• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Batman [Mafia] |OT| The mafia game Gafia deserves , but not the one it needs

roytheone

Member
Day 3 votes


sorian (1)
pop-o-matic 1934 (1993)
gryvan 2205

launchpadmcq (0)
ty4on 1990 (2178)

ty4on (1)
launchpadmcq 1939 (2031)
coppanuva 2288

coppanuva (3)
xamtheking 2030
ty4on 2178
absolutbro 2287

el topo (1)
ty4on 1989 (1990)
pop-o-matic 1993

karkador (0)
launchpadmcq 2031 (2169)
weemadarthur 2042 (2218)
camjo-z 2050 (2213)

gryvan (4)
launchpadmcq 2197
fireblend 2207
camjo-z 2213
weemadarthur 2240

Why did the owl like coding? Because of the bugs!(1)
Sorian

8 votes are needed for majority!
bla_1460062800.png
 

Karu

Member
I'm not super eager to just follow the Launch-list, but that's were discussion and the information is right now,

Gryvan/Kark: I'm okay with this Vote if it comes to that. The possibility of a Scum Roleblocker is there, he acted more than strange more than once and he shouldn't be surprised (and he probably isn't, because he knows what he's doing) where that let's him if all he gets out of a gambit was a lame Trigger-Vote (Batcomputer-reference).

Coppanuva: He says he's busy and that's that (I'm saying any meta-game behavioural change-arguments don't hold up in court.)

Apart from that, though, his feud with Ty4on stinks a bit. I do think Scum did throw deliberatly a Vote in Launch's list, because you can't have 4 confirmed Town running around. I'm mean... that would be huuuge. Thing is: Both Coppa's and Ty4on's arguments are super flimsy and it could go both ways, I just don't believe either one of them wouldn't have anticipated this development - although Launch didn't outright claim his full power, they were enough hints to deduct what it was all about.

AbsolutBro: low-key performance with good reasoning in regards to list. A light "I believe gryv"-Vote on Coppa. Not convinced at all. An appropriate counter-balance to flux' usual behaviour, I guess.

A coppa/Ty4on is exactly the kind of thing, that sucks because it lets to a "going down a list"-scenario, which can go down badly. That's why I vote for gryvan right now (+ his general suspicious behaviour of course)

VOTE: gryvan

Will be here for the rest of the Day (mostly), though.
 
I've been giving the list some thought guys, and it's really a pretty big double-edged sword. On one hand, we know there's a non-town player in there, but it's at least one. It could be one, it could be several. We start grabbing lynches from there and where do we stop? Will we be satisfied with one non-town lynch? We won't know for sure.

As such, I think we follow the Kark/gryven lynch solely on the basis that Kark was very suspicious and his actions need an explanation.

This is why I wanted to use a small pool of players and hopefully have an all-toen group :(

Depending on this flip, it'll affect my decision to go after Sorian next phase.
 
I reread that first paragraph and it sounds like babbling. I think my point is clear, but I'm half asleep and could've explained it better.

Basically, the list can become a rabbit hole pretty quickly.
 

Sorian

Banned
I've been giving the list some thought guys, and it's really a pretty big double-edged sword. On one hand, we know there's a non-town player in there, but it's at least one. It could be one, it could be several. We start grabbing lynches from there and where do we stop? Will we be satisfied with one non-town lynch? We won't know for sure.

As such, I think we follow the Kark/gryven lynch solely on the basis that Kark was very suspicious and his actions need an explanation.

This is why I wanted to use a small pool of players and hopefully have an all-toen group :(

Depending on this flip, it'll affect my decision to go after Sorian next phase.

The list is a tool and should be treated as a bit of evidence but not something damning. We shouldn't be ticking off boxes on your list, we should be pursuing suspicious activity and if it lines up with your list then maybe that can be slight push forward but your list should not be the only reason people are voting for someone, that's a trap whether you are telling the truth or lying.
 

Camjo-Z

Member
I reread that first paragraph and it sounds like babbling. I think my point is clear, but I'm half asleep and could've explained it better.

Basically, the list can become a rabbit hole pretty quickly.

It's best if everyone just ignores the list for now. It's a convenient tool if true, but no one should be using it as the main reason why they're voting someone.
 

