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March 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 12th

J

Javin98

Banned
I can't believe you guys started the party while I was slaughtering beasts in Yharnam. :p Anyway, my predictions:

[PS4] 383K
[XB1] 254K
[WIU] 60K
[3DS] 125K
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Finally a new episode of my favorite GAF-series: House of Charts

Thank you, Welfare for the awesome overview post, and to Donny for giving the mourning about the dawn of consoles a quiet place, so we can bury these freaks of nature in dignity.

Here are some numbers.

[PS4] 350K
[XB1] 250K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 50k
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
I'm with you on everything but the UFC one, Rex. TIME SHALL TELL.

RexNovis said:
My UFC prediction is basically just extrapolation based on the continued rise in popularity of MMA. UFC did pretty well last year and seemed to have some decent post debut sales as well so I'm betting that with the increased popularity for the sport and the expanded userbase we will see more Day 1 purchases this time around.
Click to expand...

There was some very deep discounting happening in week 2 for UFC, which would lead one to believe that sales came out very soft. Guess we'll have to wait and see. But if it did do well on the charts, I'm guessing it will have done so at a lower average retail price than other debut titles. Guess we'll have to wait and see on that.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
I'm with you on everything but the UFC one, Rex. TIME SHALL TELL.
Click to expand...

Maybe I'm not being bold enough then! Haha.

My UFC prediction is basically just extrapolation based on the continued rise in popularity of MMA. UFC did pretty well last year and seemed to have some decent post debut sales as well so I'm betting that with the increased popularity for the sport and the expanded userbase we will see more Day 1 purchases this time around.

But anyway yea it should be fun. I really enjoy doing these. Think I might make this a monthly thing going forward. Hopefully it'll spur some interesting discussion in the process.

CosmicQueso said:
There was some very deep discounting happening in week 2 for UFC, which would lead one to believe that sales came out very soft. Guess we'll have to wait and see. But if it did do well on the charts, I'm guessing it will have done so at a lower average retail price than other debut titles. Guess we'll have to wait and see on that.
Click to expand...

Oh? That's news to me. What sort of discounts? Yea that doesn't bode particularly well for my prediction. Oh well!
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
As usual, my guess for the TOP TEN:

1) The Division (PS4; XBO; PC)
2) Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)
3) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
4) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii U)
5) Far Cry: Primal ( PS4; XBO; PC)
6) UFC 2 (PS4; XBO)
7) MLB 15: The Show (PS4, PS3)
8) NBA 2K16 (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
9) Pokkén Tournament (Wii U)
10) Minecraft (360; XBO; PS4; PS3)
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
2 WiiU exclusive games potentially charting. That would be remarkable.

Can someone of you statistically gifted tell us when this happened the last time and how often this happened at all during WiiU's miserable life?

Bonus question:
How often did this happen for PS4 and XB1?
 
P

Purest 78

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
As usual, my guess for the TOP TEN:

1) The Division (PS4; XBO; PC)
2) Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)
3) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
4) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii U)
5) Far Cry: Primal ( PS4; XBO; PC)
6) UFC 2 (PS4; XBO)
7) NBA 2K16 (PS4; XBO; PC)
8) Pokkén Tournament (Wii U)
9) Minecraft (360; XBO; PS4; PS3)
10) Lego Marvel Avengers (360, PS4, XBO, Wii U, PS3, 3DS, Vita)
Click to expand...

You don't think The Show will make the top 10?
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Purest 78 said:
You don't think The Show will make the top 10?
Click to expand...

Shit, always forget it's a March release, i always think is for April. xD No, it will surely chart.

slavesnyder said:
2 WiiU exclusive games potentially charting. That would be remarkable.

Can someone of you statistically gifted tell us when this happened the last time and how often this happened at all during WiiU's miserable life?
Click to expand...

Smash count as exclusives? Cause NPD track 3DS and Wii U version...Anyway, if we count Smash Bros...

May NPD 2015

05.) Splatoon (Wii U)
10.) Super Smash Bros (3DS; Wii U)

slavesnyder said:
Bonus question:
How often did this happen for PS4 and XB1?
Click to expand...

August 2015

03.) Gears of War: Ultimate Edition (XBO)
06.) Rare replay (XBO)

RexNovis said:
Now for
RexNovis' Bold NPD Predictions
March 2016 Edition​
Click to expand...

I never understand if you truly believe those predictions or you just write this comment for fun, cause ok all, i understand one or two, but there are too many crazy predictions here. :p
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
I never understand if you truly believe those predictions or you just write this comment for fun, cause ok all, i understand one or two, but there are too many crazy predictions here. :p
Click to expand...

