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Danny Phantom Mafia |OT| Your lynch doesn't stand a ghost of a chance!

Karkador

Banned
Ah, right, I forgot that was there, since the post really said nothing at all.

So you really think I "fucked up" and nobody else did?
 
Ah, right, I forgot that was there, since the post really said nothing at all.

So you really think I "fucked up" and nobody else did?

not at all
though you (referring to both you and darryl here) have fucked up more than anyone else here.
unless someone else has also contributed to every townie lynch in this game.

you also seem to be the only one trying to divert attention away for said fuck up.
 
I also want to look closer at melonrabbit, she stuck to her guns a little too closely yesterday, keeping her Panda vote despite the very good reasons to not lynch him.

I was not comfortable with the blarg lynch and the majority had already voted so there was little point in switching my vote.
 

*Splinter

Member
In fact a quick search through your posts suggests you haven't mentioned Stan all game...

43635-charlton-heston-laughing-gif-iogx.gif


VOTE: StanleyPalmtree

VOTE: melonrabbit

3 down, 1 to go

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toi8sD0NtDs
 
I'll respond in detail after work. But going what we now (mostly) can considered be true from panda and rats, and using Kark's list and hypothesis it makes sense for Stan to be scum.
 

Karkador

Banned
not at all
though you (referring to both you and darryl here) have fucked up more than anyone else here.
unless someone else has also contributed to every townie lynch in this game.

They have, with votes.

you also seem to be the only one trying to divert attention away for said fuck up.

How so? I opened the day by talking about and analyzing the Blarg lynch, and I haven't even taken the liberty of crossing myself off as "confirmed town", because I know it doesn't look that way to others.
 
[m] Matt Attack
[f] StarSketch
[m] StanleyPalmtree
[f] melonrabbit
[m] *Splinter
[m] ultron87
[m] gryvan
[m] Karkador
--------------------------
[m] Rats Off to Ya
[m] Ty4on
[m] Trigger
[m] Royal_Flush

We're looking at probably 4 Scum in the upper part of that list. That means if we miss we're probably in Mylo tomorrow.

____________________________________________

Let me look at the votes again (Italic means confirmed Town or Neutral, Bold means confirmed Scum. I list everyone who was at some point in some danger of being lynched. I updated the names of replacements in hopefully all cases.):

DAY 1

*splinter (3)
*splinter 143 (217)
skyodin 270 (279)
theworthyedge 329
giant panda 330
cornburrito 340 (442)
oceanicair 488


theworthyedge (1)
Karkador 146 (305)
trigger 157 (304)
starsketch 201 (253)
flame_ac 206 (436)
*splinter 217 (321)
blargonaut 285 (306)
ultron87 406

skyodin (6)
crimsonfist 418
el topo 466

starsketch 516
karkador 517
blargonaut 521 (523)
skyodin 522
flame_ac 524


starsketch (3)
enker 420
trigger 472
ty4on 496
flame_ac 510 (524)
skyodin 518 (522)



DAY 2

starsketch (4)
cornburrito 539
rats off to ya 766
ty4on 778 (779)
trigger 786
ty4on 834


flame_ac (8)
blargonaut 551 (596)
matt attack 606
royal_flush 607
karkador 741
sophia 745
blargonaut 762

melonrabbit 767
*splinter 773
ultron87 809

*splinter (3)
giant panda 573
*splinter 574
flame_ac 666 (742)
theworthyedge 672


Day 3

trigger (2)
karkador 841 (1104)
oceanicair 842 (1144)
rats off to ya 1046 (1109)
gryvan 1092
oceanicair 1146

starsketch (1)
cornburrito 869 (991)
blargonaut 1006 (1045)
cornburrito 1015 (1029)
blargonaut 1045

rats off to ya 1113 (1127)

blargonaut (3)
ultron87 888
rats off to ya 907 (984)
matt attack 948
starsketch 1010 (1158)
theworthyedge 1033 (1050)
theworthyedge 1133 (1136)
theworthyedge 1143


oceanicair (7)
giant panda 904 (1039)
karkador 1104
rats off to ya 1109 (1113)
royal_flush 1125
ty4on 1126

rats off to ya 1127
melonrabbit 1132
oceanicair 1144 (1146)
starsketch 1158
giant panda 1167

theworthyedge (1)
cornburrito 991 (1015)
giant panda 1039 (1167)
cornburrito 1068