Sorian

Banned
About 4 hours until time. There are 3 people not voting. Topo but he's town imo so while I don't care so much for getting reads I do care because his thoughts hold some weight. Corn, who just subbed in so I don't know if forcing him to vote is wise but I would hope that he does something before day end, I'm not sure if Pop's vote still counts but it is on Topo which I still think is idiotic. And finally Trigger, which is probably the most worrying because he hasn't voted a single time today. Trigger's conversation with weemad yesterday still looked like town Trigger to me but I can't really just ignore the inactivity and distancing from the game that seems to be going on here. Something else for me to consider.
 

Sorian

Banned
Are you confident in this lynch of Kark, Sorian?

Completely (now gryvan though), there is just so much that Kark did under the guise of gambits that doesn't sit well and could have easily had the ulterior motive of assisting scum (fishing for a batman claim, causing a no lynch day 1, trying to lynch a used up governor, starting to try and lynch a cleared by cop player). You could make the argument on all of those that he was a town player running gambits and looking under every rock but he didn't seem to be looking under every rock, Camjo especially, he spent so much time on and always returned right back to it, as unlikely as it was, and that's the one that bothers me the most. Out of all of the inactivity, general scumminess, he kept going back to a confirmed overrider as his big lynch on day 2 instead of looking at much else. Felt like scum trying to get it out of the way without having to waste a NK where they were downing PRs.

The only thing I find interesting at all was his insistence that I go back and look at Absolut (then Flux) at the beginning of this day phase. It set up a weird either/or dichotomy in my mind and I do think that if Kark is scum then Absolut is town. I'm still debating on if I believe the opposite is true (if Kark is town then Absolut is scum), I haven't put a lot of thought to that yet because, getting back to your question again, yes, I fully expect him to flip scum.
 

Ty4on

Member
What do you think were Kark's motivations for his D1 votes as scum? He would always be unlikely to achieve a no lynch and ultimately didn't succeed.
 

Trigger

Member
I really feel like this Kark train is a mistake. I honestly think that we're better off pursuing other players. I don't want to fully role claim until tomorrow, but I have some reasons for believing Kark's claim.

VOTE: Ty4on
 

Sorian

Banned
What do you think were Kark's motivations for his D1 votes as scum? He would always be unlikely to achieve a no lynch and ultimately didn't succeed.

Well, we seem to know now that Topo is town if we are reading TL21 right and we basically know zilch about Flux/Absolut in terms of alignment. Assuming what I'm saying above, let's start it with both a town Topo and town Absolut and a scum Kark.

Kark is causing general chaos in the last few minutes, a move that he painted as pro town because he wanted fence-sitters to choose a side but it also sets up a potential chain lynch down the line. Of course it is unlikely he causes a no lynch (though if he does, then this plan works better), but if he succeeds in screwing up the vote and making it swap from one player to another (we'll say from Flux to Topo for purposes of example) then we now have a direct event where we can say Kark saved Flux's life. What happens if Kark gets flipped later in the game and we find him to be scum? Well that's odd, he did something in the last minutes of day 1 to save Flux. Flux must be a teammate. It's a complicated plan, it's high-risk, high reward (every mislynch is good for scum and setting up a potential one for late game is big), that does sound like Kark to me, the same one who fake claimed cop.

The other scenario where Kark is scum is obviously a lot cleaner and just generally easier. Flux is scum, Topo is town, Kark is scum. Screwing the vote was just an attempt to save a scum teammate because losing one day one is horrible and sets you up for failure the whole game. This one doesn't make sense though because when Kark started screwing up the vote, Topo was actually in the lead and it's unlikely Topo is scum.

This plays a bit into my thought of Absolut and Kark being opposite alignment. Because from those two scenarios above, it at least doesn't make much sense for them both to be scum. Nothing is really stopping them from both being town though.
 

Sorian

Banned
Actually

VOTE: Coppanuva

If trigger has something on Kark, I'd like to hear it before lynching gryven

This one I can get more behind. I'm not seeing it from Ty4on. He is pushing so hard against lynching Kark, I doubt scum would be bothering to save a partner in gryvan's position at this point, they'd already be sheeping the vote or staying quiet.
 