Basically they are meant to be risky and controversial predictions but must be at least reasonably possible. They are mostly to drum up some conversation in regards to their likelihood and my logic behind them. So, basically, in my head, they are anywhere from 15% to 70% probability of occurring and usually leaning far more on the lower end of the range in hopes of generating more dialogue.

TLDR they are meant as conversation starters and topic for discussion more so than actual predictions but still must be based on some sort of logic or reasoning that makes them at least feasible.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
RexNovis said:
Basically they are meant to be risky and controversial predictions but must be at least reasonably possible. They are mostly to drum up some conversation in regards to their likelihood and my logic behind them. So, basically, in my head, they are anywhere from 15% to 70% probability of occurring and usually leaning far more on the lower end of the range in hopes of generating more dialogue.

TLDR they are meant as conversation starters and topic for discussion more so than actual predictions but still must be based on some sort of logic or reasoning that makes them at least feasible.
Click to expand...

Well then... But i think there are some like 0.1% chance for the Mortal Kombat XL prediction.

I mean, really, TOP 5? XD

Just saying, in UK was under the TOP 30 in the launch week ( not launch month, launch WEEK ).

This mean it sold some ridiculus numbers like ~1,000/2,000 at most.

NPD TOP 5 in a month like this probabily need AT LEAST 200K ( most likely over 250K )... I just can't see how is possible. xD

The other predictions, well, i still disagree, but i can concede that 15% chance... :p
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
Well then... But i think there are some like 0.1% chance for the Mortal Kombat XL prediction.

I mean, really, TOP 5? XD

Just saying, in UK was under the TOP 30 in the launch week ( not launch month, launch WEEK ).

This mean it sold some ridiculus numbers like ~1,000/2,000 at most.

NPD TOP 5 in a month like this probabily need AT LEAST 200K ( most likely over 250K )... I just can't see how is possible. xD

The other predictions, well, i still disagree, but i can concede that 15% chance... :p
Click to expand...

Unless I am entirely mistaken Mortal Kombat generally sells significantly better in US than it does in UK. It has a massive amount of mainstream penetration and popularity in USA. I expect XL to be no exception to this.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Shit, always forget it's a March release, i always think is for April. xD No, it will surely chart.



Smash count as exclusives? Cause NPD track 3DS and Wii U version...Anyway, if we count Smash Bros...

May NPD 2015

05.) Splatoon (Wii U)
10.) Super Smash Bros (3DS; Wii U)



August 2015

03.) Gears of War: Ultimate Edition (XBO)
06.) Rare replay (XBO)
Click to expand...
Thanks, Ryng. Very kind as always
 
O

OléGunner

Member
RexNovis said:
Now for
RexNovis' Bold NPD Predictions
March 2016 Edition​

1. Mortal Kombat XL will rank in the top five for the month and at least double the debut sales for last month's SFV
​
Click to expand...


Hmmm most of your predictions were actually sound but this one grabbed me.
I feel like the MK X train has sailed basically and a debut double that of SFV would be about 400k right?

I don't see an avalanche of new customers for a year old fighting game at the $60 mark (not sure if it's full price), even if it is very mainstream.
Otherwise some nice discussion points you brought up!​
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
OléGunner;200090686 said:
Hmmm most of your predictions were actually sound but this one grabbed me.
I feel like the MK X train has sailed basically and a debut double that of SFV would be about 400k right?

I don't see an avalanche of new customers for a year old fighting game at the $60 mark (not sure if it's full price), even if it is very mainstream.
Otherwise some nice discussion points you brought up!
Click to expand...

Double SFV should be >360k in sales. It's certainly a high bar for a rerelease but I think the popularity of MK as well as the fanbase for the brands included (Predator, Jason, etc) could carry it to that. It's certainly one of the riskier ones but it's definitely doable IMO. I think we will see a lot of trade ins of MKX towards a purchase of MKXL.
 
O

OléGunner

Member
RexNovis said:
Double SFV should be >360k in sales. It's certainly a high bar for a rerelease but I think the popularity of MK as well as the fanbase for the brands included (Predator, Jason, etc) could carry it to that. It's certainly one of the riskier ones but it's definitely doable IMO. I think we will see a lot of trade ins of MKX towards a purchase of MKXL.
Click to expand...

I would've thought most hardcore fans would have got the DLC and feel no need to get the XL version.