Day 4

karkador (2)
blargonaut 1308
starsketch 1239 (1248)
stanleypalmtree 1419
gryvan 1439 (1456)
*splinter 1453 (1465)

blargonaut (7)
ultron87 1475
starsketch 1485
*splinter 1488
royal_flush 1489
gryvan 1492
trigger 1493
karkador 1494


Notes

- Except Rats only confirmed Townies ever voted for StarSketch
- In the duel StarSketch vs. SkyOdin at the end of D1, if we exclude StarSketch herself, Karkador is the only unconfirmed person in the fight at all. This would suggest that neither of the parties is Scum or that Scum is playing a very hard distancing game.
- On D2 there is a lot more involvement of unconfirmed people (5) to save StarSketch. Looking at the player list at the top of my post at least one of those people has to be Scum (assuming that Rats is Town). This somehow is the complete opposite of the D1 result suggesting Scum was fighting to save StarSketch.
- D3 is rather worthless since neither Blarg nor Trigger are Scum. StarSketch got out of range way before the end of the day. Scum had no stakes in this fight. Note how only non-Scum voted on TWE.
- D4 has the non-italic names spread out between the two candidates. Whatever this means.
- StanleyPalmtree only shows up once in this whole chart meaning he was absent from almost all relevant votes. (Note that our deadline is around 3am his time which sadly excuses him from taking stances in last minute swings)

______________________________________

vote: StarSketch

I'm also ready to vote on any of the following people:
[m] Matt Attack
[f] StarSketch
[m] StanleyPalmtree
[f] melonrabbit
 

*Splinter

Member
Flush how did you come to that list? I don't understand why Rats is in the lower section, I dont remember him being confirmed?

Could you elaborate more on your melonrabbit read? I don't think you've explained why she is scum apart from voting Panda yesterday.
I came to that list by process of elimination. Melon has played a cautious game (which is only weakly alignment-indicative) so I don't have much I can point to in the way of evidence.
 

*Splinter

Member
Flush can you remind me of your position on Kark? Apologies if you posted it recently.

Also you really think we had 5 scum at the start of the game?

I'm slightly troubled by the lack of scum votes on StarSketch. The obvious explanation is that she's scum, but I'm still thinking about that.
 
Flush can you remind me of your position on Kark? Apologies if you posted it recently.

Also you really think we had 5 scum at the start of the game?

I'm slightly troubled by the lack of scum votes on StarSketch. The obvious explanation is that she's scum, but I'm still thinking about that.

My playstyle tends to cause me to effectively lunch myself so I think maybe scum wanted to leave me to my own devices.

Of course this would mean at least one scum player has played with me enough times to know this....
 

*Splinter

Member
My playstyle tends to cause me to effectively lunch myself so I think maybe scum wanted to leave me to my own devices.

Of course this would mean at least one scum player has played with me enough times to know this....
Well that's roughly what I was thinking, and why it's so hard to believe that not a single scum would vote for you all game.

On the other hand, maybe they avoided you on purpose because they don't want to be seen as going for an easy target?

Maybe I'm thinking about this too much and should just lynch you.
 
Flush how did you come to that list? I don't understand why Rats is in the lower section, I dont remember him being confirmed?


I came to that list by process of elimination. Melon has played a cautious game (which is only weakly alignment-indicative) so I don't have much I can point to in the way of evidence.

Flush can you remind me of your position on Kark? Apologies if you posted it recently.

Also you really think we had 5 scum at the start of the game?

I'm slightly troubled by the lack of scum votes on StarSketch. The obvious explanation is that she's scum, but I'm still thinking about that.

Rats was under no real pressure when he claimed. His choices make sense and at least the one (for me) verifyable action (he switched me with Kark when GP inverstigated Kark) checks out. I'm very inclined to believe he indeed is a switcher, but I guess there is a chance he might be a Scum switcher. He isn't italic in the vote lists because he technically isn't confirmed. He's below the line in the player list because unless something indicates anything else I'd like to check all the other people first.

Kark had slipups several times, made out Cop claim and (I think) had some votes on him when he claimed. On the other hand nobody has said or even hinted that Kark is telling bullshit about DP. Also, who would come up with something on their own? (Well Kark or Blarg if anyone, so there's that, lol). I'm conflicted about him.