Ty4on

Member
Well, we seem to know now that Topo is town if we are reading TL21 right and we basically know zilch about Flux/Absolut in terms of alignment. Assuming what I'm saying above, let's start it with both a town Topo and town Absolut and a scum Kark.

Kark is causing general chaos in the last few minutes, a move that he painted as pro town because he wanted fence-sitters to choose a side but it also sets up a potential chain lynch down the line. Of course it is unlikely he causes a no lynch (though if he does, then this plan works better), but if he succeeds in screwing up the vote and making it swap from one player to another (we'll say from Flux to Topo for purposes of example) then we now have a direct event where we can say Kark saved Flux's life. What happens if Kark gets flipped later in the game and we find him to be scum? Well that's odd, he did something in the last minutes of day 1 to save Flux. Flux must be a teammate. It's a complicated plan, it's high-risk, high reward (every mislynch is good for scum and setting up a potential one for late game is big), that does sound like Kark to me, the same one who fake claimed cop.

The other scenario where Kark is scum is obviously a lot cleaner and just generally easier. Flux is scum, Topo is town, Kark is scum. Screwing the vote was just an attempt to save a scum teammate because losing one day one is horrible and sets you up for failure the whole game. This one doesn't make sense though because when Kark started screwing up the vote, Topo was actually in the lead and it's unlikely Topo is scum.

This plays a bit into my thought of Absolut and Kark being opposite alignment. Because from those two scenarios above, it at least doesn't make much sense for them both to be scum. Nothing is really stopping them from both being town though.

Regarding the bolded, you later in this very post point out that IF gryvan flips scum it is unlikely that either AB or Topo are scum. To me it almost clears them because otherwise he is putting two scum on the line.
I think it's more likely if he is scum his motivations were to get townies to change votes so they'd look suspicious later in the game. Think Heist D1.

It doesn't clear him in any way, but his D1 voting don't sway me in any way. It would maybe even have been helpful if we'd gotten a flip.
 

Fireblend

Banned
I'm gonna stay with my karkyvan vote because I'm trying to maximize the amount of info are getting from this lynch and I don't want to cause any last minute swing in the vote.
 
I'll stick with Coppa for now. Like I said I'm not really sold on the vote but I don't have the time to build the case I think should be built.
 

Ty4on

Member
I'm gonna stay with my karkyvan vote because I'm trying to maximize the amount of info are getting from this lynch and I don't want to cause any last minute swing in the vote.

It looks like we have just two mislynches left.

If Kark/gryvan flip town with the role they claimed, what do we learn? I don't see any obvious targets apart from Coppa/AB.
 

Sorian

Banned
Regarding the bolded, you later in this very post point out that IF gryvan flips scum it is unlikely that either AB or Topo are scum. To me it almost clears them because otherwise he is putting two scum on the line.
I think it's more likely if he is scum his motivations were to get townies to change votes so they'd look suspicious later in the game. Think Heist D1.

It doesn't clear him in any way, but his D1 voting don't sway me in any way. It would maybe even have been helpful if we'd gotten a flip.

Not really, you don't just quietly watch scum get lynched D1, that's just setting you up for failure. Losing a scum day 2 is still bad, day 3 is fine, day 4 is whatever but day 1? No, that's almost catastrophic. Most people will tell you that saving a scum partner in the day 1 vote is necessary. Sometimes it backfires horrendously (gafia 1 where all of the scum was together on the vote list not voting for their teammate) and sometimes it leads to paving the road for turning a bad day 1 into a game win (FF mafia). So no, it's doesn't really clear them both, we just know that Topo is town and obviously Kark's actions were not saving Flux, they were bussing Flux in favor of saving Topo.

I agree on the last point though, the position we'd be in would be so much better if Flux/Absolut wasn't such a huge question mark.
 

roytheone

Member
Day 3 votes

sorian (1)
pop-o-matic 1934 (1993)
gryvan 2205

launchpadmcq (0)
ty4on 1990 (2178)

ty4on (2)
launchpadmcq 1939 (2031)
coppanuva 2288
trigger 2311
launchpadmcq 2313 (2314)

coppanuva (4)
xamtheking 2030
ty4on 2178
absolutbro 2287
launchpadmcq 2314

el topo (1)
ty4on 1989 (1990)
pop-o-matic 1993

karkador (0)
launchpadmcq 2031 (2169)
weemadarthur 2042 (2218)
camjo-z 2050 (2213)

gryvan (4)
fireblend 2207
camjo-z 2213
weemadarthur 2240
karu 2302

Why did the owl like coding? Because of the bugs!(1)
Sorian

8 votes are needed for majority!
bla_1460062800.png
 

Sorian

Banned
I'll stick with Coppa for now. Like I said I'm not really sold on the vote but I don't have the time to build the case I think should be built.

