on the 1TB.
Price cut will be in the last 2 weeks of the March NPD.
DriftingSpirit
Member
So, what we are thinking for X1 this month now?
slavesnyder
Member
Biggest comeback since Lazarus.
299 is the price they should have had all along. Also they have to clean stock for the incremented, oculus-ready version.
People will wait until E3 for the 1.5 announcement.
Win due to Quantum Break pre-order build up. No one is going to buy a PS4 or Xbox One from here on out until the Xbox One.5 and PS4.5 releases!
(Just kidding -- I have no clue).
mejin
Member
Nah, we already saw PS4 beating XB1 even with $50 discount.
Welfare
Member
And we saw XB1 win in April 2015 when no one saw it coming. This price drop should help keep sales at least steady during April, like what happened last year.
2015
March
price: $349
Battlefield Hardline > 430,000
April
price: $125-175 at gamestop
Mortal Kombat X - 516,000
2016
March
price: $349; $299 the last 2 weeks
The Division > over 1 million? (probabily)
April
price: $299
Dark Souls 3 - some like 150K or 200K?
What's happen last year won't happen again, XB1 like the others console will drop like a rock in April.
Welfare
Member
This is a nation wide price drop, not a deal at one retailer that only worked if you sold your 360 or PS3 (and only recent models of those gave the full discount price). A price drop will not do less than that GS deal.
Not really apples to apples, but the Xbox received a $30 price drop to $149 from $179 on March 31, 2004 (final week of March) and went from selling 198k in March to selling 297k in April.
Welfare
Member
Alright, so this wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of February and March. This is where the weekly average aspect of this comparison is better than simple month to month, because March is a 5 week month while February is only 4. Putting this out for those that might wonder how consoles will perform this month.
2016 February Weekly averages
Xbox One: 249K / 4 = 62,250
PS4: 406K / 4 = 101,500
Wii U: 70K / 4 = 17,500
Some notes:
- March is after the huge tax returns month of February. Even with an additional week, March is often a lower sales month than February, and demand drops heavily as we go into the slow summer spring and summer months.
- The average weekly drop from February to March is around 30% for Xbox and PS, while Nintendo can be a bit random, spanning between 20-40%. Only twice has the weekly average increased from February to March this decade, and that was with the Wii in 2010 and the PS4 in 2014. Why the Wii? I don't know really. A final push of sales now that the system had a price drop ($249 > $199 back in October 09) and stock being readily available? PS4 can be explained easily, as a sufficient amount of stock had been sent and launch demand was fulfilled.
- The biggest March ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 721k back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 601k back in 2009.
- No price cut happened in March during the 7th gen in the US, and the XB1 is the first console since the Xbox to receive one during the month, which is this year.
Code:
2010
Xbox 360 February: 422K / 4 = 105,500
Xbox 360 March: 338K / 5 = 67,600
Weekly average down 36%
PS3 February: 360K / 4 = 90,000
PS3 March: 314K / 5 = 62,800
Weekly average down 30%
Wii February: 398K / 4 = 99,500
Wii March: 558K / 5 = 111,600
Weekly average up 12%
Code:
2011
Xbox 360 February: 535K / 4 = 133,750
Xbox 360 March: 433K / 5 = 86,600
Weekly average down 35%
PS3 February: 403K / 4 = 100,750
PS3 March: 365K / 5 = 73,000
Weekly average down 28%
Wii February: 455K / 4 = 113,750
Wii March: 290K / 5 = 58,000
Weekly average down 49%
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 February: 426K / 4 = 106,500
Xbox 360 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
Weekly average down 30%
PS3 February: 347K / 4 = 86,750
PS3 March: 337K / 5 = 67,400
Weekly average down 22%
Wii February: 224K / 4 = 56,000
Wii March: 175K / 5 = 35,000
Weekly average down 37%
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 February: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Xbox 360 March: 261K / 5 = 52,200
Weekly average down 31%
PS3 February: 262K / 4 = 65,500
PS3 March: 211K / 5 = 42,200
Weekly average down 36%
Wii February: 99K / 4 = 24,750
Wii March: 91K / 5 = 18,200
Weekly average down 26%
Wii U February: 66K / 4 = 16,500
Wii U March: 67K / 5 = 13,400
Weekly average down 19%
Code:
2014
Xbox 360 February: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Xbox 360 March: 111K / 5 = 22,200
Weekly average down 22%
Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500
Xbox One March: 311K / 5 = 62,200
Weekly average down 4%
PS3 February: 102K / 4 = 25,500
PS3 March: 68K / 5 = 13,600
Weekly average down 47%
PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250
PS4 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
Weekly average up 10%
Wii February: 30K / 4 = 7,500
Wii March: 28K / 5 = 5,600
Weekly average down 25%
Wii U February: 82K / 4 = 20,500
Wii U March: 70K / 5 = 14,000
Weekly average down 32%
Code:
2015
Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and no numbers were leaked for Feb-Oct)
Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000
Xbox One March: 236K / 5 = 47,200
Weekly average down 32%
PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500
PS4 March: 340K / 5 = 68,000
Weekly average down 20%
Wii U February: 95K / 4 = 23,750
Wii U March: 85K / 5 = 17,000
Weekly average down 28%2016 February Weekly averages
Xbox One: 249K / 4 = 62,250
PS4: 406K / 4 = 101,500
Wii U: 70K / 4 = 17,500
Some notes:
- March is after the huge tax returns month of February. Even with an additional week, March is often a lower sales month than February, and demand drops heavily as we go into the slow summer spring and summer months.
- The average weekly drop from February to March is around 30% for Xbox and PS, while Nintendo can be a bit random, spanning between 20-40%. Only twice has the weekly average increased from February to March this decade, and that was with the Wii in 2010 and the PS4 in 2014. Why the Wii? I don't know really. A final push of sales now that the system had a price drop ($249 > $199 back in October 09) and stock being readily available? PS4 can be explained easily, as a sufficient amount of stock had been sent and launch demand was fulfilled.
- The biggest March ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 721k back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 601k back in 2009.
- No price cut happened in March during the 7th gen in the US, and the XB1 is the first console since the Xbox to receive one during the month, which is this year.
DriftingSpirit
Member
So, PS4 can be flat/slightly up YoY but will be down MoM. Noted.
CosmicQueso
Member
So, one of the most obvious things that could happen surrounding the PS4 is on Kotaku and the world implodes.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I mean, I don't get the frustration. The idea itself isn't anything to be upset over. The industry is just shifting and reshaping itself. It can't maintain what it has been for so long.
The details are what matter. How will they handle implementing everything? That is the question that we need answered before we can truly decide how to feel.
Of course, the "react first, think later" impulse should be expected. Not to imply it is an inherently bad thing but yeah.