Usually we're aiming at something like 20% Scum in a game. With 22 players that would be 4.4 Scum. You could solve this by making it 4+1 (Minion, Recruitable, etc) or by balancing it via PRs. Since we don't have any indication of a +1 yet and we have confirmation of a regular Cop (very powerful PR) and a potentially rather strong (but swingy) Danny Phantom I'm going for 5 Scum, yes. It might be 4.
 

Ty4on

Member
[...]
(1) - In the duel StarSketch vs. SkyOdin at the end of D1, if we exclude StarSketch herself, Karkador is the only unconfirmed person in the fight at all. This would suggest that neither of the parties is Scum or that Scum is playing a very hard distancing game.
(2) - On D2 there is a lot more involvement of unconfirmed people (5) to save StarSketch. Looking at the player list at the top of my post at least one of those people has to be Scum (assuming that Rats is Town). This somehow is the complete opposite of the D1 result suggesting Scum was fighting to save StarSketch.
[...]
1)
Reading back at D1 I see that the votes for Sky at the end came quickly (Star put her vote down 9 minutes before the deadline, Darryl 8 minutes) . That could explain why there wasn't a save. They either weren't prepared or scared at the attention should Star have been lynched in the end. Sky had just 2 votes before Star's vote while Flame, Xam and Star all had 3.

What do you make of her D1 vote on Worthy? She was the third I think to put a vote down on him, but the first to unvote after he returned.

2)
From what I remember it never felt like Star was under a lot of pressure on D2. Reading back it was far from nothing, but Corn's argument against her didn't gain a lot of momentum and by the time Corn got someone else to vote for her Flame already had 6.
 

Ty4on

Member
i wont be moving my vote just yet, but if it does come down to a choice between Gryvan and Splinter, consider my vote on Splinter.
im not completely sold on Splinter being scum and would rather the vote went other ways, but i pretty strongly think that gryan is town (i looked through most of his posts during the night, got a much better impression of him than earlier).
What is your read of Star right now?
 

Ty4on

Member
I agree with Flush that Rats is very likely town. I don't really see scum having a switcher (high profile targets are almost impossible protect with a scum switcher, see MGS) and if he's not a switcher then he's playing a risky game.

I'm not really seeing Kark as scum either. Danny is the only role we know is in this game. If Kark's lying then Danny Phantom either really trusts Kark or feels like it's more important he stays hidden. The only possibility I see is Danny is waiting for lylo and knows should they die before Kark they know their flip is going to show Kark was lying.
 
(*on mobile. Apologize for any mistakes or auto-corrects)

I came to that list by process of elimination. Melon has played a cautious game (which is only weakly alignment-indicative) so I don't have much I can point to in the way of evidence.

Having no evidence or answer to Ty4on's question -- it does seems strange that I've made second on your list and already a vote to lynch prior to waiting for any response from me.



Agreed Royal. Very similar to the post I had in mind in creating--this whole thing is now a numbers game. Taking onto consideration what data we got from Panda and Rats we have a solid foundation of whom is town or town-aligned. For a total of 13.

Leaving 2 deceased scum (TWE and CB) and 7 unconfirmed possibilities for scum and the remaining town players.

Stanley
gryvan
*Splinter
Star
Matt Attack
ultron87
& myself

Stanley, myself and Matt Attack were the only ones not involved in the blarg lynching.

**One of the above is DP.

I've already explained several time why I voted for Panda yesterday and I think it is pointless to keep retreading that ground over and over.

My actions throughout the game have been the result of me performing to the best of my abilities while learning the game on the fly. If you have specific point of contention, *Splinter, I'd be more than happy to clarify further.
 
They have, with votes.

no they haven't, you are the only one who has voted for every single townie lynch.

How so? I opened the day by talking about and analyzing the Blarg lynch, and I haven't even taken the liberty of crossing myself off as "confirmed town", because I know it doesn't look that way to others.

i guess ill repeat this, since you apparently forget any post of mine within half a day.
(also is the "taken the liberty of crossing myself off as "confirmed town"" supposed to be some incredible magnanimous effort or something? because it really doent mean anything.)

Keep in mind that we almost reached majority on Blarg, but nobody hammered, which kind of suggests that someone who didn't vote on Blarg didn't want to be in the spotlight.