This to me reads as a GoTY edition that caters to those who never had the game and were casually interested in it.
I don't see 360k being obtained but it is possible considering they weren't all that money big releases apart from The Division I guess..
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
RexNovis said:
Unless I am entirely mistaken Mortal Kombat generally sells significantly better in US than it does in UK. It has a massive amount of mainstream penetration and popularity in USA. I expect XL to be no exception to this.
Click to expand...

That's right, but again.
< 3k in the launch month in UK, most likely. 200K means >x66 better than in UK. For a comparation, Mortal Kombat X did about ~x10 times better in USA.

RexNovis said:
Double SFV should be >360k in sales.
Click to expand...

Nope. SFV did over 200,000 last month, so double of SFV is >400K.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
OléGunner;200091382 said:
I would've thought most hardcore fans would have got the DLC and feel no need to get the XL version.

This to me reads as a GoTY edition that caters to those who never had the game and were casually interested in it.
I don't see 360k being obtained but it is possible considering they weren't all that money big releases apart from The Division I guess..
Click to expand...

In my experience Mortal Kombat is still very much popular with the subset of gamers that don't often play online/ purchase things digitally and thus would not have purchased DLC or season passes from a digital storefront. Consequently this subset also seems to overlap heavily with the crowd that regularly trades in games. That's why I could see it getting a lot of trade in sales. But I could definitely be overestimating that.

Ryng_tolu said:
That's right, but again.
< 3k in the launch month in UK, most likely. 200K means >x66 better than in UK. For a comparation, Mortal Kombat X did about ~x10 times better in USA.

Nope. SFV did over 200,000 last month, so double of SFV is >400K.
Click to expand...

I thought we got confirmation that SFV sold less than 200k. Maybe I'm misremembering. Can anyone double confirm SFV debut sales were >200k and not <200k?
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
RexNovis said:
In my experience Mortal Kombat is still very much popular with the subset of gamers that don't often play online/ purchase things digitally. Consequently this subset overlaps heavily with the crowd that regularly trades in games. That's why I could see it getting a lot of trade in sales. But I could definitely be overestimating that.



I thought we got confirmation that SFV sold less than 200k. Maybe I'm misremembering. Can anyone double confirm SFV debut sales were >200k and not <200k?
Click to expand...

< 190,000 withouth Special edition, < 210,000 with special edition.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
< 190,000 withouth Special edition, < 210,000 with special edition.
Click to expand...

Yea so <190k. I was talking about the charted SKU in NPD. So MKXL would need to sell >360k or so.

As far as the ratio goes I think higher sales # of the original MKX release skewed the US:UK ratio a lot lower than it would've been and MK continued to sell very well for months after in the US whereas sales fell of really quickly in the UK. This tells me the original release was a flash in the pan effect in the UK as opposed to the more entrenched popularity for the franchise that we see in the US. So it makes sense that a rerelease would do little to nothing to move the needle in the UK and how that could not be the case in the states since it has much more more mainstream appeal there.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
RexNovis said:
Oh? I thought they were separated. Hmm well >400k seems much less likely than >360k so I'll update the prediction to specify

Edit: and done. Prediction has been updated.
Click to expand...

All editions of a game are combined in the all formats chart except for hardware bundles.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Guess I'll do some predictions.

The Division will sell a total of 2.3m. Xbox One will have 52% of its sales. This includes bundles.

Zelda and Pokken will be in the bottom 10. Zelda <235k

MKX XL will not chart, and will not break 100k.

Halo 5 passes 2 million.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Let's talk about what will happen in March :p

PS4: no brainier here, PS4 will be only a bit up most because Bloodborn last year... 340k
Xbone: sorry but even trade-in deals and Division bundle won't make Xbone be up... it will stay flat like it did last year... 230k
Wii U: not much to say here... down to 70k
3DS: a lot down yoy again... 170k

[3DS] 170k
[PS4] 340k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 230k

- Division will do less than 2.5m and PS4 will sold the most including bundles... my range is 2.0m to 2.3m.
- MLB The Show 16 will do over 200k but less than 250k
- The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess will do less than 250k
- Pokkén Tournament will do less than 200k
- Mortal Kombat XL is out of TOP10


Edit - Checking others predictions... lol am I going crazy with hw?
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Welfare said:
Look at last month more than last year. For example, Wii U only did 70k last month, so it doing 75k is very unlikely.
Click to expand...
Maybe but I think Wii U will hold what it did last month.

I will go with 70k but that is the minimum... I expect a bit more... less than 80k of course.
 
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