Even if you can't build a case, who do you think a case should be built on? We have 2 hours left in the day and vague hinting doesn't help anyone. Hearing other sides, even partial sides, is still worth a lot.

It looks like we have just two mislynches left.

If Kark/gryvan flip town with the role they claimed, what do we learn? I don't see any obvious targets apart from Coppa/AB.

Two mislynches in the worst case scenario of 5 scum. 3 mislynches if there is only 4 scum which balance would dictate (though this lack of neutral so far throws the regular rules of balance out of whack). That is also considering the presence of an extra night kill at some point.
 
So no, it's doesn't really clear them both, we just know that Topo is town and obviously Kark's actions were not saving Flux, they were bussing Flux in favor of saving Topo.

I agree on the last point though, the position we'd be in would be so much better if Flux/Absolut wasn't such a huge question mark.
@bolded: it's not "obviously" , because Flux was / I am town.
 

Sorian

Banned
@bolded: it's not "obviously" , because Flux was / I am town.

I guess bussing does imply scum voting scum. Not really what I meant. His actions were obviously sentencing Flux to death over Topo.

I'm just saying when he tied the vote, Flux was safe, Topo was the one in danger.
 

Sorian

Banned
I was looking at Roy's last vote count so when Launch switched I thought Coppa was ahead but I see I was missing Karu's vote so it is tied. Obviously tying is not an option and I can't do anything to break that. I will say I am happy to see either of these go, it's not the junk lynch that we did on Mazre last phase. I think these both have high chance of being scum.
 

Fireblend

Banned
It looks like we have just two mislynches left.

If Kark/gryvan flip town with the role they claimed, what do we learn? I don't see any obvious targets apart from Coppa/AB.

I'd agree if that was the only reason I'm voting, but it's not a completely blind high-risk high-reward vote. Kark was very consistent about his hostility and maintaining most of his plays obscure. You can only excuse seemingly anti-town behavior so much with the hopes that it's a towny with mad skillz. Just by virtue of being part of Launch's list, there's 25% chance he's not town, and I don't want to lynch those that are null reads to me or I suspect less than Kark, so yeah.

If the vote swings some other way then I won't be too bothered, but Kark/Gryvan is where I think the most forward-thinking lynch for us today is.
 

Ty4on

Member
Not really, you don't just quietly watch scum get lynched D1, that's just setting you up for failure. Losing a scum day 2 is still bad, day 3 is fine, day 4 is whatever but day 1? No, that's almost catastrophic. Most people will tell you that saving a scum partner in the day 1 vote is necessary. Sometimes it backfires horrendously (gafia 1 where all of the scum was together on the vote list not voting for their teammate) and sometimes it leads to paving the road for turning a bad day 1 into a game win (FF mafia). So no, it's doesn't really clear them both, we just know that Topo is town and obviously Kark's actions were not saving Flux, they were bussing Flux in favor of saving Topo.

I agree on the last point though, the position we'd be in would be so much better if Flux/Absolut wasn't such a huge question mark.

I've never been scum, but honestly I'd either start much earlier to save Flux. By that point I would be bussing him and or splitting my vote.

I think if Kark were saving someone, they were number 3 or 4. His tie essentially forced it into a two horse race. Xam and Camjo both had 2 votes before he started tieing while Topo and Flux had 5 and 4.

My main issue with your original hypothesis is that everything is very speculative. Maybe cause confusion so when he maybe is lynched we maybe think the one he maybe saved is maybe scum.
I'll admit it's kind of Karkadorian :p
I can totally see town Kark do that though.
Two mislynches in the worst case scenario of 5 scum. 3 mislynches if there is only 4 scum which balance would dictate (though this lack of neutral so far throws the regular rules of balance out of whack). That is also considering the presence of an extra night kill at some point.