'hey i know we just lynched a townie, but lets look at everyone else instead'
your analyzing spends more time urging people to look at the people that didnt lynch blarg rather than the people who did.

What is your read of Star right now?

leaning scum, would probably be down for a star lynch.
was a more neutral read before, but then this happened:

Sounds good.

vote: Gryvan

which screams to me: "please dont pay atention to me! *bandwagon*"
 
unvote

Why the hell not, I'm tired and we're just gonna misfire again so may as well get my useless ass out of the way

I certainly can't think of anything concrete.
 

Karkador

Banned
no they haven't, you are the only one who has voted for every single townie lynch.

??

This doesn't mean much.

The only reason that's technically true is because most of the people on the D1 SkyOdin vote are dead now. There are several repeat mislynch voters across D2-D4 (melonrabbit, royal flush, starsketch, xam/kitty/splinter, ultron) who you aren't mentioning for some strange reason.

'hey i know we just lynched a townie, but lets look at everyone else instead'
your analyzing spends more time urging people to look at the people that didnt lynch blarg rather than the people who did.

Yep, look at me:

Also, I find it hard to believe that not a single mafia member is active at the end of the day, so it's likely there's mafia voting Blarg

It seems unlikely that all mafia went one way or another, so my guess is that each group has at least 1 mafia, if not 2.

Totally not urging people to look at the people who lynched Blarg.
 

*Splinter

Member
(*on mobile. Apologize for any mistakes or auto-corrects)



Having no evidence or answer to Ty4on's question -- it does seems strange that I've made second on your list and already a vote to lynch prior to waiting for any response from me.

My actions throughout the game have been the result of me performing to the best of my abilities while learning the game on the fly. If you have specific point of contention, *Splinter, I'd be more than happy to clarify further.
I'm sorry that I can't give you anything more concrete to answer to, but by ruling out those I think I town - along with your post against Stanley which reads like a late bus attempt - I think you must be scum.
no they haven't, you are the only one who has voted for every single townie lynch.
So he's not been actively avoiding lynches? Everyone - wherever they voted - is responsible for every townie lynch, and this game hasn't lynched any scum yet.

(also is the "taken the liberty of crossing myself off as "confirmed town"" supposed to be some incredible magnanimous effort or something? because it really doent mean anything.)
This is throwing shit for the sake of throwing shit.

[re: StarSketch] which screams to me: "please dont pay atention to me! *bandwagon*"
Because an obvious bandwagon vote with no explanation is a great way to avoid attention...
 
??

This doesn't mean much.

The only reason that's technically true is because most of the people on the D1 SkyOdin vote are dead now. There are several repeat mislynch voters across D2-D4 (melonrabbit, royal flush, starsketch, xam/kitty/splinter, ultron) who you aren't mentioning for some strange reason.

.

you have lynched more townies than anyone else, and yet you tried to deny that.
sure, you are not the only one here who has made mistakes, congratulations.
as should be obvious, im not bringing up anyone else because you are the person im accusing right now.

Yep, look at me:

Totally not urging people to look at the people who lynched Blarg.

well your just trying to make me repeat myself now arnt you?
you pushed harder for people to look at everyone else, hell you even bolded it.
see how when you bold something it gives puts a much greater emphasis on it? makes it stick with people more, right?
 
I was clear in my outline (this morning) what my post wold be/is about.

But, what more would you like me to say about you, Stan?

oh no, if thats all then thats totally fine.

i wasn't being sarcastic or anything, how you alluded to it earlier had me thinking you had some whole case against me or something, got me really curious to what it could be.
i thought it was some masterful suspense building, turns out im just overthinking it.

though i wouldnt object to anyone wanting to whisper some sweet nothings to me. *wink*
 
I'm sorry that I can't give you anything more concrete to answer to, but by ruling out those I think I town - along with your post against Stanley which reads like a late bus attempt - I think you must be scum...

That's your prerogative, I guess. Not backing it up with anything concrete.

The town has made many mistakes and had little to work on until this latest night. Of course with all the replacements you can't say this game has exactly run smoothly. So, yes, it is a late attempt to identify scum because we've had so little success early on.
 

*Splinter

Member
Ladies and Gentlemen of the Jury...

That's your prerogative, I guess. Not backing it up with anything concrete.