We're now 14 so [4 v 10]
mislynch so 12 [4 v 8]
mislynch so 10 [4 v 6]
and after two we're in lylo

Technically we have three, but if we use the third we're dead unless an NK is stopped. To me that's really dire and way past the point of lynching for info.
 

Sorian

Banned
I've never been scum, but honestly I'd either start much earlier to save Flux. By that point I would be bussing him and or splitting my vote.

I think if Kark were saving someone, they were number 3 or 4. His tie essentially forced it into a two horse race. Xam and Camjo both had 2 votes before he started tieing while Topo and Flux had 5 and 4.

My main issue with your original hypothesis is that everything is very speculative. Maybe cause confusion so when he maybe is lynched we maybe think the one he maybe saved is maybe scum.
I'll admit it's kind of Karkadorian :p
I can totally see town Kark do that though.

It's completely speculative but you are asking about one of the weird things he did in this game. By itself, I wouldn't assume he is scum, with everything else though, it makes sense to me.
 

Ty4on

Member
To me this is the most suspect thing Kark has done. It's really hard to pinpoint his views on yesterday's vote. These are all in order BTW, but only a small sample because he made so many posts.
I'm not moving my vote

Would you mind if I swapped with absolutbro?

In any case, Camjo is someone I would vote on today regardless, so this is destiny

I'd rather you [Ty4on] join than replace me

I'd agree if that was the only reason I'm voting, but it's not a completely blind high-risk high-reward vote. Kark was very consistent about his hostility and maintaining most of his plays obscure. You can only excuse seemingly anti-town behavior so much with the hopes that it's a towny with mad skillz. Just by virtue of being part of Launch's list, there's 25% chance he's not town, and I don't want to lynch those that are null reads to me or I suspect less than Kark, so yeah.

If the vote swings some other way then I won't be too bothered, but Kark/Gryvan is where I think the most forward-thinking lynch for us today is.
4/14 is 28% though so hitting a random person is a higher chance of hitting scum unless Launch had two in his list.
 
I really feel like this Kark train is a mistake. I honestly think that we're better off pursuing other players. I don't want to fully role claim until tomorrow, but I have some reasons for believing Kark's claim.

VOTE: Ty4on

Can you offer any information at all?
I'm thinking this lynch is too slow overall.
I want to lynch scum,
Not get a town one.
You haven't seemed so trustworthy, recall.
 

El Topo

Member
So...there is only one thing about Coppa (that I recall right now) that I find weird, but I'm not sure if that makes him scum.
 

Camjo-Z

Member
I really feel like this Kark train is a mistake. I honestly think that we're better off pursuing other players. I don't want to fully role claim until tomorrow, but I have some reasons for believing Kark's claim.

VOTE: Ty4on

This is bullshit. You have no reason not to claim. Xam is an as-of-yet uncontested doc, so clearly he can protect you if you're that valuable. It's not like there are any other roles out right now that absolutely must stay alive. You seem to think Kark isn't maf, so you have no worries about being roleblocked. Yet you still want to play games, and you don't even give a reason why we should be voting Ty4on.

You know what though? I'm not even going to press the issue, because you're going to come back with 5 minutes left and say something wacky and everyone will lose their minds and vote somebody else. So you keep this stuff to yourself, and I'll keep my vote on Kark.
 

Ty4on

Member
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Sorry for the weird Fireblend quote looking like it was from Kark. I should have added a breaking line :/
It's completely speculative but you are asking about one of the weird things he did in this game. By itself, I wouldn't assume he is scum, with everything else though, it makes sense to me.
What is your main suspicion? Ideally a post or something if you have that in the back of your head.

And building on that, this read on Kark to me makes it look like you don't think Coppa is scum anymore. Is it because he voted unprompted?


------------------------------

One thing bothering my reads this game is that I have mostly scum read the quietest players, but there almost has to be one or more loud scum players. Topo, Xam and Camjo all have some alibi (though not watertight) and Launch's actions on D2 make little sense for scum to pull off, especially without a chat. Kark and Sorian went really hard against each other and in my experience scum would either back off or never get into a fight that big in the first place, but both would probably play more aggressively than most scum players. Flux, now AB, was really apathetic and didn't even claim when he was one vote away from being turbo'd.
 

gryvan

Member
I'm at work and I am not gonna try to use votes to get myself out of getting lynched. I am gonna stick with Sorian from what kark has been writing from previous statements.
 

Ty4on

Member
I'm at work and I am not gonna try to use votes to get myself out of getting lynched. I am gonna stick with Sorian from what kark has been writing from previous statements.
I don't think Sorian is going to be lynched unless something big happens.

What are your thoughts on the other players?
 

Sorian

Banned
So...there is only one thing about Coppa (that I recall right now) that I find weird, but I'm not sure if that makes him scum.

And that one thing is? AB, Trigger, and now you. If you all want to say something then just say it.

What is your main suspicion? Ideally a post or something if you have that in the back of your head.

And building on that, this read on Kark to me makes it look like you don't think Coppa is scum anymore. Is it because he voted unprompted?

I mean, I don't think I have anything big to give you anymore. This post talks a lot about the ideas I see behind people entering and exiting Launch's vote for Camjo. I detail my issues with Kark throughout. There is no main suspicion and that's where this vote is coming from. There is just so many little things that by themselves mean nothing but together paint an overall picture of someone who is probably scum. You even pointed at another thing, that feeling that Kark's vote on day 2 wasn't genuine and you couldn't even read what he really wanted. You can extend that to day 1 as well, I have no clue what Kark wanted on day 1. He says Sky Odin but dropped it fairly easily.

And no, I don't give a pass to Coppa, he is still scummy, it's just most of my argument against him is that he is inactive and strangely quiet for what Coppa tends to be and has hardly pressed anything. I still think he is scum but the case on Kark is just stronger in general.
 

Fireblend

Banned
I'm at work and I am not gonna try to use votes to get myself out of getting lynched. I am gonna stick with Sorian from what kark has been writing from previous statements.

This also bothers me. It seems like Gryvan is more concerned about playing like Kark would have rather than actually playing as himself. This would make it easier to excuse a mislynch or continue spreading misinformation by hiding behind "Kark's intentions".
 

Sorian

Banned
Coppa and (I think) you were the only people to point out an inconsistency in my role reveal.

Is there a reason you are being coy with what it is? I recall questioning a few things about your claim and I don't really feel like going back and trying to figure out what Coppa and I said in common.
 

gryvan

Member
This also bothers me. It seems like Gryvan is more concerned about playing like Kark would have rather than actually playing as himself. This would make it easier to excuse a mislynch or continue spreading misinformation by hiding behind "Kark's intentions".

I think karks intentions are clear imo.

I'm still not an expert in mafia games and I am not really hiding behind kark. I'm just basically agreeing with him

Also current other people I think may be closer to scum is:

Sorian
Coppanuva
Launchpadmcq (but he's coming off more town though)

And now Fireblend due to the fact that apparently he's seeing me as following karks shadow when I'm just basically agreeing with kark's post...

Also I can't type anything now till end because I am at work again so this is my final post before next day phase
 
This is bullshit. You have no reason not to claim. Xam is an as-of-yet uncontested doc, so clearly he can protect you if you're that valuable.

Xam has looked scummy the whole game and yet
You'd rely on his claim? A bad bet.
I can't push for
A lynch on "doctor"
But I wouldn't claim a role at sunset.
 

Sorian

Banned
I don't think it's fair to lynch someone for the posts of the previous player.

That's noble and all but for all intents and purposes, we are losing right now and while I gave Absolut some benefit of the doubt, we were still early on there, we seem to be at about the midway point if current projections are good and while we have a lot of suspicions and theories, there is nothing to show for it.

Also, Absolut denied everything Flux did and said he saw no reason why he was acting like he was, gryvan has said that he 100% agrees with Kark's analysis. I think it's fair to attribute Kark to gryvan more than we've attributed Fux to Absolut.
 

Camjo-Z

Member
Xam has looked scummy the whole game and yet
You'd rely on his claim? A bad bet.
I can't push for
A lynch on "doctor"
But I wouldn't claim a role at sunset.

If Xam's not a doctor and Trigger dies after his claim then we get another maf, seems solid to me. Besides, he's softclaiming a role that will give us info tomorrow, so he's already put himself in the spotlight.

unrelated, but am I the only one deeply shaken to my core by the fact that Pop's replacement is Corn
 
Top Bottom