The town has made many mistakes and had little to work on until this latest night. Of course with all the replacements you can't say this game has exactly run smoothly. So, yes, it is a late attempt to identify scum because we've had so little success early on.
You will notice here that the defendant, "melonrabbit", has no interest as to the "process of elimination" alluded to in my earlier post. Instead, she has elected to highlight the lack of "anything concrete" present within my argument - a fact I make no attempt to disguise - and then, believing my arguments to be suitably discredited, has retired so as to once again limit her exposure to the thread.

Now, ladies and gentlemen of the Jury, I put it to you that this behaviour does not befit a townsperson. The benefits to pursuing such a line of enquiry are obvious and myriad:
  • It forces me to justify my vote - is my vote well intentioned? But a scum player already knows my alignment, and thus already knows my vote to be well intentioned, and so melonrabbit did not ask.
  • Provides insight from another player's point of view - perhaps this could highlight something the defendant had not considered? But a scum player has nothing to consider, and certainly doesn't care for the input of a townie whom they know has no further info, and so melonrabbit did not ask.
  • Identifies possible flaws in my reasoning - why do I believe the defendant to be scum when she is not? But she is scum, and thus there is no flaw to be uncovered within my reasoning, and so melonrabbit did. not. ask.

Ladies and gentlemen of the Jury, it is clear to me - and I hope to all of you - that the defendant's priorities do not lie in solving any mystery... and that her only goals are to play by the book, stay out of trouble, and discredit any attacks against her person by appealing to the inevitable lack of evidence against her.

The defendant, "melonrabbit", is scum.

VOTE: melonrabbit
 

*Splinter

Member
That's your prerogative, I guess. Not backing it up with anything concrete.

The town has made many mistakes and had little to work on until this latest night. Of course with all the replacements you can't say this game has exactly run smoothly. So, yes, it is a late attempt to identify scum because we've had so little success early on.
Not interested in understanding my reasons - only in discrediting them.
 
You had ample time to post your reasons when first Ty4on asked you.

And you said you had nothing. Now you are bending this around on me by saying it is my fault you and that I should have further prodded you on a question you already chosen to fully answer? It doesn't make sense. If you want to explain your process. Go ahead. But you hesitating to do so says nothing about me.

And considerig very few people are active today I'm certainly not avoiding this confrontation or "hiding".

So, I'll re-ask what process has reach you to this conclusion?
 

*Splinter

Member
List of Players:
[f] melonrabbit
[m] StanleyPalmtree
[m] gryvan
[m] Rats Off to Ya switcher
[m] Trigger cleared by cop
[m] *Splinter world's sexiest miller
[m] Royal_Flush cleared by cop
[f] StarSketch Danny Phantom
[m] Ty4on cleared by cop
[m] Matt Attack towniest town 2016
[m] ultron87
[m] Karkador mason-lite

Leaving my three stated suspects (conveniently grouped at the top there) and ultron (who I held in reserve).
 
Why would you say Matt Attack reads town for you? They've posted very inconsistently throughout the game, only have handful of times yesterday and didn't even submitted a vote.
 

ultron87

Member
Why are we trusting Rats so completely? Have we seen the effect of his switching occurring in someone's action that I'm forgetting?
 

Karkador

Banned
Why are we trusting Rats so completely? Have we seen the effect of his switching occurring in someone's action that I'm forgetting?

Nope, none that I remember. The problem is that if Rats is lying, it's possible that his switch list is completely false, including the people the Cop investigated. I think I buy Rats as Town if only because a scum Switcher in this situation would be fucked up.
 

Karkador

Banned
you have lynched more townies than anyone else, and yet you tried to deny that.

sure, you are not the only one here who has made mistakes, congratulations.
as should be obvious, im not bringing up anyone else because you are the person im accusing right now.

So you're accusing me of pushing and leading bad lynches...but you're using pretty desperate rhetoric (against my claims, which are implicitly confirmed by Danny Phantom's silence) to try to push exclusively on me.

We are about 24 hours away from Day End. If you're going to waste the rest of it by only accusing me, you're not helping, nor are you acting according to your own word.

well your just trying to make me repeat myself now arnt you?
you pushed harder for people to look at everyone else, hell you even bolded it.
see how when you bold something it gives puts a much greater emphasis on it? makes it stick with people more, right?

You're really going to die on this hill because of a bold tag?
 
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